Blog Post Title:Understanding Optimal Capital Structuring

Blog Post Title:Understanding Optimal Capital Structuring

Introduction


You're deciding a financing mix for a mid-to-large US company as you plan FY2025 moves, so let's be direct: optimal capital structure means the debt-equity mix that minimizes the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and still funds strategy and risk tolerance; it's not a theoretical target but a practical one. This matters because capital mix drives valuation (discount rates in DCFs), solvency (ability to meet obligations), flexibility (access to markets and covenant room), and ultimately shareholder returns - get the mix wrong and growth gets strained, not helped. This post will give you practical frameworks, key metrics (leverage ratios, interest coverage, cost-of-capital), trade-offs (tax shields vs. distress risk), and step-by-step execution for mid-to-large US companies, with FY2025 benchmarks to use as starting points: target debt/equity ranges around 0.3-1.5, typical corporate WACC ~6-10%, and optimization opportunities of 25-150 basis points of WACC improvement depending on credit profile. Here's the quick math: improve WACC by 100 bps and you can lift enterprise value materially on stable cash flows - what this estimate hides is company-specific cyclicality and covenant constraints, but it's a useful planning benchmark; defintely read on. Pick the right mix so financing helps growth, not strains it.


Key Takeaways


  • Optimal capital structure minimizes WACC while funding strategy and respecting risk - practical target debt/equity ~0.3-1.5 and typical corporate WACC ~6-10%.
  • Use core metrics (Debt/EBITDA, Net Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage) as guardrails; industry and covenant thresholds determine acceptable ranges.
  • Debt delivers tax shields but increases distress, refinancing, and agency risks-weigh 25-150 bps potential WACC improvement against operational vulnerability.
  • Find your band with scenario DCFs (base/downside/upside across 3-5 leverage points), stress tests, and peer Net Debt/EBITDA/credit-spread comparison.
  • Implement with a capital policy: set target band, minimum liquidity (e.g., 6-12 months OPEX), covenant rules, hedging limits, and a monthly debt dashboard plus quarterly reviews.


Core concepts and metrics


You're sizing capital structure for a mid-to-large US company; here's the short takeaway: anchor decisions on WACC, set industry-aligned leverage bands, and enforce coverage guardrails so financing helps growth, not strains it.

WACC (weighted average cost of capital): how to compute and why it's the anchor


WACC is the blended after-tax cost of financing - the discount rate for valuation and the metric that decides whether new projects add value. Compute it as

WACC = (E / (D+E)) × Re + (D / (D+E)) × Rd × (1 - Tc), where Re is cost of equity, Rd is pre-tax cost of debt, and Tc is the company tax rate.

Practical steps

  • Estimate Re with CAPM: Re = Rf + beta × ERP (equity risk premium). Use the 10-year US Treasury as Rf; in 2025 that rate sits near 4.5%, and a working ERP of 5.5% is common for US large-cap analysis.
  • Derive beta from peers, de-lever to unlevered beta, then re-lever to the Company Name target capital structure.
  • Set Rd from recent bond yields or bank term-sheet spreads for the relevant credit rating; for example, an A/BBB issuer in 2025 might see Rd near 4.5%-6.0% pre-tax depending on tenor.
  • Use the marginal tax rate (federal + state) - example 21%-25% effective - for the (1 - Tc) factor.
  • Run a sensitivity table: vary Re ±1.0% and Rd ±200 bps and show WACC impact across leverage points.

Quick example: Equity = 70%, Debt = 30%, Re = 10%, Rd = 5%, Tc = 21%. Here's the quick math: WACC = 0.70×0.10 + 0.30×0.05×(1-0.21) = 8.19%. What this hides: small changes in Re or Rd shift WACC materially; defintely stress-test.

One-liner: WACC tells you if financing costs leave room for real returns.

Leverage ratios: Debt/EBITDA, Net Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity - target ranges by industry


Leverage ratios convert strategy into a number you can control and communicate. Use Gross Debt and Net Debt (= total debt - cash) consistently, and include finance leases and pension deficits where material.

Industry target ranges (mid-to-large US companies, 2025 context)

  • High-growth tech / SaaS: Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0-1.0x, Debt/Equity 0.0-0.5x.
  • Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals: Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0-3.0x, Debt/Equity 0.5-1.5x.
  • Consumer staples / Retail: Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0-4.0x, Debt/Equity 0.8-2.0x.
  • Industrials / Capital goods: Net Debt/EBITDA 1.5-3.5x, Debt/Equity 0.7-1.5x.
  • Utilities / Telecom: Net Debt/EBITDA 3.0-6.0x, Debt/Equity 1.5-3.0x.
  • High-yield / PE-backed: Net Debt/EBITDA commonly 4.0-7.0x (shorter cycles, higher risk tolerated).

Best practices and steps

  • Normalize EBITDA: remove one-offs, use last-twelve-months (LTM) and a run-rate forward 12 months.
  • Adjust debt: add operating leases (ASC 842), letters of credit, and pension deficits to gross debt for like-for-like peer comparisons.
  • Calculate Net Debt precisely: total gross debt minus unrestricted cash - example: gross debt $1.2bn, cash $200m, EBITDA $500m → Net Debt/EBITDA = (1,200-200)/500 = 2.0x.
  • Benchmark to peers and the debt market: target the median plus/minus one band to remain defensible to rating agencies and banks.

One-liner: Metrics translate strategy into guardrails.

Coverage metrics: Interest Coverage, Fixed Charge Coverage - minimum thresholds to avoid covenant breach


Coverage ratios measure the cash cushion to pay fixed financing costs. They're where covenant breaches show up first, so set thresholds and headroom deliberately.

Definitions and thresholds (practical minimums in 2025 market conditions)

  • Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) = EBIT / Interest expense. Investment-grade targets: > 4.0x. Bank/leveraged finance minimums often: > 2.0-3.0x.
  • Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio (FCCR) = (EBIT + lease expense + other fixed charges) / (interest + lease + other fixed charges). Minimum covenants commonly: > 1.25-1.5x.
  • Suggested covenant headroom: keep actual coverage at least 0.5-1.0x above maintenance covenants to absorb shocks.

Practical steps

  • Stress-test coverage: model EBITDA declines of 20-40%, and interest rate shocks of +300 bps for floating-rate debt.
  • Build a covenant matrix: list each facility, linked covenant, calculation period, and cure mechanics.
  • Simulate covenant triggers rolling 12-month and pro-forma (M&A, dividend, buyback) impacts.

Quick example: EBIT = $200m, interest = $40m → ICR = 5.0x. If floating-rate moves raise interest to $55m, ICR falls to 3.64x - immediate red flag if the covenant floor is 3.5x.

One-liner: Keep coverage comfortably above covenant floors to avoid disruptive work-outs.

Action: Finance - run LTM and downside coverage tables and deliver a dashboard with Net Debt/EBITDA, ICR, and FCCR by close of business Friday; include lease-adjusted and pro-forma scenarios (owner: Finance FP&A).


Trade-offs: tax shields, distress costs, and agency effects


Takeaway: Debt buys a predictable tax shield but raises expected distress costs and governance frictions, so you should model both sides and pick the leverage band where the net expected benefit is positive. You're choosing between cheaper after-tax capital and a higher chance of operational disruption-quantify, stress-test, and set clear guardrails.

Tax shield: quantify the benefit versus the risk


Start with the simple formula: the annual tax shield equals interest expense times the corporate tax rate. For planning, convert that into a present value using your WACC or the cost of debt as the discount rate.

Here's the quick math with a concrete example: if you add $500,000,000 of debt at an average coupon of 5%, interest is $25,000,000 per year. At a federal tax rate of 21% the annual tax shield is $5,250,000. Discounting that stream over 5-10 years at a cost of debt of 5% gives a present value in the mid tens of millions - not always material relative to enterprise value.

Steps to quantify and use the shield in decisions:

  • Calculate interest schedule by tranche.
  • Apply marginal tax rate (federal + state net-of-deductions).
  • Discount shields at cost of debt or a conservative rate.
  • Compare PV shield to increased expected distress cost (next section).
  • Run sensitivity: +/- 200 bps rates, +/- 5% tax rate assumptions.

Best practices: capitalize only predictable shields; don't count one-off or timing-only benefits. If you expect full expensing or carryforwards, adjust the usable shield down - it's easy to overstate the benefit.

Distress and bankruptcy costs: direct and indirect impacts


Distress costs come as direct legal and restructuring fees and indirect losses like lost customers, higher supplier pricing, and missed investments. Model them as expected costs: probability of distress times loss severity.

Example framework: assume a 5% annual probability of distress under one leverage scenario and a loss severity of 30% of enterprise value if distressed. Expected annualized cost = probability × severity = 1.5% of EV. If EV is $4,000,000,000, that's an expected drag of $60,000,000 per year - far larger than many simple tax-shield calculations.

Practical steps to estimate distress costs:

  • Build a 3-5 year cash-flow waterfall and identify tails where coverage ratios fall below covenant levels.
  • Estimate distress probability using stress tests, credit-spread implied probabilities, or ratings migration tables.
  • Estimate loss severity from comparable bankruptcies or management surveys (lost customers, margin compression, supplier demands).
  • Compute expected cost = probability × severity and compare to PV of tax shields.

Mitigations that reduce expected costs: stagger maturities, keep 6-12 months of OPEX as liquidity, build contingent facilities, and use covenants that trigger early remediation (not sudden acceleration). Defintely stress these in the base case and downside scenarios.

Agency effects: shareholder preferences versus management risk aversion


Debt changes incentives. Shareholders often prefer more debt because it amplifies equity returns (leverage effect) and disciplines managers; managers may resist because higher leverage increases personal career risk and limits investment optionality.

Common agency frictions and practical fixes:

  • Risk-shifting: shareholders push risky projects. Mitigate with explicit investment approval thresholds.
  • Underinvestment: managers avoid positive-NPV projects when covenants bind. Mitigate by defining permitted investments and carve-outs.
  • Short-termism: focus on near-term cash. Mitigate with multi-year performance pay and capital allocation rules.
  • Private benefits: managers inflate capex or acquisitions. Mitigate with stronger board review and independent audit triggers.

Governance checklist to align incentives:

  • Set an explicit capital policy with target Net Debt/EBITDA band and override rules.
  • Use covenant design that protects creditors while preserving investment flexibility (e.g., EBITDA addbacks, limited incurrence covenants, cash-sweep triggers).
  • Link executive compensation to long-term metrics (ROIC, free cash flow) and vesting that survives financing events.
  • Consider hybrid instruments (convertibles, preferred) to share upside and reduce immediate cash strain.

Action: Finance should model the impact of proposed leverage on executive pay outcomes and approval gates, then propose two charter amendments by the next board meeting.

Debt buys tax savings but raises operational risk.


Frameworks to find your target range


You're deciding a defensible leverage band so financing helps growth, not strains it. The direct takeaway: combine scenario DCFs, targeted stress tests, and market comps to define a target range tied to WACC, covenant safety, and refinancing windows.

Scenario DCFs


Start by building an unlevered DCF and then re-lever around several financing cases so you can see how interest expense, tax shields, and equity risk change the math. Use a five- to ten-year explicit forecast, a terminal-growth assumption in the 2-3% range, and model at least three scenarios - base, downside, upside - across three to five leverage bands (example bands: 0-1x, 1-2x, 2-3x, 3-4x, 4-6x Net Debt/EBITDA).

Practical steps:

  • Build unlevered free cash flow (UFCF) run through year 5-10.
  • Choose terminal method (Gordon or exit multiple) and a terminal-growth 2-3%.
  • For each leverage band, update weights of debt/equity and compute WACC.
  • Recompute cost of equity using a levering formula (e.g., Hamada) so beta rises as debt increases.
  • Include tax shield by using after-tax cost of debt and explicit interest in cashflow waterfall.

Here's the quick math example: if cost of equity is 10%, after-tax cost of debt 4%, equity weight 70%, debt weight 30%, WACC = 0.710% + 0.34% = 8.2%. If debt increases to 40% and equity cost rises to 12%, WACC = 0.612% + 0.44% = 8.8%, so more debt raised WACC not lowered.

Best practices: test a downside with at least a -20% cashflow shock and an upside with +10-20% growth; keep assumptions transparent; document how taxes, working capital, and capex change under each band. One-liner: Model multiple leverage cases so you see when debt lowers WACC and when it backfires.

Stress tests


Stress tests translate the DCF picture into operational survival. Focus on cashflow shocks, rate shocks, and covenant breaching paths so you can see when liquidity or refinancing becomes a crisis. Run a set of deterministic stresses and a Monte Carlo if you have the capability.

Concrete stress scenarios to run:

  • Cashflow shock: base -20%, severe -40%.
  • Rate shock: +200-300 basis points to floating rates; +100-200 bps on new fixed-rate debt repricing.
  • Maturity shock: cluster test where > 50% of debt matures inside 24 months.
  • Covenant paths: project Interest Coverage and Net Debt/EBITDA monthly/quarterly to triggers.

Key thresholds and actions: keep Interest Coverage above 3x as a practical buffer for mid-to-large firms; build a liquidity run-rate that covers 6-12 months of OPEX plus committed undrawn facilities; if a stress drops coverage below maintenance covenant levels, predefine actions (capex deferral, asset sales, covenant waiver negotiation). Model waterfall impacts from covenant breach: mandatory prepayments, higher coupon, or accelerated amortization.

Best practices: stress operating working capital (AR collections, inventory days), include parent-level intercompany flows, and show probability-weighted P&L and balance-sheet outcomes. One-liner: Stress tests reveal the operational cliff edges you must avoid.

Market approach


Peers and market pricing give a reality check and legal defensibility. The aim is to map the company's adjusted leverage to a market-implied credit standing and to pick a band that gives a spread buffer versus peers.

Step-by-step market approach:

  • Assemble a peer set of 10-25 firms matched by revenue growth, margin, capital intensity, and business risk.
  • Normalize balance sheets: convert operating leases to debt, add pension deficits, subtract excess cash to compute adjusted Net Debt.
  • Calculate median and quartile Net Debt/EBITDA and Debt/EBITDA for the peer set.
  • Collect market spreads: bond yields, secondary trading yields, or CDS where available; map those spreads to S&P/Moody's rating bands to infer an implied rating.
  • Translate the target rating back to a target Net Debt/EBITDA band using the peer distribution and set a buffer (e.g., target band ends 50 bps inside the peer median spread).

Concrete example: if your normalized peer median Net Debt/EBITDA is 2.5x and peers trade at an average spread of 180 bps, consider a target band of 1.5-3.5x for room to absorb shocks and to stay no worse than one notch below median market pricing. Best practices: refresh peer metrics quarterly, disclose adjustments, and use market-implied spreads to time issuance windows; if your company is structural cash-generative, bias lower in the band. One-liner: Use scenarios plus peers to define a defensible target band.


Choosing instruments and timing


You're picking financing that should help growth, not create a refinancing headache. Quick takeaway: match debt tenor to asset life, hedge the interest-rate exposure you cannot stomach, and use equity instruments only when dilution or dividend cost is preferable to restrictive covenants.

Short vs long debt: match tenor to asset life and cash-cycle needs


Start by mapping cash flows: list major capex items, their weighted-average useful life, and the company's operating cash-cycle in months. Use that to set target tenor bands.

  • Define short-term debt as under 5 years and long-term as 7-30 years.
  • Match term loans to asset life: finance a 15-year plant with 10-15 year debt; avoid 3-year bullets for 15-year assets.
  • Match working-capital facilities to cash-cycle needs: revolvers sized for 6-12 months of working capital.
  • Target average maturity based on industry: conservative corporates aim for 5-7 years; cyclical firms skew longer to reduce rollover risk.

Practical steps: (1) produce a maturity ladder; (2) limit any single 24-month window to max 20-30% of total debt; (3) build a 12-24 month refinancing playbook for each significant maturity. Here's the quick math: a concentrated $500M maturity in 18 months with no facility is immediate refinancing risk-stress that first.

Fixed vs floating rate: hedge interest-rate risk selectively


Decide how much rate volatility you can absorb, then apply hedges. Use fixed rates to lock predictable cost; keep floating where flexibility and lower initial coupons matter.

  • Set a policy hedge band: conservative = 70-100% fixed, balanced = 40-70%, aggressive = 0-40%.
  • Use interest-rate swaps to convert floating to fixed for specific tenors: short swaps (3-7 years) for working capital; long swaps (7-15 years) for term debt.
  • Use caps (options) when you want upside from falling rates but protection above a trigger; buy caps for the next 12-36 months during known refinancing windows.
  • Always stress-test a parallel upward shift: a 200 bps (2%) rise on a $500M floating book increases annual interest by $10M.

Practical steps: (1) quantify annual P&L exposure to +100/200/300 bps moves; (2) pick a hedge % by board-approved appetite; (3) stagger swap maturities to avoid single-date unwind; (4) document accounting (ASC 815) and collateral triggers. What this estimate hides: swap collateral calls can amplify liquidity needs during rate spikes, so model that scenario too.

Equity options: convertibles, preferreds, or straight equity for flexibility


Equity instruments trade dilution and dividend burden against covenant relief and balance-sheet strength. Pick based on growth profile, market windows, and shareholder tolerance for dilution.

  • Convertibles: lower coupon than straight debt-typically 2-4 percentage points lower-at the expense of potential dilution; conversion premiums often run 20-40%.
  • Preferreds: non-voting or limited voting, pay fixed dividends often in the mid-to-high single digits; use if you want non-amortizing capital without immediate dilution.
  • Straight equity: removes leverage and covenant risk but dilutes EPS and ownership; good for high-growth firms or when market equity valuations are rich.
  • Hybrid play: use a small convertible tranche to reduce near-term interest expense while keeping most debt fixed for covenants.

Practical steps: (1) run a waterfall: cash cost vs dilution for each option over 3-7 years; (2) model worst-case conversion dilution at low stock prices; (3) negotiate conversion caps and anti-dilution clauses; (4) get shareholder governance sign-off before issuance. Example quick math: $200M via preferred at 7% costs $14M/year in dividends vs $200M bank debt at 8.5% costing $17M/year but brings amortization and covenants-pick based on liquidity and covenant tolerance.

Match instrument to risk profile and refinancing windows.

Finance: build a three-scenario instrument mix (conservative, balanced, opportunistic) and present recommended hedges and tenors to the CFO by Friday; defintely include cash-collateral stress tests.


Implementation checklist and governance


Quick takeaway: you need a short, written capital policy, tight covenant design, and a liquidity buffer sized to survive shocks - then enforce them with clear approvals. Get these three right and financing becomes a tool, not a surprise.

Capital policy: set target range, override rules, and approval thresholds


You're setting the guardrails for every financing decision - aim for a simple written policy the board signs. Start with a target leverage band (Net Debt/EBITDA) and a secondary interest-coverage floor, then map approvals to bands and dollar amounts.

Steps to implement:

  • Define target band (e.g., Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0-3.0)
  • Set coverage floor (e.g., EBITDA/Interest ≥ 3.0x)
  • Specify approval matrix by action and size
  • Require Board sign-off for out-of-band moves
  • Mandate quarterly policy review and annual stress re-test

Practical thresholds (examples): require CFO+Treasurer approval for incremental debt up to $50m, CEO approval for $50-100m, and Board approval above $100m or >10% market-cap issuance. Here's the quick math: if run-rate EBITDA = $400m (example), a 1.5-2.5 Net Debt/EBITDA band implies Net Debt of $600m-$1,000m. What this hides: industry norms and cash-conversion cycles should shift those bands - use peers and stress tests to refine.

One-liner: Keep the policy short, measurable, and owned at the top.

Covenant design: prefer maintenance covenants only when necessary


Maintenance covenants require periodic tests and can trigger defaults during temporary hits; incurrence covenants (they limit actions like acquisitions or dividends) are often more flexible for mid-to-large companies. Negotiate for incurrence-first, maintenance-only when lenders demand it, and always build meaningful headroom.

Design and negotiation checklist:

  • Prefer incurrence covenants over maintenance covenants
  • When used, set maintenance tests with 20-30% headroom versus forecast
  • Set Interest Coverage minimum (example: ≥ 3.0x)
  • Set Leverage covenant (example: Net Debt/EBITDA 3.5x-4.5x)
  • Include EBITDA add-backs, seasonal testing, and cure periods
  • Avoid automatic collateral triggers for routine covenant misses

Negotiation tactics: model covenant outcomes under a 20-30% revenue shock, ask for measurement holidays, and require at least a 60-90 day cure window. Lenders may accept tighter covenants if you give pricing flexibility; be explicit which actions trigger lender consent (M&A, dividends, change of control). Don't defintely accept a collateral step-in clause without a sunset.

One-liner: Design covenants to constrain excess risk, not to strangle normal volatility.

Liquidity buffer: set minimum cash + undrawn facilities


Liquidity prevents fire sales and bad refinancing timing. A practical rule: hold combined cash plus committed undrawn credit equal to 6-12 months of operating expense (OPEX), adjusted for upcoming maturities and discretionary capex.

How to size and govern the buffer:

  • Calculate rolling 13-week cash flow
  • Multiply monthly OPEX by 6-12 months based on business volatility
  • Include committed revolver capacity in the buffer
  • Stress-test buffer under a 30% revenue drop and no fresh financing
  • Set monitoring cadence: weekly 13-week, monthly dashboard, quarterly board review

Here's the quick math: if OPEX = $200m/yr (example), monthly OPEX ≈ $16.7m; a 6-month buffer = $100m. What this estimate hides: near-term receipts (AR concentration), working-capital seasonality, and debt maturities - adjust buffer upward if maturities cluster inside 24 months.

One-liner: Clear rules and monitoring prevent surprises.

Next step and owner: Finance: draft the 13-week cash view, run three-scenario DCFs, and deliver a recommended target leverage band and covenant request list by Friday.


Conclusion


You're closing the capital-structure review for FY2025 and need a tight, executable set of steps so financing helps growth instead of straining it. Run three leverage DCFs, set a defensible target band, tighten covenants where needed, and lock hedging limits - fast.

Quick action list


Direct takeaway: run a three-scenario leverage DCF (base, downside, upside) across pre-set leverage bands and deliver a recommended band with sensitivities.

  • Run three DCFs - base, downside (-20% EBITDA), upside (+15% EBITDA)
  • Test leverage bands: Net Debt/EBITDA at 0.5x, 2.5x, 4.0x
  • Set WACC inputs: cost of equity (CAPM) and after-tax cost of debt
  • Calculate after-tax cost of debt = interest rate × (1 - tax rate); example: 6.0% × (1 - 21%) = 4.74%
  • Produce outcomes: equity value, credit spreads, and covenant breach probability
  • Owner: Modeling (Finance FP&A); due: November 28, 2025

One-liner: Pick the band that preserves value under the downside DCF and keeps covenant headroom.

Measurement: dashboard and reviews


Direct takeaway: implement a monthly debt dashboard and quarterly capital-policy review so risks surface before they become shocks.

  • Monthly dashboard items: Cash, undrawn RCF, Total Debt, Scheduled maturities (0-12, 12-24, 24-60 months)
  • Include ratios: Net Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest), Fixed Charge Coverage
  • Set thresholds: Interest Coverage minimum 3.0x; Net Debt/EBITDA alert at > 3.5x
  • Liquidity buffer: minimum cash + undrawn facilities = 6-12 months OPEX
  • Reporting cadence: dashboard monthly; capital-policy review quarterly with Treasury and Legal

Here's the quick math: if EBITDA = $200m and Net Debt = $600m, Net Debt/EBITDA = 3.0x - trigger review if above 3.5x. What this estimate hides: seasonal working capital swings can push short-term leverage higher.

One-liner: Metrics translate strategy into guardrails, not box-checking.

Refinancing risk, mitigations, and next step (owner)


Direct takeaway: refinancing risk spikes when large tranches cluster inside 24 months; mitigate immediately and assign clear ownership.

  • Rule of thumb: flag risk if > 30% of principal matures inside 24 months
  • Example: total debt $1,200m, maturing within 24 months $400m33% concentrated → action required
  • Mitigations: stagger maturities, extend with term-outs, pre-fund with revolver, issue long debt or equity, add committed backstops
  • Hedge policy: cap unhedged floating-rate exposure to 50% beyond 12 months; authorize swaps only above that
  • Covenant design: prefer incurrence covenants; where maintenance covenants exist, increase headroom and add cure mechanics

Risk note: refinancing risk rises materially if maturities cluster inside 24 months and cash + undrawn facilities < strong>6 months OPEX - act before markets tighten. (Yes, defintely prioritize this.)

Next step and owner: Finance - run the three-scenario DCFs (base, downside, upside), stress the bands above, and deliver a recommended target Net Debt/EBITDA band and a one-page mitigation plan by Friday, November 28, 2025.


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