Breaking Down Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

Curious whether Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) is a value play or a cash-flow risk? In Q3 2025 the company posted revenue of 10.46 billion CNY (up 2.47% year‑over‑year) and net income of 1.20 billion CNY (up 23.74% y/y), yet its trailing‑12‑month revenue fell to 35.10 billion CNY (down 6.51% y/y) while TTM EBITDA strengthened to 2.14 billion CNY (+32.05% y/y); balance‑sheet metrics show total assets of 100.29 billion CNY against liabilities of 51.40 billion CNY and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.91, but a net cash position of negative 21.18 billion CNY and negative free cash flow of 571.89 million CNY on operating cash flow of 6.75 billion CNY and capex of 7.32 billion CNY-valuation paints a mixed picture too, with a market cap around 31.74 billion CNY, a P/E near 8.9, EV/EBITDA ~10.13, P/B ~0.63 and a modest dividend yield of 1.19%-all against risks from coal‑price swings, interest costs and policy changes and growth levers from six new coal units under construction and expanding renewables exposure.

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Revenue Analysis

• Q3 2025 revenue: 10.46 billion CNY (+2.47% vs Q3 2024)
• TTM revenue: 35.10 billion CNY (-6.51% YoY)
• 2024 annual revenue: 36.93 billion CNY (+6.83% vs 2023)
• Revenue per employee: ~6.16 million CNY (5,693 employees)
• Market capitalization: 31.09 billion CNY; P/S ratio: 0.89

• The modest Q3 2025 increase (10.46B CNY) shows near-term resilience but the 6.51% TTM revenue decline highlights weakening momentum when comparing the latest 12 months to the prior year.
• 2024's full-year growth (36.93B CNY, +6.83%) contrasts with the TTM contraction, suggesting 2025 revenue timing or selectivity in orders/segments affected current rolling results.
• Revenue per employee (~6.16M CNY) indicates relatively high workforce productivity; however, sustaining top-line growth will be critical to maintain this metric and the market's valuation (P/S 0.89).

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Profitability Metrics

Key profitability indicators for Q3 2025 and trailing twelve months (TTM) provide a snapshot of Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd.'s operational performance and shareholder returns.

• Net income (Q3 2025): 1.20 billion CNY (up 23.74% YoY)
• Net profit margin (Q3 2025): 11.45%
• EBITDA (Q3 2025): 2.14 billion CNY (up 32.05% YoY)
• Operating income (Q3 2025): 970 million CNY (up 14.4% YoY)
• Operating margin (Q3 2025): 13.38%
• EPS (TTM): 0.94 CNY; P/E ratio: 8.33

Contextual notes:

• Revenue mix and cost controls appear to be supporting higher margins and EBITDA expansion.
• P/E of 8.33 relative to EPS of 0.94 CNY suggests valuation metrics attractive for value-oriented investors, subject to balance sheet and cash-flow review.
• Operating margin at 13.38% points to improved operational efficiency compared with prior periods, complementing the rise in operating income.

Further company background and strategic context can be found here: Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) Debt vs. Equity Structure

• The balance between liabilities (51.40 bn) and equity (48.89 bn) produces a debt-to-equity of 0.91, indicating leverage just below parity.
• A current ratio of 1.12 suggests adequate short-term asset coverage of liabilities, but the quick ratio of 0.93 flags weaker immediate liquidity once inventories are excluded.
• Interest coverage at 3.88 shows earnings are covering interest expense by nearly four times, providing a modest buffer against rising rates or earnings pressure.
• The negative net cash position of -21.18 bn underscores reliance on external debt financing despite sizeable asset and equity bases.

Key implications for investors:

• Leverage profile: moderate - the 0.91 ratio is not aggressive but combined with negative net cash indicates funding dependency on borrowings.
• Liquidity watch: quick ratio below 1.0 warrants monitoring of working-capital management and receivables/inventory conversion cycles.
• Coverage resilience: interest coverage near 4 provides some cushion, but deterioration in operating income would tighten that margin quickly.

Context and further reading: Exploring Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Liquidity and Solvency

• Cash and short-term investments: 18.73 billion CNY (down 3.06% YoY)
• Operating cash flow (TTM): 6.75 billion CNY
• Capital expenditures (TTM): 7.32 billion CNY
• Free cash flow (TTM): -571.89 million CNY
• Working capital: 3.10 billion CNY

• Positive operating cash flow of 6.75 billion CNY indicates underlying business cash generation, but capex of 7.32 billion CNY produced a modest negative free cash flow (-571.89 million CNY) over the trailing twelve months.
• Cash reserves near 18.73 billion CNY provide a buffer for short-term obligations despite a slight YoY decline.
• Working capital of 3.10 billion CNY signals adequate operational liquidity to support day-to-day activities.
• Profitability ratios (ROA 3.82%, ROE 10.19%) show effective asset and equity utilization; Q3 2025 net income growth (1.20 billion CNY, +23.74% YoY) supports earnings momentum while an effective tax rate of 12.19% keeps after-tax margins relatively stable.

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Valuation Analysis

• Market Capitalization: 31.74 billion CNY
• P/E Ratio: 8.92
• Enterprise Value (EV): 62.90 billion CNY
• EV/EBITDA: 10.13
• Price-to-Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price-to-Sales (P/S): 0.81
• Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF): Not applicable (negative free cash flow)
• Dividend Yield: 1.19% (annual dividend: 0.10 CNY per share)

Key valuation takeaways:

• The P/E of 8.92 indicates earnings are priced conservatively relative to peers in similar sectors.
• A P/B of 0.63 suggests the market values the company below its book value, implying potential undervaluation or balance-sheet concerns.
• EV/EBITDA at 10.13 positions the company in a moderate valuation band-neither deeply discounted nor richly valued on an enterprise basis.
• P/S of 0.81 shows the stock is trading below one times sales, which can be attractive for revenue-driven valuation approaches.
• Negative free cash flow removes P/FCF as a usable metric and highlights operating or investment cash strain that investors should investigate.
• The modest dividend yield (1.19%, 0.10 CNY/ share) provides some income, but is secondary to capital appreciation given current cash-flow dynamics.

For additional corporate context, refer to the company history and structure: Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Risk Factors

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) faces a mix of commodity, market, financial, operational and regulatory risks that materially affect cash flow stability, margins and valuation. Below is a focused breakdown of the primary risks, their mechanisms, and quantitative sensitivities where available.

• Commodity price risk: coal price volatility directly affects fuel cost for thermal units and gross margins.
• Electricity price & policy risk: reductions in feed‑in tariffs or market reform can lower realized power prices.
• Interest rate & refinancing risk: higher rates increase debt servicing costs and refinancing burden.
• Operational risk: construction/commissioning delays or availability shortfalls reduce expected generation and revenue.
• Regulatory & environmental risk: tighter emissions rules or new permitting requirements increase capex/O&M or limit operations.
• Competition risk: regional capacity additions and merchant power sellers can pressure spot prices and contract renewals.

Key quantitative indicators (latest available / approximate):

Risk transmission channels and practical impacts:

• Coal price swings: A sustained 20% rise in thermal coal prices can reduce operating margins materially; without full pass‑through via tariffs/PPA indexing, EBITDA could fall by double digits percentage points in a year.
• Feed‑in tariff reductions: Policy adjustments or reallocation of subsidies can lower contracted prices; if 10-15% of tariff is reduced, annual revenue from affected units could decline proportionally.
• Interest rate increases: With a net debt/EBITDA around the 2-3x range, a 100 bps rise in effective borrowing costs can increase annual interest expense by tens to hundreds of millions RMB depending on debt size and hedges.
• Commissioning delays: Project delays extend capital outlay schedules and push forward break‑even dates; each 6‑month delay on a large thermal unit can add meaningful carrying costs and lost revenue.
• Regulatory tightening: New emissions limits or retrofits increase capex; compliance capex for desulfurization/denitrification/particulate controls can run into hundreds of millions RMB per unit depending on age and scale.
• Competition: Increased regional capacity and merchant sellers depress spot prices, pressuring merchant revenue and bargaining leverage for new PPAs.

Mitigants the company can employ:

• Fuel hedging and diversified fuel mix to dampen coal price shocks.
• Long‑term PPAs and tariff indexation clauses to protect contract revenue.
• Interest rate swaps and diversified refinancing timelines to reduce short‑term re‑pricing risk.
• Robust project management and contingency buffers to limit commissioning slippage.
• Proactive environmental capex planning to phase compliance costs and avoid abrupt shutdowns.
• Strategic growth in renewables/cleaner generation to reduce exposure to coal and policy risk.

For a complementary investor view and holder composition details, see: Exploring Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ) - Growth Opportunities

• Six coal-fired power units currently under construction - expected to add meaningful incremental capacity and near-term earnings as they commission.
• Active expansion into renewable energy projects, broadening the company's generation mix and aligning with longer-term decarbonization trends.
• Thermal power outlook supported by falling coal prices, which should improve margins for existing and newly commissioned units during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
• Strong local electricity demand: Jiangsu province recorded a 12.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in Q3 2024, outpacing the national average and underpinning volumetric growth.

• Valuation: A P/E of 8.92 combined with 31.74 billion CNY market cap suggests potential upside if earnings from new units and improved margins materialize.
• Income component: The 0.10 CNY annual dividend (1.19% yield) provides steady cash return while growth projects mature.
• Growth timing: Earnings visibility hinges on commissioning schedules for the six coal units and the pace of renewable project rollouts during the 14th Five-Year Plan.