Exploring ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're watching ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) and trying to reconcile the mixed Q3 2025 results with the overwhelming institutional ownership-a classic financial analyst's dilemma, honestly. The direct takeaway is this: the smart money is buying the backlog, not the current headline revenue. While the company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $465.4 million, which was a slight miss due to a drop in federal government contracts, its commercial revenue is up 20.9%, a clear signal of where the future lies. With institutional investors holding a staggering 94.12% of the stock, major players like Blackrock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. are defintely staking their claim on the firm's substantial $3.5 billion total backlog, which is the long-term visibility (a clear view of future income) they crave. The big funds are betting on the energy transition, so the near-term volatility from government spending is just noise. What does this high-conviction profile mean for your next investment decision?

Who Invests in ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) and Why?

The investor base for ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is overwhelmingly institutional, meaning large funds and asset managers control the stock. This is a classic profile for a government and commercial services contractor: the investment thesis is built on long-term, predictable contract backlogs and a recent pivot toward high-growth commercial energy markets to offset federal volatility.

As of late 2025, institutional investors and hedge funds hold approximately 94.12% of the company's stock, controlling a total of over 22.2 million shares. This leaves a relatively small float for retail investors, who are typically passive holders or follow the lead of the major institutions. It's a stock where the big money drives the price action, so you need to understand their playbook.

• Institutional Investors: The dominant force, including mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds.
• Insider Owners: Executives and directors, who own a small, but impactful, stake of about 1.39%.
• Retail Investors: Hold the remaining, small float, often via index funds or for dividend income.

Key Investor Types and Their Holdings

When you see institutional ownership this high, you know the stock is a core holding for many large, diversified portfolios. The top holders are names you recognize, like Wasatch Advisors Inc., BlackRock, Inc., and Vanguard Group Inc., which collectively manage billions in assets. These firms are primarily passive or long-term growth investors, not short-term traders. They buy into the company's strategic direction, not just the next quarter's earnings beat.

Here's a quick look at the major institutional players as of the third quarter of 2025, which filed their holdings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Form 13F:

The presence of both active managers (like Wasatch) and passive giants (like BlackRock and Vanguard) means the stock has both fundamental support and index-driven demand. The insiders, like Director Randall Mehl, also showed confidence by purchasing shares in November 2025, a classic signal of management believing the stock is undervalued.

Investment Motivations: Why the Big Money is Buying

The core motivation for holding ICF International, Inc. is its position as a diversified, mission-critical consultant, especially its successful pivot to non-federal work. The company is a growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) play, balancing steady government work with high-growth commercial segments. The short-term picture is messy-Q3 2025 revenue was $465.4 million, down from the prior year, and non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.67, missing consensus estimates. Still, the long-term story holds.

The real draw is the company's massive contract pipeline and its shift in revenue mix. The total backlog remains robust at $3.5 billion, with a funded backlog of $1.9 billion, providing excellent revenue visibility. Plus, the commercial and international segments are now driving growth, representing 57% of Q3 2025 revenue, up significantly from the prior year.

• Commercial Energy Growth: Commercial energy revenue jumped 24.3% year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by demand for energy efficiency and grid resilience services. That's a huge tailwind.
• High Backlog Visibility: A $3.5 billion backlog and a strong Q3 book-to-bill ratio of 1.53 confirm future revenue streams.
• Value Proposition: Analysts see a significant upside, with fair value estimates ranging from $103.25 to over $127.10, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value.
• Dividend Income: The company's consistent quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share, declared in October 2025, provides a small but reliable income stream for total return investors.

Investment Strategies in Play

You see three primary strategies at work with ICF International, Inc. investors: long-term growth, value investing, and a specialized focus on government/utility exposure.

1. Long-Term Holding (Growth & Income): The large asset managers, like Vanguard and BlackRock, are essentially buying the long-term trend of IT modernization, public health, and energy efficiency consulting. They are willing to ride out short-term federal contract delays, knowing the firm's non-federal business is expanding rapidly. They are looking for consistent revenue growth over a five-to-ten-year horizon. This strategy is simple: buy and hold. If you want to dive deeper into the fundamentals, check out Breaking Down ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

2. Value Investing: The recent price decline, pushing the stock closer to its 52-week low, has attracted value-oriented investors. They see the Q3 2025 revenue and EPS miss as a temporary setback due to government procurement disruptions, not a fundamental flaw. Their thesis is that the market is mispricing the company's core assets-its expertise and its massive backlog. They are buying now, believing the stock will revert to its intrinsic value of over $100 per share.

3. Sector-Specific/Thematic Investing: Many investors are specifically targeting ICF International, Inc. for its exposure to government-mandated spending and utility consulting. The commercial energy division's 24% growth is a direct play on the massive utility spending on grid resilience and energy efficiency programs across the US. This is a defensive sector with a clear, regulatory-driven growth path. It's a great way to get exposure to the energy transition without the volatility of pure-play renewables.

Here's the quick math: the current market cap is around $1.41 billion, but the backlog alone is $3.5 billion. That gap is where the value investors see their opportunity. The near-term risk is defintely the ongoing federal contract delays, but the long-term opportunity in commercial energy is too strong for institutional money to ignore.

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)

If you're looking at ICF International, Inc. (ICFI), the first thing to grasp is that this is an institutionally-controlled stock. It's not a retail-driven play. Institutional investors and hedge funds own an overwhelming 99.23% of the company's total shares outstanding, which currently total around 18 million shares. This level of ownership means the big money-the mutual funds, pension funds, and asset managers-is essentially setting the price and the long-term direction, so you need to know who they are and what they're doing.

Top Institutional Investors and Their Shareholdings

The shareholder base of ICF International is dominated by a few massive asset managers, which is typical for a mid-cap government and commercial services provider. As of the third quarter of 2025 (ending September 30, 2025), the total value of institutional holdings stood at approximately $1,402 million. The top holders are primarily passive and active funds that anchor the stock with significant, long-term positions.

Here's a snapshot of the largest institutional investors and their holdings based on the latest filings:

You can see firms like Blackrock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. near the top. These are often index-tracking giants, meaning their holdings are less about a specific investment thesis on ICF International, Inc. and more about tracking the overall index the stock belongs to.

Recent Shifts: Where the Smart Money is Moving

Looking at the third quarter of 2025, the institutional activity was mixed, but the accumulation score suggests a net positive sentiment overall. A total of 151 institutions reported increasing their positions, while 112 reported decreasing them. This tells me that while some funds took profits or adjusted their index weightings, a larger number of institutions saw a buying opportunity.

The most notable recent moves include:

• Wasatch Advisors LP significantly boosted its stake, adding 374,609 shares.
• Capital Research Global Investors showed strong conviction, increasing its holding by 227,031 shares, a 16.446% change.
• Tributary Capital Management LLC made a massive move, increasing its shares by 127% to 464,584 shares.
• On the selling side, Blackrock, Inc. reduced its position by 41,171 shares, and Vanguard Group Inc. also slightly trimmed its stake by 9,561 shares.

This is a classic divergence: active managers like Wasatch are buying aggressively, seeing value, while some passive index funds like Vanguard are making minor adjustments. That's a signal that the stock is attracting dedicated institutional investors (those who intend to hold long-term) even as it experiences market-wide volatility.

The Impact of Institutional Ownership on Stock and Strategy

High institutional ownership-over 90%-is a double-edged sword for a company like ICF International, Inc. It generally leads to lower volatility, but it also means the stock is highly sensitive to large block trades. The stock's weekly volatility has been relatively stable at about 4% over the past year, which is a key benefit of this high institutional base.

Strategy and Governance:

These large, dedicated institutional holders act as a critical check on management. When a company misses expectations, as ICF International, Inc. did in Q3 2025 with diluted EPS of $1.28 versus a consensus of $1.75, these investors are the ones demanding accountability and clarity on strategy. Their presence encourages management to focus on long-term value creation, like the company's stated goal of capitalizing on growing demand for energy efficiency and technology services, despite near-term federal contract challenges. The recent insider purchase by a director, Randall Mehl, of 500 shares at $77.00 per share in November 2025, is a small but defintely meaningful gesture of executive confidence to this institutional base.

Stock Price and Valuation:

The high institutional floor provides a degree of price support, but it doesn't prevent a decline on bad news. The stock traded near its 52-week low of $72.03 following the Q3 earnings miss, down from a 52-week high of $141.51. However, the consensus analyst price target remains high at $112.75, representing a significant upside from the current price, which is a nod to the long-term value seen by the institutional community. The large institutional presence is a vote of confidence in the company's core business model, which you can read more about here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of ICF International, Inc. (ICFI).

Key Investors and Their Impact on ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)

You need to know who holds the biggest stake in ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) because their collective moves drive the stock's volatility and signal confidence in management's strategy. The short answer is that ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is overwhelmingly an institutionally-owned company, meaning a few massive funds dictate the market narrative.

As of the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2025, a staggering 94.12% of the company's stock is held by institutional investors and hedge funds. This is a critical factor for any investor, as it means the stock is highly sensitive to the large-scale buying and selling patterns of these financial behemoths. When they move, the stock moves. ICF International, Inc. (ICFI): History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money is a good place to start for background.

The Institutional Heavyweights: Who Owns ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)?

The investor profile of ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is dominated by the world's largest asset managers, often referred to as passive index funds or quantitative (quant) funds. They hold positions not necessarily because of a deep-dive, fundamental conviction, but because ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is a component of various market indices they track for clients. Still, their sheer size gives them enormous influence.

Here's the quick math on the top holders as of September 30, 2025, showing their massive positions and influence:

The influence of these major holders is less about activism and more about capital flow. They aren't pushing for a CEO change, but if a large index fund like BlackRock Inc. or Vanguard Group Inc. rebalances its portfolio, the resulting trade can create significant, defintely noticeable pressure on the stock price.

Recent Investor Moves and Market Reaction

Recent activity in 2025 shows a mixed picture, reflecting the market's reaction to the company's performance against a challenging federal government contracting environment.

The stock's movements are clearly tied to financial reports. For instance, after ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) reported its Q3 2025 earnings, which missed analyst consensus with revenue of $465.4 million versus the anticipated $484.2 million, the stock fell by 6.3% in the afternoon session. That's a clear example of institutional disappointment translating directly into a sharp price drop.

On the flip side, we saw some funds increasing their positions, signaling a belief that the stock is undervalued.

• Bank of New York Mellon Corp raised its stake in Q2 2025 by 4.8%, adding 3,906 shares to its holdings.
• Argent Capital Management LLC purchased an additional 10,028 shares in Q2, boosting its stake to 47,946 shares.
• Quantbot Technologies LP, a quant-focused fund, increased its position by 25.7% in Q1 2025, now holding 35,592 shares.

What this estimate hides is the internal selling. While institutional buying was present, some top holders were trimming their positions, and insider activity was also mixed. ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) COO James C. M. Morgan sold 2,400 shares in October 2025 for a total of $228,456.00, while Director Randall Mehl bought 500 shares in November 2025 for $39,070.00. Insider selling, even routine, can sometimes dampen investor enthusiasm.

The company itself is also a buyer of its own stock, which is a strong signal to investors. ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) repurchased 313,000 shares in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating management's confidence in their long-term growth outlook and their intention to deliver value to shareholders.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

The investor sentiment toward ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) is best described as cautiously neutral, leaning toward a 'Hold' consensus despite a significant institutional presence. You have to look past the day-to-day noise and see that institutional investors hold a massive 94.12% of the company's stock, which shows a deep-seated belief in the long-term consulting story.

Still, this isn't a 'Strong Buy' situation right now. Wall Street analysts, as of November 2025, maintain a consensus rating of 'Hold' for ICF International, Inc., with an average target price of $112.75. This rating reflects the current tension between the company's strong commercial growth drivers-like energy efficiency and IT modernization-and the near-term headwind of reduced federal government business. Honestly, the market is waiting for a clear inflection point before committing to a strong upward move.

Here's the quick math on the current valuation: a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests an intrinsic value of about $112.19 per share, implying the stock is trading at a 16.1% discount to its estimated fair value as of October 2025. That discount is the opportunity, but it's also a reflection of the risk. You have to weigh that potential upside against the forecast for 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of around $7.44, which is under pressure from those federal contract delays.

Recent Market Reactions to Ownership Shifts

The stock market has been very reactive to ICF International, Inc.'s recent financial performance, with large investor moves showing a mixed picture. The most immediate and negative reaction came after the Q3 2025 earnings report released on October 30, 2025, where the stock declined by 5.6% because both earnings and revenue missed consensus estimates.

The Q3 2025 results showed an EPS of $1.67, missing the consensus estimate of $1.75, and revenue of $465.41 million, a 10.0% year-over-year decline. That kind of miss defintely shakes short-term confidence. But, on the other side, you see insider buying, which is a powerful signal. Director Randall Mehl purchased 500 shares on the open market in November 2025 for a total of $38,500.00, showing executive confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

The institutional trading activity in Q3 2025 was also a mixed bag, which is typical when a company faces sector-specific headwinds. You saw big players adding shares while others pared back:

• Buyers: Wasatch Advisors LP added 374,609 shares and Tributary Capital Management, LLC added 259,581 shares.
• Sellers: Millennium Management LLC removed 279,483 shares and POINT72 ASSET MANAGEMENT, L.P. removed 262,113 shares.

Analyst Perspectives on Key Investor Impact

The sheer concentration of institutional ownership means that the actions of a few major holders-like Blackrock, Inc. or Wasatch Advisors LP-have a disproportionate impact on ICF International, Inc.'s stock stability and perceived value. Blackrock, Inc. holds a significant position of 1,773,097 shares as of September 30, 2025. When firms of this size maintain a position, it provides a floor of stability, signaling that the company's fundamentals align with their long-term investment mandates.

Analysts view the institutional commitment as a vote for ICF International, Inc.'s strategic shift toward commercial sectors, which is crucial for offsetting the current weaknesses in federal contracts. The company's focus on areas like public health, IT modernization, and energy efficiency is seen as the key to future margin expansion. For a deeper dive into the company's strategic direction, I recommend reviewing the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of ICF International, Inc. (ICFI).

The table below shows the top institutional holders as of the most recent filing date, September 30, 2025, highlighting who is driving the institutional ownership narrative:

What this table hides is the underlying conviction: the buyers are betting on the commercial and technology growth overcoming the federal slowdown, while the sellers are likely de-risking their portfolios in the face of near-term revenue uncertainty. The net effect is a 'Hold' consensus, but the smart money is watching the commercial revenue growth-which was up 20.9% in Q3 2025-to see if it can fully compensate for the federal contract issues. That segment is the real catalyst.