Exploring Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're looking at Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) because the stock has been on a tear, hitting a new 52-week high of $23.31 in November 2025, and you need to know who is driving that momentum. The answer is clear: institutional conviction is defintely high, with roughly 98.3% of the stock currently owned by major institutions like Soleus Capital Management and BlackRock, Inc. This isn't just passive holding, either; in the third quarter of 2025, we saw significant accumulation, including a new position by Commodore Capital LP valued at about $42.8 million, plus Vanguard Group Inc. boosting its stake by 5.9%. This institutional buying is happening even as the company, now focused on oncology, reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $24.6 million, though they still hold a strong cash position of $295.6 million, giving them a runway into 2028. So, are these big players betting solely on the promise of TERN-701 in oncology, or is there a deeper value story they see in a biotech with a $2.19 billion market capitalization? Let's break down the investor profile to see who is buying and why they are willing to stomach the near-term losses for the long-term pipeline potential.

Who Invests in Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) and Why?

The investor profile for Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) is defintely dominated by large, sophisticated players, not the everyday retail trader. The stock is overwhelmingly an institutional-grade, high-conviction biotech play, and the recent strategic pivot to oncology is the core reason for the massive capital inflows.

As of the most recent filings for the third quarter of 2025, institutional ownership sits at an extremely high level, hovering between 98.3% and 99.08% of the outstanding shares. This concentration means the stock's price movements are driven by the decisions of large funds, not individual investors. You are essentially investing alongside some of the biggest names in finance, including BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc., who are passive index and mutual fund giants, but also specialist healthcare funds like Soleus Capital Management, L.P., Orbimed Advisors Llc, and Deep Track Capital, LP.

Here's the breakdown of the key investor types and their Q3 2025 positions:

• Specialized Hedge Funds: These are the high-conviction, active money managers. Soleus Capital Management, L.P. is a top holder with 8,127,100 shares as of September 30, 2025. Commodore Capital Lp, a new entrant, established a significant stake of approximately $42.8 million in the same quarter.
• Passive Institutional Funds: Firms like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. hold large positions-5,551,308 shares and 4,559,917 shares, respectively, as of Q3 2025. They are generally long-term holders, providing a stable base of capital.
• Retail Investors: Given the institutional dominance, retail ownership is negligible, meaning TERN is not a meme stock or a heavily followed retail favorite.

Investment Motivations: The Oncology Pivot

The primary attraction for these major investors is Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s strategic shift to focus exclusively on its oncology pipeline, specifically TERN-701, a drug for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML). This is a classic biotech growth play, pure and simple. The company is actively seeking partnerships for its remaining metabolic assets, like TERN-501 and TERN-801, after the TERN-601 obesity program was discontinued for internal development following disappointing Phase 2 data.

The core motivation is the 'unprecedented efficacy' of TERN-701. The Phase 1 CARDINAL trial data, updated in November 2025, showed an overall cumulative Major Molecular Response (MMR) rate of 75% by 24 weeks in relapsed/refractory CML patients. This is a huge signal for a potential 'best-in-disease' therapy. Truist Securities, for example, raised its projected peak adjusted sales for TERN-701 to $1.6 billion, up from $1.4 billion, following the positive data.

Plus, the company has a strong financial buffer. As of September 30, 2025, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $295.6 million. This cash position is expected to fund operations into 2028, which is critical for a clinical-stage company, as it removes the immediate threat of share dilution.

Strategies: Long-Term Growth Meets Event-Driven Trading

You see two main strategies at play here, which is common for a clinical-stage biotech with a major catalyst.

The first is a Long-Term Growth Strategy. Institutional investors are buying into the potential commercialization of TERN-701, which is protected by a solid intellectual property portfolio that extends market exclusivity into 2039. They are willing to hold through the high-risk, high-reward clinical trial phases, betting on the ultimate market approval. Here's the quick math: a potential $1.6 billion drug in a focused market justifies a significant premium over the current valuation.

The second is an Event-Driven Strategy. Many active funds are positioning themselves ahead of key data readouts-the 'catalysts.' The stock's recent volatility and analyst upgrades (like BMO Capital raising its target to $30.00 and Truist to $35.00) are direct results of investors trading on the Phase 1 CARDINAL trial data abstract and the anticipated oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting in December 2025.

The table below summarizes the financial snapshot that fuels these strategies:

If you want to dive deeper into the financial health that supports this investor confidence, you should check out Breaking Down Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Your next step is to monitor the December 2025 ASH presentation data for TERN-701 closely, as that will be the next major inflection point for these institutional investors.

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN)

The core takeaway here is simple: institutional investors, the big money managers, own nearly all of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN), signaling a high-conviction bet on its clinical pipeline. Institutional ownership sits at a staggering 98.26%, which is defintely not a small, passive position for a clinical-stage biopharma company.

This massive concentration means the stock's direction is overwhelmingly dictated by a relatively small group of sophisticated funds, many of whom are sector specialists. When you see ownership this high, you know the market is pricing in a significant binary event, likely tied to their lead drug candidate, TERN-701, a treatment for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML).

Top Institutional Investors and Their Holdings

Looking at the latest filings from the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year (September 30, 2025), a few names stand out as the anchor investors. These are the funds that have taken the largest positions, essentially becoming the company's financial backbone. Here's the quick math on the top holders, with their position values based on the end-of-Q3 pricing.

The top eight institutions alone hold millions of shares, with Soleus Capital Management, L.P. leading the charge with over 8.1 million shares valued at approximately $212.0 million. For a company with a market capitalization around $2.40 billion, this kind of concentrated ownership is a huge vote of confidence.

Recent Changes in Ownership: The Bullish Signal

What's more important than who owns the stock is whether they are buying or selling. The recent activity shows a strong trend of institutional accumulation. For instance, Commodore Capital LP established a brand new position in the third quarter, acquiring 5,700,000 shares, a stake valued at roughly $42.8 million. That's a serious commitment.

Other major institutions also significantly increased their exposure. Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.L.C. boosted its stake by over 207%, adding 2,659,000 shares, and Vanguard Group Inc. increased its holdings by 5.9%, buying an additional 253,751 shares. This tells you that active managers are placing fresh bets on Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. right now. Still, not everyone is buying; Soleus Capital Management, L.P. slightly reduced its position by 0.49%, which is a minor trim, not a major exit.

• Commodore Capital LP initiated a new $42.8 million stake.
• Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.L.C. increased its position by over 207%.
• Vanguard Group Inc. added 253,751 shares in Q3.

Impact of Institutional Investors on Stock Price and Strategy

These large investors play a crucial, dual role in a clinical-stage company like Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. First, they provide capital stability. The company's cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities stood at $295.6 million as of September 30, 2025, which is projected to fund operations into 2028. This strong balance sheet is what attracts and keeps institutional money, reducing the near-term risk of dilutive financing.

Second, their buying acts as a powerful market signal. The recent institutional inflows are directly linked to the bullish sentiment surrounding the company's pipeline, particularly the promising Phase 1 CARDINAL data for TERN-701, which showed a 75% cumulative Major Molecular Response (MMR) rate by 24 weeks in CML patients. This strong clinical data, combined with a 'Moderate Buy' consensus and price targets as high as $30.00 from analysts like BMO Capital Markets, is what fuels the institutional appetite. You can learn more about the company's long-term vision in their Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN).

Key Investors and Their Impact on Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN)

The investor profile for Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) is overwhelmingly institutional, with these sophisticated funds driving the stock's significant moves and validating the company's strategic pivot to oncology. As of the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2025, institutional investors own approximately 98.3% of the company's stock, meaning individual retail investors have a very small float to work with.

This high concentration of ownership signals a strong belief in the clinical pipeline, specifically the lead candidate TERN-701 for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML). You are defintely following the smart money here, but remember that a high institutional stake can also lead to sharp volatility on any major news event.

The Heavy Hitters: Who Owns the Largest Stakes?

The shareholder list is a who's who of specialist healthcare and large-cap institutional funds, which is typical for a clinical-stage biotech. These aren't just passive index funds; many are actively managed funds with deep expertise in life sciences, like Soleus Capital Management, L.P. and Orbimed Advisors Llc, who are betting on the success of the TERN-701 program.

Here's a snapshot of the largest institutional holders as of September 30, 2025, based on 13F filings (which track institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management):

• Soleus Capital Management, L.P.: Holds 8,127,100 shares.
• Morgan Stanley: Holds 7,589,095 shares.
• Orbimed Advisors Llc: Holds 7,562,971 shares.
• Deep Track Capital, LP: Holds 7,495,000 shares.
• Vivo Capital, LLC: Holds 6,895,746 shares.

Even mega-funds like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. are significant holders, with BlackRock, Inc. owning 5,551,308 shares and Vanguard Group Inc. holding 4,559,917 shares, demonstrating broad institutional support.

Recent Moves: The Q3 2025 Buying Spree

The third quarter of 2025 saw substantial capital inflows, coinciding with the company's strategic decision to focus on oncology and positive clinical updates. New money is pouring in, and existing holders are adding to their positions.

A notable new entrant is Commodore Capital Lp, which established a significant new stake of 5,700,000 shares, valued at roughly $42.8 million at the time. This kind of large, new position from a dedicated capital fund is a strong vote of confidence in the future value of the CML drug candidate. Also, Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.L.C. nearly doubled their stake, adding 2,659,000 shares, and Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position by 5.9%, buying an additional 253,751 shares.

On the flip side, insider selling is a point to watch. A director, Jill M. Quigley, sold 24,520 shares on November 4, 2025, for a total transaction value of $441,360.00. While this is a small fraction of the overall market cap, it's a reminder that insiders may take profits following the stock's massive run-up.

Investor Influence and the Stock's Trajectory

The influence of these investors is clear when you look at the stock's performance. The share price has surged by over 295% from November 2024 to November 2025, moving from $5.70 to approximately $22.56 per share. This rapid appreciation is directly tied to the promising Phase 1 CARDINAL data for TERN-701, which showed a 75% cumulative Major Molecular Response (MMR) rate by 24 weeks in CML patients.

The institutional backing acts as a powerful catalyst. When a company with a strong cash position-$295.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025, providing a runway into 2028-delivers compelling clinical data, the specialist funds move aggressively. This is why you see analysts from firms like BMO Capital Markets and Barclays raising their price targets to as high as $30 and $28, respectively, essentially echoing the institutional conviction.

The strategic decision to discontinue internal development of metabolic programs like TERN-601 and focus solely on oncology is a direct response to the market's preference, which is largely dictated by these major institutional holders. They want a focused, high-potential bet, and Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. delivered that focus. For a deeper dive into the company's fiscal stability, check out Breaking Down Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

The investor sentiment toward Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) is defintely positive right now, driven by a strategic pivot to oncology and promising clinical data. You see a clear consensus among Wall Street analysts, with 8 firms collectively assigning a Buy consensus rating as of November 21, 2025, which includes 38% recommending a Strong Buy. This optimism is a direct result of the company's focus on its lead candidate, TERN-701, for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML), especially after the decision to discontinue the TERN-601 obesity program.

Big money is backing this shift. The institutional block inflow ratio is robust at 50.30%, showing that large, sophisticated investors are moving in, which is a stronger signal than the 47.02% inflow ratio from smaller retail investors. Institutional shareholders own a massive portion of the company, controlling approximately 94.82% of the stock. That kind of concentration suggests a high-conviction play on the oncology pipeline's success.

Recent Market Reactions to Ownership Shifts

The stock market has reacted strongly to both the clinical progress and the institutional buying, pushing Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to a new 52-week high in November 2025. The share price has seen a dramatic increase of 295.79% from November 2024 to November 2025, reflecting the market's excitement over the TERN-701 data. The most immediate catalyst was the Q3 2025 earnings report on November 10, 2025, where the company reported a net loss per share (EPS) of ($0.27), beating the consensus estimate of ($0.32). That beat, plus the TERN-701 data update, sent the stock jumping.

The market also watches major institutional moves closely. For instance, in the third quarter of 2025, a new large institutional holder, Commodore Capital LP, established a position of 5,700,000 shares. Also, Morgan Stanley increased its stake by 4.627% during the same period, adding 335,626 shares. This isn't just passive holding; it's active accumulation that validates the company's new strategic direction.

Analyst Perspectives and Key Investor Influence

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, setting an average 12-month price target of $27.50 based on 11 Wall Street analysts, with the highest target at $35.00. This is an aggressive valuation for a clinical-stage biotech, but it's grounded in the clinical promise of TERN-701, which is showing compelling efficacy data. The Phase 1 CARDINAL trial data, for example, showed a cumulative Major Molecular Response (MMR) rate of 75% by 24 weeks.

The presence of major institutional investors like Blackrock Inc. acts as a significant stamp of approval. Blackrock Inc. holds 5,551,308 shares, valued at approximately $125.24 million as of the Q3 2025 filings, and they added to their position in the quarter. When a firm of that size is a top-ten holder, it signals a belief in the long-term potential of the core asset. Here's a look at the top institutional holders and their Q3 2025 positions:

Here's the quick math: these top five institutional holders alone control over 44% of the company's shares. This is a high-risk, high-reward biotech play, but the institutional backing suggests they've done their homework on the TERN-701 data. You can read more about the company's focus here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN).

The key risk, what this estimate hides, is the inherent volatility of a clinical-stage company. The company is still operating at a loss-the net loss for Q3 2025 was $24.6 million-and has no product revenue, so any disappointment in the TERN-701 trial data could cause a sharp correction. Still, with $295.6 million in cash and equivalents as of September 30, 2025, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has a runway into 2028, giving them ample capital to execute on their oncology strategy.