Exploring Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're watching Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and wondering who's still buying after the latest gut-punch, right? Honestly, the investor profile is defintely shifting dramatically, and it's a high-stakes game of who's in and who's out. The company's Q3 2025 financials, reported in early November, already showed a tight runway with only $7.5 million in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet against a $3.5 million net loss for the quarter, a clear sign of the financial pressure. But the real shake-up came on November 19, 2025, when the all-stock acquisition of CAR-T programs was announced, causing the stock to plummet nearly 48.92% in a single day. That's because the deal involves issuing 8.27 million new shares, meaning existing stockholders will own a minority stake of just 35.0% on a fully diluted basis. So, who are the institutional players like Vanguard Group Inc and BlackRock, Inc. that are either holding their ground or quietly accumulating shares in this new, heavily diluted entity, and what does this strategic pivot-trading majority ownership for pipeline extension-really tell us about the future value proposition?

Who Invests in Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and Why?

You're looking at Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST), a clinical-stage biotech, and trying to figure out who's buying and what their endgame is. The simple answer is that the investor base is a classic biotech mix: long-term strategic venture capital, passive institutional money, and highly volatile, catalyst-driven hedge funds. They are all here for the same two things: the massive potential of the Amezalpat (TPST-1120) drug candidate and the recent, high-stakes strategic alternatives process.

As of the end of Q3 2025, institutional investors held approximately 18.87% of the company's shares, according to the latest filings. This is a relatively low figure for a publicly traded company, which tells you the stock's price movements are often dictated by a smaller pool of active players. Retail investors, the everyday 'you' and 'me' checking their brokerage app, hold a tiny fraction, around 0.15%, but their collective sentiment can still drive significant short-term volatility. It's a high-risk, high-reward setup.

Here's a snapshot of the primary investor types and their stakes based on September 30, 2025, data:

Investment Motivations: The Biotech Binary

The motivation for investing in Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. is a classic biotech binary event bet: either the clinical data is a home run, or it's a strikeout. There is no middle ground. The core thesis rests on Amezalpat (TPST-1120), which is in a global randomized Phase Ib/II trial for first-line hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a liver cancer. Positive data in 2023 caused the stock to skyrocket over 4,000% in a single day, showing you the explosive potential. The global liver cancer drug market is projected to reach $7.6 billion by 2033, so if TPST-1120 becomes a preferred first-line treatment, the upside is massive.

However, the near-term motivation has shifted to the 'strategic alternatives' process. When a clinical-stage company with a net loss of $22.2 million for the first nine months of 2025 and a cash balance of just $7.5 million (as of September 30, 2025) mentions this, it signals a potential sale or major partnership. The recent announcement on November 19, 2025, of an all-stock acquisition of CAR-T programs, which will dilute existing stockholders to only a 35.0% ownership stake, is the ultimate strategic alternative. This single event caused the stock to plummet by 48.92%, which is a huge risk, but it also creates a new, lower entry point for investors who believe in the combined pipeline.

• Clinical Success: Betting on TPST-1120's potential to transform HCC treatment.
• M&A Premium: Anticipating a strategic buyer or partnership for the clinical assets.
• Pipeline Diversification: Buying into the new CAR-T programs acquired in November 2025.

Investment Strategies: Long-Term Growth vs. Short-Term Catalyst

You see two main strategies at play here. The first is the long-term growth strategy, primarily employed by the venture capital and passive institutional holders. Firms like Vanguard and BlackRock are primarily passive index-trackers, meaning they hold the stock simply because it's in a small-cap or biotech index. They are the bedrock, but they don't drive the day-to-day price action. Versant, the strategic VC, is a long-term player focused on the drug's ultimate approval and commercialization. They are patient capital.

The second, and more influential, strategy is the short-term catalyst-driven trade, typical of hedge funds and active traders. These players are focused on the next data release, the next regulatory milestone (like the Fast Track designation for TPST-1120), or the outcome of the strategic alternatives process. They thrive on the stock's high volatility-its daily average volatility was over 31% in the week leading up to November 21, 2025. They are looking for a quick win, often buying heavily before a known catalyst and selling immediately after, regardless of the long-term implications. The massive dilution announced in November 2025 is a perfect example of a high-risk event that short-term traders reacted to instantly and severely. For a deeper look at the fundamentals, you should read Breaking Down Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Here's the quick math: the company is burning cash, but the potential market for its lead drug is substantial. The investment strategy is defintely a high-stakes bet on future clinical data outweighing current financial risks and shareholder dilution.

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST)

You're looking at Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and trying to figure out who the big money players are and what their recent moves mean. The direct takeaway is that institutional ownership is moderate, sitting at about 13.19% of total shares outstanding as of the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2025, but the recent activity shows a sharp divergence between venture capital exits and passive fund accumulation.

Top Institutional Investors: Who Holds the Keys?

As a development-stage biotech, Tempest Therapeutics' shareholder base is a mix of early-stage venture capital firms and large, passive index funds. The latest 13F filings, reporting positions as of September 30, 2025, confirm this split. The largest single holder is Versant Venture Management, LLC, which is typical for a company they helped fund and bring public. Their position is substantial, holding 269,772 shares, valued at approximately $993 thousand based on the quarter-end price.

The next tier of major holders includes the giants of the indexing world, which buy a stock simply because it's in an index, not because of a specific fundamental view. This is defintely a key distinction for a volatile biotech stock.

• Versant Venture Management, LLC: 269,772 shares
• Vanguard Group Inc: 162,560 shares
• Geode Capital Management, LLC: 41,024 shares
• BlackRock, Inc.: 39,068 shares
• Fmr Llc: 33,226 shares

Here's the quick math: Vanguard and BlackRock, two of the world's largest asset managers, hold their shares primarily through their index-tracking funds, which means their stake is generally less about a directional bet on the company's pipeline and more about market capitalization inclusion.

Changes in Ownership: The Great Institutional Divide

The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant shake-up in the institutional register, signaling a clear divergence in strategy among different types of funds. Overall, there were 12 institutions that decreased their positions versus 9 that added shares. The net effect was a large outflow of institutional shares.

The most dramatic moves came from hedge funds and active managers who appear to be exiting their positions entirely. For example, Sabby Management, LLC and Tang Capital Management, LLC both removed their entire holdings in Q3 2025, selling 276,587 shares and 138,962 shares, respectively, representing a 100.0% decrease for both. This is a strong signal of a loss of conviction from these active players.

Conversely, the passive giants were net buyers. Vanguard Group Inc increased its stake by 20.765%, adding 27,952 shares, and Geode Capital Management, LLC increased its position by 18.102%, adding 6,288 shares. This increase is almost certainly tied to portfolio rebalancing as the company remains in the indexes these funds track, not a new fundamental investment thesis. DRW Securities, LLC and Belvedere Trading LLC were also notable new entrants, adding 18,828 shares and 5,325 shares, respectively.

Impact of Institutional Investors: The Push and Pull of Strategy

In a small-cap biotech like Tempest Therapeutics, institutional investors play a critical role that goes beyond simple liquidity. The high volume of selling by active funds like Sabby and Tang can create significant downward pressure on the stock price, especially given the company's high volatility and classification as a distressed stock with a GF Score of 39.

The remaining institutional base, particularly the venture capital funds like Versant, acts as a stabilizing force and a strategic partner. Their continued holding signals a long-term commitment to the company's clinical pipeline, which includes candidates like TPST-1120 and TPST-1495. Their presence is crucial for supporting the recent strategic acquisition of dual-targeting CAR-T programs from Factor Bioscience, an all-stock deal announced in November 2025. This move, which is expected to fund operations until mid-2027, is a significant strategic pivot that requires shareholder confidence.

Also, the company has a limited duration stockholder rights plan that sets a 15% ownership threshold for certain passive institutional investors, indicating an effort to manage accumulation and protect shareholder value from unwanted takeovers. This highlights the board's awareness of the strategic importance of its institutional holders. Understanding the financial context is key to assessing this investor activity. You can dig deeper into the company's fundamentals by reading Breaking Down Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

What this estimate hides is the potential for a sudden, positive clinical trial data release to completely reverse the sentiment, drawing in new institutional money fast.

Key Investors and Their Impact on Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST)

You're looking at Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) right now, but you need to understand that the investor profile you see today is a snapshot of a company in the middle of a seismic shift. The direct takeaway is this: the traditional institutional ownership base is about to be drastically diluted, and control is passing to the equity holders of Factor Bioscience Inc. following a major all-stock acquisition announced in November 2025.

Before this deal, the investor base was typical for a clinical-stage biotech, anchored by a mix of venture capital and large index funds. But honestly, that's history now. The market reacted sharply to the news, which is a clear signal of investor apprehension over the immediate financial ramifications of dilution.

The Pre-Acquisition Institutional Base (Q3 2025)

Looking at the September 30, 2025, 13F filings, the institutional ownership was concentrated, yet fragmented, with a total of 22 institutional owners holding 315,852 shares. These are mostly passive investors, meaning they track indexes rather than actively seeking to change company strategy. They buy the stock because it's in their benchmark, not necessarily because they have a deep conviction in the lead drug candidate, TPST-1120.

The largest institutional holders were led by a venture capital firm that helped fund the company's early stages, plus the usual suspects from the passive world. Here's the quick math on the top institutional positions as of the end of Q3 2025:

What this estimate hides is the small-cap nature of the stock; even large names like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. hold relatively small positions in terms of total portfolio value. Their influence is mostly through their sheer size and passive buying pressure, not activist engagement.

The November 2025 Control Shift and New Power Players

The real story is the transaction announced on November 19, 2025: the all-stock acquisition of Factor Bioscience's dual-CAR T programs. This move fundamentally rewrites the ownership structure and shifts control. Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. is issuing a staggering 8,268,495 new shares to an affiliate of Factor Bioscience, Erigen LLC.

This single action is the most important recent move by far, and it completely changes the investor profile. The new power players are Factor Bioscience's key equity holders:

• Matt Angel, Ph.D., who is expected to hold about 38.0% of the fully diluted equity.
• Lotus Capital (BVI) Limited, expected to hold roughly 27.0% of the fully diluted equity.

Collectively, these two entities will control approximately 65% of the enlarged company. That's a controlling stake. This isn't just a new investor; it's a new owner and a new strategic direction. You should defintely read Breaking Down Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors to understand the financial backdrop that necessitated this move, given the company's cash position of only $7.5 million at the close of Q3 2025.

Investor Influence and Actions

The influence of the new investors is immediate and absolute. The control transfer is tied to a leadership change: Matt Angel, Ph.D., Factor's co-founder, will become the new President and CEO of Tempest Therapeutics, Inc., replacing Stephen Brady, who will move to Chairman.

This is a clear signal that the company's future strategy will be dictated by the new majority owners, focusing on the acquired CAR-T programs like TPST-2003, in addition to the existing pipeline. The immediate action taken by the market-a stock price plummet of nearly 48.92% on the news-shows the existing investors' deep concern over the massive shareholder dilution (current stockholders will own only about 35.0% of the combined entity) and the effective change in control. The investor base is now split between passive funds that are likely to hold and the new, highly influential majority owners who are actively steering the ship.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

You want to know who is buying Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) and why, but the answer fundamentally changed on November 19, 2025. The market's immediate reaction was a sharp, painful rejection of the new ownership structure, which is the single most important factor driving the stock right now.

The company's all-stock acquisition of CAR-T programs from Factor Bioscience and its affiliate, Erigen LLC, immediately wiped out nearly half the market value, with the stock plummeting by a staggering 48.92% in a single trading session. This isn't just volatility; it's a profound statement of negative investor sentiment driven by massive shareholder dilution. The stock price on November 20, 2025, sat near $3.71 per share, a far cry from its prior levels.

The New Dominant Investor Profile: Factor Bioscience

The investor profile for Tempest Therapeutics has shifted from a mix of institutional and retail holders to a new, dominant strategic owner. The acquisition is structured to issue 8,268,495 new shares of common stock to Factor and Erigen, an issuance that represents approximately 65% of the total outstanding stock of the enlarged company. This is a complete transfer of control, so the old shareholder list is now a minority group.

The clear winners in this transaction, and the new key shareholders, are Factor Bioscience's equity holders, particularly Matt Angel, Ph.D., and Lotus Capital (BVI) Limited. They will collectively own about 65% of the new Tempest Therapeutics. This new ownership structure gives them significant influence over future direction and strategy, plus Dr. Angel will take over as President and CEO.

• New Majority Owners: Factor Bioscience equity holders (Matt Angel, Ph.D., and Lotus Capital (BVI) Limited).
• New Ownership Stake: Approximately 65% of the fully diluted company.
• Existing Shareholder Dilution: Existing Tempest stockholders will own only about 35.0%.

Here's the quick math: the company's decision to gain a cash runway extension, expected to last until mid-2027, came at the cost of existing shareholder control. The market defintely priced in the dilution risk immediately.

Pre-Deal Institutional Holdings and Recent Trading

Prior to the November 19th acquisition, the institutional ownership landscape was already thin, a common trait for a clinical-stage biotech. Institutional investors held a relatively small stake, with some sources citing institutional ownership as low as 4.78% to 7.97% of the company's stock as of the third quarter of 2025. This means retail investors held a disproportionately large share, around 90.77% in some estimates, making the stock highly susceptible to sentiment swings and news events like this dilution.

Key institutional holders before the deal included Versant Venture Management, LLC (holding 269,772 shares, or about 6.08%), Vanguard Group Inc., and BlackRock, Inc. These funds, now minority holders, have seen the value of their positions nearly halved overnight. The table below shows the largest institutional positions reported for the end of Q3 2025, before the dilution event:

What this estimate hides is that the value of these holdings is now dramatically lower following the 48.92% stock price drop. The existing institutional investors now have a much smaller piece of a much larger pie, even if the new combined entity has a longer cash runway.

Analyst Perspectives on the Strategic Shift

The analyst consensus before the acquisition announcement was already cautious. Based on reports from early to mid-2025, the average analyst rating was a 'Hold' or 'Reduce,' with an average price target of around $12.50, ranging from a low of $9.00 to a high of $16.00. These targets are now completely obsolete, as they were based on the old pipeline and capital structure.

The new perspective will focus on the strategic value of the acquired dual-targeting CAR-T programs, including TPST-2003, and the extended cash runway. The company reported a Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.79 and ended the quarter with only $7.5 million in cash and cash equivalents. The acquisition, while dilutive, was a necessary lifeline to advance the pipeline and extend operations into mid-2027. The analyst community will now be weighing the long-term clinical potential of the new CAR-T assets against the immediate, severe financial cost to existing shareholders. You can learn more about the strategic rationale in the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST).

Actionable Insight: Near-Term Risk and Opportunity

The near-term risk is that the market continues to punish the stock for dilution, especially since the deal requires majority shareholder approval and won't close until early 2026. This creates a period of uncertainty. The opportunity lies in the clinical pipeline: the new CAR-T assets and the existing Phase 3-ready amezalpat program. If the acquired programs show strong efficacy data in 2026-2027, new institutional money may step in, but that is a long-term play.

Your next step should be to monitor the filings for any new analyst reports post-November 19, 2025, and specifically track the trading activity of the pre-existing major institutional holders like Vanguard and BlackRock to see if they are selling their remaining, diluted stakes.