Exploring VEON Ltd. (VEON) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're looking at VEON Ltd. and trying to figure out if the recent financial momentum is a signal or just noise, right? Honestly, that's the right question to ask when a stock's ownership structure is as concentrated and complex as this one. The numbers for 2025 are defintely showing a shift: the total operating revenue for the first half of the year hit $2.113 billion, a solid 7.31% jump in USD terms, and that strong momentum is why they even raised their 2025 outlook. But here's the quick math on the risk: institutional investors-the big funds-hold about 25.54% of the stock, which is a significant block, but the real power lies with a single entity, LetterOne Investment Holdings S.A., which controls a massive 45.5% of the common and voting shares. So, when you see the company launching a $100 million buyback program in November 2025, you have to ask: is this a value-creation move for all shareholders, or is it a strategic action driven by the dominant owner's long-term geopolitical and frontier-market strategy? That's what we need to unpack.

Who Invests in VEON Ltd. (VEON) and Why?

If you're looking at VEON Ltd. (VEON), you're seeing a company that's less a traditional telecom and more a digital growth play in frontier markets. The investor base reflects this, blending a massive strategic owner with a mix of institutional funds chasing value and retail investors betting on a turnaround. The direct takeaway is that VEON's ownership is heavily concentrated, but the public float is attracting value-focused capital due to the significant digital transformation momentum.

The Concentrated Investor Base: Strategic vs. Institutional

The ownership structure at VEON is unique and needs a careful look. It's not a typical public company where institutional investors hold the majority of the float. Instead, a single strategic shareholder holds immense sway, which is a critical factor for any potential investor to understand.

Here's the quick math on the major players as of late 2025:

• Letterone Investment Holdings S.A.: This strategic anchor holds a dominant stake of approximately 45.5% of the total American Depositary Shares (ADS) outstanding. This is a long-term, controlling interest that fundamentally shapes the company's direction.
• General Institutional Investors: Excluding Letterone, a broader group of mutual funds, pension funds, and asset managers held around 23.84% of the total shares outstanding at the end of 2024. This group includes firms like Lingotto Investment Management LLP and Shah Capital Management Inc., who hold significant stakes, at approximately 7.8% and 6.7% of the total ADS, respectively.
• Retail Investors: The remaining portion of the float is held by individual retail investors. This group is often drawn to the volatility and potential high upside of a stock in a complex geopolitical and high-growth sector.

The large stake held by Letterone means you defintely need to pay attention to their long-term strategy, as it impacts everything from capital allocation to major asset sales.

Investment Motivations: Growth, Value, and Capital Return

What's drawing capital to VEON is a combination of a compelling growth narrative in underserved markets and a deep value proposition, especially with the company's focus on an asset-light, digital-first strategy. Investors are buying into the transition from a traditional telecom company to a digital operator.

The key attractions are clear:

• Digital Growth Engine: The company's direct digital revenue is booming, with a massive year-on-year growth of 63.1% in Q3 2025, which now accounts for 17.8% of total revenue. This is the core growth story, especially in markets like Pakistan and Ukraine, where digital adoption is accelerating. If you want to understand the long-term vision behind this, look at the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of VEON Ltd. (VEON).
• Value Proposition: Analysts see a significant discount, with a fair value estimate of up to $60.4/share, implying a potential upside of around 32% over the stock's price earlier in 2025. This is classic value investing territory-buying a solid business at a steep discount due to perceived risks.
• Capital Return: VEON is actively managing its capital structure. The Board authorized a buyback program of up to $100 million for its ADSs and/or outstanding bonds in November 2025, signaling management's confidence in the stock's undervaluation. Plus, the company has indicated a plan to resume dividends on 2026 earnings at 50% of free cash flow to equity.

The firm's 2025 financial outlook solidifies this growth argument, with management raising their full-year local currency EBITDA growth guidance to between 16% and 18%.

Strategies: Long-Term Holders and Catalyst-Driven Funds

The strategies employed by VEON investors fall into two main buckets: those with a long time horizon and those focused on near-term events. The company's frontier market exposure means this isn't a low-volatility investment, so the strategies tend to be higher conviction.

Long-Term/Growth Holders: These investors, including the major strategic shareholder and core institutional funds, are betting on the multi-year transformation. They are focused on the local currency growth, which is projected to be strong in 2025:

Here's the thinking: Strong local currency growth in markets like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan eventually translates to higher U.S. dollar earnings, even with foreign exchange (FX) headwinds.

Value/Event-Driven Funds: This group, which includes many hedge funds and specialized institutional investors, is focused on specific catalysts to close the valuation gap. The most important near-term catalyst is the planned listing of the Ukrainian subsidiary, Kyivstar, in the second half of 2025, which is expected to crystalize significant value for the group. The buyback program is another clear, actionable event they are tracking. For them, the investment is a deep-value play with a defined exit ramp.

Your next step should be to model the impact of the Kyivstar listing on VEON's sum-of-the-parts valuation by year-end.

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of VEON Ltd. (VEON)

You need to know who is really calling the shots at VEON Ltd. (VEON), and the answer is a mix of strategic long-term holders and opportunistic hedge funds. As of the third quarter of 2025, institutional investors-the mutual funds, pension funds, and asset managers-held roughly 24.42% of VEON's total shares outstanding, which translates to about 16.89 million shares. This is a significant block, but it's still a lower percentage than you see in many mature US telecom stocks, which tells you this is a story of a turnaround and special situations, not just a set-it-and-forget-it core holding.

The total value of these institutional holdings stood at approximately $839 million, a figure that underscores the high-stakes nature of this investor base. These aren't passive players; they are looking for a significant return on a complex, high-potential asset base. The low institutional float, plus a large retail base, means any major institutional move can defintely create volatility.

Top Institutional Investors and Their Stakes

When you drill down into the 13F filings for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, a few names dominate the shareholder list. These are the funds that have done the deep work on VEON's de-risking strategy, its digital operator model, and the value locked in subsidiaries like Kyivstar. Here's a quick look at the largest reported positions:

Notice the concentration: Lingotto and Shah Capital alone account for a massive chunk of the institutional ownership. This kind of concentration means you need to pay close attention to their public statements or any shifts in their holdings, because their actions carry real weight. The top five institutional holders control a disproportionate amount of the institutional float.

Recent Shifts: Buying, Selling, and Strategic Alignment

The recent ownership changes are where the real story is, reflecting the market's reaction to VEON's strategic pivot away from Russia and its focus on high-growth digital services in markets like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ukraine. For the third quarter of 2025, we saw a net positive sentiment in terms of new positions, but a mixed bag on position sizing.

• Increased Positions: 53 institutions increased their stake, adding a total of 1.62 million shares.
• Decreased Positions: 31 institutions reduced their stake, selling a total of 1.31 million shares.
• New Buyers: Panview Capital Ltd. was a notable new entrant, acquiring 413,021 shares.
• Significant Sellers: Helikon Investments Ltd. was a major seller, reducing its position by over 64.9%, a clear signal of taking profits or re-evaluating the risk/reward profile post-restructuring.

This dynamic-more buyers than sellers, but significant selling from a few large players-suggests a transition. Some investors are concluding their restructuring play, while others are initiating a position based on the new Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of VEON Ltd. (VEON) and the simplified operating model. The net institutional buying activity points to a belief that the company's digital growth story is gaining traction.

The Impact of Institutional Ownership on VEON's Trajectory

Institutional investors are not just passive holders; they are a direct influence on both stock price and corporate strategy. For a company like VEON, which is actively undergoing a transformation, this is crucial. Their buying provides a floor for the stock price, and their selling can create short-term pressure. More importantly, their alignment is key to executing major strategic initiatives.

Here's the quick math: with a large portion of the float held by a few active funds, management has to keep them happy. The institutional support is directly tied to the success of key initiatives like the planned listing of its subsidiary, Kyivstar, on the Nasdaq. That listing, a major value-unlocking move, requires a receptive investor base, which these large shareholders represent. Plus, their backing is essential for the company's capital return strategy, which includes the authorized share buyback program with approximately $35 million remaining to be spent.

These investors are essentially voting with their capital for the digital operator strategy. When Shah Capital, a major activist-leaning investor, holds a nearly $240 million stake, they are effectively endorsing the management's direction and demanding a clear path to value realization. This pressure keeps management focused on operational efficiency and aggressive digital revenue growth, which was up 63% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025.

Key Investors and Their Impact on VEON Ltd. (VEON)

The investor base of VEON Ltd. (VEON) is a clear map of its unique risk-reward profile, dominated by a single, powerful strategic shareholder and a cohort of value-focused institutional funds. The key takeaway is that the company's near-term strategy-especially the spin-off of Kyivstar-is being directly shaped by the demands of these major holders, who are pushing for value crystallization.

L1T VIP Holdings S.a.r.l. (L1) is the elephant in the room, holding a commanding position of approximately 48.62% of the company's shares as of March 30, 2025. This is not a passive investment; it's a strategic stake that gives L1 significant control over major corporate decisions, essentially setting the long-term direction. You can't analyze VEON without starting here. Because of this dominant position, the institutional ownership outside of L1 stands at a more modest 25.54% of the float, as of November 2025, which is typical for a company with a strong control block.

The Influence of Major and Activist Shareholders

Beyond the controlling block, a few other investors have a material influence, either through their sheer size or their willingness to engage in shareholder activism. Shah Capital Management, Inc. is a notable example, holding a substantial stake of about 6.98% as of September 29, 2025. In 2024, Shah Capital publicly called for a strategy to raise VEON's value by 5X by 2026, which the company acknowledged and welcomed as constructive engagement. That's a clear signal to management: deliver better returns or face continued pressure.

This influence is not just theoretical; it's visible in the governance structure. At the May 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), a slate of directors, including founder Augie K Fabela II and former U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, were nominated by statutory requisition from shareholders holding in excess of 5% of the issued share capital, with L1 being one of the requisitioning parties. This shows a direct, hands-on approach to board composition, ensuring the board is aligned with the major shareholders' value-creation agenda. The board is defintely not a rubber stamp.

Here's a quick look at the largest non-controlling shareholders and their reported 2025 positions:

Recent Investor-Driven Capital Moves

The most significant recent activity, driven by a focus on unlocking value, centers on two major actions in 2025. First, the company completed a major reorganization in April 2025 to set the stage for the proposed Nasdaq listing of its Ukrainian subsidiary, Kyivstar Group Ltd. This move is all about crystallizing the value of a key asset, a strategy that shareholders like Shah Capital have explicitly pushed for. The bondholders of VEON also showed strong support, with 95.83% of its 2027 bonds represented at a January 2025 meeting, unanimously approving a transfer of the issuer to facilitate the process.

Second, the company launched a new buyback program in November 2025, authorizing the repurchase of up to USD 100 million in ADSs and/or outstanding bonds. Management's rationale is straightforward: they believe the current trading levels, which put the market cap at about $3.56 billion as of November 2025, undervalue the fundamentals. This action is a direct response to shareholder calls for capital returns and a move to capture value, especially with the stock trading around $48.41 per share as of mid-November 2025.

Specific recent institutional trading activity highlights a divergence in views among the funds:

• Helikon Investments Ltd. significantly reduced its position in Q3 2025, removing 949,357 shares, a -64.9% change.
• Morgan Stanley added 249,213 shares in Q2 2025, an increase of +62.6%.
• Two Sigma Investments LP made a massive bet, adding 191,932 shares in Q2 2025, representing a +1046.5% increase.

The aggressive buying by a fund like Two Sigma suggests a strong conviction that the strategic changes, like the Kyivstar listing and the buyback, will pay off, aligning with the company's reaffirmed 2025 revenue growth guidance of 13% to 15% in local currency. If you want to dig deeper into the company's long-term thinking, you can review their Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of VEON Ltd. (VEON).

So, the action item for you is clear: track the Kyivstar listing timeline and the execution of the $100 million buyback. Those are the two most material, investor-driven catalysts on the table right now.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

You're looking at VEON Ltd. (VEON) and wondering who's buying and why the stock is moving. The short answer is that major shareholders are signaling a positive shift, but it's a nuanced story of risk versus digital growth. Overall, the sentiment among key investors is cautiously positive, a marked improvement from the uncertainty of the past few years.

This positive turn is grounded in the company's recent operational performance. For the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), VEON reported total revenue of USD 1,115 million, an increase of 7.5% year-over-year (YoY) in USD terms, with EBITDA jumping 19.7% to USD 524 million. This isn't just a telecom story anymore; direct digital revenues surged by over 63% YoY, now making up 17.8% of the Group's total revenue.

Still, you need to be a realist. The 'why' for institutional investors is a combination of value-unlocking events and a clear strategic pivot, but the high leverage and regional complexities are defintely still on the table. You can't ignore the geopolitical backdrop, even with the strong financial performance.

Decoding Major Shareholder Moves

The largest shareholders in VEON Ltd. are not passive investors; their positions reflect conviction in the long-term, asset-light strategy. The ownership structure shows a significant concentration, which means their actions carry real weight in the market.

As of early 2025, the ownership is dominated by a few key entities. Letterone Investment Holdings S.A. is the largest shareholder, holding an effective stake of about 45.5% of the total American Depositary Shares (ADS) in issue. This level of control means their strategic alignment with management is paramount for the company's direction. Other significant holders include Lingotto Investment Management LLP at around 7.8% and Shah Capital Management Inc. at approximately 6.7%.

Here's the quick math on why these major investors are sticking around: they see the value of the underlying assets, particularly the digital expansion and the recent listing of the Kyivstar Group. The listing of the Kyivstar Group in August 2025 was a major value-crystallization event, with VEON's 89.6% stake valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion as of November 2025. That's a huge number, and it helps mitigate the substantial doubt that previously existed about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

• Letterone: 45.5% stake, signaling deep strategic commitment.
• Kyivstar value: USD 2.5 billion, a major asset value unlock.
• Digital revenue: up 63% YoY in 3Q25, validating the pivot.

Market Reaction to Capital Actions

The stock market has responded well to the company's decisive capital actions in late 2025. The most recent signal of management's confidence came in November 2025, when the Board authorized a buyback program for up to USD 100 million of the Company's ADSs and/or outstanding bonds. This move directly addresses capital structure concerns and is a tangible way to return value to shareholders.

The flexibility to buy back both equity and debt is a smart move, what we call a capital structure optimization play. It allows management to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing debt or boosting earnings per share (EPS) by reducing the share count, depending on which is more accretive at the time. The market saw this as a strong vote of confidence from CEO Kaan Terzioglu, especially since it followed a strong Q3 2025 earnings report.

You also saw a positive reaction to the successful listing of the Kyivstar Group. The market values that 89.6% stake at 2.3 times VEON's book value for the asset at the time of listing, which is a clear sign that the market is beginning to price in the value of the company's operating subsidiaries. This is a textbook example of crystallizing value from a complex holding structure.

Analyst Perspectives and Future Catalysts

The analyst community has largely adopted a bullish stance, with a consensus rating of 'Strong Buy.' This outlook is driven by the expectation that 2025 will be a 'year of the catalyst,' with the company executing on its digital strategy and unlocking value from its assets. The average 12-month price target from analysts is around $76.00, which suggests a significant upside of nearly 70% from the stock's price in late 2025.

What this estimate hides is the continued volatility in the frontier markets where VEON operates, but analysts are betting on the company's ability to manage this through its asset-light, digital-first strategy. For example, one analyst's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation gives a fair value of $60.4 per share, based on a strong recovery in free cash flow, which they expect to hit $845 million in 2025. This is a clear focus on future cash generation over current earnings.

The key catalysts analysts are watching are the continued growth in digital services like financial services, which grew 32.6% in 3Q25, and the ongoing execution of the asset-light strategy, including potential future listings of other operational entities. If you want a deeper dive into the numbers underpinning this growth, you should check out Breaking Down VEON Ltd. (VEON) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors. The bottom line is that investors are buying into the growth story and the tangible steps being taken to de-risk the balance sheet.