Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS): Análisis FODA

En el paisaje de rápido evolución de la infraestructura de China, Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited se encuentra en una encrucijada, equilibrando sus fortalezas establecidas contra las inminentes amenazas. Este análisis FODA profundiza en la posición competitiva de la compañía, revelando oportunidades de crecimiento al tiempo que destaca las vulnerabilidades que podrían afectar su futuro. ¿Curioso acerca de cómo esta potencia regional navega por el intrincado tapiz de desafíos y perspectivas? Siga leyendo para explorar las complejidades de su planificación estratégica.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited - Análisis FODA: Fortalezas

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited ha establecido una presencia robusta en el sector de la Expresión dentro de la provincia de Henan, China. Con una cuota de mercado de aproximadamente 25% En los ingresos por peaje de Expressway, la compañía ha cultivado una marca regional sólida que resuena con los viajeros locales y las empresas por igual.

El compromiso de la compañía con la gestión eficiente de la infraestructura vial se evidencia por su 98% eficiencia promedio de mantenimiento de carreteras, significativamente por encima del estándar de la industria de 85%. Esto es compatible con avanzados sistemas de monitoreo y una fuerza laboral de mantenimiento dedicada, que contribuye a interrupciones mínimas y tiempos de viaje mejorados para los usuarios.

La estabilidad de los ingresos es otra fortaleza notable para la autopista Henan Zhongyuan, derivada principalmente de mecanismos de recolección de peajes confiables. En 2022, la compañía reportó un ingreso total de peaje de ¥ 3.2 mil millones, junto con ¥ 1.5 mil millones de contratos gubernamentales. Dichas cifras subrayan el flujo de efectivo predecible que es crucial para las operaciones continuas y las expansiones futuras.

Además, la estabilidad financiera de la compañía está respaldada por una fuerte calificación crediticia de A+ de las principales agencias de calificación crediticia, lo que refleja sus bajos niveles de deuda y su rentabilidad consistente. Esta calificación permite opciones de financiación favorables, lo que permite más inversiones en desarrollos y mejoras de infraestructura.

En general, Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited aprovecha su marca establecida, eficiencias operativas, fuentes de ingresos estables y un fuerte respaldo financiero para solidificar su posición como líder en el sector de infraestructura dentro de la región.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited - Análisis FODA: debilidades

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited enfrenta varias debilidades que podrían afectar su eficiencia operativa y rentabilidad.

Dependencia de los ingresos de peaje que están sujetos a fluctuaciones de volumen de tráfico

El modelo de ingresos de la compañía depende en gran medida de las tarifas de peaje recolectadas de los vehículos que usan sus autopistas. En 2022, Henan Zhongyuan reportó ingresos por peaje de aproximadamente RMB 1.2 mil millones, que representa una porción significativa de sus ingresos totales. Esta dependencia crea vulnerabilidad ya que los volúmenes de tráfico pueden fluctuar debido a factores estacionales, condiciones económicas o eventos externos como pandemias. Por ejemplo, durante la pandemia Covid-19, el volumen de tráfico disminuyó casi 35% en el apogeo de las restricciones, lo que lleva a una caída correspondiente en los ingresos.

Alto mantenimiento y costos operativos que afectan los márgenes de beneficio

Los costos operativos de la compañía incluyen gastos de mantenimiento para carreteras e instalaciones, salarios y costos administrativos. En el año fiscal 2022, se informaron costos operativos aproximadamente en aproximadamente RMB 900 millones, con mantenimiento solo contabilizando alrededor RMB 400 millones. Estos altos costos afectan los márgenes de beneficio, que se encontraban en 25% en 2022, en comparación con 30% En 2021. Los crecientes costos de los materiales y la mano de obra exacerban aún más este problema, lo que limita la capacidad de la compañía para mantener márgenes atractivos.

Diversificación geográfica limitada más allá de la provincia de Henan

Henan Zhongyuan opera principalmente dentro de la provincia de Henan, lo que restringe sus oportunidades de crecimiento y la expone a fluctuaciones económicas regionales. A partir de 2022, las operaciones de la compañía se concentraron en un mercado que comprende 80% de sus ingresos totales de peaje. Esta falta de diversificación podría obstaculizar la capacidad de la compañía para aprovechar las oportunidades en otros mercados, dejándola depender de la salud económica de una sola región.

Potencial vulnerabilidad a los cambios regulatorios que afectan las tasas de peaje y las políticas

Las políticas gubernamentales juegan un papel crucial en la determinación de las tasas de peaje que pueden afectar significativamente los ingresos. En los últimos años, ha habido un mayor escrutinio sobre los precios de peaje y las reformas potenciales que podrían reducir las tasas de peaje o introducir límites en los aumentos de precios. Por ejemplo, en 2021, una reforma política en la provincia de Henan dio como resultado un 10% Reducción de las tasas de peaje para ciertas categorías de vehículos. Dichos cambios regulatorios pueden afectar negativamente las proyecciones de ingresos y la previsibilidad operativa.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited - Análisis FODA: oportunidades

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited está preparado para aprovechar varias oportunidades dentro del panorama de infraestructura en rápida evolución de China. Estas oportunidades podrían mejorar significativamente su alcance operativo y su rentabilidad.

Expansión a mercados emergentes dentro del sector de infraestructura de China

El mercado de la autopista en China ha estado reestructurando, con regiones emergentes que demuestran un potencial de crecimiento sustancial. Según el Informe de desarrollo de China Road Transport 2021, la longitud total de las autopistas en China alcanzó 162,000 km A finales de 2020. Se espera que el crecimiento se acelere, con inversiones proyectadas para exceder ¥ 2 billones (aproximadamente $ 310 mil millones) De 2022 a 2025 se centró en construir y mejorar la infraestructura en áreas menos desarrolladas.

Asociaciones con empresas de tecnología para soluciones de carretera inteligente y sistemas de peaje digitales

La integración de la tecnología en la infraestructura de transporte es cada vez más crítica. Se anticipa que el mercado de soluciones de carretera inteligente crecerá a una tasa compuesta anual de 15% de 2021 a 2026, según Marketsandmarkets. La autopista Henan Zhongyuan podría aprovechar las asociaciones con empresas como Alibaba y Tencent para implementar sistemas de peaje digitales, mejorando la eficiencia y la experiencia del usuario. El mercado de recolección de peajes digitales fue valorado en aproximadamente $ 7.3 mil millones En 2021, con expectativas de crecimiento continuo impulsado por los avances en IoT y AI.

Iniciativas gubernamentales que respaldan el desarrollo y la conectividad de la infraestructura

El gobierno de China ha promulgado varias políticas para reforzar la inversión de infraestructura. El 14 ° plan quinquenal (2021-2025) enfatiza la necesidad de mejorar la conectividad, con una asignación de Over ¥ 4 billones (aproximadamente $ 620 mil millones) asignado para infraestructura de transporte. Este entorno político crea un panorama favorable para que Henan Zhongyuan expanda su red de autopistas y mejore la capacidad operativa.

Creciente demanda de redes logísticas mejoradas que aumentan el uso de la autopista

El sector logístico en China está experimentando un crecimiento sólido, con la política de logística nacional que predice un Tasa de crecimiento anual del 15% De 2022 a 2026. El aumento de la actividad de comercio electrónico está impulsando la demanda de redes de transporte eficientes, con costos logísticos que representan aproximadamente 14% del PIB de China en 2020. La creciente demanda de servicios de autopistas puede ayudar a Henan Zhongyuan a aprovechar este mercado en expansión.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited - Análisis FODA: amenazas

El entorno económico juega un papel importante en el sector del transporte. En los últimos años, la economía china ha enfrentado períodos de desaceleración, impactando a varias industrias, incluida la recolección de peajes. Por ejemplo, en 2022, el crecimiento del PIB de China cayó a 3%, abajo de 8.1% En 2021, principalmente debido a los bloqueos relacionados con Covid-19. Tales desaceleraciones podrían conducir a un uso reducido del transporte y, posteriormente, menores ingresos para la autopista Henan Zhongyuan.

Además, el desarrollo de modos de transporte alternativos, particularmente ferrocarril de alta velocidad, plantea una amenaza competitiva sustancial. La red ferroviaria de alta velocidad china se ha expandido rápidamente, con más 40,000 kilómetros de la pista a partir de 2021. Esta extensa red ofrece una opción de viaje más eficiente y rentable, que potencialmente desvía el tráfico lejos de las carreteras convencionales, incluidas las autopistas operadas por Henan Zhongyuan.

Los cambios regulatorios representan otra amenaza crítica. El gobierno chino ha estado intensificando su enfoque en la sostenibilidad ambiental, lo que podría conducir a estándares operativos más estrictos. Las recientes regulaciones que exigen reducciones en las emisiones de carbono han llevado a muchas compañías de transporte a reevaluar sus prácticas. Estos cambios podrían dar como resultado un aumento de los costos operativos para Henan Zhongyuan, ya que el cumplimiento de las nuevas regulaciones a menudo requiere una inversión significativa en tecnología e infraestructura.

Tabla: impacto potencial de los cambios regulatorios

El impacto de los desastres naturales o el clima extremo también es una preocupación significativa para Henan Zhongyuan. En 2021, China enfrentó graves inundaciones que afectaron múltiples provincias, lo que llevó a una pérdida económica estimada de sobre 82 mil millones de CNY. Tales eventos no solo dañan la infraestructura, sino que también interrumpen las operaciones y la recolección de peajes, creando presiones financieras inmediatas. Además, las proyecciones del cambio climático indican un aumento en la frecuencia de los eventos climáticos extremos, lo que podría amenazar aún más la integridad de las carreteras y puentes administrados por Henan Zhongyuan.

En resumen, varias amenazas se avecinan sobre Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited, incluidas las fluctuaciones económicas, la competencia de opciones de transporte alternativas, desafíos regulatorios y los riesgos presentados por los desastres naturales. La capacidad de la compañía para navegar estas amenazas de manera efectiva será crucial para su futura estabilidad y crecimiento.

Al examinar el análisis FODA de Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited, es evidente que, si bien la compañía cuenta con una sólida presencia regional y flujos de ingresos estables, debe navegar desafíos como las incertidumbres regulatorias y la dependencia de los ingresos por peaje. Aprovechar las oportunidades en los mercados emergentes y las asociaciones tecnológicas puede mejorar su posición estratégica, pero se requiere vigilancia para mitigar las amenazas de la competencia y las fluctuaciones económicas.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway sits on a powerful toll-revenue engine and strategic transport crossroads-backed by strong margins, disciplined financing and forward-looking digital and green initiatives-but its heavy reliance on a few core corridors, rising CAPEX and substantial debt coupled with a softening real-estate market leave it exposed; successful bidding on Zhengzhou expansion projects, green-energy rollouts, targeted acquisitions and refinancing could unlock growth and diversification, yet accelerating high-speed rail, regulatory caps, macro slowdowns and climate risks make execution and timing critical.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS) - SWOT Analysis: Strengths

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited exhibits robust toll revenue from its core assets, reporting approximately 4.85 billion RMB in toll revenue for the first three quarters of 2025. The Zhengzhou-Luohe and Luohe-Zhanjiang sections together contribute over 45% of total operating income. Net profit margins remain resilient at 22.4% as of December 2025 despite volatility in the logistics sector. The company manages a total expressway mileage exceeding 800 kilometers, providing stable cash flow coverage for debt service. Daily traffic volume on key arterial routes increased by 4.2% year-on-year compared to 2024 levels. Historically, the firm maintains a steady dividend payout ratio near 30% of distributable profits.

Strategic location within national transport hubs underpins utilization and pricing power. The network sits at the intersection of the Jinggang'ao and Lianhuo corridors, capturing an estimated 12% share of regional heavy-duty truck transit volume due to proximity to the Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone. Regional logistics throughput in Henan grew by 5.8% as of late 2025, supporting higher toll-gate utilization rates. The company reports an EBITDA margin of 58%, approximately 5 percentage points above the provincial operator average, and 70% of its assets are located within high-growth industrial zones aligned with the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration plan.

Prudent capital structure and financing capacity strengthen financial resilience. The debt-to-asset ratio is maintained at 64.5% as of December 2025. 2025 medium-term note issuances achieved average coupon rates of 2.85%. Total assets expanded to roughly 56 billion RMB, providing material collateral for project financing. Interest coverage ratio stands at 3.2x, comfortably covering annual interest obligations of 2.1 billion RMB. Credit profiles are stable, reflected in a consistent AA+ rating from major domestic agencies through fiscal 2025.

Diversified business model reduces reliance on pure toll income. Non-toll activities - primarily real estate development and equity investments - contribute about 15% of total revenue. The real estate segment reported a gross margin of 18.2% in the 2025 mid-year audit. Investment income from regional bank stakes contributed 320 million RMB to the bottom line in the current fiscal cycle. Diversification has lowered traffic-volume dependence by roughly 4 percentage points over three years. Administrative expenses are controlled at 3.5% of total revenue through centralized procurement and cost controls.

Advanced digital infrastructure enhances operational efficiency and lowers costs. The AI-driven traffic management system deployed in early 2025 reduced manual tolling costs by 12%. Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) penetration reached 88.5% by December 2025, accelerating throughput. Predictive maintenance sensors and big-data analytics reduced maintenance costs per kilometer by 6.4%. The 2025 digital transformation budget was 150 million RMB, directed at smart-highway integration. Average vehicle transit speed during peak hours improved by 9% following upgrades.

• High-margin core toll business with stable cash flows and resilient net margins (22.4%).
• Strategic corridor positioning yielding above-industry EBITDA margins (58%) and strong truck transit share (12%).
• Solid balance sheet metrics: 64.5% debt-to-asset, ~56bn RMB assets, 3.2x interest coverage, AA+ rating.
• Diversified revenue mix (15% from non-toll activities) cushioning traffic cyclicality.
• Advanced digital initiatives (ETC 88.5%, AI traffic management) driving cost reductions and throughput improvements.

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS) - SWOT Analysis: Weaknesses

High geographic concentration: approximately 60% of total toll revenue is derived from two major expressway sections within Henan province, creating pronounced exposure to regional macroeconomic cycles and local infrastructure developments. Empirical correlation analysis indicates a 0.8% decline in traffic for every 1.0% drop in local GDP. In 2025, competition from newly opened provincial bypasses diverted an estimated 3.5% of long‑haul traffic away from older segments. A localized natural disaster or infrastructure failure centered on the Zhengzhou hub could disrupt up to 40% of daily cash inflows.

Capital intensity and aging assets: the company faces a CAPEX requirement of RMB 3.2 billion in 2025 dedicated to reconstruction and expansion of legacy expressway segments. Maintenance expense as a percent of revenue has increased to 11.5% as multiple sections reach their 20‑year service life. The Zheng‑Luo expansion project alone requires an investment representing roughly 15% of current market capitalization. These investment demands compressed free cash flow by 8% versus the 2023 baseline. Depreciation and amortization increased 5.2% year‑on‑year, weighing on net income growth.

Real estate exposure and liquidity drag: property subsidiaries experienced a 10% decline in pre‑sales volume in calendar 2025. Inventory turnover for the property segment slowed to 0.45x, leaving approximately RMB 4.2 billion in capital tied up in unsold developments. The property segment's contribution to consolidated net profit shrank from 12% in 2023 to 9% in late 2025. A RMB 150 million impairment on legacy land holdings was recorded in 2025 following fluctuating Henan land valuations.

Elevated leverage and rollover risk: total liabilities reached RMB 36.2 billion by Q3 2025. Despite currently low interest rates, annual debt repayments exceed RMB 2.5 billion. The current ratio of 0.85 indicates short‑term assets do not fully cover short‑term liabilities without refinancing. Approximately 30% of total debt is due for rollover or repayment within 24 months, constraining financial flexibility for M&A and capital redeployment.

Low margins in non‑toll operations: ancillary segments such as service area management report operating margins of only 6.5%. Revenue from advertising and service station rentals grew by just 1.2% in 2025, while cost of sales for these activities rose 4.8% due to higher labor and utilities. Non‑toll operations contribute under 5% to consolidated EBITDA. Efforts to monetize traffic and operational data produced digital revenue below RMB 20 million in 2025.

• Concentration risk: 60% toll revenue from two corridors; 40% of daily cash inflows exposed to Zhengzhou hub disruptions.
• CAPEX and maintenance pressure: RMB 3.2 billion planned spend in 2025; maintenance = 11.5% of revenue; D&A +5.2% YoY.
• Property drag: RMB 4.2 billion inventory, 0.45x turnover, pre‑sales -10%, RMB 150 million impairment.
• Leverage constraints: RMB 36.2 billion liabilities, current ratio 0.85, ~30% debt maturing in 24 months.
• Low‑margin diversification: non‑toll margins 6.5%, digital revenue

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

The provincial 2025-2030 development plan targeting a 15% increase in Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle road density directly supports Zhongyuan's suburban corridors. Management estimates an incremental annual commuter traffic uplift of 7.5% on affected routes, translating into an additional 110-140 million vehicle-kilometers per year by 2026 based on current base traffic of ~1.5 billion vehicle-km. New industrial parks along S82 are forecast to contribute ~500,000 tons of freight volume by 2026, increasing heavy vehicle traffic and toll yield on freight-sensitive segments.

Key quantifiable outcomes from metropolitan expansion:

• Estimated annual incremental toll revenue from commuter uplift: 120-180 million RMB by 2026.
• Freight-induced toll and service revenue from S82 industrial parks: 45-70 million RMB annually post-2026.
• Pipeline BOT bid opportunity value: ~8.5 billion RMB across three projects (2025-2027).

The company is positioned to bid for three new BOT projects with combined estimated capital value of 8.5 billion RMB. Integration with the 'Rise of Central China' policy provides a regulatory tailwind for toll-rate adjustments scheduled in 2026, with management guidance indicating potential tariff increases in the mid-single digits (3-6%) subject to regulator approval, which would compound traffic-driven revenue growth.

Table: Expansion-related financial impact estimates (2025-2027)

The company's green energy integration plan targets installation of 200 ultra-fast EV charging stations across service areas by end-2025. Conservative modeling assumes an EV market penetration of 30% of new car sales regionally and a 25% CAGR in EV charging revenue, producing projected charging income of ~25-35 million RMB in 2026 and scaling to ~100-120 million RMB by 2028.

• Projected reduction in energy cost from solar on sound barriers: ~15% (~12-18 million RMB annual savings depending on baseline energy spend).
• Carbon credit trading: estimated secondary revenue of ~40 million RMB by 2027 under emerging provincial schemes.

Table: Green energy financial projections

Strategic mergers and targeted asset acquisitions are prioritized. Management has earmarked 2 billion RMB for acquisitions in 2025-2026 to acquire high-yield toll assets in neighboring provinces. Market consolidation among smaller provincial operators could allow a 5-8% market share increase for Zhongyuan. Opportunistic purchases of distressed assets at a price-to-book ratio of ~0.75 present upside versus historical valuations.

• Allocated acquisition fund: 2.0 billion RMB (2025-2026).
• Target PB ratio for distressed assets: 0.75 (below historical average of ~1.1-1.3 for the sector).
• Estimated margin synergy from centralized management: +10% operating margin improvement on acquired routes.

Table: Acquisition scenario economics (illustrative)

Development of a 'Smart Logistics' ecosystem includes a V2X pilot corridor that aims to attract logistics firms willing to pay a 5% premium for optimized routing and reduced transit times. Partnerships with e-commerce platforms for dedicated lanes could increase night-time traffic by ~12%, improving route utilization and service-area revenues.

• Projected data monetization: 100 million RMB revenue line by 2028 from traffic analytics, routing services, and value-added logistics products.
• Automated heavy-truck platooning impact: estimated 4% reduction in road wear, extending pavement life and lowering long-term maintenance capex by an estimated 10-15 million RMB annually on pilot corridors.

Table: Smart Logistics and tech-enabled revenue streams

The current favorable interest rate environment enabled refinancing of ~5 billion RMB of high-cost debt into lower-yield instruments in 2025, producing estimated annual interest savings of ~120 million RMB from 2026 onward. Access to green bonds provides incremental financing cost advantages, with coupon spreads roughly 20-30 bps below standard corporate bonds observed in recent provincial issuances.

• Debt refinanced in 2025: ~5.0 billion RMB.
• Estimated annual interest expense savings: ~120 million RMB (post-refi, from 2026).
• Potential reallocation: incremental free cash flow could fund a 5% increase in annual dividend subject to board approval.

Table: Financing and cash flow impact

Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Competition from the expanding high speed rail network has produced measurable traffic and revenue attrition. Completion of new high-speed lines in Henan correlated with a 6% decline in long-distance passenger bus traffic on the company's expressways in 2025. Regional rail freight capacity is scheduled to increase by 10% in 2026, which could divert heavy cargo currently generating an estimated RMB 3.2 billion in freight revenue. Historical estimates indicate that every 5% increase in rail efficiency corresponds to a 1.5% drop in toll road passenger volume; applying this elasticity to the planned 10% rail capacity increase implies a potential 3.0% reduction in passenger-related volumes.

The price competitiveness of rail for bulk commodities threatens the freight revenue base: if rail captures an incremental 8% share of bulk commodity tonnage, projected annual freight revenue loss could exceed RMB 256 million (8% of RMB 3.2 billion). Government policy shifts favoring low-carbon rail transport amplify this risk through incentives and preferential infrastructure access, accelerating inter-modal modal shift over a 3-5 year horizon.

Regulatory changes in tolling periods and rates pose significant downside. The Ministry of Transport's 2025 guidelines suggest potential caps on toll rate increases for essential logistics corridors to curb inflationary pass-through. Certain legacy toll rights expire in 2027; non-renewal or shortened extensions could result in an estimated RMB 450 million annual revenue loss.

Additional regulatory pressures include mandated toll discounts for green-energy trucks that could compress gross margins by approximately 2.3% and uncertainty around the 'Standardization of Toll Road Management,' which may raise compliance costs by roughly RMB 50 million per year. Any mandatory reduction in tolling years for existing assets would materially reduce discounted cash flow valuations and lower long-term enterprise value.

Macroeconomic slowdown risks: a projected fall in China's manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in late 2025 signals cooling activity. With roughly 70% of company revenue tied to industrial logistics, a sustained downturn could cause a 5% decline in heavy truck traffic, translating into an estimated RMB 275 million annual revenue shortfall (5% of RMB 5.5 billion target revenue). Weakness in Henan's real estate sector reduced construction-material transport by 4.2% in 2025, and export-related freight declined ~3% due to global supply-chain shifts and trade tensions.

Rising input costs increase the capital and operating expenditure burden. Asphalt and construction steel prices rose by 8% in 2025, driving up the Zheng-Luo expansion budget; projected cost overrun risk for the project is in the high single digits relative to initial estimates. Labor costs for maintenance and toll operations increased 5.5% year-on-year, contributing to a 1.5 percentage-point contraction in operating profit margin in the last fiscal half. Supply chain disruptions for specialized electronics delayed smart-highway upgrades by six months. Persistent inflationary pressure could add roughly RMB 200 million to annual operating expenses by 2026.

Environmental and climate-change exposures have translated into direct financial losses and rising compliance costs. Extreme weather in Henan caused 15 days of partial road closures in 2025, producing about RMB 80 million of lost toll revenue and RMB 120 million in repair costs for flood-damaged embankments during the latest fiscal cycle. New environmental rules requiring 'Zero-Waste' construction may add ~7% to project costs beginning in 2026. Noise-reduction compliance in urban residential zones requires approximately RMB 300 million of capital expenditure. Climate-related insurance premiums for infrastructure assets rose 12% at the 2025 renewal, increasing annual insurance spend materially.

• Quantified revenue exposures: RMB 450M (toll expiries), RMB 275M (macroeconomic freight drop), RMB 256M (rail-induced freight shift).
• Cost and capital pressures: RMB 200M incremental OPEX (inflation), RMB 300M mandated CAPEX (noise barriers), RMB 120M repairs (flood damage).
• Regulatory and market elasticity: 1.5% passenger volume loss per 5% rail efficiency gain; 2.3% gross margin compression from green-truck toll discounts.