Potbelly Corporation (PBPB): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el mundo dinámico de la comida rápida, Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) navega por un complejo panorama de desafíos y oportunidades. Desde las preferencias de los consumidores cambiantes hasta las interrupciones tecnológicas, este análisis integral de mortero revela los intrincados factores externos que dan forma a la trayectoria estratégica de la compañía. Coloque profundamente en la dinámica política, económica, sociológica, tecnológica, legal y ambiental que determinará la resistencia y la ventaja competitiva de Potbelly en una industria de restaurantes cada vez más volátil.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Legislación de salario mínimo de la industria de restaurantes

A partir de 2024, el salario mínimo federal sigue siendo $ 7.25 por hora. Sin embargo, las tasas de salario mínimo a nivel estatal varían significativamente:

Estado	Tasa de salario mínimo	Impacto en Potbelly
California	$ 15.50/hora	Alto impacto en el costo laboral
Nueva York	$ 15.00/hora	Gastos operativos significativos
Illinois	$ 14.00/hora	Aumento moderado de costos de mano de obra

Políticas comerciales y cadena de suministro de alimentos

Tasas arancelas actuales que afectan la cadena de suministro de alimentos:

• Aranceles de importación de carne: 26.4%
• Tarifas de productos lácteos: 17.3%
• Producir tarifas de importación: 12.8%

Regulaciones de seguridad alimentaria del gobierno

Requisitos de cumplimiento regulatorio clave:

Regulación	Costo de cumplimiento anual
Ley de modernización de seguridad alimentaria de la FDA	$85,000 - $120,000
Protocolos de inspección del USDA	$45,000 - $65,000

Consideraciones de la política fiscal

Implicaciones fiscales actuales para las operaciones de restaurantes:

• Tasa de impuestos corporativos: 21%
• Sección 179 Límite de deducción del equipo: $ 1,160,000
• Deducción de gastos de comida del restaurante: 50%

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Incertidumbre económica continua que impacta el gasto gastronómico de los consumidores

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, Potbelly Corporation reportó ingresos totales de $ 118.2 millones, lo que representa una disminución del 3.4% del mismo período en 2022. El gasto de comidas de consumo mostró volatilidad, con valores de transacción promedio que fluctúan entre $ 12.50 y $ 14.75.

Métrico	Valor 2023	Cambio año tras año
Ingresos totales	$ 118.2 millones	-3.4%
Valor de transacción promedio	$13.62	+2.1%
Ventas en la misma tienda	-1.7%	Crecimiento negativo

Inflación presionar alimentos y costos operativos

La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales de los Estados Unidos informó que la inflación de los costos de los alimentos en 5.8% en 2023, impactando directamente los gastos operativos de Potbelly. Los costos de los alimentos como porcentaje de ingresos aumentaron de 28.5% en 2022 a 31.2% en 2023.

Categoría de costos	2022 porcentaje	2023 porcentaje	Aumentar
Costos de alimentos	28.5%	31.2%	2.7%
Costos laborales	33.6%	35.1%	1.5%

Mercado competitivo de restaurantes rápidos casuales con estrechos márgenes de ganancias

El segmento de restaurantes casuales rápidos mostró un margen de beneficio promedio de 3-5%en 2023. El margen bruto de Potbelly se encontraba en 4.2%, ligeramente por debajo de la mediana de la industria del 4.7%.

Métrica de rentabilidad	Potbelly Corporation	Mediana de la industria
Margen bruto	4.2%	4.7%
Margen de beneficio neto	1.1%	2.3%

Riesgos potenciales de recesión que afectan los gastos gastronómicos discrecionales

El gasto de los consumidores en cenar disminuyó en un 2,3% en 2023, con gastos discrecionales de restaurantes que muestran una mayor sensibilidad a la incertidumbre económica. El recuento de restaurantes de Potbelly se mantuvo estable en 384 ubicaciones en todo el país.

Indicador económico	Valor 2023	Cambio de 2022
Gastos de comidas discrecionales	-2.3%	Rechazar
Número de ubicaciones de Potbelly	384	Estable

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Aumento de la preferencia del consumidor por opciones de alimentos más saludables y personalizables

Según el informe de tendencia de consumo de alimentación saludable 2023 de Technomic, el 73% de los consumidores buscan opciones de menú más saludables. El modelo de personalización de Potbelly se alinea con esta tendencia, lo que permite 4-6 modificaciones de ingredientes por sándwich.

Preferencia de salud del consumidor	Porcentaje
Buscar opciones de restaurantes más saludables	73%
Prefiere comidas personalizables	68%
Considere importantes las etiquetas de nutrición	62%

Creciente demanda de pedidos digitales y experiencias gastronómicas sin contacto

Los ingresos por pedidos digitales alcanzaron los $ 154.1 mil millones en 2023, lo que representa el 39% de las ventas totales de restaurantes. Las ventas digitales de Potbelly aumentaron 22.4% en el tercer trimestre de 2023, representando el 41.2% de las ventas totales.

Métricas de pedidos digitales	Valor
Ingresos totales de pedidos digitales	$ 154.1 mil millones
Porcentaje de ventas digitales de PotBelly	41.2%
Crecimiento de las ventas digitales	22.4%

Consumidores de Millennial y Gen Z que buscan experiencias gastronómicas únicas

El 75% de los millennials y la generación Z priorizan las experiencias de los restaurantes sobre la comida tradicional. Los restaurantes de estilo vintage de Potbelly atraen a 25-40 edades demográficas, con el 58% de los clientes en este segmento.

Preferencia de experiencia del consumidor	Porcentaje
Millennials/Gen Z buscando experiencias únicas	75%
Clientes de Potbelly de 25 a 40 años	58%
Prefiere espacios de comedor dignos de Instagram	62%

Cambiar hacia modelos de restaurantes de conveniencia y servicio rápido

El mercado de restaurantes de servicio rápido proyectado para alcanzar los $ 1.1 billones para 2024. El tiempo de transacción promedio de Potbelly es de 7.3 minutos, competitivo dentro del segmento casual rápido.

Métricas de restaurantes de servicio rápido	Valor
Tamaño de mercado proyectado para 2024	$ 1.1 billones
Tiempo de transacción promedio de potbelly	7.3 minutos
Tasa de crecimiento del mercado	4.5%

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Inversión continua en plataformas de pedidos digitales y aplicaciones móviles

En el tercer trimestre de 2023, PotBelly reportó el 19.4% del total de ventas generadas a través de canales digitales. Las descargas de aplicaciones móviles de la compañía aumentaron en un 12.7% en comparación con el año anterior. La inversión en la plataforma digital alcanzó los $ 2.3 millones en 2023.

Métrico de canal digital	2023 rendimiento
Porcentaje de ventas digitales	19.4%
Crecimiento de descargas de aplicaciones móviles	12.7%
Inversión de plataforma digital	$ 2.3 millones

Implementación de la personalización de la experiencia del cliente impulsada por la IA

PotBelly asignó $ 1.7 millones para la implementación de tecnología de IA en 2023. El algoritmo de personalización actualmente admite el 37% de las características de recomendación del cliente.

Métrica de personalización de IA	2023 datos
Inversión tecnológica de IA	$ 1.7 millones
Cobertura de recomendación del cliente	37%

Programa de lealtad mejorado a través de la integración de tecnología digital

El programa de lealtad digital de Potbelly llegó a 215,000 miembros activos en 2023, lo que representa un aumento del 16.5% desde 2022. El programa generó $ 4.6 millones en ingresos rastreados.

Métrica del programa de fidelización	2023 rendimiento
Miembros de lealtad activos	215,000
Crecimiento año tras año	16.5%
Ingresos del programa de fidelización	$ 4.6 millones

Explorando la automatización en operaciones de cocina y procesamiento de pedidos

Potbelly invirtió $ 3.2 millones en tecnologías de automatización de cocina en 2023. La cobertura de automatización actual incluye el 24% de los flujos de trabajo de procesamiento de pedidos y el 18% de las tareas de preparación de la cocina.

Métrico de automatización	2023 datos
Inversión en tecnología de automatización	$ 3.2 millones
Automatización de procesamiento de pedidos	24%
Automatización de preparación de la cocina	18%

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones de seguridad y salud alimentaria

Potbelly Corporation enfrenta estrictos requisitos de cumplimiento regulatorio en múltiples jurisdicciones:

Cuerpo regulador	Métrico de cumplimiento	Tasa de inspección anual
Regulaciones de seguridad alimentaria de la FDA	Requerido 100% de cumplimiento	2-4 inspecciones por restaurante anualmente
Departamentos estatales de salud	Certificaciones obligatorias de manipulación de alimentos	Renovación anual requerida
Pautas de seguridad alimentaria del USDA	Normas de trazabilidad de ingredientes	Auditorías de documentación trimestrales

Desafíos potenciales de la ley laboral en la gestión de la fuerza laboral de restaurantes

Métricas clave de cumplimiento de la ley laboral:

• Cumplimiento del salario mínimo: $ 7.25 línea de base federal
• Regulaciones de horas extras: 1.5x PAGO por horas superiores a 40/semana
• Precisión de clasificación de los empleados: 98.6% reportó cumplimiento

Categoría de derecho laboral	Riesgo legal potencial	Costo de mitigación
Disputas salariales	Riesgo medio-alto	$ 250,000- $ 500,000 anualmente
Discriminación en el lugar de trabajo	Riesgo de bajo medio	$ 150,000- $ 300,000 anualmente

Protección de propiedad intelectual para innovaciones de menú

Estrategia de protección de propiedad intelectual de Potbelly:

• Registros de marcas registradas: 12 marcas comerciales activas relacionadas con el menú
• Presupuesto de protección de secreto comercial: $ 75,000 anualmente
• Protección legal para recetas únicas: monitoreo continuo

Adherencia a las regulaciones de privacidad y ciberseguridad de datos

Regulación	Requisito de cumplimiento	Inversión anual de cumplimiento
CCPA (California)	100% de protección de datos del cliente	$425,000
GDPR (internacional)	Protocolos de manejo de datos estrictos	$350,000
PCI DSS (seguridad de pago)	Cifrado de extremo a extremo	$275,000

Métricas de ciberseguridad:

• Presupuesto anual de ciberseguridad: $ 1.2 millones
• Inversión de prevención de violación de datos: $ 850,000
• Tasa de éxito de la auditoría de cumplimiento: 99.7%

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Aumento del enfoque en prácticas sostenibles de abastecimiento de alimentos

Potbelly Corporation reportó $ 440.4 millones en ingresos totales para 2022, con el 5.8% de los proveedores comprometidos con prácticas de abastecimiento sostenibles. La compañía obtuvo el 12.3% de los ingredientes de los productores locales dentro de un radio de 250 millas de ubicaciones de restaurantes.

Métrica de abastecimiento sostenible	Porcentaje	Volumen (libras)
Abastecimiento de ingredientes locales	12.3%	483,000
Proveedores sostenibles certificados	5.8%	227,200

Reducción de plásticos de un solo uso en el embalaje de restaurantes

Potbelly redujo el envasado de plástico de un solo uso en un 22.7% en 2022, eliminando aproximadamente 67,500 libras de desechos plásticos. La compañía invirtió $ 1.2 millones en alternativas de envasado sostenible.

Métrica de reducción de plástico	Valor	Impacto en el costo
Desechos plásticos eliminados	67,500 libras	$1,200,000
Porcentaje de reducción de envasado	22.7%	N / A

Iniciativas de eficiencia energética en operaciones de restaurantes

Potbelly implementó medidas de eficiencia energética en 470 ubicaciones de restaurantes, reduciendo el consumo de energía en un 16,4%. Los ahorros de costos de energía total alcanzaron $ 2.3 millones en 2022.

Métrica de eficiencia energética	Valor	Impacto financiero
Ubicaciones totales de restaurantes	470	N / A
Reducción del consumo de energía	16.4%	$2,300,000

Estrategias potenciales de reducción de huella de carbono

Potbelly se dirigió a una reducción de emisiones de carbono del 15,6% en las operaciones de los restaurantes. La compañía asignó $ 3.7 millones para iniciativas de neutralidad de carbono en 2022.

Métrica de reducción de carbono	Porcentaje objetivo	Inversión
Reducción de emisiones de carbono	15.6%	$3,700,000

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Strong consumer shift towards healthier, customizable meal options

You're seeing a clear, sustained shift in the fast-casual space: consumers want control over what they eat, and they want it to feel fresh and healthier. This isn't a fad; it's a structural change. The fast-casual market's growth is fundamentally driven by this demand for fresh, customizable, and high-quality meals. Potbelly Corporation is directly addressing this by positioning its core offering-customized, toasted sandwiches-alongside lighter options.

For instance, the company offers its 'Skinny' sandwiches, which contain about one-third less bread, meat, and cheese, typically falling under 400 calories. They also provide flat bread and multi-grain breads to appeal to the health-conscious customer. This focus on customization, where guests can choose their own proteins, sauces, and toppings, is a critical element of the brand's appeal in 2025, especially as 77% of consumers cite affordability and value-based choices as their number one purchase driver. That's a huge number you can't ignore.

Increased demand for convenience, driving reliance on delivery and takeout

The demand for convenience has fundamentally re-wired how people buy food, and Potbelly's digital channel is now a major revenue engine. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company's digital business represented over 42% of total shop sales, marking a significant 200 basis point increase year-over-year. This digital penetration is industry-leading and shows the success of their investment in the Potbelly Perks loyalty program and the overall digital platform.

The fast-casual model lends itself perfectly to this trend because the food travels well. Potbelly is capitalizing on this by continuously enhancing its catering channel, which remains a core growth driver. The entire industry is seeing a turbocharge in delivery and takeout, and Potbelly is well-positioned with its digital-first strategy.

Labor shortages necessitate higher wages and better benefits to retain staff

Honestly, labor remains the single biggest operational headache for the restaurant industry in 2025. While the quick-service and fast-casual segments have seen employment levels rise by 107,000 jobs (or 2.4%) above pre-pandemic levels as of August 2025, the competition for talent is intense. This persistent shortage forces companies like Potbelly to increase wages and benefits, which directly pressures margins.

Here's the quick math on the cost pressure: Potbelly's Labor and related expenses were $33.097 million in Q1 2025, representing 30.4% of net sandwich shop sales, and $33.210 million in Q2 2025. This percentage is in the upper range of the typical 25-35% benchmark for the industry. To mitigate this, the company has focused on operational discipline, which helped expand shop-level margins to 13.7% in Q1 2025, partly through improved staffing and turnover metrics.

Potbelly Corporation Labor & Related Expenses (2025)	Q1 2025 (in thousands)	% of Net Sandwich Shop Sales	Q2 2025 (in thousands)	% of Net Sandwich Shop Sales
Labor and related expenses	$33,097	30.4%	$33,210	28.0%

Focus on corporate social responsibility (CSR) influences brand perception

A company's values are now part of the product, and consumers-especially younger ones-are watching. Potbelly understands that a focus on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is essential for brand loyalty and goodwill. Their core values include 'Community Connection' and 'Employee Well-being,' which translate into concrete actions.

They defintely need to keep this up.

• Community Support: Engages with local communities and partners with charities to foster a neighborhood gathering place image.
• Employee Welfare: Operates the Potbelly GiVes employee relief program, a 501(c)(3) fund, to support team members facing catastrophic emergencies.
• Ethical Sourcing: Maintains a Supplier Code of Conduct and is committed to exclusively sourcing cage-free eggs for all primary eggs by the end of 2026.
• Diversity & Inclusion: Actively promotes an inclusive work environment and maintains a non-discrimination policy.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

The core technological factor for Potbelly Corporation is its successful pivot to a digital-first operating model, which now acts as the primary driver of same-store sales growth and operational efficiency. The near-term opportunity lies in translating its back-of-house digitization into a clear labor cost advantage, but this is balanced by the rising and inevitable risk of managing a much larger customer data footprint.

Digital Sales Channels (App, Web) Account for Over 40% of Total Sales

You can't talk about Potbelly's 2025 performance without starting here: the company's digital business is no longer a side channel-it's the main highway. In the second quarter of 2025, digital sales represented over 41% of total shop sales, a significant jump from prior years. This momentum, which contributed to a total revenue of $123.7 million in Q2 2025, is directly tied to investments in a rebuilt website and mobile app.

The digital platform, including the Potbelly Perks loyalty program, is designed for speed and personalization. It allows for one-click ordering and quick reward redemption, which is defintely a necessary feature in the fast-casual space. This focus is what drove a 3.2% increase in company-operated same-store sales for the quarter.

Operational Efficiency and Kitchen Digitization

The next wave of technology is moving beyond the customer interface and into the kitchen, aiming to cut down on prep time and waste. Potbelly is standardizing its new 1,800-square-foot shop prototype, which is about 500 square feet smaller than older formats, to optimize digital transactions and streamline operations. Here's the quick math: a smaller footprint and more efficient layout means lower development costs, which are already coming in below the chain's historical average of $650,000 per unit.

The heart of this is the new Digital Kitchen platform, which includes:

• Kitchen Display Systems (KDS): Replacing paper tickets to manage order flow.
• Upgraded POS: Improving transaction speed and accuracy.
• Back-of-House Workflow Tools: The foundational technology for what will eventually become AI-driven inventory and labor scheduling.

This digitization, including employees using handheld devices during peak hours (PDCX), is key to maintaining a quick speed of service, a critical factor when 41% of orders are off-premise.

Cybersecurity Risks Increase with Expanded Customer Data Handling

The trade-off for this digital growth is a significant increase in data liability. Potbelly's strategy is explicitly focused on using 'data and analytics' to create personalized digital and loyalty experiences, including 'tailored menus, relevant offers, and real-time communications based on behavior and location'. This level of personalization requires collecting and securely storing vast amounts of sensitive customer behavior data.

For a growing company with a market capitalization of approximately $381.3 million as of Q2 2025, a major data breach could lead to substantial financial penalties and severely damage the loyalty program that drives over 40% of sales. Therefore, the investment in consumer-facing digital assets must be matched by an equally robust, if not greater, investment in cybersecurity infrastructure and data governance.

Technological Factor	2025 Key Metric/Value	Strategic Impact
Digital Sales Penetration	Over 41% of total shop sales (Q2 2025)	Shifts business model from in-store traffic to omni-channel convenience; drives same-store sales growth of 3.2%.
New Shop Prototype (Size/Cost)	1,800 square feet (approx. 500 sq. ft. reduction)	Lowers development costs below historical $650,000 average; enables faster unit expansion and better franchise unit economics.
Back-of-House Digitization	Digital Kitchen platform (KDS, upgraded POS, workflow tools)	Improves speed of service and order accuracy; lays groundwork for future AI-driven inventory and labor management.
Data & Analytics Investment	Focus on 'data and analytics' for personalized offers	Increases customer lifetime value via tailored marketing; significantly elevates the company's cybersecurity and data privacy risk profile.

Finance: Mandate an external audit of customer data security protocols against the new Q2 2025 digital sales volume by the end of the year.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Food safety and hygiene standards require rigorous, documented compliance.

The quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry is under constant, intense scrutiny from federal, state, and local regulatory bodies on food safety. Potbelly Corporation must adhere to strict standards set by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and local health departments, which mandates rigorous, documented compliance across its entire system, including franchised locations.

While the specific dollar amount for 2025 compliance costs isn't broken out, Potbelly dedicates substantial resources to food safety, including leveraging third-party companies to conduct food safety assessments and provide customer service feedback. A single, major food-borne illness incident could trigger massive litigation, fines, and a significant, immediate drop in sales, so this is a cost of doing business that cannot be cut. Consumer reaction to any perceived food safety issue is a clear and present reputational risk.

Franchise agreements and disclosure laws govern the 'Franchise First' expansion model.

Potbelly's 'Franchise First' growth strategy, which aims to accelerate unit growth, is fundamentally governed by complex franchise disclosure laws, primarily the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) Franchise Rule and various state-specific franchise laws. This requires meticulous preparation and annual updating of the Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD).

The legal complexity increases with the pace of expansion. In the first half of fiscal year 2025, the company signed a total of 94 new franchise shop commitments (40 in Q1 and 54 in Q2). As of June 29, 2025, the total count of open and committed shops stood at 816. Each new agreement requires legal review to manage risk, especially regarding the exclusive Shop Development Area Agreements (SDAAs) used for multi-unit operators.

Here's a quick snapshot of the 'Franchise First' expansion momentum in 2025:

Metric	Q1 2025 (as of March 30)	Q2 2025 (as of June 29)
New Franchise Shop Commitments Signed	40	54
Total Open and Committed Shop Count	766	816
Initial Franchise Fee (Per Location)	$20,000 - $40,000 (2025 FDD)	$20,000 - $40,000 (2025 FDD)
Estimated Initial Investment Range	$654,000 - $1,274,000 (2025 FDD)	$654,000 - $1,274,000 (2025 FDD)

Data privacy laws (e.g., CCPA) mandate strict handling of customer information.

Potbelly's growing digital business, including its mobile app and online ordering platform, significantly increases its exposure to data privacy laws like the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) and other emerging state regulations. The company collects, processes, and retains sensitive personal information, including credit card and geo-location data, which is a major legal and compliance risk.

The constant evolution of these laws means compliance is not a one-time fix; it's a defintely ongoing operational expense. The complexity of these rules can result in significant costs from compliance efforts and from non-compliance penalties. For a company of Potbelly's size, general estimates for initial CCPA compliance costs alone can be up to $2 million, plus ongoing annual technology costs. Plus, the company relies on third-party delivery partners who own customer data for orders placed on their platforms, creating an additional layer of legal risk and competitive disadvantage.

Litigation risk related to employment practices and wage disputes remains high.

Employment practices litigation, particularly class action lawsuits concerning wage and hour disputes, is a high-frequency risk in the restaurant sector, and Potbelly is not immune. This legal exposure is concentrated in states with stringent labor laws.

A concrete example from 2025 is the proposed class action settlement in Washington state concerning alleged violations of the Washington Equal Pay and Opportunities Act. This law requires employers to disclose wage and salary information to job applicants.

The financial impact of this litigation is significant in 2025:

• The proposed class action settlement, preliminarily approved in May 2025, established a settlement fund with a minimum payment of $1,688,940 and a maximum payment of $2,706,000.
• The final fairness hearing is scheduled for October 10, 2025.
• In a related legal action, Potbelly Corporation filed a lawsuit in March 2025 against its employment practices liability insurer, Beazley Insurance Company Inc., seeking a declaratory judgment for defense and indemnity coverage for the underlying class action.

This situation shows that employment-related legal costs are a two-pronged threat: the cost of the settlement itself, plus the secondary litigation costs to secure insurance coverage. The core action for management is to ensure all job postings and hiring practices are immediately updated to comply with all state-level wage transparency laws to mitigate future, similar class action risk.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental pressure points for Potbelly Corporation are translating directly into margin volatility, especially through packaging and commodity costs. You need to look past the slight commodity deflation reported in Q1 2025, because the structural costs of sustainable packaging and long-term climate-driven volatility in beef and wheat are the real threats to your food, beverage, and packaging (FBP) line item.

Consumer preference for sustainable packaging drives up material costs

Customer demand for eco-friendly options is a non-negotiable trend, but it comes with a hefty price tag on the supply side. The raw materials for plant-based plastics (biopolymers) and compostable packaging generally cost 20% to 50% more than their traditional petroleum-based counterparts. This cost premium hits your FBP line, which stood at $28.451 million in Q1 2025, representing 26.1% of sandwich shop sales. Even though your Q1 2025 FBP cost percentage improved by 110 basis points year-over-year due to strong commodity management, the underlying structural cost of packaging is rising.

To be fair, this is also a major opportunity. About 73% of US consumers prefer compostable food packaging and are often willing to pay a slight price increase for it. This means you can raise prices to offset the material cost, but you have to defintely nail the execution. Paper and paperboard, a core material for a sandwich shop, is projected to account for 42.8% of the biodegradable food packaging market in 2025, which gives you a clear path for sourcing, but the cost pressure is still real.

Increased scrutiny on food waste reduction and disposal practices

Mandatory food waste diversion is quickly moving from a regional trend to a national regulatory reality, especially in states where Potbelly has a significant presence. This requires an operational shift from simple trash disposal to complex organics recycling (composting).

For instance, in California, Senate Bill 1383 sets a 2025 goal to reduce organic waste disposal by 75%. Similarly, in Washington, businesses generating four cubic yards or more of organic waste per week must arrange for composting or organics recycling by the end of 2025. This means every shop in these regions needs new bins, new waste collection contracts, and significant employee training, all of which drive up your 'Other Operating Expenses,' which totaled $21.808 million in Q2 2025. This is a compliance cost, not a choice.

• Implement food waste tracking systems to cut spoilage.
• Negotiate new organics collection contracts in high-regulation states.
• Train all new hires on waste segregation on day one.

Energy consumption regulations for commercial kitchens impact operating expenses

New energy efficiency standards for commercial kitchens, often driven by state-level building codes, are forcing capital investment into more efficient equipment. While the initial CapEx is high, the long-term operational savings are compelling. Refrigeration alone can account for 40% to 60% of a QSR's total energy use, making high-efficiency coolers and freezers a priority investment.

In new construction or major remodels, technologies like Demand Control Kitchen Ventilation (DCKV) are becoming standard. In California, for example, the estimated benefit-to-cost ratio for mandating DCKV in commercial kitchens over a 30-year period is a remarkable 15.9. This means every dollar spent on DCKV saves nearly sixteen dollars in energy over the equipment's lifetime. You need to bake these efficiency upgrades into your new franchise build-out model to maintain a competitive operating expense structure.

Climate change affects commodity prices and supply chain reliability

Climate volatility is permanently increasing the risk premium on your core ingredients. The slight commodity deflation of 40 basis points you saw in Q1 2025 was a momentary relief, but the long-term outlook for key inputs is inflationary and wildly unpredictable. This is a major factor in your Food, Beverage, and Packaging costs, which hit $31.110 million in Q2 2025.

The biggest near-term risk is protein. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase by 22.5% in 2025, with wholesale beef prices expected to rise by 12.0% due to tight cattle supplies. While farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease by 11.1% in 2025, the market is highly sensitive to Black Sea logistics and US weather, causing wild price swings. This unpredictability makes long-term procurement hedging a critical, but difficult, action.

Here's the quick math on labor: If a shop operates 16 hours a day with 5 employees at $\mathbf{\$18}$/hour, that's $\mathbf{\$1,440}$ in daily labor just for a single shift, a massive fixed cost. The only way out is higher volume through digital channels and franchising. Finance: model a 100-basis-point margin compression for every $\mathbf{\$1}$ increase in average hourly wage by Friday.

Commodity Group	2025 Price Outlook (Year-over-Year Change)	Primary Environmental Driver	Impact on Potbelly Menu
Beef (Farm-Level)	Predicted to increase by 22.5%	Drought-driven cyclical herd contraction	Roast Beef, Meatballs (High-cost protein risk)
Wheat (Farm-Level)	Predicted to decrease by 11.1%	Geopolitical volatility, US crop outlook	Bread, Sandwich Rolls (High-volume staple risk)
Dairy/Milk (Farm-Level)	Predicted to decrease by 1.2%	Increased production offsetting input costs	Cheese, Milk/Shakes (Stable, but watch for regional spikes)
Sustainable Packaging	Raw material cost premium of 20-50%	Consumer preference, regulatory mandates (e.g., plastic bans)	All takeout/delivery orders (Structural cost increase)