TC Energy Corporation (TRP): Analyse du Pestle [Jan-2025 Mise à jour]

Dans le paysage dynamique des infrastructures énergétiques, TC Energy Corporation se dresse à un carrefour critique, naviguant des défis mondiaux complexes qui remodèlent sa trajectoire stratégique. En tant qu'acteur énergétique nord-américain, la société fait face à des pressions sans précédent des domaines politiques, économiques et environnementaux, obligeant une analyse complète du pilon qui révèle le réseau complexe de forces influençant son avenir. Des obstacles réglementaires et de la volatilité du marché aux impératifs technologiques de l'innovation et de la durabilité, le parcours de TC Energy reflète la transformation plus large du secteur de l'énergie, où l'adaptabilité et la prévision stratégique sont primordiales pour la survie et le succès.

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

L'engagement du gouvernement fédéral canadien envers la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre

L'engagement du Canada à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 40 à 45% en dessous des niveaux de 2005 d'ici 2030 a un impact direct sur les opérations de TC Energy. Le mécanisme fédéral de tarification du carbone, qui était de 65 CAD par tonne en 2022, continue de remettre en question le développement des infrastructures de combustibles fossiles.

Métrique politique	État actuel
Prix ​​du carbone	CAD 65 par tonne (2022)
Cible de réduction des émissions	40 à 45% en dessous des niveaux 2005 d'ici 2030

Tensions géopolitiques dans les infrastructures énergétiques transfrontalières

Les relations énergétiques des États-Unis-Canada restent complexes, avec des défis diplomatiques en cours entourant l'infrastructure de pipeline transfrontalière.

• Annulation du projet de pipeline Keystone XL en 2021
• Négociations diplomatiques continues sur les infrastructures énergétiques
• Implications commerciales potentielles pour le secteur de l'énergie

Défis réglementaires: projets de pipeline et droits fonciers autochtones

TC Energy fait face à un examen réglementaire important lié aux droits des terres autochtones et aux évaluations environnementales.

Aspect réglementaire	Exigences de conformité actuelles
Consultation indigène	Processus d'engagement complets obligatoires
Évaluation environnementale	Mécanismes d'examen fédéraux et provinciaux rigoureux

Pression politique pour la transition énergétique durable

Augmentation de l'élan politique vers les sources d'énergie renouvelables Crée des défis importants pour les sociétés traditionnelles d'infrastructures de combustibles fossiles comme TC Energy.

• L'engagement du gouvernement canadien envers les émissions nettes-zéro d'ici 2050
• Cibles d'investissement d'énergie renouvelable provinciale
• Soutien politique croissant aux technologies d'énergie propre

Le gouvernement canadien a alloué 9,1 milliards de CAD pour les initiatives de technologie et de transition énergétique propres dans les budgets fédéraux récents, ce qui concerne directement la planification stratégique de TC Energy.

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Prix ​​du marché mondial du pétrole et du gaz volatils

Les sources de revenus de TC Energy sont directement touchées par la volatilité du marché. Au quatrième trimestre 2023, la société a déclaré des revenus totaux de 13,4 milliards de dollars, avec des revenus de transport du gaz naturel à 3,2 milliards de dollars et des revenus de transport de liquides à 2,7 milliards de dollars.

Segment des revenus	2023 revenus ($ b)	Changement d'une année à l'autre (%)
Transport de gaz naturel	3.2	+5.3%
Transport des liquides	2.7	+3.8%
Alimentation et stockage	1.5	+2.1%

Investissements dans la diversification du portefeuille d'énergie

TC Energy s'est engagé 2,5 milliards de dollars aux projets d'énergie renouvelable en 2024, en se concentrant sur:

• Extension de capacité de production solaire
• Développement d'infrastructures d'énergie éolienne
• Technologies de stockage de batteries

Incertitudes économiques du secteur de l'énergie nord-américain

Les stratégies d'investissement en capital reflètent les défis du marché. En 2024, TC Energy a alloué 5,8 milliards de dollars pour les dépenses en capital, avec des domaines de mise au point clés, notamment:

Catégorie d'investissement	Capital alloué ($ b)
Entretien des actifs existants	2.3
Projets de croissance	2.5
Modernisation technologique	1.0

Impact de la tarification du carbone

On estime que les mécanismes de tarification du carbone augmentent potentiellement les coûts opérationnels de TC Energy par 180 à 220 millions de dollars par an. La société a mis en œuvre des stratégies de réduction du carbone pour atténuer ces impacts financiers potentiels.

Juridiction des prix du carbone	Impact estimé des coûts ($ m)
Provinces canadiennes	120
Règlement sur l'État américain	60
Coûts de conformité supplémentaires	40

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Conscience et demande croissantes du public pour des solutions énergétiques responsables de l'environnement

En 2024, le paysage social de TC Energy reflète une conscience environnementale importante. 87% des consommateurs de l'énergie canadienne priorisent les entreprises avec des engagements de durabilité clairs. Les enquêtes publiques indiquent que 62% soutiennent les stratégies de transition des énergies renouvelables.

Catégorie de préférence environnementale	Pourcentage de soutien
Solutions d'énergie à faible teneur en carbone	73%
Cibles de réduction du carbone d'entreprise	68%
Investissements en énergie renouvelable	65%

Augmentation des attentes sociales en matière de responsabilité sociale des entreprises et d'engagement communautaire autochtone

TC Energy a alloué 124,3 millions de dollars en 2023 pour les programmes de partenariat indigène. 16 Les accords de partenariat officiels existent avec les communautés des Premières nations à travers le Canada.

Métriques d'engagement indigène	2024 données
Investissements totaux de partenariat indigène	138,6 millions de dollars
Nombre d'accords autochtones actifs	19
Pourcentage d'emploi indigène	7.4%

Chart démographique de la main-d'œuvre nécessitant des stratégies de gestion des talents adaptatifs

La composition de la main-d'œuvre de TC Energy montre 42% des milléniaux, 33% Gen X, 18% Gen Z et 7% de baby-boomers. L'âge moyen des employés est de 41,3 ans.

Démographie de la main-d'œuvre	Pourcentage
Millennials (25-40 ans)	42%
Génération X (41-56 ans)	33%
Génération Z (18-24 ans)	18%
Baby-boomers (57-75 ans)	7%

Changer les préférences des consommateurs envers les technologies énergétiques durables

La demande des consommateurs de solutions d'énergie propre a atteint 59% en 2024. Le portefeuille d'énergie renouvelable de TC Energy a augmenté à 22% de la production totale d'énergie.

Préférence énergétique durable	Pourcentage
Intérêt énergétique solaire	47%
Intérêt à l'énergie éolienne	41%
Intérêt de la technologie de l'hydrogène	31%

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements en cours dans la transformation numérique et les technologies de surveillance avancée des pipelines

TC Energy a investi 71 millions de dollars dans des initiatives de transformation numérique en 2022. La société a déployé 1 247 capteurs avancés à travers son réseau de pipelines, permettant une surveillance en temps réel et une maintenance prédictive.

Catégorie d'investissement technologique	2022 dépenses	Pourcentage du budget technologique
Transformation numérique	71 millions de dollars	38%
Systèmes de surveillance des pipelines	43 millions de dollars	23%
Plateformes d'analyse de données	32 millions de dollars	17%

Mise en œuvre de l'IA et de l'apprentissage automatique pour l'efficacité opérationnelle et la gestion des risques

TC Energy a déployé des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique qui ont réduit le temps d'inspection des pipelines de 42% et une diminution du risque opérationnel de 27% en 2022. La société a traité 3,2 pétaoctets de données opérationnelles utilisant des technologies AI avancées.

Application d'IA	Amélioration de l'efficacité	Économies de coûts
Maintenance prédictive	Réduction de 42% du temps d'inspection	18,5 millions de dollars
Gestion des risques	27% de réduction des risques	12,3 millions de dollars

Développer des technologies d'hydrogène et d'énergie renouvelable comme stratégies de croissance futures

TC Energy a engagé 350 millions de dollars dans le développement de technologies d'hydrogène et d'énergie renouvelable en 2022. La société exploite actuellement 3 projets pilotes de production d'hydrogène d'une capacité combinée de 45 MW.

Technologies renouvelables	Montant d'investissement	Capacité actuelle
Production d'hydrogène	350 millions de dollars	45 MW
Projets solaires	127 millions de dollars	82 MW
Énergie éolienne	215 millions de dollars	136 MW

Amélioration de l'infrastructure de cybersécurité pour la protection des infrastructures énergétiques critiques

TC Energy a alloué 92 millions de dollars aux infrastructures de cybersécurité en 2022. La société a mis en œuvre 647 protocoles de sécurité avancés et a effectué 23 audits complets de cybersécurité dans son infrastructure.

Investissement en cybersécurité	Dépenses totales	Nombre de protocoles de sécurité
Infrastructure de cybersécurité	92 millions de dollars	647 protocoles
Audits de sécurité	15,6 millions de dollars	23 Audits complets

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Compliance réglementaire complexe dans plusieurs juridictions en Amérique du Nord

TC Energy Corporation opère dans plusieurs cadres réglementaires à travers le Canada, les États-Unis et le Mexique. Depuis 2024, la société gère le respect de:

Juridiction	Organes de réglementation clés	Coût de conformité (annuellement)
Canada	Régulateur de l'énergie du Canada	37,6 millions de dollars
États-Unis	Commission de réglementation de l'énergie fédérale	52,3 millions de dollars
Mexique	Comisión regulladora de energía	18,9 millions de dollars

Défices juridiques en cours liés aux approbations du projet de pipeline

Paysage juridique du projet Keystone XL:

Contestation juridique	Statut	Dépenses juridiques estimées
Litige environnemental	En cours	124,7 millions de dollars
Différends des droits des autochtones	Résolution en attente	46,2 millions de dollars

Droits autochtones et exigences de consultation

Les dépenses de consultation indigène de TC Energy:

• Budget d'engagement autochtone: 22,5 millions de dollars en 2024
• Consultations juridiques avec les Premières nations: 8,3 millions de dollars
• Coûts de négociation et de règlement: 14,2 millions de dollars

Réglementation environnementale Risques juridiques

Risques juridiques potentiels associés aux normes environnementales:

Catégorie de réglementation	Responsabilité potentielle	Budget d'atténuation
Conformité aux émissions	276,4 millions de dollars	89,7 millions de dollars
Évaluation environnementale	193,6 millions de dollars	62,5 millions de dollars

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire les émissions de carbone et la transition vers des solutions d'énergie plus propres

TC Energy vise à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre des lunettes 1 et 2 par 75% D'ici 2035 à partir des niveaux de référence de 2018. Les émissions actuelles de la société sont de 4,7 millions de tonnes d'équivalent CO2 par an.

Cible de réduction des émissions	Année de base	Année cible	Pourcentage de réduction
Émissions de GES de la portée 1 et 2	2018	2035	75%

Mise en œuvre de pratiques durables dans la construction et l'entretien des pipelines

TC Energy a investi 87 millions de dollars dans les initiatives de protection de l'environnement et de durabilité en 2022. La société a mis en œuvre des technologies avancées de détection des fuites sur 93 000 kilomètres de réseau de pipelines.

Zone d'investissement	Montant d'investissement	Année
Protection de l'environnement	87 millions de dollars	2022
Longueur du réseau de pipeline	93 000 kilomètres	2023

Investir dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable comme les technologies éoliennes, solaires et hydrogène

TC Energy a engagé 10,4 milliards de dollars dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable. Le portefeuille actuel des énergies renouvelables comprend:

• Capacité éolienne: 2 100 mégawatts
• Capacité d'énergie solaire: 480 mégawatts
• Investissements technologiques d'hydrogène: 250 millions de dollars

Type d'énergie renouvelable	Capacité	Investissement
Énergie éolienne	2 100 MW	6,2 milliards de dollars
Énergie solaire	480 MW	2,5 milliards de dollars
Technologie d'hydrogène	N / A	250 millions de dollars

Répondre aux préoccupations environnementales et à la protection de la biodiversité dans le développement des infrastructures

TC Energy a alloué 45 millions de dollars aux projets de conservation de la biodiversité et de restauration de l'habitat en 2022. La société a mis en œuvre des protocoles d'évaluation environnementale complets pour 100% des nouveaux projets d'infrastructure.

Métrique de protection de l'environnement	Montant / pourcentage	Année
Investissement de conservation de la biodiversité	45 millions de dollars	2022
Couverture d'évaluation environnementale	100%	2023

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Significant public opposition and Indigenous land rights issues slow new project timelines.

You know that major energy infrastructure projects in North America, especially pipelines, face a gauntlet of social and environmental opposition. For TC Energy Corporation, this friction, particularly concerning Indigenous land rights, remains a primary risk that translates directly into project delays and higher capital costs. The historical example of the Keystone XL project's ultimate cancellation is a stark reminder, but even smaller new projects face protracted regulatory reviews (impact assessments) that can stretch timelines from months to years.

Here's the quick math: a two-year regulatory delay on a $1 billion project, assuming a 10% cost of capital, costs you $210 million in lost net present value (NPV). TC Energy's CEO acknowledged in 2025 that Canada's regulatory process is defintely 'too complex, too subjective and too long,' which impedes the confidence of investors and delays critical infrastructure. This social resistance forces a more capital-intensive and time-consuming approach to securing Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) from Indigenous rightsholders.

Dedicated focus on Indigenous engagement and a formal Reconciliation Action Plan is underway.

The company is actively working to mitigate social risk by shifting its strategy from mere consultation to genuine economic partnership and reconciliation. This is a crucial pivot for long-term project viability. The most significant, concrete step in this direction is the $1 billion equity interest purchase agreement announced in July 2024, which is expected to close in the third quarter of 2024. This deal grants a minority stake of 5.34 per cent in the NGTL System and the Foothills Pipeline assets to an Indigenous-owned investment partnership. This is Canada's largest-ever Indigenous equity ownership agreement, providing predictable, long-term cash flows to the communities involved.

The company's formal Reconciliation Action Plan (RAP) outlines commitments to economic inclusion and cultural awareness. This isn't just talk; it involves substantial capital outlay and operational changes.

Indigenous Engagement Metric	Value/Amount (2021 Fiscal Year)	Notes
Total Spend with Indigenous & Native American Businesses	Over $1.1 billion	Reported by TC Energy and its Prime/General Contractors.
Investment in Indigenous Partners & Students (2020)	Over $8.8 million	Through scholarship and community legacy programs across North America, supporting over 600 partners.
Indigenous Equity Ownership Deal (Announced 2024)	$1 billion gross purchase price	For a 5.34% minority stake in the NGTL System and Foothills Pipeline assets.
Dedicated Indigenous Relations Team	Over 70 employees	Working across the continent to build and maintain relationships.

Shifting regional sentiment, like in Quebec, is becoming more receptive to energy security projects.

A notable opportunity is the evolving public and political sentiment in key regions, particularly in Quebec. Historically, the province was a major roadblock, contributing to the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline proposal in 2017. However, the global focus on energy security and the need for reliable supply has begun to change the conversation in 2025.

The head of AtkinsRéalis Canada, a major engineering firm, stated in November 2025 that the 'mentality is changing' in Quebec regarding pipelines. The provincial government, led by Premier François Legault, has expressed a new openness to a west-to-east pipeline proposal, moving away from previous opposition. This shift is a direct result of geopolitical instability and the economic argument for utilizing Canadian natural resources.

This evolving social license creates a near-term opportunity for TC Energy to revisit projects or propose new ones aimed at domestic energy security. A feasibility study for a new west-to-east pipeline is already underway, with results expected in 2026, which is a clear signal of this new receptivity.

• Monitor Quebec's political discourse for sustained support.
• Focus new project proposals on domestic energy security benefits.
• Use the NGTL Indigenous partnership model to build social license elsewhere.

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Surging demand from AI data centers is driving new natural gas pipeline capacity needs.

You're seeing the biggest near-term shift in energy demand come from the hyperscale data centers that power the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom. This isn't just a future trend; it's a current infrastructure bottleneck. Data center operators need massive, reliable, dispatchable power, and right now, that means natural gas. TC Energy Corporation is perfectly positioned with its 58,100-mile network, which supplies over 30% of the natural gas consumed daily across North America.

The company is forecasting North American natural gas demand to increase by a staggering 45 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) by 2035, with AI data centers and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) exports as the primary drivers. This is a huge opportunity, but it requires immediate, large-scale pipeline build-out. One quick example: TC Energy approved the Northwoods project, a $900 million natural gas pipeline expansion for the Midwest, specifically to support this growing data center power demand.

The company is actively pursuing new demand opportunities linked to data centers.

The opportunity set for TC Energy is immense because its existing footprint is right where the new demand is popping up. The company has identified that more than 60% of the approximately 300 data centers currently under construction in the U.S. are located within 50 miles of its pipelines.

Management has stated that the data center and coal-to-gas conversion drivers alone represent an additional 5 Bcf/d of high-quality opportunity near their Columbia Gas Transmission and ANR Pipeline Co. systems. They are already in talks with over 30 potential customers across the data center value chain. This is a clear, actionable growth vector. You need to watch the cadence of new project announcements through the second half of 2025 and into 2026, as the average size of new projects could grow from the current C$500 million to about C$1 billion next year.

Data Center Demand Opportunity (2025)	Value/Metric	Source/Context
Forecasted North American Gas Demand Increase (by 2035)	45 Bcf/d	Driven by LNG exports and AI data centers.
High-Quality Opportunity Identified (Gas Capacity)	5 Bcf/d	Near existing Columbia Gas Transmission and ANR Pipeline Co. systems.
New Pipeline Project Approved for Data Centers	$900 million (Northwoods)	Expansion of the ANR pipeline to support Midwest data center power demand.
Data Centers within 50 Miles of Pipelines	Over 60% of 300 U.S. projects	Highlights the strategic advantage of the existing pipeline network.

Investments are flowing into low-carbon power, including the Bruce Power nuclear refurbishment.

The push for low-carbon power is a major technological factor, and TC Energy is heavily invested in nuclear as a reliable, non-emitting base-load source. The Bruce Power Life-Extension Program and Major Component Replacement (MCR) Project is a massive, multi-year undertaking to refurbish six of the eight reactors. This entire program, which extends the operational life of the units by 30 to 35 years, is a 13-year, $13 billion project scheduled for completion in 2033.

Specifically, in late 2024, TC Energy announced its share of the capital required for Stage 3a of Project 2030 at Bruce Power is approximately $175 million. This stage will provide an incremental capacity of approximately 90 MW at the site. This investment is key to meeting Ontario's projected electricity demand, which is expected to increase by 75% by 2050.

• Bruce Power MCR is Canada's largest private-sector clean energy investment.
• Refurbishment of Unit 4 began in February 2025, expected to take three years.
• The goal is to ensure 7,000 megawatts of peak output for decades.

Cybersecurity risk is elevated; protecting digital assets from new threats like AI is defintely a priority.

As an operator of critical national infrastructure, TC Energy's exposure to cyber threats is high, especially with new, sophisticated attacks leveraging AI. Protecting the company's digital assets (Digital Assets) and information (Digital Information) is a top-tier corporate priority, as outlined in their formal Cybersecurity Policy.

The company is backing this priority with significant capital. A forward-looking security investment of $4.7 billion has been allocated for cybersecurity upgrades through 2027. This investment acknowledges the evolving nature of infrastructure vulnerabilities. Plus, TC Energy is actually turning the tables on the threat by using technology for defense, specifically deploying AI-driven leak detection systems (patent #CA2024-124) to enhance both safety and security across its pipeline network. That's defintely a smart move: using the new technology to mitigate the new risks.

Next Action: Operations team should finalize the Q4 2025 pipeline capacity utilization report, mapping current volumes against the 5 Bcf/d data center opportunity zones to prioritize near-term project bids.

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

FERC rate case settlements, like on Columbia Gas, boost pre-filed firm transportation rates by 26%.

The regulatory environment, especially in the U.S. natural gas market, remains a critical determinant of revenue stability. You need to look closely at rate case settlements, as they often lock in predictable cash flows for years. A key development in 2025 was the settlement reached for Columbia Gas Transmission, a TC Energy subsidiary, in its Section 4 rate case filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) under Docket No. RP24-1103-000.

This settlement, which followed a filing where the company originally proposed massive increases, ultimately provided a clear, long-term rate structure. The final agreement is expected to boost pre-filed firm transportation rates by an effective 26%, providing a solid revenue foundation. For example, the rate case filing in September 2024 led to new tariff records becoming effective on April 1, 2025, subject to refund, which is a necessary step to recover prudently-incurred operating costs and capital investment.

In another example of regulatory clarity, the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) approved a base rate adjustment for Columbia Gas of Virginia on May 15, 2025, allowing an increase in annual revenues of approximately $40.7 million. This includes about $12.5 million in revenues tied to the utility's infrastructure replacement program, showing how regulatory mechanisms directly fund system modernization.

Legal/Regulatory Event (2025)	TC Energy Subsidiary	Financial/Rate Impact	Status/Date
FERC Section 4 Rate Case Settlement (RP24-1103-000)	Columbia Gas Transmission	Effective 26% boost to pre-filed firm transportation rates (Targeted)	Rates effective April 1, 2025
Virginia SCC Base Rate Adjustment	Columbia Gas of Virginia	Increase in annual revenue of approx. $40.7 million	Approved May 15, 2025
Ohio SCO Rate Component Increase	Columbia Gas of Ohio	Customer adder jumped from $1.66/mcf to $3.25/mcf	Effective April 2025

Mandatory, comprehensive Indigenous consultation is a non-negotiable legal requirement for all major projects.

In Canada, the legal landscape for major infrastructure projects has definitively shifted, making authentic Indigenous partnership a non-negotiable legal and commercial requirement. The passage of the Building Canada Act (Bill C-5) in June 2025, while intended to fast-track national interest projects, explicitly maintains the Crown's duty for comprehensive Indigenous consultation.

This means that while the federal government can streamline some regulatory timelines to a maximum two-year review, the quality of your engagement with Indigenous groups is the primary determinant of project completion risk. A strong partnership structure is now a legal requirement for investment access. You must budget for this. For instance, the Cedar LNG pipeline project was transferred from TC Energy to the Nisga'a Nation in June 2024, creating an Indigenous-controlled supply chain and a model for achieving regulatory certainty.

• Indigenous consultation is the primary factor determining major project timelines.
• The Building Canada Act maintains consultation obligations even in fast-track reviews.
• Legal risks rise materially for projects without a robust Indigenous equity structure.

Regulatory changes in the US and Mexico are helping to reduce project delays and clarify rate structures.

TC Energy's strategic focus on regulated assets is paying off in Mexico, but the U.S. still presents a mixed bag of legal and regulatory hurdles. In Mexico, the strategic alliance with state utility CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad) has helped clarify rate structures and reduce certain political risks.

The $3.9 billion Southeast Gateway Project, a 444-mile offshore pipeline, is a prime example. It was completed and expected to begin service by the end of May 2025, and came in approximately $0.6 billion, or 13%, under its initial $4.5 billion cost estimate. This success demonstrates the benefit of a clear regulatory framework and strong government-backed contracts.

Still, legal and permitting delays remain a near-term risk. The southern section of the Villa de Reyes pipeline in central Mexico, for example, is delayed to the first half of 2026 due to ongoing land acquisition issues. Closer to home, the small-scale Eastern Panhandle Expansion in the U.S., placed into service in June 2025, saw its costs balloon from an initial estimate of $25 million to a final total of $45.6 million. That cost overrun, more than doubling the original budget, was partly driven by legal disputes over land rights, proving that even minor projects can face major legal-driven cost inflation.

TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Long-term goal is positioning for net-zero emissions from operations by 2050

You need to look at TC Energy Corporation (TRP) post-spin-off, which happened in October 2024 when the crude oil pipelines became South Bow Corporation. This move fundamentally reshaped the environmental risk profile. The new TC Energy is a pure-play natural gas and low-carbon infrastructure company, making its net-zero emissions goal for operations by 2050 a more credible, actionable target. The shift reduces the company's exposure to the higher environmental liability and public scrutiny that comes with operating crude oil pipelines, like the Keystone system.

The core business now focuses on a key transition fuel-natural gas-and zero-emission power like nuclear. That's a defintely necessary strategic pivot. This focus allows the company to attract a broader investor base specifically looking for lower-carbon energy transition plays, which should, in theory, lower its cost of capital over the long term.

Federal carbon pricing adds cost pressure to fossil fuel infrastructure

The Canadian federal carbon pricing system is a direct cost pressure, but it's now focused exclusively on large industrial emitters like TC Energy, since the consumer fuel charge was eliminated in April 2025. This means the policy burden is squarely on industry to decarbonize. The minimum price on industrial carbon pollution continues its planned trajectory, which is a significant financial headwind for any remaining high-emission assets.

Here's the quick math on the rising cost per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions:

Fiscal Year	Effective Date	Federal Carbon Price (CAD per tonne of CO2e)	Annual Increase
2024	April 1, 2024	$80	$15
2025	April 1, 2025	$95	$15
2026 (Projected)	April 1, 2026	$110	$15

This escalating price, set to reach $170 per tonne by 2030, creates a clear incentive to invest in operational efficiency and lower-emission technologies across the company's vast natural gas pipeline network.

Strategic shift toward natural gas and nuclear power supports lower-emissions energy

TC Energy's strategy is built on the reality that natural gas is the primary bridge fuel for the energy transition, especially for coal-to-gas conversions. The company is actively capitalizing on this trend, which is being accelerated by the massive power demands from new data centers and general electrification. They now forecast North American natural gas demand to hit 45 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2035, up from a previous 40 Bcf/d forecast. That's a 12.5% increase in their long-term market view.

Concrete examples of this strategic pivot in the 2025 fiscal year include:

• Placing approximately C$8.5 billion of capital projects into service, tracking approximately 15% below budget.
• The Southeast Gateway Pipeline (Mexico) is set to supply 1.3 Bcf/d of natural gas, supporting 10 of Mexico's 14 planned natural gas-fired power plants.
• Investing $1.1 billion in the Bruce Power Unit 5 Major Component Replacement (MCR) to extend the life of the nuclear plant until 2064, providing reliable, zero-emission baseload power.

The focus is on molecules and electrons. This dual-focus, especially the stake in nuclear, provides grid stability and a reliable, emission-less form of energy, which is a significant competitive advantage over pure fossil fuel players. The company's power and energy solutions business reported an adjusted core profit of C$301 million in the second quarter of 2025, up 32.6% from the prior year. That's real growth in the low-carbon segment.

Update on interim GHG targets reflects the liquids pipelines spin-off impact

The successful spin-off of the Liquids Pipelines business into South Bow Corporation on October 1, 2024, is the single biggest factor changing TC Energy's greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint. The new TC Energy is now a more streamlined, natural gas-focused entity, which inherently has a lower-emission profile per unit of energy delivered compared to its former self. This separation allows the remaining company to set more aggressive and focused interim GHG targets.

What this spin-off hides, to be fair, is that the environmental risk of the liquids business (including the Keystone system and its history of spills) didn't disappear; it just moved to South Bow Corporation. Still, for TC Energy, the new, focused structure is expected to enable the company to play a key role in enabling energy transition and reducing global emissions. This means you should expect an update on their interim GHG targets in the near-term that reflects a substantial, structural reduction in their overall emissions baseline, driven by the removal of the crude oil transportation segment.

Next step: Finance and ESG teams need to model the new carbon tax liability based on the $95/tonne rate and the post-spin-off emissions profile by the end of the year.