Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Honestly, looking at Aemetis, Inc.'s portfolio right now feels like watching a high-stakes gamble: it's a classic growth-by-project story where massive capital risk shadows huge potential. Your Star, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, saw revenues jump 139% in 2024, while the Cash Cows, like the India Biodiesel business bringing in $94.2 million in 2024, are funding the fight. Still, the Dogs quadrant shows the drag-a net loss of $87.5 million for 2024-which makes financing the un-banked Question Marks, like the Riverbank Sustainable Aviation Fuel/Renewable Diesel project, incredibly tough when the company was left with just $1.6 million in cash by Q2 2025; you need to see where the chips are falling below.

Background of Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX)

Aemetis, Inc. is a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company, headquartered in Cupertino, California, that concentrates on developing low and negative carbon intensity products to help lower emissions and fuel costs. The company manages operations across three primary segments: California Ethanol, India Biodiesel, and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).

For the full year 2024, Aemetis reported total revenue of approximately $268 million, which represented a 43.34% year-over-year growth. However, this top-line expansion was accompanied by widening losses, with the net loss reaching -$87.5 million for 2024.

Looking at the most recent quarterly figures available for late 2025, Aemetis reported revenue of $59.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, which was up about $7 million from the second quarter of 2025. Despite this sequential increase, the Q3 2025 revenue missed analyst expectations of $87.44 million, and the company posted a net loss of $23.7 million for that quarter. The cash position improved sequentially, standing at $5.6 million at the end of Q3 2025.

The California Ethanol segment operates a production facility in Keyes, California. In 2024, this division saw revenues climb 55% Y/Y to $162 million, driven by an 89.0% increase in volumes sold to 60.6 million gallons. The company is investing in a $30 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system at this plant, which is projected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and add $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026.

Aemetis's India Biodiesel segment produces biodiesel and refined glycerin at its Kakinada plant. In 2024, biodiesel revenues grew 20% to $94.2M, with production capacity increasing to 80 million gallons per year. This segment's performance is heavily tied to government contracts, such as a $31 million shipment contract recognized in Q3 2025. Aemetis is planning an Initial Public Offering for its India subsidiary in late 2025 or early 2026.

The Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) business is positioned as a high-growth area, utilizing a network of biogas digesters in California's Central Valley. In Q3 2025, the RNG unit generated $4 million in revenue from 12 operating digesters. The company's RNG production capacity was expected to reach 550,000 MMBtus by the end of 2025, with plans to expand this to 1.0 million MMBtus by the end of 2026. Aemetis is actively monetizing this segment through the sale of RNG molecules, D3 RIN credits, and Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) production tax credits.

Overall, Aemetis has an ambitious long-term goal to grow annual revenue from approximately $300 million to $2 billion by 2028, relying significantly on policy tailwinds like the Inflation Reduction Act and LCFS credits to support its expansion and decarbonization efforts.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) - BCG Matrix: Stars

The Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) business unit for Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) clearly occupies the Star quadrant. This segment is the primary growth engine, with revenues projected to have jumped 139% in 2024, signaling rapid market penetration in a high-growth sector.

This unit is characterized by aggressive scaling of its production footprint. Aemetis is targeting an RNG production capacity of 550,000 MMBtus by the end of 2025. Furthermore, the company has a stated goal to scale this further to an annual run rate of 1 million MMBtu by the end of 2026. This rapid expansion is supported by securing $50 million in closed USDA guaranteed financing, with an additional $75 million in loans currently in process.

The high-margin potential is being unlocked through regulatory success in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved LCFS pathways for seven of the company's digesters, achieving an impressive blended average carbon intensity (CI) score of -384 gCO2e/MJ. This approval is critical because it increases the LCFS credit revenue for these specific dairies by 160% compared to the -150 default pathway score while pathways are pending. As of the third quarter of 2025, Aemetis was operating or building digesters to process waste from 18 dairies.

This segment is defintely gaining market share in the high-growth, low-carbon intensity fuel space, evidenced by operational metrics from the second quarter of 2025. The segment generated $3.1 million in revenue from 11 operating digesters, producing 106,400 MMBtu of RNG during that quarter. The strategic focus remains on maintaining this growth trajectory until the high-growth market matures, at which point these Stars are expected to transition into Cash Cows.

Here is a snapshot of the key operational and capacity metrics supporting the Star classification:

The company is also monetizing federal incentives, having sold $83 million in investment credits related to RNG facilities to date, generating approximately $70 million in cash from these sales.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at the established, high-market-share businesses within Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) that are expected to generate the bulk of the necessary cash flow to fund growth elsewhere in the portfolio. These are the mature assets that, despite low growth prospects in their current form, provide the financial stability for the enterprise. Honestly, these are the units you want to see consistently throwing off cash, even if the top-line growth has plateaued.

The California Ethanol operation, centered at the Keyes Plant, remains a core revenue anchor. For the third quarter of 2025, this segment reported revenue of $59.2 million. This facility has a nameplate capacity of 65 million gallon per year. To secure its long-term cash generation profile in a mature market, Aemetis, Inc. is investing heavily in efficiency. The Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) upgrade is a key move here; it's designed to cut natural gas use by approximately 80%. This is not a small tweak; the company projects this upgrade will add an estimated $32 million in incremental annual cash flow starting in 2026.

The India Biodiesel business is the other major established asset. This subsidiary is a significant, mature revenue stream, reporting $14.5 million in revenue for the third quarter of 2025. Its production capacity is confirmed at 80 million gallons per year. To monetize this market leadership position, Aemetis, Inc. is actively preparing the subsidiary for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) targeted for early 2026. They even appointed a new Chief Financial Officer in July 2025 to spearhead this effort.

These Cash Cows are being supported, not aggressively expanded, except where efficiency gains directly translate to higher margins or regulatory credit capture. Here's a quick look at the operational scale of these two cash generators as of the latest reporting period:

The strategy for these units is clear: maintain market share while minimizing new capital expenditure, save for high-return efficiency projects like the MVR system. The expected benefits from the MVR project are substantial:

• Natural gas consumption reduction by 80%.
• Estimated incremental annual cash flow of $32 million starting in 2026.
• Increased Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits.
• Capture of transferrable Section 45Z production tax credits.

The India subsidiary's IPO prep is the primary monetization event for that segment, designed to bring capital back to the parent company, with approximately 25% of proceeds potentially going to Aemetis, Inc. for debt repayment or cash strengthening. If onboarding takes longer than expected for the MVR system, which is scheduled for completion in Q2 2026, margin pressure could definitely return to the California operation.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

You're looking at the segments of Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) that are tying up capital without generating much return. The company's overall financial health is a drag, with a net loss of $87.5 million for the full year 2024. That's a significant hole to climb out of, honestly.

Cash flow from operating segments is being eaten up by fixed costs, like the high interest expense, which hit $12.3 million in Q2 2025. To be fair, legacy operations, before efficiency upgrades, contribute to a high cost of goods sold, nearly matching the $268 million in 2024 revenue. This suggests very thin, if any, gross profit from those older lines of business. Here's a quick look at how these drag metrics stack up:

The India Biodiesel segment exemplifies the low-growth, low-share profile of a Dog due to market instability. It faces volatility from shifting government contract timing, causing Q1 2025 revenue to drop to $42.9 million. When revenue streams are this unpredictable, managing working capital becomes a nightmare. These units are prime candidates for divestiture because they just sit there, consuming management focus.

Consider the operational context for this segment:

• Low market share in a segment facing regulatory shifts.
• Revenue highly dependent on contract timing, not steady demand.
• Q1 2025 revenue registered at $42.9 million.
• High fixed costs make breakeven difficult during revenue dips.

Expensive turn-around plans usually don't help these situations; the capital is better deployed elsewhere. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

You're looking at Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) projects that are burning cash now but hold the key to massive future growth, which is the classic profile for a Question Mark in the BCG Matrix. These are the big bets-high market potential, but right now, they have a low market share because they aren't operational yet. They need serious capital infusion to move forward, and that's where the current financial tightness becomes a real concern.

The Riverbank Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Renewable Diesel (RD) project is the prime example. This facility is designed with a 90 million gallons per year (MMgy) capacity, which represents a huge potential market share in the growing low-carbon fuel sector. While the company has secured significant supply agreements, the project itself is not yet financed. This lack of financing, combined with the high capital expenditure required, means this unit is currently a major cash consumer with no corresponding revenue stream.

The Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) initiative is another high-growth area. This opportunity is projecting capacity over 2 million tonnes of CO2 sequestration annually when considering the combined potential across Aemetis, Inc.'s sites. Specifically for the Riverbank site, initial work suggests the capacity could be up to 1.4 million metric tons of CO2 annually once permitted. Still, both the SAF/RD and the CCS projects are effectively stalled. They are waiting on two critical external factors: clarity on the federal 45Z tax credit and the finalization of Class VI EPA permits.

Here's the quick math on the immediate risk: Aemetis, Inc. had only $1.6 million in cash at the end of Q2 2025. Honestly, that small cash balance makes the financing of these capital-intensive projects a major risk, as they require substantial investment to reach operational status and start generating returns. These units need to secure financing and gain market share quickly, or they risk becoming Dogs.

The strategic path for these Question Marks is clear, though difficult:

• Invest heavily to secure financing and gain market share quickly.
• Sell the projects if the path to commercialization becomes too uncertain.

To give you a clearer picture of the scale of these potential assets versus the current financial footing, look at this comparison:

The dependency on external regulatory clarity is a significant factor you need to track. The progress on these items directly impacts the company's ability to move these projects from the drawing board to revenue generation.

• Federal 45Z tax credit clarity is needed to support project financing.
• Final Class VI EPA permits are required for the CCS component.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday, focusing on near-term operational cash burn against the $1.6 million balance.