Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're analyzing Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH), and the picture is a high-stakes balancing act. Right now, the money is strong: global steel demand is pushing metallurgical coal prices to an estimated average of $250 per metric ton through late 2025, which translates directly to fat margins for ARCH. But honestly, that near-term cash flow is just fuel for a massive, unavoidable transition. The company has to defintely navigate aggressive environmental regulation and execute its thermal coal phase-out by 2026, plus manage significant compliance and growth spending, estimated near $200 million for 2025. We're going to map out exactly how Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental forces are pulling ARCH in two directions-profit today versus viability tomorrow-so you can make an informed decision.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

You're looking at Arch Resources, Inc.'s position in 2025, and the political winds have shifted dramatically in its favor, especially at the federal level. The key takeaway is that the new administration is actively dismantling Obama- and Biden-era environmental restrictions, which immediately lowers the compliance risk for coal consumers and supports demand. Still, international trade policy is a mixed bag, with tariffs creating a new export map.

US trade policy remains favorable for coal exports, bolstering international sales.

The current federal administration has made boosting coal exports a national priority in 2025, which is a clear tailwind for Arch Resources, Inc. The Commerce Department and the U.S. Trade Representative have been directed to identify new export opportunities and facilitate international purchasing agreements for U.S. coal. This is defintely a boon for Arch's high-quality metallurgical coal, which is its core focus.

However, the global trade landscape is not without friction. China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. coal imports, effective in February 2025. Here's the quick math: that tariff forced the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to revise its 2025 U.S. coal export forecast downward to 93 million short tons (MMst), a drop from the previous 97 MMst projection. The good news is that the metallurgical coal segment, Arch's specialty, is projected to hold strong at 44 MMst in 2025, and shipments are expected to be redirected, primarily increasing exports to India.

U.S. Coal Export Forecast (2025)	Amount (Million Short Tons)	Impact on Arch Resources, Inc.
Total Coal Exports (EIA Revised)	93 MMst	Overall market size reduction due to tariffs.
Metallurgical Coal Exports (Projected)	44 MMst	Stable demand for Arch's core, high-value product.
China Tariff on U.S. Coal	15%	Forces export redirection to markets like India, increasing logistical complexity.

Continued regulatory scrutiny from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on water and air quality permits.

The narrative of 'continued scrutiny' has been flipped on its head in 2025. The EPA, under the new administration, is actively working to reduce regulatory burdens on the coal industry. This is a massive shift that reduces the risk of premature coal-fired power plant retirements, thus stabilizing the domestic thermal coal market for Arch Resources, Inc.'s Powder River Basin operations.

The EPA is currently reviewing and revising several major rules:

• Reconsidering the Clean Power Plan 2.0.
• Revising the costly wastewater regulations (Effluent Limitation Guidelines) issued in 2024.
• Granting a two-year relief from the stringent Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to certain coal-fired power plants to prevent forced closures.

What this means is that the compliance deadlines for the 2024 water pollution rule are being pushed back. This regulatory relief is intended to safeguard the U.S. electrical grid, where coal still accounts for 16% of electricity generation, and allows existing coal plants to remain operational longer, supporting Arch's thermal coal sales.

State-level politics in key mining states (e.g., West Virginia) provide support for the industry.

In key operating regions like West Virginia, where Arch Resources, Inc. has significant metallurgical coal assets, the state government is firmly aligned with the industry. Governor Patrick Morrisey has publicly backed the federal pro-coal initiatives and outlined a state energy plan to dramatically increase power generation from traditional sources.

The state's plan aims to increase total power generation from coal, natural gas, and nuclear to 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, up from the current 15 GW. This long-term commitment signals a stable operating environment. Plus, the federal government announced a $625 million investment to reinvigorate the coal industry, with $350 million earmarked for modernizing existing coal plants, which directly supports the customer base for Appalachian coal producers. This political support helps to offset the structural decline in domestic thermal coal demand.

Potential for increased Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) enforcement, raising operational costs.

While MSHA's core mission remains miner safety, the political transition in 2025 suggests a shift in enforcement philosophy. MSHA's focus remains on high-risk areas like fatality prevention and chronic hazards, such as powered haulage. The agency's FY2025 budget justification requested 13 new enforcement Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) to bolster its ranks.

However, the new administration is expected to favor compliance assistance over aggressive enforcement tactics like the previous administration's 'impact inspections'. More concretely, MSHA proposed rules in July 2025 to limit the discretionary authority of local District Managers in approving mine safety plans (like roof control and ventilation). This move is intended to:

• Standardize enforcement across all mines.
• Reduce operational uncertainty for mine operators.
• Potentially lower compliance costs by eliminating ad-hoc requirements not explicitly in federal regulation.

The shift is toward clearer, more predictable safety rules, which is a positive for managing Arch Resources, Inc.'s operational expenses.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

The economic outlook for the business formerly known as Arch Resources, Inc. (now a core part of Core Natural Resources following the January 2025 merger with CONSOL Energy) is a study in market divergence: strong, infrastructure-driven demand for metallurgical coal is battling persistent cost inflation and the structural decline of the thermal coal business.

Your investment decision hinges on the metallurgical segment's ability to capture premium pricing above its rising cost structure, plus the new entity's success in realizing $150 million to $170 million in projected annual synergies. That's where the real value is being created.

Global Steel Production Forecasts for 2025 Drive Strong Demand

Demand for the company's metallurgical (coking) coal remains structurally sound, tied directly to global steel production, which is essential for infrastructure and manufacturing. While global crude steel production for 2025 is forecast at 1.846 billion tonnes, down slightly from earlier estimates, the demand for high-quality coking coal remains resilient because there is no immediate, scalable substitute in primary steelmaking (the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace route).

The metallurgical coal market size is forecast to increase by a substantial $99.6 billion between 2024 and 2029, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8%. This growth is largely fueled by strong demand in Asia Pacific, particularly India, where steel demand is projected to charge ahead with around 9% growth in both 2025 and 2026.

Metallurgical Coal Prices and Margin Reality

While the long-term outlook is positive, near-term pricing is far from the peak $400+ levels seen in recent years. Metallurgical coal prices are expected to stabilize around $210 per metric ton for the 2025-2027 period. This average is critical, as the company's high-quality product commands a premium, supporting a robust margin over production costs. However, the new entity, Core Natural Resources, has only 2.9 million tons of its metallurgical segment volume committed and priced for 2025 at an average of $122.38 per ton out of a projected 7.5-8.0 million tons total volume.

This leaves a significant portion of its metallurgical volume exposed to market fluctuations, which is both a risk and an opportunity. If prices trend higher than the $210/mt consensus, the uncommitted tonnage will drive substantial cash flow.

Inflationary Pressure on Operating Expenses

The biggest near-term headwind is cost inflation across the mining supply chain, specifically for diesel fuel, steel components, and labor. This pressure is elevating the company's cash cost of coal sold per ton, squeezing margins. For the first quarter of 2025, the Metallurgical segment's cash cost of coal sold per ton was $91.00. This figure is close to the projected normalized cash cost of approximately $90 per ton for the full year.

The company also incurred substantial extraordinary costs in 2025, such as $49.2 million in merger-related expenses in Q1 2025, and $21.2 million in costs associated with the Leer South fire extinguishment and idle mine costs in Q2 2025. These extraordinary costs are defintely a drag on 2025 profitability.

Segment	2025 Projected Volume (Million Tons)	Q1 2025 Cash Cost of Coal Sold per Ton	2025 Committed Price per Ton (Select Contracts)
Metallurgical	7.5 - 8.0	$91.00	$122.38 (2.9 million tons)
Powder River Basin (PRB) Thermal	29.0 - 31.0 (High C.V. Thermal)	$12.44	$60 - $62 (30.0 million tons)

The Declining Thermal Coal Market Continues to Shrink

The company's thermal coal operations, primarily in the Powder River Basin (PRB), continue to face structural decline in the U.S. power generation market. Average thermal coal prices are projected to decline approximately 27% year-over-year in 2025 to around $100 per metric ton globally, reflecting persistent oversupply.

The former Arch Resources PRB segment, now part of Core Natural Resources, is a low-cost producer, but its realized price and margin reflect the market's weakness. The Q2 2025 realized coal revenue per ton sold for the PRB segment was only $14.69, with a cash cost of $13.40/ton, resulting in a thin cash margin of $1.29 per ton. This segment will continue to shrink as its contribution to the overall revenue mix is minimized, yet it still provides significant cash flow due to its immense scale.

• Thermal coal price forecast: decline of 27% in 2025.
• PRB segment Q2 2025 cash margin: $1.29 per ton.
• U.S. power sector consumption: expected to edge up slightly to 337.9 million metric tonnes in 2025.

The plan is clear: maximize the high-margin metallurgical business and manage the thermal business for cash flow until exit. Finance: Monitor the realized metallurgical coal price against the $210/mt forecast weekly.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

The social factors for Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH), now operating as part of Core Natural Resources following the January 2025 merger with Consol Energy, are dominated by the tension between global decarbonization mandates and the local economic reliance on high-wage mining jobs. This dynamic forces the company to balance investor demands for a clean energy transition with the practical, on-the-ground reality of labor and community stability in Appalachia.

Growing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) pressure from institutional investors like BlackRock demanding clear decarbonization plans.

Institutional investor pressure is a clear, near-term headwind, particularly from asset managers like BlackRock, who have allocated $150 billion for funds screened for energy transition risks and opportunities as of July 2024. This pressure is not abstract; it's a direct financial risk, evidenced by a 2024/2025 lawsuit alleging that major asset managers, including BlackRock, used their holdings in companies like Arch Resources to pressure them into reducing coal output for ESG goals. The company's response has been a strategic pivot to metallurgical coal, a critical component for steelmaking, which is essential for infrastructure and the energy transition itself. Arch Resources has already delivered a 56% reduction in direct and indirect CO2e emissions against its 2013 baseline, a key metric to appease climate-focused shareholders. This pivot is the defintely the right move.

The core ESG challenge is summarized below:

• Investor Capital: Funds with climate-focused mandates now control significant capital, demanding clear Scope 3 (end-user) emissions plans.
• Mitigation Strategy: Arch's primary defense is its focus on metallurgical coal, which is not easily substituted in the production of new steel.
• Shareholder Return: The company has deployed over $2.2 billion under its capital return program since 2017, using strong returns to maintain shareholder loyalty amid ESG scrutiny.

Labor shortages in skilled mining positions persist, straining production targets.

The U.S. labor market remains tight, with the national labor shortage rate sitting at 70% as of 2025, making skilled labor acquisition a persistent problem for the entire mining industry. This shortage is compounded in the mining sector, which saw employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction decline by 6,000 in August 2025 alone. For Arch's former Appalachian operations, retaining and recruiting highly-skilled workers for its modern longwall mines (like Leer and Leer South) is crucial for meeting 2025 production targets, especially as the company repositions for enhanced operating execution. The demographic reality is that the industry is losing experienced workers faster than it can replace them, creating a significant knowledge gap.

Here's the quick math on the labor situation:

Metric (Source)	Value (2025/Latest Available)	Implication for ARCH Operations
U.S. Labor Shortage Rate (ManpowerGroup)	70%	Massive difficulty in recruiting skilled, non-mining-specific labor (e.g., electricians, mechanics).
Mining Employment Change (BLS, Aug 2025)	-6,000 jobs	The overall pool of experienced mining labor is shrinking, increasing wage pressure.
Appalachia Labor Force Participation (ARC)	73.3% (vs. 77.9% nationally)	Indicates a smaller, less active local workforce pool for recruitment in core operating regions.

Strong community reliance on mining jobs in Appalachia ties ARCH's reputation to local economic stability.

The company's operations, particularly in Central and Northern Appalachia (West Virginia, etc.), are deeply intertwined with the local economy. The region was disproportionately affected by the long-term decline in coal, losing 30,003 coal mining jobs between 2011 and 2019, with Appalachian counties in Kentucky and West Virginia bearing the brunt. This history means every job at a Core Natural Resources mine is viewed as an anchor for the community, tying the company's social license to operate directly to its employment stability and safety record.

The company's ability to operate safely is a key social metric here. Arch's subsidiary operations achieved an aggregate total lost-time incident rate of 0.62 incidents per 200,000 employee-hours worked in Q1 2024, a performance that was more than three times better than the industry average. This exceptional safety record is a tangible social contribution that directly impacts the well-being of its 3,400 employees (2023 figure for the former Arch Resources) and their families.

Public perception of coal remains poor, complicating recruitment and public relations efforts.

While the company is focused on the metallurgical coal market, the public still largely views the industry through the lens of thermal coal and climate change. Over 60 countries have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, and the global trend is toward phasing out unabated coal-burning power plants. This negative perception complicates recruitment, especially for younger, tech-savvy workers who may be reluctant to join an industry widely perceived as being in terminal decline. The public discourse around the 'decline of the US coal industry' and its impact on dependent communities further exacerbates the challenge of attracting new talent. The company must continuously use its strong safety record and its role in the steel supply chain-a necessary input for renewable energy infrastructure-to counter this pervasive negative narrative.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Increased capital expenditure on automation and remote-control mining equipment to enhance safety and productivity.

The technological imperative for Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the combined entity of Arch Resources and CONSOL Energy, which finalized its merger in January 2025) is to drive operational efficiency and safety through automation. While specific 2025 CapEx for pure automation is not broken out, the financial incentive is clear: the merger is projected to generate $110 million to $140 million in annual cost and operational synergies within 6 to 18 months of closing.

A significant portion of this synergy must come from technology-driven productivity gains, especially in longwall operations. We're seeing the industry move to remote-control shearers and automated roof support systems. This isn't just about cutting costs; it's about increasing the average daily production tons from high-volume mines while keeping people out of harm's way. That's a defintely better risk-reward profile.

Here's the quick math on the synergy goal:

Metric	Value (2025 Outlook)	Technological Driver
Annual Synergy Target (Post-Merger)	$110 million to $140 million	Automation, process optimization, and shared digital infrastructure.
Compliance Deadline for MSHA Controls	August 18, 2025	Mandatory investment in new dust suppression and ventilation tech.
Global CCS Operational Capacity (Early 2025)	~50 million tonnes of CO2 annually	Highlights the severe lack of viable end-use technology for coking coal's emissions.

Use of advanced geological modeling and data analytics to optimize mine planning and extraction efficiency.

The need for advanced geological modeling (AGM) and data analytics is no longer theoretical for the new company; it's a direct response to a recent operational failure. Core Natural Resources is facing higher-than-normal cash cost of coal sold per ton in its metallurgical segment in 2025, specifically due to a longwall outage at Leer South that was driven by geological challenges.

This is where predictive analytics steps in. You need to integrate real-time sensor data from continuous miners and longwalls with high-resolution 3D geological models to create a 'digital twin' of the mine. This allows engineers to:

• Predict fault lines and unstable formations before the equipment hits them.
• Optimize the cutting path to maximize resource extraction.
• Reduce the risk of costly, multi-week production outages.

The goal is to turn historical drilling data and seismic surveys into a live, actionable risk map, minimizing the chances of another Leer South-style disruption that hits the bottom line so hard.

Need for defintely better dust suppression and ventilation technology to meet stricter MSHA standards.

Regulatory technology is a non-negotiable CapEx driver in 2025. The Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) has implemented a final rule on respirable crystalline silica (silica dust), which is forcing all coal mine operators to upgrade their engineering controls.

The new standards are significantly tighter, requiring immediate compliance with a new Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) of 50 µg/m³ over an eight-hour shift, down from previous limits. Furthermore, the deadline for implementing the necessary engineering controls, like improved ventilation and advanced water spray systems, is August 18, 2025. This means Core Natural Resources must allocate substantial capital this fiscal year for:

• High-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtration systems for enclosed cabs.
• Automated, smart water spray systems that adjust flow based on real-time dust monitoring.
• Upgraded main and auxiliary ventilation infrastructure to handle the lower PEL.

Failure to meet the 25 µg/m³ Action Level (AL) triggers mandatory corrective actions, so the investment has to be right the first time.

Limited viable commercial technology for carbon capture and storage (CCS) relevant to coking coal's end-use.

The biggest long-term technological risk for Core Natural Resources is the lack of a scalable, commercially viable solution for the emissions from its primary product: metallurgical (coking) coal. This coal is used to make steel, a process that is classified as a 'hard to abate' sector.

Globally, the operational capacity for carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains low, reaching only about 50 million tonnes of CO2 annually by early 2025. This is a staggering shortfall when compared to the 1,300 million tonnes of annual capture capacity needed to meet net-zero pathways. The technology is simply not mature or economical enough to retrofit the world's blast furnaces, which are the main customers for Core Natural Resources' high-quality coking coal.

This technological gap means the company's future relies heavily on two non-CCS factors:

• The slow, capital-intensive transition of the steel industry to alternative technologies like hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI).
• The continued demand for high-quality met coal in emerging markets where environmental regulations are less stringent.

The current technology landscape forces a focus on mine-site efficiency (e.g., automation) rather than end-use decarbonization.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Complex and lengthy permitting processes for new projects, such as expanding the Leer South Mine.

The legal and regulatory environment for expanding or even maintaining coal operations is a significant headwind, often translating directly into higher capital expenditure and operational risk. You're not just mining coal; you're navigating a labyrinth of federal and state approvals. The recent operational disruption at the Leer South Mine provides a concrete example of this risk in 2025, even under the new Core Natural Resources structure (formed by the merger of Arch Resources and CONSOL Energy).

Following an underground fire in January 2025, the mine was temporarily sealed. The regulatory consultation and subsequent shutdown, while focused on safety, resulted in a significant financial hit. Core Natural Resources reported a total expenditure of about $30 million related to the fire and subsequent sealing efforts. This cost includes the operational suspension and the expense of working with state and federal regulators to manage the restart plan, which was aimed at resuming longwall production by mid-year 2025. This shows that regulatory compliance and permitting-even for a restart-can trigger massive, unplanned capital outlays and production delays. One operational hiccup can cost tens of millions, defintely impacting your quarterly cash flow.

Strict enforcement of MSHA safety regulations results in higher compliance costs and potential operational shutdowns.

Compliance with the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) regulations is a non-negotiable, and the cost of compliance is rising sharply in 2025. The regulatory focus is intensifying, particularly around health hazards.

The new MSHA respirable crystalline silica standard, which became mandatory for coal mine operators on a revised compliance date of August 18, 2025, is a major cost driver. This rule halves the permissible exposure limit (PEL) for silica dust from 100 to 50 micrograms per cubic meter of air (µg/m³). Meeting this tighter standard requires substantial investment in new ventilation systems, dust suppression technology, and advanced monitoring equipment. Also, the financial sting of violations is getting sharper: MSHA/OSHA civil penalty amounts increased by approximately 2.6% in January 2025 due to annual adjustments. This is not a theoretical risk; the average mining operator is already spending over $20,000 per year on citations and penalties alone.

Furthermore, an important legal shift occurred in September 2025 when the Federal Mine Safety and Health Review Commission redefined the 'significant and substantial' (S&S) violation standard. This change makes it easier for MSHA inspectors to uphold S&S allegations, significantly increasing the likelihood of higher fines and more stringent enforcement actions that can force temporary operational stoppages.

Ongoing legal risks related to legacy environmental liabilities from past thermal mining operations.

While Arch Resources has strategically pivoted to focus on metallurgical coal, the company still carries substantial legal baggage from its past thermal coal operations. These are primarily in the form of asset retirement obligations (AROs) under the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), which mandate the restoration of mined land. This is a long-term, non-discretionary liability that sits on the balance sheet.

The sheer scale of this obligation is reflected in the company's financial disclosures. As of September 30, 2024, Arch Resources' 'Other Liabilities,' a category that includes these long-term environmental and reclamation obligations, amounted to approximately $534.1 million. This figure represents the estimated future cost of legally required reclamation work. This liability is a constant drain on capital and a source of legal risk, as regulatory changes or new interpretations of existing laws can increase the estimated cost at any time. You have to keep a half-billion dollars parked for holes you dug years ago.

New federal rules under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) may indirectly affect energy costs for mining operations.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), while not directly regulating metallurgical coal mining, creates a legal and financial framework that indirectly pressures operational costs, specifically energy. The IRA's core mechanism is to heavily subsidize clean energy through tax credits, which fundamentally changes the economics of the power grid that Arch Resources relies on for its operations.

Starting in 2025, the legacy Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean energy transitioned into the new technology-neutral credits: Section 45Y (Production) and Section 48E (Investment). These new credits are only available to power plants that produce near-zero emissions, effectively excluding traditional, non-Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) thermal coal power generation. This means:

• Thermal Power Plant Closures: Plants that cannot or will not adopt CCUS technology lose access to major credits from 2025 onward, accelerating their planned closures.
• Rising Electricity Costs: The overall grid mix becomes more dependent on subsidized, but often higher-cost, clean energy sources, or on non-subsidized fossil fuel plants that must compete without federal support.
• Indirect Mining Cost: As a major industrial consumer, Arch Resources' non-mining operating costs, especially electricity, are subject to the upward price pressure created by this regulatory-driven shift in the power generation market.

The IRA's structure is a legal mandate for a cleaner grid, and that mandate increases the price of power for heavy industry.

Legal/Regulatory Factor	2025 Financial/Operational Impact	Risk/Opportunity
Leer South Mine Regulatory Disruption	Operational expenditure of approximately $30 million (Core Natural Resources) for fire-related sealing and restart planning.	Risk: High-impact, unplanned operational shutdowns and capital costs due to regulatory consultation.
MSHA Respirable Silica Standard	Compliance required by August 18, 2025, for coal mines; mandates investment for new controls to meet 50 µg/m³ PEL.	Risk: Increased compliance CapEx and OpEx, plus higher MSHA penalty exposure (penalties increased by 2.6% in Jan 2025).
Legacy Environmental Liabilities (AROs)	'Other Liabilities' totaled $534.1 million as of September 30, 2024, representing future reclamation costs.	Risk: Substantial, non-discretionary long-term financial obligation that can grow with regulatory changes.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) - Indirect Effect	Accelerated retirement of non-CCUS thermal power plants due to new 45Y/48E credit structure starting in 2025.	Risk: Indirectly increases the cost of electricity, a key input for mining operations, due to a shifting power generation mix.

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental landscape for the former Arch Resources, Inc., now operating as Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) following the January 2025 merger with CONSOL Energy Inc., is defined by a dual mandate: accelerate the thermal coal exit while aggressively managing the legacy reclamation costs and capitalizing on new green opportunities.

ARCH's commitment to phase out thermal coal production by 2026 creates a clear, near-term operational shift.

The strategic pivot away from Powder River Basin (PRB) thermal coal-a commitment made by the former Arch Resources, Inc.-is now a core element of Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s environmental strategy. This is not a full thermal exit, but a shift toward high-calorific value (high-CV) thermal coal for export and industrial use, which is less exposed to the declining U.S. power market.

The company is managing a deliberate decline in its PRB thermal footprint, even as it guides for a substantial 2025 production volume. For the full year 2025, Core Natural Resources, Inc. is guiding for a Powder River Basin segment sales volume in the range of 47 million to 49 million tons. This volume, while lower than historical highs, still provides significant cash flow to fund the metallurgical segment growth and, crucially, the environmental closure costs.

Significant financial obligations for land reclamation and water treatment at closed and active mine sites.

A major financial factor is the cost of Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO), which covers land reclamation and water treatment, particularly at the legacy thermal mines. The former Arch Resources, Inc. has proactively addressed this by fully funding its Powder River Basin reclamation fund for decommissioning, a key liability reduction move.

As of December 31, 2023, the Arch Resources, Inc. ARO fund balance stood at approximately $142.3 million. In 2023 alone, the company performed approximately $15.9 million of reclamation work at its thermal operations. This is a substantial, non-discretionary cost that must be managed, but the pre-funding provides a critical financial buffer.

• Manage ARO: The pre-funded $142.3 million reclamation fund reduces future cash strain.
• Ongoing Cost: Reclamation work totaled $15.9 million in 2023 at thermal sites.
• Future Liability: Water treatment obligations will persist long after mining ceases.

Scrutiny over greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation and end-use (steelmaking) of its coking coal.

While the company's core focus is on metallurgical (coking) coal-an essential input for the production of new steel-the entire value chain faces intense scrutiny. The steel industry accounts for a significant portion of global carbon emissions, tying Core Natural Resources, Inc. directly to the 'hard-to-abate' sector challenge.

The company's own operations have shown improvement, with a reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 CO2e absolute emissions by 40 percent since 2011. Still, the primary environmental risk lies in Scope 3 emissions (end-use). The strategic opportunity here is the verified discovery of elevated concentrations of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) and critical minerals at the Black Thunder and Coal Creek sites, which could transform the environmental liability (mine waste) into a strategic asset for the clean energy transition.

Capital expenditures for environmental compliance and growth projects are estimated near $200 million for 2025.

The total capital expenditure (CapEx) for Core Natural Resources, Inc. in 2025 is higher than the legacy Arch figure, reflecting the combined entity's scale and investment needs. The company's full-year 2025 CapEx guidance was lowered to a range of $260 million to $290 million. A significant portion of this capital is directed toward the metallurgical segment for growth and maintenance, which includes environmental best practices and compliance measures.

Here's the quick math: If coking coal stays above $220/ton, Core Natural Resources, Inc. generates significant free cash flow, but every dollar spent on environmental remediation cuts directly into that. Finance: track the average coking coal price daily.

The allocation of this CapEx is heavily weighted toward the future-facing metallurgical segment, which aligns with the environmental strategy of reducing the overall carbon intensity of the portfolio.

Metric (2025 Fiscal Year)	Segment/Asset	Value/Range	Implication
Total Capital Expenditures (Guidance)	Consolidated (Core Natural Resources, Inc.)	$260 million - $290 million	Funding growth and environmental compliance.
Reclamation Fund Balance (Arch Legacy ARO)	Powder River Basin (PRB)	$142.3 million (as of Dec 31, 2023)	Liability pre-funded, reducing future cash drain.
PRB Thermal Coal Sales Volume (Guidance)	Powder River Basin	47 million - 49 million tons	Provides cash flow to sustain the met coal pivot.
Coking Coal Realized Revenue (Q3 2025)	Metallurgical Segment	$112.94 per ton	Actual price realized is below the market index, emphasizing contract stability over spot volatility.
Scope 1 & 2 Emissions Reduction	Arch Legacy Operations	40 percent (since 2011)	Demonstrates operational commitment to internal GHG control.