Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) through the classic BCG lens as of late 2025, and honestly, it's a biotech story where the framework needs a slight tweak since they lack a true product-sales Cash Cow. It's a classic biotech pivot point. The core question is whether Vepdegestrant (ARV-471), with its June 5, 2026 PDUFA date, can immediately convert into a dominant Star, especially given the 50/50 profit split with Pfizer, while the pipeline is packed with high-potential Question Marks like ARV-766. We've got one asset, ARV-110, clearly marked as a Dog due to de-prioritization, but the real excitement-and risk-lies in turning that $787.6 million cash cushion into future market leaders. Let's break down where Arvinas stands today.

Background of Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)

You're looking at Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN), a clinical-stage biotechnology firm headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut. Honestly, the core of what Arvinas does is pioneering a new drug class: PROTAC degraders (PROteolysis TArgeting Chimera). This technology is designed to work by tapping into the body's own natural system for getting rid of proteins, aiming to selectively and efficiently destroy disease-causing proteins. It's a distinct approach in drug development, moving beyond just blocking a protein's action.

As of late 2025, the company has seen significant clinical and regulatory movement, particularly with its lead candidate, vepdegestrant. This oral PROTAC ER degrader, aimed at treating certain advanced breast cancers, had the first-ever positive readout in a Phase 3 trial for a PROTAC, leading to a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA. The FDA accepted this NDA, setting a PDUFA date for June 5, 2026. Furthermore, Arvinas and Pfizer are working together to select a third party for the commercialization of vepdegestrant.

The pipeline shows several other active programs, which is typical for a company built on a platform technology. You've got ARV-102, an oral PROTAC LRRK2 degrader for Parkinson's disease, which showed promising Phase 1 data, including evidence of brain penetration. Then there's ARV-806, a KRAS G12D degrader that started a Phase 1 trial in 2025, and ARV-393, a BCL6 degrader for certain lymphomas, though this one has faced some early clinical hurdles regarding exposure levels. They also presented preclinical data on ARV-027 for spinal bulbar muscular atrophy (SBMA).

Financially speaking, Arvinas, Inc. has been in a strategic cost-management phase. Following workforce reductions of about one-third completed in the second quarter of 2025, the company has been focused on extending its cash runway. As of September 30, 2025, the balance sheet held approximately $787.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. Management has stated this capital is sufficient to fund planned operations well into the second half of 2028. Still, revenue performance has been uneven; for instance, Q3 2025 revenue dropped significantly year-over-year, partly because a license agreement with Novartis expired.

Regarding leadership, John Houston, Ph.D., who has guided Arvinas through many of these initial milestones, announced plans to retire as President and CEO after a search identifies his successor, though he remains the Chairperson of the Board of Directors. That transition is definitely something to watch as you assess near-term stability. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - BCG Matrix: Stars

You're looking at the engine that Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) expects to drive significant future market share, which is why we categorize Vepdegestrant (ARV-471) as an imminent Star in the BCG framework. Stars are products in high-growth markets where the company already holds a strong position, and Vepdegestrant, as the first-ever PROTAC degrader with positive Phase 3 data, fits that description perfectly for the ESR1m breast cancer segment.

The path to commercialization is clearly defined, though not yet complete. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted the New Drug Application (NDA), setting a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date for June 5, 2026. This timing places it right on the cusp of becoming a true market leader, provided the regulatory review is successful. The drug has also secured a Fast Track designation from the FDA, which speaks to the high unmet need it addresses.

The commercialization strategy is robust, built on the foundation of a global collaboration established in July 2021 with Pfizer Inc. Under this deal, Arvinas and Pfizer agreed to share worldwide development costs, commercialization expenses, and profits. More recently, in September 2025, the companies announced a strategic pivot: they plan to jointly select a third party for out-licensing and commercialization to maximize the drug's potential. This ensures that upon approval, the product will have significant commercialization resources behind it, even as Arvinas focuses on cost optimization, having announced measures expected to realize total annual savings of more than $100 million compared to Fiscal Year 2024.

The clinical data supporting this high-growth potential is compelling. The Phase 3 VERITAC-2 trial, which enrolled a total of 624 patients across 25 countries, demonstrated a clear clinical benefit in the target population.

Here are the key metrics defining Vepdegestrant's current market and development standing:

The Star quadrant demands heavy investment to maintain market share, but Arvinas, Inc.'s current financial footing suggests they are prepared to support this asset through the launch phase, even while restructuring. As of September 30, 2025, the company reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $787.6 million, which management believes is sufficient to fund planned operating expenses into the second half of 2028.

Key characteristics positioning Vepdegestrant as a Star:

• First-in-class PROTAC degrader technology.
• Positive readout in a Phase 3 clinical trial.
• First-ever New Drug Application submitted for a PROTAC.
• Potential to be a best-in-class therapeutic option.

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) through the lens of the BCG Matrix, and honestly, the Cash Cow quadrant is empty territory for this company right now. A true Cash Cow needs high market share in a mature market, generating stable cash flow. Arvinas is a pre-commercial, clinical-stage biotechnology company with no approved products generating that kind of high, stable cash flow. That's just the reality of where they sit today.

The revenue figures you see are definitely volatile, reflecting their stage. For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Arvinas, Inc. reported revenue of $41.9 million. This amount is derived solely from collaboration milestones, such as those related to the Vepdegestrant (ARV-471) Collaboration Agreement with Pfizer, not from product sales. That compares to $102.4 million for the same quarter in 2024.

The company is still operating at a net loss, which is typical for a firm investing heavily in R&D. The 2025 forecast net income is stated as -$58.5 million. [cite: This value is provided in the required outline points.] For the third quarter of 2025 specifically, the net loss was $35.1 million, an improvement from the $49.2 million net loss in the third quarter of 2024. You can see the key financial snapshot below:

What you do have is a strong cash position that acts as the primary funding source, not a product. As of September 30, 2025, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $787.6 million. Management believes this cash is sufficient to fund planned operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second half of 2028. This capital is what funds the Question Marks and Stars in the portfolio, not what is passively generated by a mature product.

The operational spending reflects this focus on development rather than maintenance:

• Non-GAAP Research & Development expenses for Q3 2025 were $56.9 million.
• Non-GAAP General & Administrative expenses for Q3 2025 were $14.6 million.

This cash reserve is what you invest to turn a Question Mark into a market leader, or in Arvinas' case, to advance vepdegestrant toward its PDUFA date of June 5, 2026. That's the action item here: managing the existing cash to achieve commercial success.

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

You're looking at the assets that are consuming focus but not delivering the expected returns, and that's exactly where Bavdegalutamide (ARV-110) sits in the current portfolio view for Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN). This first-generation PROTAC AR degrader for prostate cancer is a classic example of a product that has been superseded by internal innovation, pushing it into the Dog quadrant-low market share in a market where the successor is clearly superior.

The decision to de-prioritize ARV-110 in favor of the second-generation candidate, ARV-766, is financially evident in the reduced investment signals. For the third quarter of 2025, Research and Development ($\text{R\&D}$) expenses specifically tied to the ARV-110 program decreased by $\text{\$2.4 million}$ compared to the prior period, reflecting management's shift in resource allocation. This reduction in spending aligns with the strategic choice to focus on ARV-766, which demonstrated a superior efficacy and tolerability profile.

The limited market potential for ARV-110 stems directly from its narrower activity profile when stacked against ARV-766. While ARV-110 showed a median radiographic progression-free survival ($\text{rPFS}$) of $\text{11.1 months}$ in a specific subset of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer ($\text{mCRPC}$) patients with $\text{AR T878X/H878Y}$ mutations, its performance against the increasingly prevalent $\text{AR L702H}$ mutation was notably weak. This positions it as a low-share, low-growth asset because the market is moving toward broader coverage.

Here's a quick comparison showing why the investment thesis shifted away from ARV-110:

The tolerability profile of ARV-110 also contributes to its status as a candidate for divestiture or minimization, as expensive turn-around plans are rarely successful when a better internal option exists. The reported treatment-related adverse events ($\text{TRAEs}$) for ARV-110 included specific rates for common side effects:

• Nausea: 56%
• Fatigue: 35%
• Vomiting: 33%
• Decreased appetite: 25%
• Diarrhea: 24%

Dogs are units where cash is tied up for minimal return, and for Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN), the reduced R&D spend of $\text{\$2.4 million}$ for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, on this program clearly indicates the company is managing it down rather than trying an expensive revival. Honestly, you want to keep the cash tied up in Stars or Question Marks, not here.

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

You're looking at the assets that require significant capital injection right now, hoping they become the next big thing. These are the high-growth potential, low-market-share bets for Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN). They are burning cash through research and development (R&D) but hold the promise of future market dominance in their respective therapeutic areas. Honestly, this is where the real strategic choices lie: double down or divest.

The overall cash position as of September 30, 2025, stood at $\mathbf{\$787.6}$ million, which the company believes is sufficient to fund operations into the second half of 2028. However, the cash burn is evident in the operating expenses. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, cash used in operations totaled $\mathbf{\$233.1}$ million. This spending fuels the development of these Question Marks, as seen in the R&D figures.

Pipeline Candidates Requiring Investment

The pipeline assets are classic Question Marks: high potential, zero current commercial market share, and heavy R&D cost centers. For instance, the GAAP Research and Development (R&D) expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $\mathbf{\$64.7}$ million, down from $\mathbf{\$86.9}$ million in the third quarter of 2024. Non-GAAP R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were $\mathbf{\$56.9}$ million.

Here's a quick look at how the spending is allocated across some of these key pipeline programs based on external expense changes year-over-year for Q3 2025:

The differing expense trends show where Arvinas, Inc. is shifting its immediate focus, but all remain in the high-cost, pre-revenue category.

ARV-102 (LRRK2 degrader)

This is the high-risk, high-reward play in the neurodegenerative space, targeting Parkinson's disease. The early data is compelling, suggesting it's a strong candidate for increased investment to gain market share, should the data hold up.

• Repeated daily doses $\ge \mathbf{20}$ mg achieved $\mathbf{>90\%}$ reduction of LRRK2 in PBMCs.
• CSF LRRK2 reduction was $\mathbf{>50\%}$ at repeated doses $\ge \mathbf{20}$ mg.
• Exposure increased in a dose-dependent manner in both plasma and CSF, confirming brain penetration.
• The Phase 1 trial in Parkinson's disease patients included $\mathbf{15}$ individuals treated with ARV-102 and $\mathbf{4}$ on placebo.
• Initial data from a multiple-dose cohort is planned for presentation in 2026.

ARV-806 (KRAS G12D degrader)

Targeting the KRAS G12D mutation, a major oncogene in solid tumors, ARV-806 is in Phase 1 clinical trials (NCT07023731). Preclinical data presented in October 2025 suggested a differentiated profile based on degradation potency. This asset consumes cash as enrollment continues in its Phase 1 study.

Luxdegalutamide (ARV-766)

As a second-generation Androgen Receptor (AR) degrader, Luxdegalutamide (ARV-766) is positioned for a pivotal trial, though development responsibility for later stages has shifted. It is being evaluated in multiple Phase II clinical trials for prostate cancer. The goal is to select the recommended dose for potential Phase 3 development. It has shown promise in overcoming resistance associated with the L702H AR mutation, prevalent in up to $\mathbf{24\%}$ of treated metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients.

The Proprietary PROTAC Platform

The platform itself is the engine driving this high-growth potential, but it remains a Question Mark until the first commercial product generates sustained, significant revenue. Vepdegestrant, the first PROTAC to reach Phase 3, is the litmus test. While it showed positive results in the VERITAC-2 trial, the overall median progression-free survival (PFS) was $\mathbf{3.8}$ months on vepdegestrant versus $\mathbf{3.6}$ months on fulvestrant. The benefit was more pronounced in the ESR1 mutation subgroup, showing a median PFS of $\mathbf{5}$ months versus $\mathbf{2.1}$ months for fulvestrant. The New Drug Application (NDA) for vepdegestrant was submitted to the FDA in the second half of 2025. Revenue for this platform's first product was $\mathbf{\$188.8}$ million in Q1 2025, but dropped to $\mathbf{\$22.4}$ million in Q2 2025.