Avista Corporation (AVA): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at how Avista Corporation plans to grow, and frankly, their strategy is a classic balancing act between steady regulated utility returns and chasing new tech dollars. With their \$2.52 to \$2.72 2025 earnings guidance in sight, the \$525 million capital plan is the engine driving everything from securing big local customers (Market Penetration) to exploring non-contiguous utility buys (Market Development) and rolling out EV charging (Product Development). Honestly, the real intrigue is in the Diversification quadrant, where they are putting \$9 million into non-regulated ventures like VPP software to offset the 'Other' segment's recent loss. Let's break down exactly where this utility giant is placing its bets across all four growth avenues below.

Avista Corporation (AVA) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Secure new large load customers within the current 30,000 square mile service area.

Avista Utilities serves a territory spanning 30,000 square miles across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of southern and eastern Oregon, covering a population of 1.7 million people. The company is actively seeking additional large load customers, as noted in its 2025 plans. The focus is on growth within this existing footprint.

Increase enrollment in energy efficiency programs, targeting a 32% demand reduction over 20 years.

Energy efficiency continues to be a key strategy to manage future demand. The long-term goal is to meet 32% of future demand through energy efficiency measures over the next 20 years. Near-term targets are set for specific regions.

• Historical retail load reduction due to efficiency programs: Approximately 10 percent, or 120 aMW.
• Washington biannual energy efficiency target (2026-2027): 73,672 MWh.
• Idaho biannual energy efficiency target (2026-2027): 19,595 MWh.

Optimize regulatory outcomes in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon to support rate base growth.

The company made significant progress with its regulatory strategy in 2024, achieving constructive outcomes in Washington general rate cases. The expectation for 2025 includes continued regulatory execution in Oregon and Idaho. A general rate case filing was expected in Q1 of 2025, with new rates potentially effective in September 2025.

Drive higher utilization of natural gas services among the 383,000 existing customers.

Avista Utilities serves 383,000 natural gas customers. The natural gas utility margin increased in 2024, impacted primarily by the effects of general rate cases and customer growth. The company is also focused on its natural gas emission reduction goal of being carbon neutral by 2045, with a near-term goal of 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

Invest in wildfire mitigation to reduce risk and improve service reliability.

Capital investment supports reliability improvements, including wildfire mitigation. Avista Utilities expected capital expenditures for 2025 to be about $525 million. For the five-year period ending in 2029, total capital expenditures at Avista Utilities are expected to be nearly $3 billion. Mitigation efforts focus on vegetation management and grid hardening in the areas identified as having the highest risk.

Avista Corporation (AVA) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

Pursue new, non-contiguous utility acquisitions outside the core Pacific Northwest region.

Avista Corporation (AVA) currently operates Avista Utilities, serving electric customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of southern and eastern Oregon, covering a service territory population of 1.7 million people. The existing non-contiguous utility is Alaska Electric Light and Power (AEL&P), which provides retail electric service to 18,000 customers in Juneau, Alaska. Year-to-date through the third quarter of 2025, AEL&P contributed $4 million to net income, with an expected full-year 2025 diluted share contribution in the range of $0.09 to $0.11.

Leverage the Alaska Electric Light and Power (AEL&P) subsidiary to explore other non-US mainland markets.

Historically, there has been discussion about exploring opportunities for Avista's natural gas business in Juneau and beyond, specifically mentioning Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for all of Southeast Alaska. AEL&P itself generates 100 percent of its base-load power through five hydropower plants, with the largest, Snettisham, having a maximum peak output of 78 megawatts and an average annual energy output of 295 million kilowatt hours.

Bid on regional transmission projects that extend beyond the current service territory.

Avista Utilities is actively planning for transmission expansion. The 2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) identifies the proposed North Plains Connector transmission line as a preferred resource alternative, along with other upgrades in the inland northwest. Furthermore, Avista Utilities issued an All-Source Request for Proposal (RFP) in May 2025 seeking proposals to meet resource needs up to 415 MW for winter capacity and 425 MW for summer capacity.

Market wholesale energy and resource management services to new Western US states.

Avista Utilities engages in wholesale purchases and sales of electricity and natural gas as part of its energy resource management. For the full year 2024, Wholesale Electric Revenues were $225 million, with Wholesale Energy Sales at 3,740 Thousand of MWhs. For natural gas, Wholesale Delivered volumes were 271,803 Thousand of Therms, generating $61 million in Wholesale Natural Gas Revenues in 2024. Avista Corp. is a participant in the Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) and operates in the western United States and western Canada energy markets.

Target new industrial or commercial customer segments in existing states, like data centers.

Avista is focused on meeting growing customer demand, noting that annual energy demand has been historically flat with a growth rate of 0.09 percent per year since 2014. However, peak loads are growing faster, with summer peak load forecast to grow by 1.14 percent annually and winter peak by 1.12 percent over the next 20 years. The company noted a new industrial customer increased load by 34.3 aMW starting in August 2024. The 2025 RFP process is designed to secure resources to meet these growing needs.

Here's a quick look at some key 2025 planned investments and guidance points:

• Avista Utilities expected capital expenditures for 2025: about $525 million.
• AEL&P expected capital expenditures for 2025: $19 million.
• Other businesses expected capital investment for 2025: $5 million.
• Avista Utilities expected 2025 EPS contribution range: $2.43 to $2.61 per diluted share.
• Consolidated 2025 earnings guidance range: $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share.

You can see the scale of the utility operations in the table below:

Avista Corporation (AVA) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Avista Corporation (AVA) plans to grow by introducing new offerings, which is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. Here are the hard numbers driving that strategy for 2025 and beyond.

Grid Modernization Investment

The foundation for new product rollouts is a significant capital commitment to the grid itself. You should note the specific allocation for this modernization effort.

• Invest $525 million in 2025 capital expenditure for Avista Utilities, focused on advanced grid modernization technology.
• The expected base annual capital expenditure for Avista Utilities is projected to be $525 million in 2025, rising to $575 million in 2026 and $605 million in 2027.
• Total expected base capital expenditures for Avista Utilities through 2030 are nearly $3 billion.

Demand Response Programs

To manage system strain, Avista is developing programs to actively reduce customer demand during peak times. Here's what the planning documents show for capacity reduction targets.

The 2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) recommends starting demand response programs designed to work with customers to lower their demand when the system is experiencing peak loads.

Community Solar and Battery Storage Offerings

Meeting the long-term clean energy mandate requires scaling up renewable integration, including storage solutions. Avista Corporation has a stated long-term clean electricity target.

• Goal to serve customers with 100% clean electricity by 2045.
• Target for 100% renewable or non-carbon emitting supply by 2045 via the 2025 CEIP.
• Previous Community Solar project in Spokane Valley served about 650 customers.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Infrastructure Services

The rollout of EV charging services is supported by specific incentives and capacity planning. You can see the scale of past investment versus future goals.

The Transportation Electrification Plan (TE Plan) includes a regional buildout for public, workplace, and fleet charging infrastructure.

Smart Home Energy Management Services

Leveraging grid-interactive building projects involves specific funding and partnership milestones to deploy technology that helps customers manage usage. These projects are designed to optimize energy consumption across multiple buildings.

• The Pullman Smart Grid Demonstration Project is a $38 million effort.
• The Spokane Connected Communities Project won $6.65 million in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funding, with Avista and partners investing an additional $4.9 million in matching funds.
• This project aims to optimize up to 75 residential and commercial buildings.

The goal is to deploy technologies, including advanced metering, in-home devices, and web tools, which will enable customers to actively monitor and better manage their energy usage. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Avista Corporation (AVA) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at the growth path Avista Corporation (AVA) is charting outside its core regulated utility business, which is classic diversification-new products/services in new markets. This is where the non-regulated segment, which has been a drag, needs a sharp pivot.

The plan centers on deploying capital into energy technology ventures. Specifically, the strategy calls to invest the planned $9 million in 2025 non-regulated capital into energy-tech joint ventures. This is a targeted allocation for new, non-utility growth engines. For context on the 'Other' businesses' current capital plan, the company expects to invest $5 million in 2025 at its other businesses related to non-regulated strategic investment opportunities and economic development projects in their service territory.

A key area for this diversification involves software and intellectual property. You're looking to commercialize proprietary grid and wildfire risk mitigation software to other US utilities. Given that Avista's cumulative 10-year financial risk from wildfire is estimated to be between $490 million and $4.7 billion, any software that helps manage this risk-which Avista has developed using GIS technology-has a clear value proposition for peers facing similar threats.

Developing and selling virtual power plant (VPP) software solutions nationally is another pillar, leveraging the existing investment in Edo. Edo, which Avista is an investor in, already partners with utilities to aggregate distributed energy resources (DERs) into VPPs, using AI-driven technology to optimize thousands of buildings. This moves Avista's expertise from just managing its own grid to selling grid-edge management tools.

The acquisition strategy focuses on small, non-regulated businesses in the distributed energy resource (DER) space. This aligns with the regulated utility's 2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan, which identifies the need for new renewable resources and reliable generation resources, including energy storage, by the end of the decade.

Refocusing the 'Other' segment is critical to stop the bleeding. The goal here is to reverse the year-to-date $0.16 per diluted share loss recorded in the first three quarters of 2025 from these other businesses. This loss is a primary reason the company expects its 2025 consolidated earnings per share to land at the lower end of the $2.52 to $2.72 range. The regulated utility side, Avista Utilities, is performing well, expected to contribute toward the upper end of a range of $2.43 to $2.61 per diluted share in 2025.

Here's a look at the segment performance driving the need for this diversification pivot:

The success of this diversification hinges on a few key execution points:

• Secure commercial contracts for grid/wildfire software by year-end 2026.
• Scale VPP software sales nationally, targeting at least 10 new utility partners.
• Integrate acquired small DER businesses to achieve positive segment earnings in 2026.
• Ensure Avista Utilities maintains its expected $2.43 to $2.61 EPS contribution.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.