BGSF, Inc. (BGSF): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're asking for the real story on BGSF, Inc., and honestly, it's a tightrope walk for 2025. The core challenge is simple: how do they keep growing when near-term recessionary fears are tightening client budgets, especially in permanent placements? The answer lies in their ability to defintely capture the structural demand for specialized IT talent-think high-margin AI and Data Science roles-while simultaneously managing the inflationary wage pressure that's hitting their Light Industrial segment. We need to look past the headlines and map out exactly how the Political shifts in contractor law and the rapid pace of Technological change will either fuel their growth or stall it out. Let's dig into the full PESTLE breakdown to see the clear, actionable risks and opportunities.

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

Increased focus on independent contractor classification at the federal level.

The regulatory environment for worker classification remains the single largest political risk to the staffing industry, including BGSF's remaining Property Management segment. You're dealing with a constant state of flux, which creates compliance headaches and potential financial liabilities.

The US Department of Labor (DOL) introduced a new 'economic dependency test' rule in March 2024, which generally made it harder to classify workers as independent contractors (ICs) under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). However, as of May 1, 2025, the DOL's Wage and Hour Division (WHD) issued a Field Assistance Bulletin stating they will not enforce the 2024 Rule in current investigations due to ongoing legal challenges. Instead, they are reverting to the older, multi-factor guidance from Fact Sheet #13 (2008).

This judicial and regulatory back-and-forth means staffing firms must manage compliance under two or more potential standards simultaneously. If a court upholds the 2024 rule, BGSF's Property Management business, which provides office and maintenance field talent, would face a higher risk of misclassification penalties for its contract workforce. Honestly, this regulatory whiplash is defintely a drain on legal and HR resources.

Potential for new federal mandates on minimum wage or paid leave.

Labor cost inflation driven by political mandates poses a direct, near-term threat to the profitability of BGSF's core Property Management segment. This segment primarily staffs hourly roles like leasing agents and maintenance technicians in 44 states and D.C..

While the federal minimum wage remains at $7.25 per hour, there is ongoing legislative discussion in 2025 to raise the national minimum wage to $15 per hour. Even without a federal change, a significant number of states and cities have already implemented or scheduled increases for 2025. Plus, the trend of expanding state-level paid sick leave laws continues, with more states enacting or broadening these requirements.

Here's the quick math: Any mandate that increases the base wage or requires accrual of paid leave for short-term, temporary assignments directly raises the cost of goods sold (COGS) for BGSF. Since the Property Management segment's gross margins were approximately 35.8% in Q2 2025, a sudden, mandated increase in labor costs could compress margins quickly unless the company can pass the full cost to clients.

• Mandated wage hikes: Directly increase payroll costs for hourly workers.
• Expanded paid leave: Adds complexity and cost for tracking accrual on short-term assignments.

Geopolitical tensions slowing client expansion in global IT staffing segments.

This is a risk BGSF has largely mitigated through a major strategic decision in 2025. Geopolitical tensions, such as the intensifying US-China rivalry and trade conflicts, are identified as a top threat to global business growth, expected to drive business model transformation in 34% of surveyed organizations. These tensions specifically complicate global talent mobility and create uncertainty for IT staffing firms that rely on foreign workers or offshore capabilities.

BGSF's exposure to this global volatility was primarily through its IT Consulting and Near/Offshore Software Engineering practices within the Professional Division. However, BGSF signed a definitive agreement to sell its entire Professional Division to INSPYR Solutions for $99 million in an all-cash deal, which closed in the second half of 2025.

What this means is that the risk of geopolitical tensions slowing client expansion in the global IT staffing market has been effectively transferred to the buyer, INSPYR Solutions. BGSF's continuing operations are now focused solely on the US domestic Property Management sector, which is insulated from global IT staffing geopolitical headwinds.

Shifting government contract spending impacting their Professional segment.

Similar to geopolitical risk, the impact of shifting government contract spending is now a non-factor for BGSF's continuing operations. The Professional segment, which included IT Consulting and Managed Solutions, would have been the division to capitalize on or be impacted by federal spending trends.

The federal professional services market is robust, with the FY 2025 Federal Budget Request earmarking nearly $136 billion for professional services, a 7.9% increase from FY 2024. Key trends include a push for outcome-based contracting and a tightening of cybersecurity compliance (like CMMC by late 2025).

By selling the Professional Division for $99 million, BGSF strategically exited this market. They chose to de-risk and focus on the Property Management segment, which operates in a less volatile, non-government-dependent commercial real estate market. The opportunity and the associated political risk of navigating federal procurement rules-like the shift toward outcome-based contracts-now belong to INSPYR Solutions.

The table below summarizes the shift in political exposure post-divestiture:

Your next step is to drill down into the cost models for the Property Management segment to quantify the exact financial impact of a state-level minimum wage increase or a new paid leave mandate.

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

The economic landscape in 2025 presents a mixed bag for BGSF, Inc., especially following the strategic divestiture of its Professional Division. The company is now largely focused on its Property Management segment, which is highly sensitive to labor market shifts and client operational budgets. The primary economic challenges stem from persistent wage inflation and a cautious corporate spending environment, even as the high cost of capital for M&A begins to moderate slightly.

Interest rate hikes pushing the cost of capital higher for M&A activity.

While the Federal Reserve has shifted from aggressive rate hikes to a more measured approach, the cost of capital remains significantly elevated compared to the pre-2022 period. For BGSF, this risk is largely mitigated by their recent strategic move: the sale of the Professional Division for $99 million in 2025 allowed them to pay off approximately $46 million in outstanding debt. This deleveraging is a smart move, but the general M&A environment is still tough.

Here's the quick math on the broader market: the 10-year Treasury rate, a key benchmark for discounting future cash flows, was around 4.77% in early 2025, with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) yielding 6.93%. This elevated risk-free rate directly increases the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for any new acquisition BGSF might pursue to expand its Property Management footprint. Global M&A volumes, for context, dropped 9% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, showing that high financing costs are still cooling deal activity.

Client budget tightening leading to slower permanent placement revenue growth.

Economic uncertainty is making clients hesitant to take on fixed costs, which directly impacts the permanent placement side of the staffing business. For BGSF's continuing operations (Property Management), the third quarter of 2025 saw revenue fall 9.9% year-over-year to $26.9 million. This overall decline in the core segment revenue is a clear signal of budget tightening, despite management noting higher perm placement revenue within the Property Management segment in Q1 2025. It's a mixed message, but the top-line contraction is the real story.

Clients are delaying or scaling back projects, preferring to use temporary or contract labor to manage their workforce with maximum flexibility. This caution is a double-edged sword: it slows the high-margin permanent placement revenue, but it creates a potential opportunity for their temporary staffing services, provided the economic slowdown doesn't turn into a deep recession.

Inflationary wage pressure in the IT and Light Industrial segments.

Wage inflation remains a significant margin pressure for BGSF. Even with the sale of the high-demand IT segment, the remaining Property Management business relies on field staff (e.g., maintenance, leasing agents) who fall into a category similar to Light Industrial. This segment is experiencing its own cost-of-labor squeeze.

Consider the data:

• Average pay raises across the US economy are projected to range from 3.5% to 3.9% in 2025.
• The Manufacturing sector, a good proxy for Light Industrial wage pressure, saw a wage growth of 3.4% in 2025.
• The IT sector, which was part of the divested Professional segment, saw even higher pressure, with median salary growth of +28% between 2022 and 2025, and a projected 3.3% median rise in 2025 alone.

This persistent upward pressure on wages means BGSF must either pass those costs on to clients-risking lower demand-or absorb them, which compresses gross margins. For Q3 2025, the gross profit for continuing operations was $9.7 million, with a margin of 35.9% of sales. Managing wage inflation is defintely critical to maintaining that margin.

Near-term recessionary fears impacting temporary staffing demand in late 2025.

The biggest near-term risk is a full-blown recession. The US labor market has shown signs of sluggishness, including the first monthly job loss since December 2020 in August 2025, and unemployment climbing to 4.3%. This caution translates directly to the staffing industry.

When companies get anxious about a recession, they cut the most flexible part of their workforce first: temporary staff. In the first quarter of 2025, US temporary and contract staffing sales declined 10.8% year-over-year, totaling $28.1 billion. This pre-emptive cutting is a clear sign that recessionary fears are already priced into corporate hiring decisions. For BGSF's Property Management segment, which relies heavily on temporary placements for seasonal and operational demand, this broader market contraction poses a direct threat to revenue in the latter half of 2025.

Here is a summary of the key economic indicators impacting BGSF in 2025:

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

As a seasoned analyst, I look at social factors as direct indicators of labor supply and pricing power for a workforce solutions provider like BGSF, Inc. The current environment is a mixed bag: demand for flexible talent is high, but the cost of securing specialized skills, particularly in the Property Management segment, continues to rise. The company's focus on its continuing operations-primarily Property Management-reported $26.9 million in revenue for Q3 2025, a sequential increase of 14.4%, showing that their core service is capitalizing on seasonal demand and a tight labor market.

This market resilience is directly tied to the underlying social shifts we're seeing. You need to understand these shifts because they dictate where your recruiting dollars go and what kind of margin you can expect. Here's the quick math: high demand for specialized roles plus low supply means higher bill rates and a competitive advantage for firms that can deliver.

Sustained demand for flexible, remote, and hybrid work arrangements.

The post-pandemic shift to flexible work is not a trend; it's a permanent fixture of the US labor market in 2025. Employees are demanding it, and companies that don't offer it are losing talent. Specifically, 74% of employees now prefer hybrid models that combine in-office and remote work. This is a massive opportunity for BGSF, Inc. because temporary and contract work is inherently flexible. Their service model-which explicitly supports on-site, remote, and hybrid arrangements-is perfectly aligned with this social preference.

• Flexible work is a key tool for attracting talent.
• Contract roles are now a strategic lever for specialized capability, not just a stopgap.
• Companies failing to accommodate flexibility risk losing their best people.

Labor shortages in specialized IT and healthcare roles driving up bill rates.

While BGSF, Inc. has divested its Professional division, the underlying labor shortage in specialized fields still impacts the broader staffing ecosystem and informs the pricing environment for their remaining Property Management segment, which also requires skilled trades. In the healthcare sector, for example, the supply-demand imbalance is stark: the number of published healthcare resumes was down nearly 40% compared to job postings in August 2024. This persistent shortage, coupled with the high demand for niche skills like cybersecurity, data analytics, and PropTech implementations, keeps bill rates elevated across the board.

The skills gap is real, and it's the biggest barrier to business transformation for 63% of employers over the 2025-2030 period. This forces clients to rely on staffing firms for immediate access to pre-qualified expertise, which is defintely a tailwind for BGSF's core business model.

Generational shift in workforce prioritizing work-life balance and gig economy options.

The younger workforce-and increasingly, all workers-are prioritizing quality of life over traditional career ladders. The gig economy is a major factor, with more workers opting for freelance, remote, and contract-based opportunities instead of traditional full-time employment. While 73% of staffing employees work full-time, 20% choose temporary or contract work specifically for schedule flexibility.

This shift benefits BGSF, Inc. by expanding the available talent pool for their Property Management clients, who often have seasonal or project-based needs (e.g., apartment move-ins/turns). It means they can access talent that would otherwise be unavailable in the traditional full-time market. The key action for BGSF is to design a strong experience for their temporary talent, including fast onboarding and recognition rituals, to ensure high-performers return for the next project.

Increased client focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) in talent sourcing.

Despite a polarized political environment causing some smaller staffing firms to cease DE&I initiatives, large companies and the general market continue to view inclusive hiring as a strategic imperative. In North America, 96% of companies headquartered here have a DE&I initiative in place. Meeting inclusive hiring goals is cited as the biggest obstacle by 44% of recruiters in 2025. For BGSF, Inc., this translates to a mandate from their enterprise clients to source diverse talent pools.

• Companies prioritizing diversity report a 20% increase in innovation.
• Flexible work arrangements are seen as a DE&I strategy, increasing workforce diversity by 17% on average.
• The potential for tapping into diverse talent pools is highlighted by 47% of employers, a four-fold increase from two years ago.

The opportunity is clear: BGSF can differentiate its service by providing a diverse slate of candidates, especially by leveraging their flexible work model to reach underrepresented groups. Finance: track client DE&I sourcing requests as a new revenue driver by end of Q4 2025.

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in recruiting and candidate matching.

You can't talk about staffing in 2025 without talking about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The industry is moving incredibly fast, and for BGSF, this is both a massive opportunity and a competitive pressure. Industry-wide, a staggering 61% of staffing firms are already using AI, up significantly from the previous year, with projections that 75% of the sector will have adopted it by the end of 2025. That's not a trend; it's the new baseline. For BGSF, which is now laser-focused on its Property Management segment following the $99 million divestiture of its Professional Division in September 2025, the strategic move is to embed AI directly into its core operations.

The company is actively investing in tools, specifically stating their AI-powered sales and recruiting technologies are on track to be operational soon. This is a smart move, because the numbers show AI works: 38% of firms report improved candidate matching, and 32% have seen a reduced time-to-fill, which directly impacts client satisfaction and BGSF's profitability. We're seeing AI primarily used for conversational tasks (55% adoption) and job matching (43% adoption), which means BGSF's new tools must be defintely focused on automating the high-volume, repetitive tasks in property management staffing.

Automation tools potentially reducing demand for some Light Industrial roles.

The risk here isn't that Light Industrial jobs vanish entirely; it's that the type of job changes, and BGSF needs to staff for that shift. The Property Management segment, which includes maintenance talent, is exposed to the broader automation trends impacting logistics and manufacturing. While the World Economic Forum projects that automation will displace around 85 million jobs globally by 2025, it will simultaneously create 97 million new ones that require different skills. The real challenge for BGSF's clients is that 86% of manufacturing executives view smart factory solutions as crucial, meaning their facilities are getting smarter.

This means demand is shifting away from purely manual labor toward roles that require a blend of technical and problem-solving skills-think maintenance technicians who can troubleshoot a smart HVAC system or a robotic floor cleaner. BGSF's opportunity is to be the staffing firm that provides the new, upskilled talent. They need to ensure their training programs are creating workers who can operate and maintain advanced machinery, not just perform basic tasks. The table below shows the clear shift in focus for the industry:

Need for continuous investment in proprietary Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) to stay competitive.

In the staffing business, your Applicant Tracking System (ATS) is your central nervous system. It's where your talent pool lives, and its efficiency directly impacts your gross margin. BGSF has acknowledged the need for operational efficiencies and innovation, specifically mentioning investing in technology as a key strategic pillar. The company is streamlining its cost structure, anticipating a reduction in expected annual cash capital expenditures by approximately $800,000 during 2025 by shifting development support to a near-shore operation. This cost-saving measure is intended to free up capital for high-return investments in the core Property Management business.

The key here is that the ATS must be integrated with the new AI tools to deliver a seamless experience. If BGSF's system isn't fast and smart, they lose candidates to competitors who have already adopted AI to automate candidate communication (the most popular AI application at 55%). Given the Property Management segment had Q3 2025 revenues of $26.9 million, a marginal improvement in recruiter efficiency from a better ATS can translate into a significant boost in Adjusted EBITDA, which was $1.0 million (or 3.6% of revenues) in Q3 2025. You need to spend money to make money in tech right now.

Cybersecurity risks escalating due to remote workforce management and data handling.

The shift to remote and hybrid work models, coupled with the massive amount of sensitive data handled by a staffing firm, has made cybersecurity a top-tier risk. Staffing agencies manage personally identifiable information (PII) for thousands of candidates and employees-social security numbers, bank details, and work history. As BGSF focuses on its Property Management segment, which relies on a large, dispersed workforce, the attack surface expands. Industry data shows that risk management is a major IT priority for 44% of companies in 2025.

The integration of AI also heightens the risk profile. AI systems handle vast amounts of sensitive data during candidate matching, which makes them prime targets for breaches. BGSF must allocate a significant portion of its technology investment to robust data governance and security measures to maintain client trust and comply with evolving privacy regulations. The critical areas for BGSF's cybersecurity focus in 2025 are:

• Implementing robust encryption for all candidate and client data.
• Ensuring compliance with data privacy laws across all 80+ locations nationwide.
• Securing the remote access points used by recruiters and field talent.
• Conducting regular third-party audits of the new AI-powered systems.

Failure here doesn't just mean a financial loss; it means a catastrophic loss of credibility in a relationship-driven business.

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Stricter State-Level Labor Laws

The legal landscape for staffing and consulting firms like BGSF, Inc. is increasingly fragmented, moving away from a uniform federal standard and toward a complex patchwork of state and local regulations. This divergence is most evident in two key areas: non-compete agreements and pay transparency. While the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) non-compete rule faced a nationwide injunction, the legislative trend in many states continues to restrict these covenants, often based on salary thresholds or job function. Conversely, states like Florida have moved in the opposite direction with the CHOICE Act, effective July 1, 2025, which makes non-competes more enforceable for high-earning employees and independent contractors, allowing for restrictions up to four years.

For BGSF's Professional segment, which deals with specialized IT and Finance talent, this means a constant reassessment of employment contracts. You cannot use a one-size-fits-all agreement anymore. Simultaneously, pay transparency laws are sweeping the country, requiring companies to post salary ranges in job descriptions or upon request. California, for example, added to its pay data reporting rules and clarified the definition of 'pay scale' in November 2025, which adds another layer of administrative complexity to the hiring process.

Ongoing Litigation Risk Related to Worker Misclassification (W-2 vs. 1099)

Worker misclassification remains one of the single greatest legal and financial risks for any company relying on a contingent workforce, which is BGSF's core business model. The stakes are defintely higher in 2025 following the U.S. Department of Labor's adoption of the six-factor 'Economic Realities' test in early 2024, which increases scrutiny on a worker's economic dependence on the company. This federal standard, coupled with stricter state-level tests like California's 'ABC Test,' creates a severe compliance challenge for a multi-state operator.

The financial exposure is massive and concrete. In a recent, highly relevant case from July 2025, a U.S. Appeals Court affirmed a judgment against a staffing agency for misclassifying over 1,000 nurses under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), resulting in a $9.3 million liability. Furthermore, a California court recommended a $1.3 million default judgment in a separate misclassification case in April 2025. This is not theoretical risk; it is a clear, multi-million-dollar threat to the balance sheet.

Compliance Costs Rising Due to Complex, Varying State and Local Employment Regulations

The sheer volume and variability of state and local regulations are driving up operating costs. Studies indicate that compliance costs for mid-to-large organizations have increased by 30% over the past five years. For BGSF, managing a workforce across multiple states means tracking a constant flow of updates on minimum wage, paid leave, sick time, and scheduling laws-all of which vary by city and county.

The core challenge is the administrative burden on the Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) line item. BGSF reported SG&A expenses of $18.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. A significant portion of this is dedicated to legal, HR technology, and internal audit functions needed just to keep pace with the regulatory environment. This is a non-discretionary cost that compresses operating margins.

Data Privacy Regulations (like CCPA/CPRA) Increasing Compliance Burden for Candidate Data

The California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA) has fundamentally changed how staffing firms handle candidate and employee data, which is a major compliance burden for BGSF. The CPRA, which took full effect in 2023, eliminated the previous exemption for Human Resources data, extending the full suite of consumer privacy rights to employees, job applicants, and independent contractors.

This means BGSF must now manage requests for data access, correction, and deletion for thousands of temporary workers and candidates. Plus, the law introduces the concept of Sensitive Personal Information (SPI), which includes Social Security numbers and financial data-information routinely collected by a staffing agency.

• $1.35 million fine was issued against a national retailer in October 2025 for CCPA violations involving job applicant data.
• New regulations require businesses to conduct Risk Assessments for high-risk data processing, including employee data, before December 31, 2027.
• The use of Automated Decision-Making Technology (ADMT) in employment decisions will require a pre-use notice and an opt-out option starting in 2027, forcing an overhaul of AI-driven hiring tools.

This is a high-cost, high-risk area, and the penalty for getting it wrong is steep.

BGSF, Inc. (BGSF) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

You're a staffing firm, so your direct environmental footprint is small, mostly offices and travel. But, in 2025, the environmental factor isn't about your energy bill; it's about your clients' supply chain compliance. This is a non-negotiable risk, and a huge opportunity, as major corporations now treat their staffing partners as an extension of their own environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting requirements. You must have a clear, data-backed ESG narrative ready for your largest clients.

Growing client demand for suppliers (including staffing) to meet their ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) targets.

The pressure is real, and it's coming directly from client procurement teams. ESG is no longer a soft differentiator; it is a critical vendor selection criterion. For BGSF, Inc., serving large corporate clients in the IT and Property Management segments, this means being able to provide verifiable data on your own environmental practices.

The trend is clear: approximately 77% of companies are reporting a growing demand for responsible supply chains, and a massive 80% of businesses cite regulatory requirements as the primary driver for collecting ESG data from their suppliers. This is a procurement-led mandate. Furthermore, 66% of procurement leaders expect ESG and regulatory demands to significantly influence their sourcing strategy over the next three to five years.

This means your clients are looking at your Scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions from your supply chain, which includes your operations) and demanding alignment. If you can't provide the data, you risk losing a contract, especially in the high-margin IT consulting space where client standards are strictest.

Minimal direct operational environmental impact, but indirect pressure from large clients' supply chain standards.

As a professional services and staffing company, BGSF's core operations-recruiting, consulting, and property management placement-have a low direct environmental impact (Scope 1 and 2 emissions). However, third-party assessments indicate that BGSF's negative impacts are primarily in 'GHG emissions' and 'Waste,' which is typical for office-based organizations.

The real environmental exposure is indirect, flowing from the corporate mandates of the 9,000+ clients BGSF serves annually. You are an extension of their workforce, and your environmental performance is now factored into their own Scope 3 reporting. This means BGSF must focus on reducing the environmental impact of its own internal footprint to satisfy external client audits.

Here's the quick math: With a full-year 2025 estimated revenue of $92.84 million, even a small percentage of client loss due to non-compliance with ESG supplier standards could lead to a significant revenue hit.

Focus on sustainable office operations and reduced business travel to lower carbon footprint.

BGSF's internal cost-cutting measures, while driven by financial performance, directly translate into environmental benefits. The company executed a cost restructuring plan in late 2024 and expects to deliver an estimated $2 million to $4 million in other expense reductions during 2025. A large portion of these 'other expenses' typically includes non-essential items like business travel, which is a significant source of Scope 3 emissions for professional services firms.

• Reduce air travel, which contributes about 2.5% of all human-induced CO₂ emissions, by prioritizing virtual meetings.
• Shift to energy-efficient office practices, aligning with the industry trend of eco-friendly accommodations and offices.
• Leverage the shift to near-shore operations, which reduces the need for long-haul business travel and associated carbon output.

This is a financial decision that defintely has a positive environmental side effect. Every dollar saved on unnecessary travel is a reduction in your carbon footprint, which you can then report to clients.

Risk to Property Management operations from extreme weather events impacting client facilities.

While BGSF sold its Light Industrial segment in 2022 for $30.3 million, the risk of extreme weather remains highly relevant through its core Property Management segment. This segment staffs for commercial real estate, including industrial facilities, which are directly exposed to physical climate risks.

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity across the U.S. In 2024 alone, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S., totaling US$182 billion in damages.

The risk to BGSF is not facility damage, but a sudden, unplannable drop in demand for staffing services when a client facility is shut down by a flood, wildfire, or extreme heat. This directly impacts the revenue stream of the Property Management division, which generated $26.9 million in Q3 2025 revenue.

The key risk factors for BGSF's Property Management clients include:

• Direct damage to client facilities, halting the need for on-site maintenance and management staff.
• Disruption of power supply through grid instability or brownouts, making client facilities non-operational.
• Increased risk of heat-related illnesses for workers in poorly ventilated industrial environments, reducing labor productivity.

Finance: Begin tracking client geographic revenue concentration against NOAA's 2025/2026 extreme weather forecast to quantify potential revenue at risk from climate events.