British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s (BTI) strategic pivot, and honestly, mapping their move from legacy cigarettes to New Categories is best done with the Ansoff Matrix. As someone who's spent two decades in this game, I see a clear, actionable roadmap here: they are aggressively defending their core business-aiming for revenue growth in FY 2025 despite a 2% global volume drop-while pouring capital, like the £650 million earmarked for 2025, into developing premium vapes like Vuse Ultra and expanding platforms like Velo into new markets like AME, which saw +4% revenue growth in H1 2025. The real long-term bet, though, is Diversification, pushing toward that 50% smokeless revenue goal by 2035 with non-nicotine ventures; let's break down exactly how these four paths-Penetration, Development, Product, and Diversification-translate into near-term action for you below.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Drive US combustibles growth, leveraging the expected return to revenue and profit growth in FY 2025.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. expects its U.S. operations to return to both revenue and profit growth in the first half and for the full fiscal year 2025. This is happening even as the U.S. Combustibles industry volume remains under pressure, showing a decline of approximately -9% year-to-date as of June 2025. To counter this, the company is focusing on premium and natural segments, where it is gaining share, driven by brands like Natural American Spirit and Lucky Strike, when excluding the deep discount segment where British American Tobacco p.l.c. is not present. The U.S. segment saw its value share increase by +10bps and volume share by +10bps (or +60bps excluding deep discount).

Increase pricing power on premium cigarette brands like Dunhill and Lucky Strike to offset the expected 2% global industry volume decline.

The global tobacco industry volume for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be down by approximately c. 2%. To manage this contraction, pricing actions are critical. For context, in 2024, robust pricing in combustibles resulted in a +5.3% price/mix increase, which helped stabilize revenue. The overall expectation for fiscal year 2025 revenue growth is 1% to 2%, which is anticipated to support an adjusted profit from operations growth of 1.5% to 2.5%.

Aggressively market Velo Plus to grow its US Modern Oral volume share beyond the 11.9% achieved in H1 2025.

The launch of Velo Plus in the U.S. has been a significant driver, delivering triple-digit revenue growth in that market. This performance propelled the total Modern Oral volume share in the U.S. up by 550 basis points to reach 11.9% by the end of the first half of 2025. Globally, Velo continues to gain traction, with its volume share rising +270bps to reach 14.3% of the Total Oral category and +350bps to reach 29.7% of the Modern Oral category across British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s top markets.

Combat illicit Vapour products in the US and Canada to protect the existing Vuse global value share leadership.

Illicit Vapour products in the U.S. and Canada are a major headwind, causing the U.S. legal industry volume to decline by mid-teens year-to-date. This issue is expected to cause Vuse revenue to see a mid-teens revenue decline in the first half of 2025. Despite this, Vuse maintained its global value share leadership in tracked channels, though the U.S. value share was reported as flat in the first half of 2025. As of May 2025, Vuse held a value share of 34.9% in the U.S. (down from 40.8% in June 2024). The company is countering this with the phased roll-out of its new premium Vapour product, Vuse Ultra, in the second half of 2025.

Here are some key operational metrics related to the Market Penetration strategy:

• FY 2025 Group revenue growth guidance is 1% to 2%.
• FY 2025 adjusted profit from operations growth guidance is 1.5% to 2.5%.
• New Category revenue growth expected to accelerate to mid-single digit for FY 2025.
• Operating cash flow conversion expected to be in excess of 90% for FY 2025.
• Gross capital expenditure planned for 2025 is approximately £650 million.

The following table summarizes key performance indicators relevant to the Market Penetration focus areas as of the latest reporting periods:

Finance: review the H2 2025 forecast model incorporating the 1.5% to 2.5% adjusted profit from operations growth expectation by end of next week.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is pushing established products into new territories, which is the Market Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This is all about scaling what works elsewhere right now.

The focus on the Africa & Middle East (AME) region for the Velo Modern Oral platform is showing real results. For the first half of 2025, the AME region saw revenue growth of 10.4% at constant foreign exchange rates, even as the volume was down 8.3% overall. Within the Modern Oral category specifically, AME maintained volume share leadership with volume up 24.9%. This success in an existing New Category product in a new geographic area is a clear Market Development play.

We're also seeing a deliberate push for the established glo Heated Tobacco product into new European and Asian markets. The momentum is building, especially with the successful pilot of glo Hilo ahead of its phased roll-out in key markets during the second half of 2025. The plan is to roll out glo Hilo across Europe and Asia in H2 2025, specifically targeting areas where heated products are gaining regulatory acceptance.

To counter regulatory headwinds in places like Australia, the strategy involves targeting emerging economies in Asia Pacific with existing New Category products. The Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa (APMEA) region was impacted by excise duties and regulatory challenges in Australia and Bangladesh. Still, the overall New Categories revenue for H1 2025 was £1,651 million, representing a 2.4% increase at constant FX.

Here's a quick look at how the New Categories are performing, which informs where these market development efforts are focused:

Also, British American Tobacco is using its existing global distribution network to introduce established Vapour and Heated Tobacco products into duty-free channels in new regions. The Overseas Distribution Company (ODC) partnership, starting February 1, 2025, is set to handle distribution for British American Tobacco in markets ODC serves, with dialogue opened for solutions in the Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific regions. The global duty-free industry itself has shown growth, with a 6.7% CAGR since 2021.

The deployment of innovations is expected to drive an accelerated New Category performance in the second half of 2025. This expansion strategy relies on several key product rollouts and market entries:

• Velo Plus national roll-out in the U.S. driving growth.
• Phased roll-out of glo Hilo in key markets in H2 2025.
• New premium vapor product, Vuse Ultra, launching in H2 2025.
• Focus on high-profit pools in AME, which saw resource allocation changes.

The overall Group revenue growth guidance for the full year 2025 is at the top end of the 1% to 2% range. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at the Product Development strategy for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) as they push new products into existing markets to drive growth in their New Categories segment. This is where the real transformation story is playing out for 2025 and beyond.

Accelerate the H2 2025 Rollout of Vuse Ultra

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is deploying Vuse Ultra, their premium vapour offering, with a phased rollout planned across key profit pool markets, including the U.S., UK, France, and select European and Asian markets, starting in the second half of 2025. This move targets higher-margin consumers within the existing vapour category. The Vuse brand currently holds a $\text{40}\%$ value share in tracked vape markets. For context on the premium positioning, the Vuse Ultra device in the UK is priced at $\text{£}30$, with a 2ml pod (approximately 200 puffs) costing $\text{£}9$. The company expects this launch to aid in the recovery of Vuse revenue, which saw a decline of approximately $\text{15}\%$ in the first half of 2025, partly due to illicit product competition. The overall New Categories revenue growth in the first half of 2025 was low-single digit, but the company expects an acceleration in the second half, driven by these innovation rollouts.

Capital Expenditure Allocation for Next-Generation Systems

The financial commitment to these product developments is anchored by the overall capital expenditure plan for the fiscal year 2025. British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) has set its gross capital expenditure for 2025 at approximately $\text{£}650$ million. The Quality Growth focus prioritizes investment in the largest profit pools, which includes these next-generation nicotine delivery systems. The New Category contribution margin improved by $\text{2.8}$ percentage points to $\text{10.6}\%$ at constant foreign exchange rates in the first half of 2025, showing that investment is yielding better returns.

Here are some key financial context points for the New Categories:

Velo Plus Flavor and Strength Expansion in the US

The Modern Oral segment, led by Velo Plus in the U.S., is a primary growth engine, having already demonstrated triple-digit growth in the first half of 2025. To maintain this momentum, the strategy involves introducing new flavors and nicotine strengths for Velo Plus, which is designed as a larger, softer, and wetter pouch compared to competitors. The success is evident in the numbers:

• Velo volume in the USA grew $+\text{185.0}\%$ year-on-year for the four-week period ending February 22, 2025.
• Velo Plus captured $\text{5.4}\%$ of the U.S. Modern Oral share within just 12 weeks of its late 2024 launch.
• Velo's U.S. volume share increased by $\text{550}$ basis points year-on-year to reach $\text{11.9}\%$.
• Velo Plus accounted for approximately $\text{70}\%$ of the total VELO volume in a recent reading.

Deployment of the New glo Hilo Platform

The glo Hilo heated product platform is slated for deployment across Europe and Asia in the second half of 2025, aiming to recover market share against competitors like IQOS. The platform saw its nationwide launch in Japan in September 2025, following a pilot in June 2025. Initial market feedback from trials in Serbia showed doubled trial-to-conversion rates, signaling strong potential for the broader rollout. The company is targeting markets where heated products are gaining regulatory acceptance, with plans to expand into Italy, Poland, and Serbia soon after the Japan launch. This platform is central to British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)'s long-term goal of reaching $\text{50}$ million adult consumers of smokeless products by 2030.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is moving beyond its core combustible business, which is the essence of diversification in this context. The strategy hinges on building a strong foundation with its current New Categories (which are nicotine-based smokeless products) to fund and enable the eventual leap into truly non-nicotine areas.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) has established the Beyond Nicotine Foundations pillar as part of its Quality Growth strategy, aiming for long-term opportunities outside of traditional nicotine. The immediate focus is on accelerating the migration of smokers to its current smokeless portfolio, which serves as the financial engine for this broader diversification. The company is committed to becoming a predominantly smokeless business by 2035, targeting 50% of revenue from Non-Combustible products by that year.

The progress in the nicotine-based New Categories is substantial, providing the financial base for future non-nicotine ventures. For instance, in Fiscal Year 2024, revenue from Smokeless products accounted for 17.5% of Group revenue, an increase of 1.0 percentage point versus Fiscal Year 2023. This growth is supported by adding 3.6 million adult consumers of Smokeless products in 2024, bringing the total to 29.1 million consumers.

Here's a look at the recent financial performance underpinning this transformation:

To enter the non-nicotine wellness or pharmaceutical space, British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is using strategic transactions, though recent activity has focused on bolstering existing New Categories. For example, in April 2025, British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) acquired twelve PACHA synthetic vape products for $5.0 million at closing, plus up to $4.2 million contingent on first-year sales volume. Subsequently, in June 2025, three additional PACHA synthetic vape products were acquired for $1.5 million. Furthermore, a global strategic partnership with Accenture was formed in July 2025 to transform British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)'s business operations and supply chain, which is critical for agility in new sectors.

The innovation budget allocation is implicitly tied to the overall investment in New Categories and cost efficiencies. The company has committed to deliver cost savings of over £1.2 billion in the three years to 2025, with over 70% delivered to date. The planned gross capital expenditure for 2025 is approximately £650 million. The financial resources generated from combustibles are explicitly being used to fund this transformation toward new products. While a specific percentage for non-nicotine R&D isn't public, the strategy frames the current nicotine-based smokeless success as the prerequisite for achieving the 50% smokeless revenue by 2035 goal, which sets the stage for the next diversification step into non-nicotine areas.

Leveraging existing supply chain capabilities for launching non-nicotine consumer products in new geographic markets is a logical extension of the current strategy. British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) already operates in over 180 markets worldwide. The success of modern oral products like Velo in the U.S. market, where volumes could nearly double over the next three years, shows their capability to drive adoption in new segments. In the heated tobacco segment, the Japanese market shows significant adoption, with glo achieving a 44% market share in that category. The partnership with Accenture in 2025 is designed to improve agility and accelerate the adoption of digital tools, which will directly benefit any future product launches in new geographies.

Key strategic actions supporting this diversification include:

• Adding 3.6 million new Smokeless consumers in 2024.
• Targeting £900 million share repurchase in 2025.
• Expecting to generate over £8 billion of average annual free cash flow before dividends in 2025 (excluding certain items).
• Aiming for 3% to 5% revenue growth and mid-single digit adjusted profit growth by 2026 on an organic constant currency basis.
• Committing to deliver an additional £2 billion in cost savings from 2026 to 2030.