CareDx, Inc (CDNA): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at CareDx, Inc.'s (CDNA) portfolio as of late 2025, and honestly, the picture is one of strong growth but with some serious legacy baggage. We see the clear Star in AlloSure Kidney, driving nearly 20% year-over-year volume growth, while AlloMap Heart acts as the reliable Cash Cow, underpinning that solid $35 million to $39 million Adjusted EBITDA guidance. But, you can't ignore the Dogs-those persistent legal costs and potential policy headwinds-nor the Question Marks like the new AlloSure Plus platform that needs to prove itself in the market. Let's break down where CDNA is investing, harvesting, and cleaning house right now.

Background of CareDx, Inc (CDNA)

You're looking at CareDx, Inc (CDNA), which brands itself as The Transplant Company. Honestly, they've carved out a specific niche in precision medicine, focusing on discovery, development, and commercialization of high-value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and their caregivers. Headquartered in Brisbane, California, CareDx offers a suite of offerings-testing services, products, and digital healthcare solutions-that span the entire pre- and post-transplant journey. They are definitely a leading provider of genomics-based information in this space.

The business is generally segmented into three areas: Testing Services, Patient and Digital Solutions, and Lab Products. By the third quarter of 2025, the company was showing real momentum. Total revenue hit a record $100.1 million, which was a solid 21% increase year-over-year. That growth wasn't just one area; all three segments posted record quarterly revenue. For instance, Patient and Digital Solutions revenue jumped 30% to $15.4 million, while their core Testing Services revenue grew 19% to $72.2 million.

Digging into the testing side, which is central to their operation, CareDx processed approximately 50,300 tests in Q3 2025, marking a 13% volume increase over the prior year. You see their key products like AlloSure Kidney Testing and HeartCare driving this. They even launched a new tissue-based molecular test, HistoMap Kidney, late in 2025, though it's slated for availability in early 2026. This focus on innovation is helping them improve pricing power; the revenue per test in Q3 was $1,436.

Financially, the execution in 2025 was strong enough to warrant raising guidance. After Q3, CareDx narrowed its full-year 2025 revenue expectation to a range of $372 million to $376 million, up from earlier projections. More importantly, they achieved GAAP net income of $1.7 million in Q3 2025, swinging from a loss the year before, and posted an Adjusted EBITDA of $15.3 million. They closed the third quarter with a healthy balance sheet: $194.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and importantly, no debt outstanding as of September 30, 2025. They even returned some capital, repurchasing $25.6 million in shares that quarter.

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) - BCG Matrix: Stars

You're looking at the core growth engine for CareDx, Inc (CDNA) right now, and that's where AlloSure Kidney testing sits in the BCG framework. This product is definitely a Star because it's operating in a market that's expanding rapidly-the non-invasive transplant surveillance space-and CareDx, Inc (CDNA) holds a leading position within it.

The numbers from the most recent quarters really back this up. AlloSure Kidney testing volume growth accelerated, hitting nearly 20% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025. This high growth rate is exactly what you expect from a Star product that is capturing significant market share.

The financial impact of this success is clear in the overall Testing Services revenue, which is where AlloSure primarily contributes. For the third quarter of 2025, Testing Services revenue increased 19% year-over-year, reaching $72.2 million. That's a substantial amount of money flowing in, but remember, Stars consume cash to maintain that growth trajectory through promotion and placement.

Here's a quick look at how the core Testing Services segment performed in Q3 2025, which is the latest snapshot we have:

To keep this leadership position, CareDx, Inc (CDNA) is actively investing in expanding the utility of AlloSure. This is crucial for sustaining its high market share as the market matures. The company has been broadening its indications, which is a key action for a Star product.

You can see this strategic investment in the expansion of AlloSure indications, which now include support for:

• Pediatric heart transplant patients.
• Simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplant patients.

AlloSure is positioned as the leading donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) test in this non-invasive transplant surveillance market. If CareDx, Inc (CDNA) can maintain this success as the overall market growth rate inevitably slows down, this Star is definitely on the path to becoming a Cash Cow.

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at the established, reliable engine of CareDx, Inc (CDNA) here-the products that have achieved market leadership and now primarily serve to fund the rest of the company's ambitions. AlloMap Heart, for instance, is your classic example of an established gene-expression profiling (GEP) test that provides a stable, clinically validated revenue stream. It's not about explosive new growth; it's about consistent, high-margin returns from a product that transplant centers rely on daily.

The core, established Testing Services base is what really anchors this quadrant, offering the most reliable cash flow you can count on. This segment is strong enough to support the company's full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, which management has raised to a range of $35 million to $39 million. That's the cash buffer that covers administrative costs and funds the riskier Question Marks in the portfolio. Honestly, this is the part of the business you want to keep running as efficiently as possible.

To give you a clearer picture of the scale and performance driving this cash generation, look at the Q3 2025 figures for the core services and product lines:

Product revenue, which includes transplant-related kits, shows that even mature segments can still see healthy expansion. In Q3 2025, this revenue stream was reported at $12.5 million, marking a solid 22% year-over-year growth. This indicates that while the market for these kits is mature, CareDx, Inc (CDNA) is effectively maintaining or slightly increasing its share, which is exactly what you want from a Cash Cow-it's generating more than it consumes.

The maturity of this segment is perhaps best illustrated by the operational cash collections. For Q2 2025, cash collections reached 105% of adjusted Testing Services revenue, showing the company is collecting on past work efficiently. Then, in Q3 2025, collections accelerated even further, hitting 124% of testing services revenue, which drove a significant reduction in Days Sales Outstanding (DSOs) from 71 to 44 days. You defintely see the benefits of focusing on infrastructure improvements here, like Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) automation, which boosts cash flow more than heavy promotion would.

These Cash Cow units are characterized by a few key financial traits:

• High market share in established markets.
• Strong profit margins and cash flow generation.
• Low need for heavy promotional investment.
• Infrastructure investment improves efficiency.
• Provides capital for other business units.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

You're looking at the legacy issues that tie up capital and management focus, which is exactly what defines a Dog in this matrix. Even with the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation concluding in late 2024 with no finding of wrongdoing, the financial residue from past compliance and legal matters persists, most notably from the securities litigation.

The ongoing securities class action lawsuit, which alleged material misrepresentations, has resulted in a settlement agreement that requires a significant cash outlay, offering zero return on investment for current operations. Here's the quick math on that settlement fund:

What this estimate hides is the ongoing administrative cost and the drain of management time spent on final approval hearings scheduled for December 2, 2025. Also, the risk from regulatory uncertainty remains a major drag. The potential impact of the Draft Local Coverage Determination (LCD) policy, published in July 2025 and expected to finalize in early 2026, could impose an annual headwind on established revenue of $15 million to $30 million, depending on the final surveillance frequency limits.

The operational side has shown some improvement, but the initial drag from inefficiencies is clear when looking at the Q2 2025 results compared to the subsequent quarter. This category represents cash traps because resources are diverted to managing these legacy and regulatory risks instead of being fully deployed into high-growth Stars or Cash Cows. Consider these operational markers:

• Reported revenue in Q2 2025 was $86.7 million, missing the forecast of $90.62 million.
• Q2 2025 saw a GAAP net loss of $8.6 million, a deterioration from Q2 2024's loss of $4.6 million.
• The company reported an adjusted EBITDA gain of $9.1 million in Q2 2025, excluding a $3.8 million write-off of aged receivables.
• Executive turnover saw the appointment of a new Chief Medical Officer, Jeff Teuteberg, MD, in Q3 2025.
• By Q3 2025, operational efficiency improved, with revenue hitting $100.1 million (a 21% year-over-year increase) and Adjusted EBITDA reaching $15.3 million.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

You're looking at the newer, high-potential areas of CareDx, Inc (CDNA) that are burning cash while they fight for market position. These are the Question Marks in the portfolio-they need serious investment to move up or they'll stall out.

The Patient and Digital Solutions segment is definitely showing growth, but it's still a relatively small piece of the overall pie. In the third quarter of 2025, this segment brought in revenue of $15.4 million, which was a 30% increase year-over-year from the $11.9 million seen in Q3 2024. Still, when you look at the total revenue of $100.1 million for the quarter, this segment represents less than 16% of the top line.

Here's a quick look at the revenue breakdown from that strong Q3 2025 performance:

The AI-driven diagnostic platform, AlloSure Plus, which was formerly known as AlloView, is a prime example of a Question Mark. CareDx announced its launch and integration with EPIC Aura at initial launch sites in the third quarter of 2025. This platform uses artificial intelligence to combine donor-derived cell-free DNA analysis with traditional tools for personalized rejection risk assessment. An international, prospective study validated AlloSure Plus using over 2,700 renal transplant biopsies. Its market share is unproven, so you're betting on adoption here.

Next up, you have HistoMap Kidney. CareDx introduced this tissue-based gene expression profiler at the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Kidney Week in November 2025. It's designed to objectively characterize rejection type by leveraging gene expression profiling, complementing pathology results. While it's a high-tech entry, it's stepping into a competitive space where established methods are the standard. Availability is planned for early 2026 through a clinical study.

Then there's AlloSure Lung. This product has clinical validation, for instance, showing surveillance monitoring effectively identified the onset of acute cellular rejection in the ALAMO study. However, the lung transplant market volume is inherently smaller compared to the kidney and heart transplant markets, which are CareDx's core focus areas. This means even with a validated product, the total addressable market size for this specific indication is constrained.

• AlloSure Lung data presented at the 2025 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Meeting.
• Interim ALAMO study analysis suggested AlloSure Lung may be prognostic of Chronic Lung Allograft Dysfunction (CLAD).
• The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $372 million to $376 million.

Finance: draft the projected cash burn rate for Patient and Digital Solutions for Q4 2025 by next Tuesday.