CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You need to know if CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is a commodity play or a clean-energy transition story, and the truth is, it's both. Your investment hinges on how they manage a Henry Hub natural gas price near $3.50/MMBtu while simultaneously executing a massive shift to low-carbon ammonia, a move backed by a projected 2025 capital expenditure of nearly $650 million. Geopolitical stability, US Farm Bill negotiations, and new EPA methane rules are all converging, so understanding these six macro-forces is the only way to accurately model their future cash flow and see past the current $380/metric ton urea price forecast.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

US Farm Bill negotiations in 2025 influence crop prices and thus fertilizer demand.

You need to watch the political wrangling around the 2025 Farm Bill because it directly impacts your customer's wallet, which in turn dictates their fertilizer purchases. The core issue for farmers right now is a brutal cost-price squeeze: input costs are up, but commodity prices are down sharply from their 2022 highs.

For example, corn prices are down 54%, soybeans are down 58%, and wheat is down 51% from those peaks. Total crop receipts are forecast to drop by $6.1 billion (2.5%) from 2024, settling at approximately $236.6 billion in 2025.

When farm profitability is squeezed like this, farmers buy less fertilizer or switch to lower-cost products. The recent stopgap bill that extended core farm programs through a continuing resolution (CR) only offers temporary relief, but it doesn't solve the underlying market stress. The political debate over increasing reference prices and boosting the revenue guarantee in the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program will defintely shape the financial health of the American farmer, and thus, CF Industries' sales volume in 2026.

Trade tariffs on imported nitrogen products protect domestic market share.

The US trade policy environment for nitrogen products is in flux, and the recent changes are a headwind for CF Industries. For much of 2025, trade tariffs-which were as high as 10% to 15% for most exporting countries, and up to 30% for some-helped domestic producers like CF Industries by limiting competition.

But that protection is mostly gone now. Effective November 13, 2025, the US lifted import tariffs on most nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, including urea, ammonium nitrate, and UAN solutions.

This policy reversal, after only about seven months of the tariffs being in place, means lower-cost imports will flood the market ahead of the spring 2026 planting season. This will put immediate downward pressure on domestic fertilizer pricing. The one exception is ammonia, where tariff exemptions still require a case-by-case determination by the Secretary of Commerce and the US Trade Representative.

• Tariffs lifted on: Urea, UAN, Ammonium Nitrate, DAP, MAP.
• Tariff status unclear: Ammonia (case-by-case review).
• Impact: Increased import competition, lower domestic prices.

Geopolitical stability in major natural gas exporting regions affects feedstock costs.

The cost of natural gas, which is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, is a massive political risk factor for CF Industries. It accounts for an estimated 60% to 80% of the production cost for ammonia.

While CF Industries benefits from relatively cheaper US natural gas compared to Europe, domestic gas prices are projected to rise into late 2025 and 2026 due to the rapid expansion of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export capacity. This means a higher baseline cost for your production.

Also, global political instability continues to inject volatility into the market. Conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted natural gas supplies to North African and Egyptian nitrogen operations, tightening global supply and keeping a floor under prices, despite the dip in US gas prices earlier in the year. Geopolitics is a permanent feature here.

Here is a quick look at the geopolitical cost drivers as of late 2025:

Government incentives for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) drive Blue Ammonia investment.

The US government's commitment to decarbonization through tax incentives is a major political tailwind that CF Industries is already capitalizing on. The Section 45Q tax credit, a key provision of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), provides up to $85 per metric ton of CO₂ permanently sequestered.

This incentive is the engine driving the company's Blue Ammonia (ammonia produced with CCS) strategy. CF Industries' Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana, which started its CO₂ sequestration project in July 2025, is designed to capture up to 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually.

Here's the quick math: at the current 45Q rate, this single project alone could generate approximately $170 million in annual tax savings for the company, a direct boost to net income. The project is expected to produce about 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

The political commitment extends to future projects, too. CF Industries is advancing a $4 billion low-carbon ammonia joint venture at its Blue Point Complex, which is also expected to qualify for 45Q credits. This clear, long-term policy signal from Washington allows CF Industries to invest confidently in infrastructure that will pay dividends for decades.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

The economic landscape for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a study in two-sided volatility: the input cost of natural gas and the revenue side of global fertilizer prices and US farm income. For 2025, the key takeaway is that CF's cost-advantaged position remains a massive structural buffer, even as global prices for its products show a late-year softening.

Natural gas (Henry Hub) price volatility directly impacts production margins.

CF Industries' competitive edge hinges on access to low-cost North American natural gas (the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer), specifically priced at the Henry Hub benchmark. This is the single most critical factor determining production margins. While European and Asian producers face much higher energy costs, CF benefits when the Henry Hub price stays low.

For late 2025, the forecast for the Henry Hub natural gas spot price shows a degree of stability, but still a range of risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the Henry Hub price to average $3.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the fourth quarter of 2025. However, Fitch Ratings' 2025 average assumption was slightly tighter at $3.00 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). This cost advantage is why CF remains a first-quartile cost producer globally. A one-dollar increase in Henry Hub can wipe out hundreds of millions in margin, so this number is defintely one to watch.

Global urea prices are forecast around $380/metric ton for late 2025.

The global price of urea-a key product for CF Industries-is a direct measure of the company's revenue potential. As of November 20, 2025, the price of urea was trading near $377 per metric ton (T), with Trading Economics modeling an increase to $388.60/T by the end of the quarter. This aligns closely with industry expectations, like the Fitch Ratings forecast of $370/tonne for granular urea (FOB Middle East) for the full year 2025. The price is supported by strong global demand, particularly from India, which is projected to be the largest urea importer in 2025, having secured 7.3 million metric tons through tenders by the third quarter. Still, the European market is seeing prices in the $390-$470/ton range for the second half of 2025, driven higher by EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer.

US agricultural net farm income projections affect farmer fertilizer purchasing power.

Farmer purchasing power in the United States is a key demand driver for CF Industries' domestic sales. The USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast a significant rebound in overall farm profitability for the 2025 fiscal year, which is generally good for fertilizer demand. Net farm income (NFI) is forecast to reach $179.8 billion, representing a substantial 40.7% increase from 2024. Net cash farm income is also projected to rise to $180.7 billion.

Here's the quick math on what's driving this: The primary boost comes from direct Government payments, forecast at $40.5 billion for 2025, a $30.4 billion increase over 2024, largely due to supplemental disaster assistance. What this estimate hides, however, is a projected decrease in crop receipts-the direct users of CF's products-which are forecast to decline by $6.1 billion (2.5%) to $236.6 billion due to lower receipts for corn, soybeans, and wheat. This mixed picture means that while overall farm liquidity is strong, the primary customer's cash flow from crops is actually under pressure, which could temper fertilizer purchasing.

CF's projected 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) is near $650 million, focused on growth projects.

CF Industries has accelerated its investment in strategic, low-carbon growth projects. Management's latest projection for total capital expenditures (CapEx) for the full year 2025 is approximately $925 million. This is a significant step up from the earlier $650 million estimate. This higher figure reflects the company's commitment to its decarbonization strategy, especially the Blue Point joint venture (JV) low-carbon ammonia facility.

The CapEx breakdown clearly shows the pivot toward growth:

• CapEx for the existing network is projected at approximately $575 million.
• CapEx related to the Blue Point joint venture is estimated at $300-$400 million.

This JV, where CF holds a 40% stake, is a multi-billion-dollar project expected to start production in 2029 and is critical for future revenue streams, leveraging 45Q tax credits (carbon capture and sequestration). The pivot to clean energy is real, and it's driving the capital spending. Finance: track Blue Point JV CapEx burn rate against the $925 million target monthly.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Increasing consumer demand for sustainably sourced and low-carbon food products

The shift in consumer behavior is no longer a niche trend; it's a powerful market force that directly impacts CF Industries' long-term strategy. The global carbon-neutral food market is estimated at $5 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% through 2033. This demand signal is reaching the entire supply chain, from grocery shelves back to the fertilizer plant.

For CF Industries, this translates into a clear opportunity to monetize its low-carbon initiatives. Over 70% of consumers in developed countries are now willing to pay a premium for carbon-neutral food products, and a staggering 92% of consumers consider sustainability important when choosing a brand today. This willingness to pay is what funds the transition. CF Industries' commitment to producing low-carbon ammonia, which can be used to create low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer, positions it to capture this value, moving its product from a commodity to a premium, differentiated input.

Farmer adoption of precision agriculture reduces overall fertilizer volume use

Farmers are facing a cost-price squeeze in 2025, with fertilizer costs trending higher than in 2024, which is accelerating the adoption of precision agriculture (PA) technologies. This is a critical factor for CF Industries, as PA focuses on applying inputs exactly where and when they are needed, which inherently reduces overall fertilizer volume. Precision nutrient strategies, utilizing tools like Variable Rate Technology (VRT), are projected to reduce fertilizer waste by up to 30% by 2025.

While this trend could reduce total nitrogen volume demand, it simultaneously increases demand for specialized, high-efficiency products and services, which is a better margin business. The company's focus on nutrient management and product stewardship, outlined in its corporate strategy, is a necessary response to this reality. It's a trade-off: lower volume but higher value per ton, plus a stronger alignment with environmental goals.

Here's the quick math on the market shift:

Public perception of industrial emissions and environmental stewardship is defintely rising

Public and investor scrutiny of heavy industry is at an all-time high, and the fertilizer sector is a major focus. Conventional ammonia production globally accounts for approximately 510 million metric tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually-a footprint comparable to the total annual emissions of a major economy like Brazil or Germany. This reality is reflected in CF Industries' holistic value creation score, which shows a net impact ratio of -137.0% due to negative impacts like GHG emissions, even while creating positive value in Nutrition and Jobs.

CF Industries is directly confronting this perception challenge with concrete, near-term capital projects. The commissioning of its carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project at the Donaldsonville complex is expected in the second half of 2025. This facility has the capacity to capture up to 2 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually and is anticipated to generate the first 45Q tax credits in 2025, which provides a tax incentive of $50 per metric ton of captured CO2. This is a defintely material move that shifts the narrative from polluter to decarbonization enabler.

The company's participation in the Low-Emission Ammonia Fertilizer (LEAF) Initiative, launched in November 2025 at COP30, further demonstrates its commitment to public-private collaboration on this issue.

Global population growth sustains long-term demand for increased crop yields

The fundamental driver of CF Industries' business remains the need to feed a growing world. The global population in 2025 is estimated at 8.14 billion. To meet the resulting food demand, world cereal production must rise to about 2.679 billion tons in 2025. Nitrogen fertilizer is absolutely essential to this equation, as it is estimated to increase global food production by as much as 50%.

This long-term demographic tailwind provides a stable floor for demand. The global fertilizer market is projected to grow from $199.82 billion in 2024 to $279.52 billion by 2033, representing a CAGR of 3.80% from 2025. CF Industries is positioned to meet this demand, projecting a total gross ammonia production of approximately 10 million tons in 2025. This is what makes the clean ammonia pivot so smart: it allows the company to serve the steady, high-volume food market while also accessing the high-growth clean energy market.

The core social value proposition is clear:

• Food Security: Nitrogen fertilizers increase global food production by up to 50%.
• Land Preservation: Higher yields on existing farmland minimize the need for land expansion, helping to preserve forests.
• Clean Energy: Ammonia is a key solution for decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Progress in Blue Ammonia production via Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) is a key differentiator.

You are seeing technology fundamentally redefine the nitrogen business, shifting the focus from low-cost natural gas to low-carbon production. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is leveraging Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) to create Blue Ammonia (ammonia produced from natural gas with captured $\text{CO}_2$), which is a critical technological leap. This immediately differentiates their product in an increasingly carbon-conscious global market, especially for industrial and marine fuel applications.

The core of this strategy is the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. In July 2025, the company announced the start-up of the $\text{CO}_2$ dehydration and compression facility there, a major milestone. This facility is engineered to capture and permanently sequester up to 2 million metric tons of $\text{CO}_2$ annually. This single project enables CF Industries to produce approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year, positioning them as a clean energy leader. That's a massive volume that qualifies for significant federal Section 45Q tax credits.

Here's the quick math on their low-carbon capacity build-out:

Development of more efficient nitrogen application technologies (e.g., enhanced efficiency fertilizers).

While the big headlines are about Blue Ammonia, the quieter, but equally important, technological shift is happening in how fertilizer is actually used on the farm. Enhanced efficiency fertilizers (EEFs), which include nitrogen stabilizers and slow-release products, are crucial because they reduce nitrogen loss to the environment, boosting crop yield per unit of fertilizer applied. This is where the push for 'sustainable agriculture' meets the bottom line.

CF Industries is focusing on reducing emissions at the plant level, which directly impacts the carbon intensity of all their final products, including EEFs. For example, the nitric acid plant abatement project at their Verdigris, Oklahoma, facility, completed in October 2025, is a major technological win. It's expected to cut $\text{CO}_2$-equivalent emissions by over 600,000 metric tons annually by reducing nitrous oxide ($\text{N}_2\text{O}$) emissions. That's a huge step toward cleaner production.

They are also actively working to integrate their low-carbon products into the supply chain through initiatives like the Low-Carbon Fertilizer Alliance and a collaboration with POET to pilot low-carbon ammonia fertilizer. This shows they are not just making a cleaner product, but they are also building the technology and logistics to get it into the hands of growers who need it. The market is definitely moving toward a premium for this kind of certified, efficient product.

Hydrogen electrolysis advancements lower the cost for future Green Ammonia production.

The long-term technological opportunity lies in Green Ammonia, which uses hydrogen produced via water electrolysis powered by renewable energy. This is the ultimate zero-carbon goal, but right now, the cost of hydrogen electrolysis is the bottleneck. The good news is that the technology is advancing fast, and costs are falling, though the gap with fossil-fuel-based production remains significant.

As of early 2025, the Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for green hydrogen globally still varies widely, from $4.00 to $12.00/kg, while traditional gray hydrogen (fossil-based) is in the $1.00-3.00/kg range. However, the capital costs for electrolyzers are declining. In the US Gulf Coast, hydrogen prices in January 2025 averaged USD 2.30/kg for alkaline electrolysis and USD 3.19/kg for Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis. This cost reduction is driven by:

• Alkaline electrolyzer capital costs sitting in the €242-388/kW range in 2025.
• The Green Ammonia Market is projected to reach $6.5 Billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 72% from 2025-2031, signaling massive future demand.

CF Industries' Blue Ammonia projects are essentially a technological bridge, using CCS to reduce carbon intensity now while waiting for the economics of Green Hydrogen to make Green Ammonia competitive on a large scale. The continuous advancements in electrolyzer efficiency-especially Solid Oxide Electrolyzers (SOECs) and PEM systems-are defintely the technological factor to watch.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed methane emission rules for industrial sources

The legal landscape around methane emissions is shifting, and while the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has primarily targeted the oil and natural gas sector (CF Industries' primary feedstock supplier), the indirect impact is defintely a risk for CF Industries. The EPA's final methane rules for new and existing oil and gas facilities (NSPS OOOOb/EG OOOOc), which were finalized in 2024, have seen significant regulatory uncertainty in 2025. For example, in July 2025, the EPA announced a delay in compliance deadlines for certain provisions of the rule, and the Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) was effectively prohibited by Congress from being collected until 2034.

This regulatory volatility in the energy sector directly impacts CF Industries' cost of natural gas, which is its largest operating expense. The company is mitigating this legal and supply chain risk proactively by securing certified low-methane natural gas. In 2024, CF Industries doubled its purchase to 4.4 billion cubic feet of certified natural gas, which has a 90% lower methane emissions intensity than the industry average.

State-level regulations on agricultural nitrogen runoff (e.g., Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force)

The push to reduce agricultural nitrogen runoff, largely driven by the EPA-led Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force, remains a critical long-term legal pressure point. The Task Force set an Interim Target of a 20% reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus loading by the end of 2025, with a final goal of a 45% reduction by 2035.

While the Task Force relies on voluntary, incentive-based state Nutrient Reduction Strategies across the 12 member states in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin, the lack of progress on the five-year rolling average for nutrient loads increases the risk of future mandatory regulations. If the 2035 goal is missed, states could be forced to implement strict, prescriptive rules on fertilizer application rates or timing. That would directly suppress demand for CF Industries' nitrogen products, which is a major concern. The latest data suggests that while states have met the 20% nitrogen reduction goal based on 2021 data, the overall five-year average is less successful, and phosphorus loads have actually increased.

International trade agreements and sanctions affect global fertilizer market access

The global fertilizer market is highly susceptible to geopolitical and trade policy shifts, which creates both a risk and an opportunity for a North American producer like CF Industries. The primary legal risks in 2025 center on two major global competitors: Russia and China.

The threat of new US sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports, particularly urea and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), continues to hover over the market. Russia is a dominant global exporter, and any policy shift that disrupts its supply would cause immediate price spikes. For CF Industries, a US-based producer with a low-cost natural gas advantage, this uncertainty acts as a tailwind, allowing it to capture higher margins on its exports.

Also, China's recurrent policy of restricting fertilizer exports, especially urea and phosphate, to ensure domestic supply and control prices for its own farmers, has been a major factor in the tight global supply in 2025. This unpredictable, legally-enforced restriction tightens the global nitrogen market, which directly benefits CF Industries' pricing power.

Tax credits, like the 45Q for carbon sequestration, are critical to CCS project viability

The federal 45Q tax credit is the single most important legal and fiscal incentive underpinning CF Industries' long-term decarbonization strategy. This credit provides a significant tax benefit for each metric ton of $\text{CO}_2$ permanently stored underground.

CF Industries has already begun monetizing this. In July 2025, the company started up its $\text{CO}_2$ dehydration and compression facility at its Donaldsonville complex, which is expected to enable the permanent underground storage of up to 2 million metric tons of $\text{CO}_2$ per year. This milestone immediately positioned the company to begin generating 45Q tax credits in the second half of 2025, as confirmed in its Q3 2025 earnings report.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enhanced the 45Q credit value to up to $85 per metric ton for securely sequestered $\text{CO}_2$. Here's the quick math: monetizing the full capacity of the Donaldsonville project alone could eventually generate a substantial annual tax benefit. For context, analysts estimate that a future project sequestering 2.5 million tons of $\text{CO}_2$ annually could generate approximately $213 million in annual tax savings by 2030, which is a significant fiscal windfall.

This tax credit is the financial engine behind CF Industries' capital-intensive clean energy projects, including the planned $4.0 billion Blue Point low-carbon ammonia facility. The viability of these projects is defintely tied to the durability of this government incentive.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure to reduce $\text{CO}_2$ emissions from large-scale industrial facilities.

The biggest environmental factor-and opportunity-for CF Industries in 2025 is the intense regulatory and investor pressure to decarbonize industrial operations. Nitrogen fertilizer production is energy-intensive, and your Scope 1 emissions, those directly from manufacturing, are significant. CF Industries has an ambitious, but defintely necessary, goal: to reduce total $\text{CO}_2$ equivalent emissions by 25% per ton of product by 2030, using a 2015 baseline, and to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The company is making a major capital bet on Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) to hit these targets. The landmark CCS agreement with ExxonMobil at the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana is expected to start operations in 2025. This single project is designed to capture and permanently store up to 2.5 million metric tons of $\text{CO}_2$ annually, a move that will reduce CF Industries' total Scope 1 emissions by more than 10%.

This isn't just an environmental cost; it's a revenue opportunity, thanks to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The Donaldsonville project is expected to qualify for the Section 45Q tax credit, which is valued at $85 per metric ton of permanently sequestered $\text{CO}_2$. This tax credit provides a significant, long-term financial tailwind for the company's clean energy strategy.

• 2030 $\text{CO}_2$ Goal: 25% reduction per ton of product.
• Donaldsonville CCS Capture: Up to 2.5 million tons of $\text{CO}_2$ annually.
• Section 45Q Tax Credit Value: $85/\text{ton}$ of sequestered $\text{CO}_2$.

Increased scrutiny on water usage and discharge in key operating regions.

Water stewardship is a growing area of risk, especially in regions facing baseline water stress. Fertilizer production requires large volumes of water for cooling and steam generation. While CF Industries states it accounts for only about 0.015% of total U.S. water use, the sheer volume of discharge attracts regulatory attention.

The company has faced direct regulatory action. A 2025 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) settlement regarding the Plant City, Florida, facility required significant changes to eliminate the release of hazardous wastewaters. This action resulted in a net reduction of approximately 4,500 tons per year of ammonia effluent being discharged to the phosphogypsum stack system.

Here's a snapshot of the operational water footprint (latest available metrics):

What this table hides is the local impact. The Donaldsonville Complex, the world's largest fertilizer plant, released over 1.9 million pounds of toxic pollutants to surface waters in 2022, including ammonia and ammonia compounds, according to the EPA's Toxic Release Inventory.

Focus on minimizing the environmental impact of nitrogen fertilizer on waterways.

The end-use of nitrogen fertilizer-specifically the runoff of excess nitrogen into waterways-is a major environmental challenge for the entire agricultural value chain. This runoff contributes to eutrophication and the growth of the Gulf of Mexico's hypoxic zone (dead zone).

Since CF Industries does not sell directly to farmers, their strategy is product stewardship and collaboration. The company is a key supporter of The Fertilizer Institute's 4R Nutrient Stewardship Program (Right Source, Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place), which promotes science-based practices to maximize nutrient use efficiency and minimize environmental impact.

The move toward 'low-carbon ammonia' is a dual-purpose strategy. By partnering with companies like CHS Inc. to produce and distribute low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer, CF Industries helps farmers and end-users (like Consumer Packaged Goods companies and ethanol producers) reduce the overall carbon footprint of their crops. This links the product's environmental benefit directly to the customer's sustainability goals.

Climate change impacts on global crop yields influence fertilizer demand patterns.

Climate change acts as a volatile demand driver. Extreme weather events and water scarcity-both increasing due to climate change-can stress crop yields, which in turn drives the need for essential inputs like nitrogen fertilizer to maintain productivity. However, this demand is countered by the financial stress on farmers.

The U.S. agricultural sector is facing a severe 'cost-price squeeze' in 2025. Total farm production expenses are projected to reach a record $467 billion, an increase of nearly $12 billion from 2024. While fertilizer is a non-discretionary input, farmers' ability to pay premium prices is constrained by these high costs and soft commodity prices.

This creates a complex outlook for CF Industries' core business:

• Demand Driver: Continued strong global nitrogen demand is anticipated through 2026 due to the essential nature of the nutrient and low global inventories.
• Financial Headwind: Fertilizer prices, while down from 2022 peaks, saw increases of 15% to 30% between October 2024 and October 2025 for nitrogen and phosphate.
• Risk: Increased farm debt, forecast to reach a record $386.4 billion in 2025, limits farmers' willingness to buy high-priced inputs, potentially eroding CF Industries' margins.