Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Churchill Downs Incorporated's growth blueprint, and honestly, it's a masterclass in balancing the known with the ambitious, especially with the near-term focus on Historical Horse Racing (HHR) and the TwinSpires platform. As someone who's mapped these strategies for years, I see a clear path: they are pushing hard to capture an extra 2% of US online handle right now, while simultaneously scouting new states for HHR expansion and even eyeing FinTech plays. This matrix lays out exactly where Churchill Downs Incorporated is placing its chips-from optimizing existing casino wins to potentially buying a regional sports network-and you need to see the specific actions tied to each risk before you make your next move.

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Increase TwinSpires promotional spend to capture 2% more US online handle.

For the second quarter of 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated reported that Wagering Services revenue rose 5.3% to $168.4m, with TwinSpires Horse Racing benefiting from increased Derby Week engagement. The company paid a dividend of $0.409 per share in January 2025, and approved a dividend of $0.438 per share in the third quarter of 2025.

Offer bundled packages for Kentucky Derby tickets and on-site casino credits.

The 151st Kentucky Derby in Q2 2025 achieved an average viewership of 17.7 million, up 6% from the prior year, peaking near 21.8 million, up 8%. Churchill Downs Racetrack has seating for approximately 60,000 guests.

Optimize HHR machine mix at existing venues to lift average daily win per unit.

The Live and Historical Racing segment revenue surged 21% to $305.7 million in Q3 2025, up from $252.4 million in the prior year. In Q1 2025, Kentucky HRM locations delivered an $8.9 million revenue increase. The company opened Roseshire Gaming Parlor in September 2025 with 175 machines.

Drive higher visitation frequency at established casinos like Rivers Casino Des Plaines.

Churchill Downs Incorporated owns 61% of Rivers Casino Des Plaines. The property features 983 slot machines and 58 table games. In Q3 2025, the Gaming segment revenue was $265.5 million, a decrease of $4.8 million year-over-year, partially offset by increases in other properties.

Use loyalty programs to cross-sell between live racing and online wagering customers.

Churchill Downs Incorporated returned $250.4 million to shareholders through Q2 2025 repurchases. The company repurchased 798,250 shares for $89.4 million in Q1 2025.

Here's the quick math on segment revenue performance for the first three quarters of 2025:

The company reported record Adjusted EBITDA of $245.1 million in Q1 2025 and $450.9 million in Q2 2025.

Key operational metrics supporting penetration efforts include:

• Q3 2025 Live and Historical Racing Adjusted EBITDA: $116.4 million.
• Q3 2025 revenue increase from Virginia HHR venues: $30.1 million.
• Q3 2025 revenue increase from Kentucky HHR venues: $20.9 million.
• Q1 2025 net bank leverage: 4.0x.
• Approved new share repurchase program in March 2025 for up to $500 million.

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Churchill Downs Incorporated is taking its established business models-especially Historical Horse Racing (HHR) and its racetrack/casino operations-and pushing them into new geographic territories. This is classic Market Development, and the numbers show where the action is right now.

Expand Historical Horse Racing (HHR) model into new states legalizing the format.

Churchill Downs Incorporated is aggressively growing its HHR footprint, particularly within Kentucky and Virginia. In Kentucky, the company opened its seventh HHR venue, Owensboro Racing & Gaming, in the first three months of 2025. This facility features 600 historical racing machines (HRMs) and is projected to generate $125m annually for the regional economy. Furthermore, Churchill Downs Incorporated is developing its eighth HHR venue in Calvert City, Kentucky, slated to open in early 2026 with up to 240 HRMs, an investment expected to cost between $40 million to $50 million, and forecast to deliver $45 million in annual regional economic impact.

The Virginia market continues to be a strong driver. As of October 2024, the number of HHR machines in operation in Virginia had grown to 4,450, up from 2,300 machines when Churchill Downs Incorporated closed on the purchase of Colonial Downs in December 2022. The company anticipates reaching the 5,000 machine maximum allowed under current Virginia law by the end of 2025. The expansion at Rosie's Richmond, adding 450 incremental HRMs, was completed on August 6, 2025, and the new Roseshire Gaming Parlor in Henrico County, Virginia, opened on September 29, 2025, with 175 HRMs.

Acquire regional casino operators in underserved US markets for immediate scale.

A key move into a new market was the completion of the acquisition of a majority stake in the Casino Salem project in Salem, New Hampshire, on August 27, 2025, for $180 million. This transaction gives Churchill Downs Incorporated the right to develop a charitable gaming, entertainment, and dining destination featuring HRMs. The initial phase, which opened on July 9th, featured approximately 100 HRMs and 13 live table games. This temporary facility contributed $2.3 million in revenue during the third quarter of 2025.

Launch TwinSpires in newly regulated US sports betting markets like North Carolina.

Churchill Downs Incorporated made the strategic decision to transition its TwinSpires platform to focus exclusively on horse racing, winding down its online sports betting operations as of early 2022. The company noted that TwinSpires' online horse betting business held around 50% of the market share in 2022. While the company has a B2B horse racing deal with FanDuel Sportsbook starting in January 2023, there are no reported 2025 figures for a TwinSpires sports betting launch in North Carolina.

Introduce the Churchill Downs brand experience to new US metropolitan areas.

The Casino Salem acquisition places a Churchill Downs Incorporated asset near Boston, approximately 30 minutes from downtown, targeting patrons from the growing New England market. Separately, at the flagship Churchill Downs Racetrack, the company is undertaking a project to transform 10,000 bleacher seats into 8,500 premium stadium and trackside box seats with enhanced amenities, scheduled for completion for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Here's a look at the financial impact from the Live and Historical Racing segment, which directly supports these Market Development efforts:

Key operational metrics supporting the expansion strategy include:

• CDI's seventh HHR venue in Owensboro is projected to generate $125m annually for the regional economy.
• The Calvert City HHR facility is expected to deliver $45 million in annual regional economic impact.
• The Calvert City facility is planned to have up to 240 historical racing machines.
• The Casino Salem initial phase opened with 13 live table games.
• The company repurchased 515,527 shares of common stock in Q3 2025 at a total cost of $53.5 million.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) can grow by creating new offerings for its existing customer base, which is the essence of Product Development in the Ansoff Matrix. This means taking what you know-horse racing, wagering, and casino operations-and building better, newer things for the people who already use your services.

For the TwinSpires platform, which is part of the Wagering Services & Solutions segment, the focus is on digital product enhancement. In the second quarter of 2025, the Wagering Services revenue reached $168.4 million, showing a 5.3% year-over-year increase. However, the TwinSpires Horse Racing portion specifically saw a $2.4 million decrease in Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025, attributed to increased legal expenses and marketing spend around Derby Week. This suggests that new proprietary game development would need to be carefully managed against rising operational costs in the digital space.

When considering on-site experiences, the investment in physical infrastructure directly supports new, premium product rollouts. Churchill Downs Incorporated initially announced a multi-year capital project series at the Racetrack budgeted for approximately $920 million through 2028, though some projects were paused in Q1 2025 due to the economic environment. The planned Skye Terrace Renovation and Expansion Project alone was budgeted between $455 million and $465 million, aiming to increase seating from 11,500 to 13,300 seats. The Conservatory Project was budgeted between $320 million and $330 million. Separately, a new structure called Victory Run was planned with an investment between $280 million and $300 million, with construction starting after the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

The rollout of a premium, high-limit gaming lounge concept ties into the existing Gaming segment, which posted revenue of $266.3 million in Q2 2025, despite a 3% revenue decline for the segment overall. A concrete product expansion move was the agreement to acquire 90% of Casino Salem in New Hampshire for $180 million, which bolsters the physical gaming footprint. Furthermore, the Live and Historical Racing segment expanded its physical product with the February 2025 opening of Owensboro Racing and Gaming in Western Kentucky, which features 600 historical racing machines.

Introducing a new tier of luxury hospitality at the Churchill Downs racetrack itself is supported by the massive capital outlay planned for Derby enhancements. The 151st Kentucky Derby in 2025 saw all-time record all-sources handle for the race day program and Derby Week. Viewership peaked at 21.8 million people, an 8% increase year-over-year, showing a large, engaged audience ready for premium offerings. The company also announced new projects for the Finish Line Suites and The Mansion ahead of the 152nd Derby.

Creating a unique pari-mutuel wagering product for younger demographics must align with the overall wagering engagement seen during peak events. The Q2 2025 results showed that the Churchill Downs Racetrack segment revenue increased by $4.9 million, partially due to increased wagering. The company repurchased $250.4 million of capital to shareholders in Q2 2025, and the Board approved a new $500 million share repurchase program in July 2025, indicating a focus on shareholder returns alongside strategic investment.

Here is a summary of the financial context for these product development areas:

The company is actively managing its capital structure, ending Q2 2025 with net bank leverage of 4.2x. The Board approved a 7% dividend increase in Q3 2025, payable in January 2026, showing confidence in sustained earnings power to support new product investment.

• The Live and Historical Racing segment grew revenue by 21% in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year quarter.
• The Live and Historical Racing segment grew Adjusted EBITDA by 25% in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year quarter.
• The company expects $50 million to $60 million in lower cash tax payments in both 2025 and 2026 from new federal tax provisions.
• The company reported $166 million or $2.34 per share of free cash flow in the third quarter of 2025.

Finance: finalize 2026 project capital estimate range by next Tuesday.

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at the next frontier for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), moving beyond the core of racing and existing gaming properties. This is the diversification quadrant, where the company uses its existing expertise-payments, hospitality, and content distribution-to enter entirely new markets. Here's the quick math on where Churchill Downs Incorporated stands right now, which sets the stage for these moves. As of the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported net bank leverage of 4.2x and maintained cash and cash equivalents of $182.4 million. For the last twelve months ending September 30, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated posted revenue of $2.88 billion.

Consider the scale of potential moves based on recent industry transactions and market sizing:

Acquire a controlling stake in a major US regional sports network for content distribution.

• The portfolio of 21 Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) acquired by Sinclair in a comparable transaction generated $3.8 billion in revenue in 2018.
• This RSN portfolio held local rights to 42 professional teams, including 14 Major League Baseball teams, 16 NBA teams, and 12 NHL teams.
• The total enterprise value ascribed to those 21 RSNs was $10.6 billion.

Enter the non-gaming entertainment sector by developing large-scale music venues near casinos.

• Churchill Downs Incorporated's recent acquisition of a majority stake in Casino Salem was for $180 million.
• The company has between $250 million and $290 million worth of capital projects in the pipeline, excluding a paused $900 million renovation project at Churchill Downs.

Launch a financial technology (FinTech) service leveraging TwinSpires payment infrastructure.

• The global payment processing solutions market size is estimated at $173.38 billion in vendor revenue for 2025.
• North America accounted for about 31.70% of the global market share in 2025.
• The company's Wagering Services and Solutions segment generated $115.8 million in revenue in Q1 2025.

Invest in a minority interest in a US-based eSports betting platform.

• The company exited the sports betting business in Kentucky on February 10, 2025, citing low profitability from retail operations.
• Churchill Downs Incorporated's Q1 2025 net revenue was a record $642.6 million.

Develop a chain of branded, upscale sports bars separate from existing casino properties.

• Churchill Downs Incorporated's Q2 2025 net revenue reached $934.4 million.
• The company announced a new $500 million share repurchase program.