CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s (CTO) playbook for expansion, and honestly, the near-term picture is bright, built on solid execution. Right now, they're capitalizing on those fantastic cash rent spreads, which hit 21.7% through Q3 2025, while pushing to get occupancy past the 93.9% leased level. But the real story is how they plan to use that momentum-whether it's aggressively leasing existing assets, planting flags in new Sun Belt markets with their $100-200 million 2025 budget, redeveloping land for specialized uses, or even looking at industrial properties for diversification. Below, I break down the four clear paths CTO is laying out to drive that same-property NOI growth above their 1.0% 2025 guidance, so you can see exactly where the next big moves are coming from.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) plans to maximize revenue from its existing portfolio of retail-based properties, which is the core of Market Penetration. This strategy relies on aggressive leasing and active asset management to squeeze more income out of what you already own.

The first action is to aggressively lease up vacant space to exceed the 93.9% Q2 2025 leased occupancy. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, CTO reported that its portfolio was 94.2% leased, showing clear progress in this area. This is a step up from the 93.9% leased occupancy reported at the end of Q2 2025. The total portfolio size as of Q3 2025 was approximately 5.1 million square feet.

Next, you need to convert the signed-not-open (SNO) pipeline into recognized revenue quickly. As of the third quarter of 2025, the SNO pipeline stands at $5.5 million in annualized cash base rent, representing 5.3% of in-place cash base rent at quarter end. Management anticipates that approximately 76% of this SNO pipeline ABR will be recognized in 2026, with 100% recognized in 2027. This pipeline is a $5.5 million commitment, up from the $4.6 million reported at the end of Q2 2025.

You must continue to capture the high comparable cash rent spreads. For the first nine months of 2025, CTO signed comparable leases totaling 424,344 square feet at a weighted average base rent spread of 21.7%. This is based on an average cash base rent of $24.16 per square foot compared to a previous average of $19.85 per square foot for those spaces. To be fair, the Q3 2025 quarter itself showed a lower comparable growth of 10.3% on 124,915 square feet of comparable leases.

Repositioning underperforming anchor spaces is a key lever here. CTO is actively working to replace former tenants, like the theater conversion, with concepts designed to drive more foot traffic. Of the ten vacant anchor boxes identified, six have now been leased as of the Q3 2025 update. The company remains on target to achieve cash leasing spreads of 40% to 60% across these 10 anchor spaces.

Active asset management is driving same-property NOI growth above the 1.0% 2025 guidance. For the third quarter of 2025, same-property NOI totaled $18.6 million, which is an increase of 2.3% compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This 2.3% growth for the quarter is above the full-year 2025 guidance of approximately 1.0% same-property NOI growth. This growth was supported by leasing activity at key properties, including the Beaver Creek property where a former theater was replaced by OneLife Fitness.

Here are the key leasing and occupancy metrics driving this market penetration:

• Q3 2025 Leased Occupancy: 94.2%
• Q2 2025 Leased Occupancy: 93.9%
• Total Leasing Year-to-Date (9 months 2025): 482,000 square feet
• Comparable Leasing Spread (9 months 2025): 21.7%
• Targeted Anchor Spread: 40% to 60%

The financial results tied to this operational push show momentum:

You've also seen a significant increase in the SNO pipeline value, which is a direct result of successful leasing efforts.

• SNO Pipeline (Q3 2025): $5.5 million in annual cash base rent
• SNO Pipeline (Q2 2025): $4.6 million in annual cash base rent
• Percentage of In-Place Cash ABR (Q3 2025): 5.3%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) plans to take its established retail-focused model and plant it in new soil. This is Market Development, moving what you do well into new territories. It's about geographic extension, not reinventing the shopping center.

The capital allocation for this push is clearly defined for 2025. CTO has provided guidance for investments, including structured investments, to fall between $100.0 million and $200.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2025. The target initial cash yield on these new assets is set between 8.0% and 8.5%. This budget is supported by a solid liquidity position; as of March 31, 2025, CTO reported liquidity of $138.4 million.

The core of this strategy is seeking out higher-income demographics to support premium retail tenancy. The goal is to target new markets where the average household income (AHI) surpasses the current portfolio's benchmark. As of late 2024, the AHI in CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) markets was $141K, though more recent data suggests the average is now $142K. So, you're looking for markets where the AHI is definitively greater than $141,000.

While the stated goal is new states like Arizona or Tennessee, remember that CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) is already heavily concentrated in high-growth Sun Belt areas. As of Q2 2025, 83% of annualized base rent (ABR) comes from Georgia, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. The strategy is to deploy a portion of that $100-200 million budget to establish a presence in a new ULI Top 30 market. This is smart because, based on 2024 figures, 95% of CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)'s rent already comes from cities ranked in the Urban Land Institute's top 30 markets for real estate prospects.

The expansion isn't just about brand-new states; it involves systematic growth into adjacent secondary markets within the current footprint. For instance, the August 2024 acquisition of a three-property portfolio for $137.5 million expanded the geographic footprint into Charlotte, North Carolina, and Tampa, Florida, strengthening the presence in Orlando, Florida, all of which are adjacent to or within the existing core states. This shows they are layering new markets next to established ones.

The efficiency of this expansion hinges on the existing operational backbone. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) uses its property management platform to scale operations across new geographic clusters. By the first quarter of 2025, the income property portfolio consisted of 24 properties spanning 5.2 million square feet. Successfully integrating recent acquisitions, like the $79.8 million Ashley Park acquisition in Atlanta in Q1 2025, demonstrates the platform's ability to absorb new assets efficiently.

Here's a look at the current operational scale supporting this market development:

The Market Development strategy relies on several key operational advantages:

• Deploying $100 million to $200 million in new capital for acquisitions in 2025.
• Targeting new markets with AHI above the current $141,000 average.
• Establishing presence in new ULI Top 30 markets for demographic alignment.
• Systematically adding to the portfolio in adjacent markets like Tampa and Charlotte.
• Leveraging a platform managing over 5.2 million square feet across 24 properties.

Finance: draft the pro-forma balance sheet impact of a $150 million acquisition at an 8.25% yield by Friday.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

Develop the 10 acres of raw land adjacent to The Collection for specialized medical office or experiential retail.

Convert underutilized office components within mixed-use properties to higher-demand residential or service-based retail.

Introduce a ground-lease development program for high-credit, single-tenant users in existing power center locations.

Invest in technology upgrades across the portfolio to offer smart-building features, justifying higher rents.

Repurpose older retail boxes for last-mile logistics facilities in dense, existing retail markets.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is actively enhancing its product through leasing momentum and asset repositioning, which serves as the tangible evidence for these development strategies across its portfolio of 5.227 million square feet as of Q3 2025.

The current leasing pipeline points to future revenue enhancement. The signed-not-open (SNO) pipeline as of October 28, 2025, represents $5.5 million in annual cash base rent, which is 5.3% of the in-place cash rent at quarter end. This pipeline is heavily weighted toward 2026, with 76% set for realization that year.

The success in capturing higher rents on renewed and new leases demonstrates product value realization:

• Nine months ended September 30, 2025 comparable cash base rent growth was 21.7%.
• The average cash base rent for these comparable leases was $24.16 per square foot compared to a previous average of $19.85 per square foot.
• Comparable leasing spread for Q1 2025 reached 37.2%.
• Comparable leasing spread for Q2 2025 was 21.6%.
• Q3 2025 saw a 10.3% comparable growth, with an average cash base rent of $22.24 per square foot.

The repositioning of former anchor tenants is a key component of product redevelopment. Out of ten vacant anchor boxes, six have been leased, and management is in active discussions for the remaining four.

The expected financial uplift from these anchor re-leasing efforts is substantial, with management projecting cash leasing spreads in the range of 40% to 60% on these anchor spaces. This activity contributes to the overall portfolio performance, evidenced by the Q3 2025 Same-Property Net Operating Income (NOI) of $18.6 million, an increase of 2.3% year-over-year.

Specific leasing activity at mixed-use centers reflects the strategy of introducing higher-demand uses, such as the recent execution at the Shops at Legacy:

The company's overall enterprise value stood at $1.3 billion as of June 30, 2025. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. reaffirmed its full-year 2025 Core Funds From Operations (FFO) guidance to be between $1.84 to $1.87 per diluted share.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how CTO Realty Growth, Inc. could expand beyond its current core focus. Honestly, the company has already made a significant move away from a fully diversified portfolio by concentrating on high-growth retail in the Sun Belt.

The current portfolio concentration shows that 83% of Annual Base Rent (ABR) is derived from properties in Georgia, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, which are all Southeast/Southwest concentration markets. Any move into industrial or logistics properties in a new, high-growth region outside this area would represent a true market development/diversification step.

Regarding specialized property types, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. currently has a mixed-use exposure, which is a form of internal diversification. As of Q2 2025, 69% of ABR came from retail tenants, 27% from mixed-use tenants, and 4% from office tenants. Investing in data centers or life science facilities in a new metro area would be a significant product diversification, moving into entirely new property sectors not currently represented by these percentages.

Leveraging the Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) relationship is an existing diversification mechanism, as PINE focuses on single-tenant net lease assets, which is different from CTO's multi-tenant retail focus. As of March 31, 2025, CTO owned a 15.1% stake in PINE, valued at $39.5 million. The company actively increased this exposure in July 2025, purchasing shares for a total of $990,360 across three transactions. Jointly acquiring net lease assets in new geographies would build on this existing structure, using the management agreement that CTO provides to PINE.

Developing multi-family residential properties on excess land in current markets would be a product development play within existing markets. While CTO Realty Growth, Inc. has land development opportunities within its structured investments, specific 2025 financial targets for a dedicated multi-family joint venture are not yet public. The company is focused on value-add acquisitions and repositioning, such as achieving 40% to 60% rent spreads on re-leased anchor spaces.

Targeting value-add acquisitions in the Northeast or Midwest, shifting from retail to specialized commercial property, would require significant capital deployment outside the current focus. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. has stated investment guidance for 2025 of $100-200 million with target initial cash yields of 8.00-8.50%. The company maintains strong liquidity of $170.3 million as of September 30, 2025, which would fund such a shift. The current leverage ratio, with Net Debt to Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA at 6.7x as of September 30, 2025, sets the financial context for any new, large-scale geographic or property type expansion.

Here is a look at the current portfolio composition and the PINE investment as of recent 2025 filings:

The potential for growth through repositioning existing assets is clear, which is a form of internal product enhancement:

• Comparable lease rent spread for nine months ended September 30, 2025: 21.7%.
• Projected rent spread on re-leased anchor spaces: 40% to 60%.
• Signed-Not-Open (SNO) pipeline value as of October 28, 2025: $5.5 million in annualized cash rent.
• SNO pipeline as a percentage of in-place cash rent: 5.3%.

To execute on diversification into new property types or geographies, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. would need to allocate capital from its investment pipeline, which targets $100-200 million for 2025. This capital allocation decision is key to moving beyond the current retail concentration.