Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking for the clearest path through Ecopetrol S.A.'s 2025 growth blueprint, and honestly, it boils down to a smart, two-pronged attack that balances today's needs with tomorrow's reality. As someone who's mapped out energy strategies for years, I can tell you this plan aggressively defends the core-pouring 76% of the budget, or 20.3 trillion pesos, into maximizing domestic oil and gas output and hitting production targets near 745,000 boed-while simultaneously funding a serious energy transition, dedicating 6.5 trillion pesos to hitting 900 MW in self-generation and low-carbon hydrogen. This Ansoff Matrix breaks down exactly how Ecopetrol S.A. plans to grow by digging deeper in existing markets, expanding internationally into places like the US Permian, developing new green products, and even finding new revenue streams through non-energy infrastructure; read on to see the precise actions driving each quadrant, including their defintely ambitious CCUS studies.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) focusing purely on Market Penetration-that means selling more of what you already make to the customers you already serve, primarily the domestic Colombian market. This strategy relies heavily on operational excellence and maximizing output from existing assets.

The 2025 investment plan shows a clear commitment to sustaining core operations. Approximately 20.3 trillion pesos is earmarked for this, which represents 76% of the total approved annual budget. This capital deployment is designed to keep the current business engine running at peak capacity.

A major focus for this penetration strategy is cost control. Ecopetrol has set efficiency targets for 2025 that are expected to exceed 4 trillion pesos. The goal here is to capture savings across operational management and investment projects to improve key cost indicators.

The operational targets underpinning this market focus are quite specific, aiming to maximize output for domestic supply.

To hit that production goal, Ecopetrol S.A. is drilling development wells right where they operate. The plan is to drill between 455 and 465 development wells in total for 2025, with about 79% of those operations scheduled for execution within Colombia. This is all about extracting more from known reservoirs.

Keeping the domestic supply chain robust is critical for market penetration. The plan mandates that the refinery load stays high, targeting between 415,000 and 420,000 bpd. This throughput supports the commitment to meet local demand.

The expected outcomes tied to this market penetration effort include:

• Hitting the production target of 740,000-745,000 boed.
• Achieving efficiency savings exceeding 4 trillion pesos.
• Allocating 20.3 trillion pesos, or 76% of the budget, to sustain core production.
• Drilling the majority of the 455-465 development wells in Colombia.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)'s push into new geographies and markets, which is the core of Market Development in the Ansoff Matrix. This isn't about new products; it's about taking what you have-hydrocarbons and transmission expertise-and selling/developing it outside your established core Colombian base. Here are the hard numbers guiding this strategy for 2025.

The expansion into the US Permian Basin is a clear move to secure production growth in a highly productive, established international market. Ecopetrol plans to drill approximately 91 development wells across the Midland and Delaware sub-basins as part of its 2025 investment plan with Occidental Petroleum, requiring an investment exceeding $880 million for Ecopetrol Permian. This activity is set to yield an average annual production of about 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) net to Ecopetrol Permian. This commitment translates to 21% of the total planned development wells for 2025 being executed in the United States, with the remaining 79% in Colombia.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is also advancing exploration projects in new international basins. The 2025 exploration focus includes plans to drill 10 wells primarily in the Llanos area and offshore Caribbean of Colombia. Furthermore, Ecopetrol and partners are advancing the development of the Gato Do Mato field in Brazil, with significant resources intended for allocation in 2025. Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) confirms its stake in strategic basins in Mexico as well.

Leveraging ISA's existing electric transmission network is a major component of this strategy, utilizing established infrastructure across several key South American markets. ISA holds leading positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia. For instance, ISA is the largest transmission company in Brazil, supplying about 95 percent of power transmission in the state of São Paulo as of 2020.

To support regional energy needs, Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is increasing gas investments specifically to develop offshore Caribbean gas, targeting regional export potential. The planned investment for these gas projects in 2025 is firmly set between 3.1 and 3.3 trillion pesos. This capital is aimed at contributing to a production of approximately 123,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) from these Caribbean resources.

Maintaining market access and volume is critical for the midstream segment. Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is focused on securing new international transportation contracts to keep volumes steady. The target for transported volumes in 2025 is set within the range of 1,130,000 and 1,170,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Here's a quick look at the key quantitative targets for Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)'s Market Development focus areas in the 2025 plan:

The international exploration push involves specific well commitments in new areas, which you can track against the overall E&P budget allocation. The 2025 budget for Exploration & Production is approximately 17.2 trillion pesos.

• Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) plans 10 exploration wells in 2025.
• Exploration focus includes the Gato Do Mato field in Brazil.
• ISA operates transmission infrastructure in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia.
• The company maintains exploration operations in Mexico.

Finance: review the FX impact on the $885 million Permian investment versus the 3.1 to 3.3 trillion pesos gas spend by end of Q1 2025.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is developing entirely new offerings, which in this context means new low-carbon energy products and services, moving beyond just traditional crude oil and gas extraction.

The financial commitment to this product development is clear in the 2025 budget. Ecopetrol S.A. has allocated 6.5 trillion pesos for energy transition projects, which represents 24% of the total approved investment budget, set between 24 trillion pesos and 28 trillion pesos for the year. This capital is aimed at creating the next generation of Ecopetrol S.A.'s product portfolio.

A major focus here is on developing self-generated, clean power capacity. Ecopetrol S.A. has a specific near-term goal to achieve 900 MW of renewable self-generation capacity by the end of 2025. This ties directly into developing new energy products for internal use and potentially for the grid. To put that in perspective, a recent agreement to acquire a portfolio could bring in up to 1.3 GW (1,300 MW) of solar (614 MW) and wind (750 MW) projects, which would significantly surpass that 900 MW target if completed.

The refining segment is also a key area for new product creation, specifically sustainable fuels. The refining segment itself is budgeted to receive approximately 1.6 trillion pesos in 2025 to support operational reliability, reduce product imports, and develop these renewable fuel projects. This includes the quality baseline project at the Barrancabermeja refinery, a US$1.2bn initiative targeting the production of gasoline with sulfur content of less than 10 parts per million, clean hydrogen, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2030. Ecopetrol S.A. is already testing the waters, having begun test production of 20,000 barrels of SAF at the Cartagena refinery in October 2024. Furthermore, there are plans to invest between $500 million and $700 million to build a dedicated SAF plant at Barrancabermeja.

Developing low-carbon hydrogen is another core new product line. The overall plan seeks to generate over 50,000 tons of low-carbon hydrogen by 2025. Currently, Ecopetrol S.A. produces around 130,000 tonnes per year of primarily grey hydrogen. A specific development is the new green hydrogen plant at the Cartagena Refinery, valued at US$28.5 million, which will feature a 5-MW electrolyzer and is expected to produce 800 tonnes of hydrogen annually starting in 2026.

Finally, Ecopetrol S.A. is studying a new service offering in the decarbonization space through Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS). The company is advancing pilot projects in this area. Specifically, Ecopetrol S.A. selected Honeywell technology to develop a pre-feed engineering study for a demonstration unit designed to capture 30 tpd of CO2 from Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) flue gas. This study is intended to inform the deployment of commercial-scale units, effectively creating a new decarbonization service offering defintely.

Here's a quick look at the key targets driving this Product Development strategy for 2025:

The investment in these new products is underpinned by several specific initiatives:

• Allocate 6.5 trillion pesos to energy transition projects in 2025.
• Achieve 900 MW of renewable self-generation capacity by the end of 2025.
• Invest US$1.2bn in refinery upgrades for clean fuels like SAF, with production targeted by 2030.
• Advance low-carbon hydrogen production, aiming for over 50,000 tons by 2025.
• Implement CCUS studies, including a demonstration unit targeting 30 tpd of CO2 capture.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Group's approved annual investment budget for 2025 is between 24 and 28 trillion pesos.

ISA, an Ecopetrol subsidiary, is expected to invest between 5.7 and 6.5 trillion pesos in 2025, which is approximately 21% of the Ecopetrol Group's total annual budget.

ISA's investment focus for 2025 is heavily weighted toward electric transmission, with approximately 90% of its budget allocated there, aiming to increase the electric power grid to approximately 50,400 km in operation by 2025.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) holds leading positions through ISA and its subsidiaries in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, which includes road concessions in Chile and presence in the telecommunications sector.

The strategy includes investment in telecommunications and real-time systems (XM) via ISA, which participates in the management of real-time systems.

New business models are being developed around the goal to leverage an additional reduction of about 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2025.

The investment budget for SosTECnibilidad® projects and activities in 2025 is set at approximately 2.3 trillion pesos.

The allocation of this 2.3 trillion pesos budget for SosTECnibilidad® is expected to be distributed as follows:

• 29% focused on climate change.
• 18% focused on sustainable territories.
• 12% focused on innovation, science and technology.
• 12% focused on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• The remaining 29% on other material issues.

The company also projects a goal of 900 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2025.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) pursues inorganic growth opportunities outside Colombia through its subsidiary ISA, which has established international operations in non-traditional energy sectors such as electricity transmission and road concessions in countries like Chile.

For context on inorganic growth, Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) reported inorganic investments of USD 239 million (approximately COP 1 trillion) in 2024.