Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

Honestly, trying to map out the next big growth phase for Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. without a clear framework can feel like navigating without a compass, so I've distilled their strategy using the Ansoff Matrix. After two decades analyzing tech scale-ups, I find this tool cuts through the noise, showing you exactly where the near-term wins are-like boosting current K-12 sales through subscription discounts-versus the bigger, riskier bets, such as breaking into the European airport security market. Below, you'll see the four clear paths-Market Penetration, Development, Product Innovation, and Diversification-with concrete actions mapped out, giving you the precise roadmap you need to assess their trajectory right now. This matrix is your blueprint for evaluating their next 18 months of expansion.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) can squeeze more revenue out of the customers and markets it already serves. This is about deepening the relationship with existing K-12 districts, sports venues, and current enterprise clients. It's the lowest-risk quadrant, but it still requires focused execution, especially as the company navigates its shift to direct fulfillment.

Increase sales volume of Evolv Express in existing K-12 school districts.

The focus here is on expanding the footprint within the districts you've already won. We see clear evidence of success in this area; for instance, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. secured a significant $15 million contract with Gwinnett County Public Schools in Q2 2025. Furthermore, the performance metrics from existing school deployments are strong, with the Evolv eXpedite bag screening solution showing early deployments with approximately 2% alert rates in education settings. This low alert rate is a key selling point for high-throughput environments like schools, helping drive deeper adoption across more entry points within a single district.

Offer subscription discounts for multi-year contracts to boost recurring revenue.

Driving customers toward longer-term commitments directly impacts the predictability of your revenue stream. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s shift to direct purchase fulfillment is designed to capture more value upfront, with management noting they now capture 100% of the average revenue per unit (ARPU) on these direct deals. This strategy supports the impressive growth in recurring revenue metrics; as of Q3 2025, the company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $117.2 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase. Also, the total backlog, or Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO), reached $299 million as of September 30, 2025.

Target higher utilization rates in existing stadium and arena deployments.

For venues, utilization is about getting more systems running and proving the value proposition repeatedly. The company has solidified its presence in the sports sector, renewing its agreement with Major League Soccer's Columbus Crew and deploying at Inter Miami CF's Miami Freedom Park. A major indicator of real-world adoption across venues is the milestone reached by the eXpedite solution, which surpassed one million bags screened since its launch. Higher utilization means more recurring software revenue from these existing venue contracts. Honestly, proving throughput at iconic venues is what gets the next one signed.

Expand sales team coverage in current US metropolitan areas with high-security needs.

While the company is focused on direct fulfillment, scaling the sales engine remains critical for penetrating existing high-density markets. Currently, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. has approximately 35 quota-carrying sales executives, a number that has been relatively steady since the end of the prior year. The goal is clearly to convert the growing pipeline into closed business, supported by the raised FY2025 revenue guidance of $142 million to $145 million. The company serves over 1,000 customers globally and is aiming to finish 2025 with at least 8,000 active subscriptions, up from over 7,000 at the end of Q2 2025.

Run targeted campaigns to convert pilot programs into full-scale deployments.

Converting a successful pilot into a large, multi-year deal is the ultimate goal of market penetration efforts. The company recently announced securing its largest customer contract to date, valued at $3 million. Furthermore, Q3 2025 revenue grew 57% year-over-year to $42.9 million, driven by strong new customer additions and the expansion of deployments with existing customers. These large-scale conversions are what management points to when they discuss momentum and the ability to deliver positive cash flow in Q4 2025.

Here's a quick look at the key 2025 metrics supporting this penetration strategy:

The company is definitely making progress on scaling within its existing customer base. Finance: draft the Q4 2025 cash flow projection by next Tuesday.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. can take its existing Evolv Express system and push it into new geographic areas or new customer types. This is about finding fresh buyers for what you already build well.

Financially, the momentum is clear, which supports these expansion efforts. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to be between $142 million and $145 million as of November 2025. This follows a Q2 2025 revenue of $32.5 million, marking a 29% year-over-year increase. The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $110.5 million at the end of Q2 2025, which is a 27% jump from the prior year. The company expects to achieve positive free cash flow in Q4 2025.

Here's how the specific market development plays map out with the numbers we have:

• Enter the European market by securing a major airport security contract.

While a major airport security contract for 2025 isn't explicitly detailed, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. did help protect European Events during the Summer of 2024, showing existing international operational experience.

• Target new vertical markets like logistics hubs and corporate campuses in the US.

The expansion into new verticals is happening now. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. serves over 1,000 customers globally, with active subscriptions surpassing 7,000 as of Q2 2025, aiming for at least 8,000 by year-end. New customer adoption in Q4 2024 included industrial workplaces. Q2 2025 saw deployments in the sports sector, including the new Miami Freedom Park, and healthcare, such as the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center. The company also secured a significant $15 million contract with Gwinnett County Public Schools.

• Establish a distribution partnership to sell Evolv Express in the Middle East.

To support global scale, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. entered a strategic contract manufacturing partnership with Plexus Corp. in November 2025. This partnership provides a scalable platform to support global expansion through Plexus' international production network.

• Adapt product messaging to focus on loss prevention for large retail chains.

The traction of the newer Evolv eXpedite bag screening solution is a key indicator of new product-market fit within existing customer segments. The eXpedite solution has reached 20 customers since launch, with 8 added in Q2 2025, and booked an order of over 100 systems recently. This platform has screened over one million bags in real-world use.

• Pursue government contracts for federal building and courthouse security.

Security screening is commonly associated with courthouses. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. secured a contract with the National Gallery of Art (NGA), a federal entity, for $97,899, with a performance period starting 09/26/2025 and ending 07/31/2026.

The current operational scale and financial health provide a base for these market development moves:

The shift to direct fulfillment is also a key component supporting this strategy, as it brings in higher revenue and higher ARR on a per-unit basis compared to distribution fulfillment. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. can grow by introducing new products or significantly improving existing ones into current markets, which is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. The financial context for this strategy is strong growth, with Q3 2025 revenue hitting $42.9 million, a 57% increase year-over-year.

The company's focus on subscription value is clear, with Ending Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reaching $117.2 million as of September 30, 2025, representing a 25% year-over-year jump. This financial momentum supports investment in the product pipeline you're outlining.

Here are the key performance indicators from the latest reported period that ground the product development strategy:

The product development initiatives align with capturing more value from the existing customer base and expanding the total addressable market with specialized hardware.

• Launch Evolv Reveal, a new AI-powered threat detection software, as a premium upgrade.
• Develop a smaller, portable version of the Evolv Express for temporary events.
• Integrate advanced biometric authentication features into the existing platform.
• Create a new data analytics dashboard for customers to track security metrics.
• Introduce a lower-cost, entry-level screening system for smaller venues.

For the proposed premium upgrade, Evolv Reveal, the existing Evolv Insights platform already provides deep analytics, including visitor arrival curves, detection performance, and alarm statistics, which can be presented in granular timeframes down to five-minute increments. This suggests the premium upgrade would likely focus on advanced AI models or specialized threat signatures, building on the current software foundation. The company is already seeing success with specialized hardware, as Evolv eXpedite, the bag screening solution, added 12 new customers in Q3 2025 alone. This traction validates the strategy of developing purpose-built hardware like a portable Evolv Express or a lower-cost system.

The shift in sales model also supports product tiering. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. is emphasizing ARR over onetime product revenue, which is expected to defer about $5 million to $10 million of revenue out of 2026 as they maximize ARR capture. Introducing a lower-cost system would need to be structured primarily as a subscription to fit this strategic financial direction, perhaps with a lower upfront hardware price to align with the new direct purchase fulfillment model.

The integration of advanced biometrics would enhance the existing platform, which has already screened over 3 billion people since 2019. This scale provides the necessary data volume to train and validate new authentication features effectively. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) can grow beyond its current market of AI-based touchless screening, which is a smart move given the current financial trajectory. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. reported total revenue of $107.4 million, a solid jump from $74.8 million in the same period last year. Also, that subscription revenue, which is the predictable stuff, hit $62.1 million for those nine months. The company is guiding for 2025 total revenues between $142 million to $145 million, and they expect Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) to grow at least 20% in 2026, aiming for a 2026 total revenue between $160 million to $165 million. Cash on hand as of September 30, 2025, was $56.2 million, which gives you some dry powder for these diversification plays.

Diversification, in this context, means moving into new markets or developing new products entirely, which is the most aggressive quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. Here's a look at the potential avenues Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. could pursue, grounded in the market realities of 2025.

Acquire a complementary physical security company specializing in access control systems

Buying into access control systems means you are targeting a segment that is already large and growing. The global physical security market is estimated to be valued around $108.39 Bn in 2025, and Physical Identity & Access Management (PIAM) is noted as a segment leading market growth within the broader industry. Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. could integrate a dedicated access control solution with its existing screening data, creating a unified entry management platform. This move leverages your existing enterprise customer base in venues and corporate settings. The cash position of $56.2 million as of September 30, 2025, could fund a strategic bolt-on acquisition, or at least a significant down payment.

Develop a new product line for perimeter security using drone-based AI monitoring

Perimeter security is a natural extension, moving from the entry point to the boundary. Drone-based AI monitoring taps into the broader trend of integrating AI and IoT devices for real-time monitoring, a key driver in the physical security market. While specific market size for drone security is harder to pin down, the software segment of the physical security market is estimated to contribute 42.8% of the market share in 2025, suggesting a strong appetite for AI-driven solutions. This development would require continued investment, similar to the $4.7 million in Research and Development expenses reported for June 2025.

Launch a consulting service for venue security and risk management planning

This is a services play, moving up the value chain from hardware/software sales to advisory. The services segment in physical security is noted as the fastest growing component in the U.S. market. Given Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s existing customer base of over 1,000 customers, many of whom are iconic venues, schools, and hospitals, you already have deep domain expertise. You could charge premium rates for risk planning, which complements the data provided by Evolv Insights®, the company's data analytics dashboard.

Create a new software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform for global threat intelligence sharing

A global threat intelligence sharing platform is pure SaaS, which aligns perfectly with Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s focus on growing its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which stood at $117.2 million at the end of Q3 2025. This strategy capitalizes on the increasing need for data analytics and centralized monitoring in security operations. The company expects ARR to grow by at least 20% in 2026, so a new high-margin SaaS offering could accelerate that goal. The current Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) of approximately $299 million shows customers are willing to commit to future service delivery.

Enter the residential security market with a simplified, smart-home screening device

The residential segment is a distinct new market for Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. The retail and e-commerce sectors are driving growth in the physical security market due to theft concerns, and while residential is separate, it shares the need for simple, high-volume screening. The U.S. physical security market is expected to reach $56,805.7 million by 2030, growing at a 5.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. A simplified, smart-home device would need to be priced aggressively to gain traction against established players, perhaps leveraging the cost structure improvements from the new manufacturing partnership with Plexus.

Here's a quick comparison of the market context for these new areas:

The shift to a direct fulfillment model is impacting near-term margins, as evidenced by the Q3 2025 Adjusted Gross Margin of 51%, down from 64% in Q3 2024. Still, the company achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA of $5.1 million in Q3 2025, and management expects positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 with margins in the high single digits. You've got to make sure any diversification investment doesn't derail the path to positive free cash flow expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view incorporating potential M&A outlay by Friday.