FAT Brands Inc. (FAT): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) right now, and honestly, that 3.5% same-store sales decline in Q3 2025 is a clear signal that market penetration needs immediate focus. But don't panic; the 900-1,000 unit development pipeline shows the long game is solid, especially with $35-$40 million in annual cash flow preserved by the dividend pause. As your former BlackRock analyst, I've mapped out exactly where FAT Brands can deploy that capital and focus its energy across four clear paths-from doubling down on existing stores to making smart international bets-so you can see the near-term fixes and the long-term expansion blueprint below.

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) plans to squeeze more revenue from its existing markets and brands. This is about maximizing what they already have, which is often the quickest path to cash flow improvement when the balance sheet is tight.

The focus on co-branding is a clear play here. They're targeting approximately 50 additional dual-branded locations to roll out. This isn't just a hunch; the first Round Table Pizza/Fatburger unit in California validated the model by more than doubling the weekly sales and transactions it generated when it was just a standalone Round Table Pizza location. That's a powerful proof point for market penetration within existing real estate footprints.

For digital and off-premise growth, you see the strategic partnership for Great American Cookies. This move leverages the scale of Virtual Dining Concepts to place the brand inside Chuck E. Cheese locations nationwide. As of Q3 2025 reporting, this partnership had 450+ locations live, with another ~500 targeted by year-end. While the specific digital sales percentage for Great American Cookies wasn't detailed, this massive physical expansion through a third party acts as a significant penetration driver. Remember, FAT Brands Inc. currently manages 18 distinct restaurant brands.

To fund initiatives like targeted local advertising for brands that might be lagging, the company is preserving capital. The dividend pause is set to keep $35-$40 million in annual cash flow within the business. That's the pool of money available to deploy for immediate, market-specific boosts.

Driving same-store sales (SSS) growth is critical for existing locations. The casual dining segment showed real traction in the third quarter, posting a 3.9% SSS increase. That's a positive signal for brands like Twin Peaks, which is a key part of that segment. Still, you have to balance that against the broader system pressure; overall system-wide sales declined by 5.5% in Q3 2025. That gap between segment strength and overall decline shows where the focus needs to be.

To directly address the system-wide sales pressure, especially in segments like Fazoli's, the plan involves tactical pricing moves. Offering limited-time value menus is a classic market penetration tactic designed to pull traffic back into the stores when consumers are feeling the pinch. Here's a quick look at some of those key Q3 2025 metrics:

These actions are designed to immediately improve performance in known markets:

• Replicate the doubled weekly sales from the initial co-branded unit.
• Deploy capital preserved from the dividend pause, which is $35-$40 million annually.
• Target advertising spend for underperforming brands using preserved cash flow.
• Build on the 3.9% SSS growth seen in the casual dining segment.
• Counter the 5.5% system-wide sales decline with value offerings.

The success of the co-branding strategy, specifically the first Round Table Pizza/Fatburger unit, is the clearest indicator of near-term penetration opportunity. Finance: draft the Q4 2025 cash flow projection incorporating the full impact of the dividend pause by Friday.

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at the hard numbers behind FAT Brands Inc.'s push into new geographies and customer segments. This isn't theory; it's about where the capital and development focus are currently aimed.

For the European foothold, the commitment is clear with new agreements to open 40 locations across France, covering both the Fatburger and Buffalo's Cafe concepts, as reported in the first quarter of 2025.

The international momentum from Johnny Rockets is being used to drive further global growth. In 2025, the brand opened seven new locations across five countries: Iraq, Chile, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, and Brazil. This success has pushed the total number of Johnny Rockets locations across these key markets past 100. Globally, Johnny Rockets operates over 250 locations in more than 25 countries.

The dessert and cookie concepts are also seeing international development. FAT Brands has a new deal to open 10 co-branded Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery stores in Iraq over the next five years. This builds on the existing presence, as FAT Brands already has seven locations in Iraq to date. For context, Great American Cookies alone operates more than 400 bakeries.

Domestically, the aggressive development playbook from Florida is being used as a template for other US states. The Florida expansion targets 40 additional Fatburger locations over the next 10 years. This new commitment follows an initial 14-unit development deal in the Orlando and Tampa areas, which has seen two restaurants operational since the brand's return to Florida in 2021.

The conversion strategy targets capturing higher-volume customer segments by shifting underperforming assets. FAT Brands is executing a plan to convert 60 Smokey Bones restaurants into the higher-performing Twin Peaks brand. The cost to convert one of these standing restaurants is estimated between $3.5-$4.5M, significantly less than the up to $7.5M for a new unit including land. The first such conversion, in Lakeland, Florida, saw annual sales jump from $3.6 million to $8.3 million. Management has identified a pipeline of approximately 30 Smokey Bones locations for this conversion strategy over the next several years. At the time of its acquisition, Twin Peaks had 82 stores open.

Here is a summary of the key market development targets:

The company has approximately 1,000 signed development deals in its overall pipeline as of Q2 2025.

You should track the progress on these specific unit counts against the stated timelines. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how FAT Brands Inc. can push new offerings into its existing markets, which is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This is about maximizing revenue from the current customer base by giving them something new to buy, so let's look at the numbers supporting these moves.

To capitalize on the momentum in the casual dining space, consider the recent performance of Twin Peaks. The casual dining segment posted same-store sales growth of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2025. This growth signals a healthy appetite in that segment, which should support introducing new, premium menu items at both Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones, even as the latter undergoes brand transformation; for instance, one Smokey Bones location was closed during its conversion to a Twin Peaks lodge in Q1 2025, and another eleven underperforming Smokey Bones locations were closed in Q3 2025.

Leveraging the internal manufacturing capacity is a clear path for product extension. FAT Brands Inc.'s manufacturing division posted an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.6% in Q3 2025, showing the high-margin potential of this asset. The Atlanta, Georgia plant has significant available capacity right now, specifically for cookie dough at 11 MM lbs./year and for pretzel mix at 5 MM lbs./year. This facility generated $8.8 million in Q1 sales, with an adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million, reflecting a 35% margin in that quarter.

The virtual kitchen model is already seeing success and is ripe for expansion beyond the initial concept. The Great American Cookies partnership with Virtual Dining Concepts, utilizing Chuck E. Cheese kitchens, is projected to reach close to 900 locations by the end of 2025, up from an initial rollout at over 400 locations by the end of August 2025. This move alone is expected to nearly double Great American Cookies' reach by year's end. This digital focus is already meaningful; digital sales for Great American Cookies accounted for 25% of total revenue in Q2 2025.

Co-branding in smaller footprints is another proven tactic. FAT Brands Inc. opened its first tri-branded restaurant combining Great American Cookies, Marble Slab Creamery, and Pretzelmaker in Roanoke, Texas, in January 2025. Well-managed co-branding can deliver an incremental sales lift of 10% to 20%. As of Q3 2024, the company already operated roughly 160 co-branded Marble Slab Creamery and Great American Cookies locations.

For Fatburger, testing higher-margin items is key to driving check averages. While specific limited-edition burger data isn't available, the brand's growth pipeline is strong, with a development deal signed in Florida to open an additional 40 Fatburger locations over the next decade, aiming for a state presence of approximately 50 locations.

Here is a snapshot of the relevant operational and financial metrics supporting these product development avenues:

The focus on expanding the manufacturing output is a core strategic pillar, as the COO noted. The company is also actively refranchising, with plans to refranchise its 57 company-operated Fazoli's restaurants to reduce capital intensity.

The following lists detail the scale of recent product/brand integration and expansion efforts:

• Smokey Bones underperforming locations closed: 1 (Q1 2025), 5 (Q2 2025), 11 (Q3 2025).
• New Twin Peaks lodges opened, including one from a Smokey Bones conversion in Q1 2025.
• Great American Cookies classic flavors offered in the VDC partnership include Chocolate Chip, Sugar Cookie, Red Velvet, Cookies & Cream, and Snickerdoodle.
• Fatburger development deal in Florida: 40 additional locations over the next decade.

You should review the capital required to expand mixing equipment at the Georgia plant, as this could nearly double production capacity. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) can move beyond just selling more of its existing franchises in current markets. Diversification here means bringing in new revenue sources or new types of offerings. It's the highest-risk quadrant, but the potential payoff is a less correlated business profile.

The manufacturing side is a clear area for diversification, moving from purely internal supply to a third-party business model. FAT Brands Inc. aims to grow factory production to utilize approximately 55% of excess capacity through expanded organic channels and third-party dough and mix manufacturing. This strategy is seen as a transformative step in their manufacturing growth, leveraging partnerships like the one with Virtual Dining Concepts for Great American Cookies availability from Chuck E. Cheese locations nationwide.

The company has already demonstrated a willingness to separate assets to unlock capital, as seen with the successful spin-off of Twin Hospitality Group Inc., which delivered a $50 million dividend to shareholders. This precedent supports the idea of spinning off the manufacturing division into a separate, asset-backed entity to secure new B2B customers and potentially realize hidden value, though specific financial targets for a manufacturing spin-off aren't public yet.

For new concepts, the focus in 2025 has been on accelerating the existing pipeline, with 60 new restaurants opened year-to-date as of Q3 2025, supported by approximately 900 committed locations expected to contribute $50-$60 million in incremental EBITDA once fully operational. While a new concept in the Pacific Northwest isn't explicitly detailed, international expansion is active, with new agreements secured to open 40 locations across France for Fatburger and Buffalo's Cafe concepts.

Complementing the existing casual dining portfolio, specifically Twin Peaks, is a stated goal. Twin Peaks is on track to open 19 more lodges in 2025, adding to its current count. The strategy has involved converting underperforming Smokey Bones locations into Twin Peaks lodges; for instance, two Smokey Bones locations were temporarily closed for this conversion in Q3 2025. The last reported acquisition was Smokey Bones in September 2023, not a recent sports bar brand bolt-on in 2025.

The financial context for these diversification efforts in Q3 2025 shows Total Revenue at $140.0 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $13.1 million. Management is focused on balance sheet strengthening, which includes a dividend pause preserving $35-$40 million in annual cash flow and over $5 million in annual G&A reductions. Furthermore, plans are advancing for a $75-$100 million equity raise at Twin Hospitality Group Inc. to pay down debt.

Here's a look at the current operational scale and financial context influencing these diversification moves:

The strategy involves several parallel paths to de-risk the core franchising model:

• Secure third-party dough/mix contracts targeting 55% excess factory capacity utilization.
• Leverage manufacturing growth strategy via partnerships like Virtual Dining Concepts.
• Advance plans for a $75-$100 million equity raise at Twin Hospitality Group Inc.
• Continue conversion of Smokey Bones locations to Twin Peaks lodges.
• Maintain focus on international expansion, with 40 new locations committed in France.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.