Guardant Health, Inc. (GH): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Looking at Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) in late 2025, you see a company at a critical inflection point, where your core oncology business is funding a massive, high-risk screening bet, which is the classic BCG dynamic. Your Stars, like Guardant360 Liquid and the fast-growing Reveal test, are powering a 66% non-GAAP gross margin and are expected to drive 25% year-over-year revenue growth, essentially acting as the Cash Cows funding the future. Meanwhile, the massive potential of the Shield colorectal cancer screening program is currently burning cash-projected to contribute to a $225 million to $235 million free cash flow burn-making it the quintessential Question Mark you need to watch defintely. Let's break down exactly where your resources are best deployed across this portfolio.

Background of Guardant Health, Inc. (GH)

You're looking at Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) as of late 2025, and the story right now is one of significant top-line acceleration, even as the company continues to invest heavily for future scale. Guardant Health, based in Redwood City, California, is a leader in the liquid biopsy space, meaning they develop blood tests to find and monitor cancer by analyzing tumor DNA circulating in the bloodstream, helping doctors make treatment choices without needing invasive tissue biopsies.

The momentum they've built is clear from their recent numbers. For the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, Guardant Health reported total revenue of $265.2 million, which was a strong 39% jump compared to the same period last year. Honestly, this growth is being driven across the board, but the core Oncology testing volumes-which include the flagship Guardant360 Liquid test-grew 40% year-over-year in that quarter. This suggests their established products are still gaining deep penetration in treatment selection.

Because of this strong performance, Guardant Health has already raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance twice, now projecting total revenue between $965 million and $970 million. To put that in perspective, that represents about 31% growth over the $739.0 million they brought in for the full year of 2024. They are definitely spending to fuel this, with operating expenses rising due to commercial team expansion, particularly to support the newer screening products.

Speaking of new products, the Shield test, which is their liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer screening and received full FDA approval as a primary screening option in 2024, is a major focus. They even announced a broad strategic collaboration with Quest Diagnostics (DGX) to expand Shield's reach. The company is seeing good progress here; for instance, in Q2 2025, Shield revenue hit $14.8 million, and management is projecting an average selling price (ASP) around $800 for the second half of 2025, a big improvement from earlier in the year. Even the Guardant Reveal test for minimal residual disease (MRD) is now gross margin positive, which is a key operational win.

Now, while the revenue growth is impressive, you know the trade-off in this industry: profitability. Guardant Health is still operating at a loss, reporting a net loss of $92.7 million in Q3 2025, and their non-GAAP gross margin was 66% for that quarter. The company is managing its cash burn, which was $(45.8) million in Q3 2025, and management has publicly stated a target to reach cash flow breakeven by the end of 2027. That's the near-term financial hurdle you'll be watching.

Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) - BCG Matrix: Stars

You're analyzing the portfolio of Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) right now, looking for where the high-growth, high-share products sit. These Stars are the engine, but they definitely consume cash to maintain that leading position in expanding markets. Here's the quick math on the products that fit this profile based on the latest numbers from the third quarter of 2025.

Guardant360 Liquid

Guardant360 Liquid is clearly a leader in the advanced cancer liquid biopsy space, and its momentum is strong. You saw oncology volumes-which include this test-grow by an impressive 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating volume growth for Guardant360 Liquid specifically. This sustained volume acceleration is what keeps it firmly in the Star quadrant, demanding investment to keep that market share lead.

Guardant Reveal

The Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) test, Guardant Reveal, is cited as the company's fastest-growing oncology product. While I don't have the exact market size for recurrence monitoring confirmed right now, its internal performance shows rapid maturation. Management announced that Reveal achieved positive gross margins in the first quarter of 2025. Furthermore, the cost structure has improved dramatically; the cost of goods sold (COGS) for Reveal fell from over $1,000 per test in Q3 2024 to less than $500 per test in Q3 2025. Its average selling price (ASP) in Q2 2025 was in the $600 to $700 range. That cost reduction is key to turning this high-growth product into a future Cash Cow.

Core Oncology Portfolio Performance

The entire Core Oncology Portfolio is solidifying its high-share position within a market that is clearly still growing rapidly. For the full year 2025, management expects this segment to drive approximately 25% year-over-year revenue growth. Looking at the most recent quarter, Q3 2025 Oncology revenue hit $184.4 million, representing a 31% increase from the prior year period. The volume underpinning this was approximately 74,000 oncology tests, which was a 40% jump.

Here's a breakdown of the Q3 2025 oncology segment performance:

Smart Liquid Biopsy Platform

The underlying technology, the Guardant Infinity smart liquid biopsy platform, is what enables these product upgrades and sustained high volume growth across the portfolio. This platform is driving innovation, such as the launch of the upgraded Guardant360 Tissue test, which requires 92% less tissue surface area for analysis than the industry norm. Also, the platform is central to strategic partnerships; for instance, Guardant Health entered a multi-year collaboration with Pfizer to support oncology therapy development using the Guardant Infinity platform. This technology is the foundation for expanding applications, which helps maintain market leadership.

You should track these key operational metrics supporting the Star status:

• Oncology volumes grew 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
• Full year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to the range of $965 to $970 million.
• Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 66% in Q3 2025.
• The company crossed over $1 billion in annualized revenue in Q3 2025.

Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at the established, reliable parts of Guardant Health, Inc.'s business-the units that fund the riskier bets. These are the segments that have achieved market leadership and now generate more cash than they consume, or at least contribute heavily to covering corporate overhead.

Biopharma & Data Partnerships: Stable, predictable revenue stream, expected to grow in the mid-teens range in 2025.

The Biopharma & Data segment delivered a solid performance in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue for this segment reached $54.7 million, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period in 2024. For the full year 2025, Guardant Health, Inc. expects this revenue growth to continue in the mid-teens range.

Here's a quick look at the revenue trajectory for this segment:

Established Guardant360 (Excluding High-Growth Reveal): The mature portion of the oncology business that, when excluding the screening segment, helped the rest of the business achieve cash flow positive status in Q3 2025.

The core diagnostic testing business, primarily the established Guardant360 and Reveal tests, is the engine here. In the third quarter of 2025, the total Oncology revenue, which includes these established tests, was $184.4 million, a 31% increase year-over-year. The volume for these oncology tests grew 40% year-over-year, reaching approximately 74,000 tests in the quarter. Guardant Health, Inc. management highlighted that excluding the Shield screening business, the rest of the business achieved positive free cash flow in the third quarter of 2025, a full quarter ahead of prior expectations.

Consider the contribution from the core oncology testing:

• Oncology Revenue (Q3 2025): $184.4 million
• Oncology Test Volume (Q3 2025): Approximately 74,000 tests
• Oncology Volume Growth (YoY): 40%
• Cash Flow Status (Excluding Screening): Positive free cash flow in Q3 2025

Licensing and Other Revenue: Smaller, high-margin revenue from intellectual property and collaborations, providing consistent, low-investment cash flow.

This category represents smaller, consistent income streams from intellectual property and various collaborations. For the third quarter of 2025, this revenue stream was reported at $2.0 million. This compares to $2.7 million in the corresponding prior year period for the same quarter. This type of revenue typically requires minimal ongoing investment to maintain.

High Non-GAAP Gross Margin: Overall non-GAAP gross margin is strong at 66% in Q3 2025, indicating efficient production for the established tests.

The efficiency in delivering the established tests is reflected in the margin performance. For the third quarter of 2025, Guardant Health, Inc.'s overall non-GAAP gross margin stood strong at 66%. This is an improvement from 63% in the third quarter of 2024. The full-year 2025 guidance for non-GAAP gross margin was raised to a range of 64% to 65%.

The margin strength is clear when you look at the year-over-year comparison:

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

The Dogs quadrant for Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) likely encompasses older, less technologically differentiated service lines or products that require maintenance capital but do not command the high growth or margin profile of the core liquid biopsy offerings.

Older Tissue-Based Tests: Guardant360 Tissue

The focus on the Smart Liquid Biopsy platform implies legacy tissue testing is being marginalized. While the upgraded Guardant360 TissueNext operates with a 498 gene panel, the previous, less comprehensive versions would fall into this category. The company reported that clinical test volume growth was 24% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is higher than the biopharma test volume growth of 16% in the same period, suggesting a potential slowdown in the Biopharma segment which might include older service contracts.

Legacy Non-Core Services: Development Services and Other

Financial metrics for the segment that often houses non-core or legacy services show significantly lower profitability compared to the core precision oncology business. The gross margin for Development services and other was 23% in the third quarter of 2024, and 37% in the second quarter of 2024. This contrasts sharply with the Precision Oncology gross margin of 62% for the full year 2024. For the first quarter of 2025, the gross margin for this segment was not explicitly broken out in the same manner, but the overall gross margin improved to 65% in Q3 2025, suggesting continued focus on higher-margin core activities.

The cash consumption associated with lower-growth areas is evident in the overall cash burn figures, though the company is driving improvement:

Undifferentiated Generic Testing

The company has seen its Guardant360 Average Selling Price (ASP) stabilize or increase, suggesting differentiation is being maintained in the core offering. The Guardant360 ASP was over $3,000 in the third quarter of 2024 and in the range of $3,000 to $3,100 per test in the first quarter of 2025. This indicates that the primary liquid biopsy tests are not yet facing severe price erosion typical of undifferentiated products. However, any older testing protocols not yet migrated to the Smart Liquid Biopsy platform or the Infinity smart liquid biopsy platform would face this risk.

The following points summarize the relative performance of the core business, which helps define what the Dogs are by contrast:

• Full Year 2024 Total Revenue: $739.0 million.
• Projected Full Year 2025 Total Revenue Range (as of Q3 2025): $965 to $970 million.
• Projected Oncology Revenue Growth for Full Year 2025 (as of Q3 2025): ~25% year over year.
• Oncology Clinical Volume Growth for Full Year 2025 (as of Q3 2025): Greater than 30%.
• Screening Revenue for Q3 2025: $17.9 million (Implied from $265.2M Total - $158.7M Oncology - $56.0M Biopharma & Data).

The decision to divestiture candidates would center on units like the Development Services and Other segment, which showed a gross margin as low as 23% in Q3 2024.

Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

These business units operate in markets showing significant expansion but currently hold a low relative market share for Guardant Health, Inc. (GH). They consume substantial cash resources as the company invests heavily to capture this growth potential.

Shield Colorectal Cancer Screening represents a high-growth opportunity, targeting an unscreened market estimated at over 50 million people in the U.S. who avoid current options due to inconvenience. Despite this large addressable market, the segment has a low relative market share, necessitating significant investment to drive adoption.

The financial expectation for Shield Commercialization in the full year 2025 is projected to generate revenue in the range of $71 million to $73 million. This figure is a small fraction of the total company revenue guidance, which is set between $965 million and $970 million for the full year 2025. The projected Shield volume for 2025 is between 80,000 to 82,000 tests.

The Screening Cash Burn is the primary driver of the negative cash flow for the company's operations. The full-year 2025 free cash flow burn is projected to be in the range of $(225 million) to $(235 million). This investment is aimed at rapidly increasing market share for Shield to prevent it from becoming a Dog quadrant product.

The strategy for these Question Marks involves heavy investment to quickly convert them into Stars. Guardant Health, Inc. is actively pursuing market penetration through strategic moves:

• Strategic collaboration with Quest Diagnostics to expand nationwide access to Shield.
• Partnership with PathGroup bringing Shield to 250+ hospitals and health systems in 25 states.
• Improved performance of Shield V2 CRC screening test.

Shield Multi-Cancer Detection (MCD) is an even earlier-stage product within this quadrant. It has massive market potential but currently low clinical adoption and requires high Research and Development (R&D) cost. The company is initiating a large-scale real-world data initiative for Shield MCD and has announced strong real-world performance from a new study involving 9,251 individuals for Shield MCD.

Here's a snapshot of the financial context for the Screening segment versus the total company outlook for fiscal year 2025: