Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Live Ventures Incorporated right now, and frankly, that $21.7 million net income swing over the nine months ending June 30, 2025, tells you one thing: this company is anything but boring. As someone who's spent two decades mapping out market risks, I know that big swings like that mean we need to look past the headlines and deep into the structural forces shaping their business. We need to see exactly where the pressure is coming from-is it the suppliers in steel, the customers in flooring, or the digital giants attacking their vintage media segment? Below, we break down the Bargaining Power of Suppliers, Customers, Competitive Rivalry, Threat of Substitutes, and Threat of New Entrants using Porter's framework to give you a clear, actionable picture of Live Ventures' true competitive moat as of late 2025.

Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

You're assessing the input costs for Live Ventures Incorporated's core manufacturing operations, and supplier leverage is definitely a key area to watch, especially given the recent performance trends through the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. The power dynamic shifts quite a bit between the Steel Manufacturing segment and the Flooring Manufacturing segment, reflecting Live Ventures Incorporated's diversified structure.

High power in Steel Manufacturing due to reliance on non-domestic niche steel suppliers

For the Steel Manufacturing segment, which posted revenue of approximately $33.6 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the risk of supplier power remains elevated. This is because the specialized nature of certain inputs suggests a dependence on specific, often non-domestic, niche steel suppliers. While the segment saw incremental revenue of $5 million from the May 2024 acquisition of Central Steel, Fabricators, LLC, this internal sourcing doesn't negate external reliance for all raw materials. The gross margin for this segment did improve to 21.2% for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, compared to 14.3% the prior year, but this was attributed to operational efficiencies and the Central Steel contribution, not necessarily a reduction in supplier leverage for all input types.

Supplier power is reduced for Flooring Manufacturing by Marquis's vertical integration, extruding its own yarn

The situation is materially different over at Marquis Industries, the Flooring Manufacturing subsidiary. Here, Live Ventures Incorporated has successfully built a buffer against external yarn suppliers. Marquis operates a state-of-the-art extrusion plant, producing millions of pounds of continuous filament solution-dyed polyester and nylon yarn internally. This level of integration means that for a significant portion of their core material, supplier power is substantially diminished. The Flooring Manufacturing segment generated revenue of approximately $29.5 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2025. Controlling the yarn production allows Marquis to regulate every yarn SKU, which is a powerful lever for quality control and cost management, even when overall segment revenue was down 5.7% year-over-year for that quarter.

Here's a quick look at the scale of these manufacturing segments as of Q3 FY2025:

Raw material price volatility (steel, nylon/polyester) from global commodity markets remains a constant pressure

Even with vertical integration in flooring, the broader exposure to global commodity markets for steel, nylon, and polyester remains a constant pressure point for Live Ventures Incorporated. While Marquis controls its yarn output, the cost of the base polymers and the specialized steel inputs for Precision Marshall are subject to global swings. The gross margin expansion seen across the company-for example, the consolidated gross margin hit 34.0% in Q3 2025, up from 29.9% the prior year-was primarily attributed to changes in product mix and targeted cost reduction initiatives, not necessarily a favorable shift in raw material costs. This suggests that cost management is actively offsetting, rather than benefiting from, commodity prices.

The key areas where external market prices still exert influence include:

• Cost of base feedstocks for nylon and polyester extrusion.
• Pricing for specialized alloy and steel plates for Precision Marshall.
• Freight and logistics costs tied to global commodity movements.
• Input costs for vinyl and wood floor coverings sold by Marquis.

If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises, and similarly, if steel futures spike unexpectedly, the Steel Manufacturing segment's profitability will feel it fast. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

The bargaining power of customers for Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) varies significantly across its diversified operating segments, driven by end-market conditions and the specific nature of each customer relationship.

High customer power in Flooring due to 'ongoing softness' in new home construction and home refurbishment markets.

The pressure from customers in the flooring divisions is currently elevated. Live Ventures CFO David Verret specifically cited 'ongoing softness in the new home construction and home refurbishment markets' as a factor continuing to pressure the Retail-Flooring and Flooring Manufacturing segments as of the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. This market weakness translates directly into buyers having more leverage when negotiating terms or pricing.

For the Retail-Flooring segment, revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, was $30.4 million, marking a 17.9% decrease from the $36.9 million reported in the prior-year period. Furthermore, single-family housing starts in the broader US market plunged 8.5% in August 2025 to 890,000 units compared to the prior year, signaling continued headwinds for new construction demand. You can see the revenue impact below:

Moderate power in Steel Manufacturing; customers are distributors, but Precision Marshall's 99.98% same-day shipment rate creates switching costs.

Precision Marshall, which sells its premium tool steels and specialty alloys exclusively through independent distributors, faces customers who are themselves intermediaries. However, the operational excellence demonstrated by Precision Marshall acts as a counter-leverage point. The company is known for its quick and accurate service, with a reported same-day shipment rate of 99.98%. This high level of service reliability and availability creates tangible switching costs for distributors who rely on timely inventory replenishment.

Still, the segment revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, decreased by $5.4 million or 13.8% to approximately $33.6 million, suggesting that even strong operational performance cannot entirely insulate the segment from broader industrial demand shifts impacting its distributor base.

Retail-Flooring customers benefit from a highly competitive market with many local and national options.

Customers purchasing flooring products directly, particularly through the Flooring Liquidators subsidiary, operate in a market saturated with alternatives. This competitive intensity forces Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) to be highly responsive to pricing and service demands. The recent turnaround efforts at Flooring Liquidators, which included a focus on logistics to promise three-day delivery, directly address the customer need for speed in a competitive environment.

Key competitive dynamics for retail flooring customers include:

• Many local and national flooring retailers compete for share.
• Builder customers are served via Elite Builder Services, Inc.
• Retail customers are served through 30 warehouse-format stores and design centers.
• The need for aggressive pricing and incentives to maintain interest.

Retail-Entertainment customers have low switching costs for new media, but high loyalty for niche collectibles.

The Retail-Entertainment segment shows a bifurcated power dynamic based on product type. For standard new media products, switching costs for the end consumer are low, meaning price sensitivity is high. Conversely, for niche collectibles, customer loyalty appears stronger, allowing for higher selling prices, which helped this segment's revenue increase by $2.5 million or 15.2% to approximately $19 million in Q3 2025.

The customer base for this segment is characterized by:

• Low switching costs for general new media products.
• High loyalty observed in niche collectible product lines.
• Increased consumer demand for new products drove revenue growth.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at how Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) stacks up against its competition across its varied businesses. Honestly, the rivalry pressure isn't uniform; it's a mixed bag, which is the whole point of their diversified structure.

Intense Rivalry in Retail-Entertainment (Vintage Stock)

The Retail-Entertainment segment, anchored by Vintage Stock, definitely feels the heat from e-commerce giants like Amazon and eBay, plus established brick-and-mortar players like GameStop. Still, Vintage Stock is showing real traction against this backdrop. For the nine months ending June 30, 2025, revenue in this segment rose 9%, hitting approximately $58.8 million. That growth is backed by thirteen consecutive months of positive year-over-year comparable store sales. The operating margin improved by 230 basis points to land at 14.0% for that nine-month period. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended March 31, 2025), the segment brought in approximately $18.5 million in revenue, which was a 9.6% jump from the prior year. This suggests their focus on sourcing high-margin resale inventory from walk-in customers is working, even while competing with the big platforms.

High Rivalry in Flooring Retail (Flooring Liquidators)

The Flooring Liquidators business operates in a tough spot. The market is fragmented, full of local dealers and the pricing power of big-box stores. This pressure shows up in the numbers. For the six months ended March 31, 2025, the Retail-Flooring segment revenue was approximately $59.1 million, representing a 10.9% decrease year-over-year. Looking just at the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue dropped 14.5% to approximately $27.4 million. However, you should note the recent turnaround efforts. Management reported that Flooring Liquidators achieved positive EBITDA for four consecutive months through July 2025, and saw its first month of year-over-year revenue increase in July 2025. That turnaround is key to mitigating the high rivalry.

Moderate Rivalry in Niche Steel Manufacturing

In the niche Steel Manufacturing space, where Precision Marshall and its related units operate, the rivalry dynamic shifts. Here, competition leans less on pure price wars and more on established quality and long-term customer relationships. For the nine months ended June 30, 2025, segment revenue was approximately $97.4 million, down 9.7% from the prior year, partly due to lower sales volumes at some units. The gross margin for those nine months was 20.9%. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), revenue was approximately $33.6 million, a 13.8% decrease versus the prior year. The fact that the gross margin for that same quarter was 23.1% suggests that quality and strategic pricing-the competitive edge you mentioned-are successfully protecting profitability despite volume dips.

Diversified Portfolio Mitigates Overall Impact

The overall impact of intense rivalry in any single area is blunted because Live Ventures Incorporated is a holding company with these distinct segments. When one area faces pressure, another can offset it. For instance, while Retail-Flooring saw revenue declines, the Retail-Entertainment segment grew its revenue by 9.0% over nine months. The total revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 was $107.0 million. As of June 30, 2025, the company held total assets of $387.5 million and stockholders' equity of $94.3 million. This diversification means that a competitive slugfest in flooring doesn't sink the entire ship; the company has a financial buffer. Here's the quick math: the Retail-Entertainment segment contributed approximately $58.8 million in revenue over nine months, while Steel Manufacturing contributed $97.4 million over the same period.

Here is a snapshot of the recent segment performance:

You can see the operational differences clearly:

• Retail-Entertainment: 13 consecutive months of positive comps.
• Flooring Liquidators: Achieved positive EBITDA for 4 consecutive months through July 2025.
• Steel Manufacturing: Q3 2025 Gross Margin of 23.1%.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at the competitive landscape for Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) as of late 2025, and the threat of substitutes is definitely not uniform across its diverse portfolio. Some segments face an existential digital tide, while others benefit from essential material requirements.

The threat of substitutes in the Retail-Entertainment segment is very high, driven by the near-total dominance of digital streaming and downloads. Physical media sales, which include the movies, games, and music LIVE sells, have been in a structural decline. For context, total consumer spending on physical media like DVDs and Blu-rays slumped to under $1 billion in 2024, a record low since tracking began. This is stark when you see that total US consumer spending on subscription streaming alone for the first nine months of 2024 was $35 billion. Even within the physical space, the highest-quality format, 4K Blu-ray discs, saw sales fall 10.2% year-over-year. To be fair, niche physical formats like vinyl showed resilience, with sales reaching $1.7 billion in 2024, and physical music was 11% of total music revenue. Still, the overall trend for the core product mix of the Retail-Entertainment segment-which posted revenue of approximately $19.0 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025-is one of substitution by digital access.

Contrast that with the specialized tool steel products manufactured by Live Ventures Incorporated. This area faces a low threat of direct material substitution because these products are essential for high-demand sectors like automotive and aerospace, requiring specific properties like exceptional hardness and abrasion resistance. While the global tool steel market is projected to grow from $7.99 billion in 2024 to $8.12 billion in 2025, the substitution risk is mitigated by the material's necessity in high-volume production environments. What this estimate hides is that advanced materials like ceramics and composites are emerging as partial substitutes in specific niche applications, but they haven't displaced tool steel's versatility and cost-effectiveness overall.

The Flooring business, however, feels a high degree of substitution pressure. Alternative materials are actively replacing traditional carpet and hardwood, which are core to Live Ventures Incorporated's Flooring Manufacturing and Retail-Flooring segments. The market shift towards Luxury Vinyl Plank (LVP) and laminate flooring is significant, directly impacting demand for older materials. We can see this pressure reflected in Live Ventures Incorporated's own results; the Retail-Flooring segment revenue for the nine months ended June 30, 2025, was approximately $89.5 million, a decrease of 13.4% compared to the prior year period.

Here's a quick look at how the segments that face substitution threats performed in Q3 Fiscal 2025:

The fact that the Retail-Entertainment segment saw revenue increase by 15.2% to approximately $19.0 million in Q3 2025, while the Retail-Flooring segment dropped 17.9% to approximately $30.4 million, shows where consumer preference is shifting in the retail space.

Live Ventures Incorporated addresses this substitution threat in flooring head-on. Instead of just selling the threatened materials, the company is actively manufacturing and supplying the substitute materials themselves. The Flooring Manufacturing segment produces hard-surface flooring products, which includes LVP and rigid core products. This vertical integration allows Live Ventures Incorporated to capture value from the material shift rather than just being a victim of it. The CEO noted that the company is seeing positive trends from new products, which typically carry higher selling prices, helping the Retail-Entertainment segment grow revenue by 15.2% in Q3 2025.

The key forces at play regarding substitutes can be summarized:

• Digital streaming revenue projected to hit $187.4 billion globally in 2025.
• Physical media sales fell below $1 billion in 2024.
• Tool steel market size projected at $8.12 billion for 2025.
• Retail-Flooring revenue declined 17.9% in Q3 2025.
• Live Ventures Incorporated manufactures the substitute LVP/rigid core products.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for Live Ventures Incorporated (LIVE) is segmented across its diverse operations, with barriers varying significantly between its capital-intensive manufacturing businesses and its asset-light retail/holding company model.

High Barrier to Entry in Flooring Manufacturing

Entering the integrated flooring manufacturing space presents a substantial hurdle, primarily due to the sheer capital outlay required to establish facilities capable of competing with Marquis Industries. Marquis operates one of the newest and most efficient integrated carpet mills in the industry, boasting over 1,200,000 sq. ft. under roof. This integration, spanning from yarn extrusion to final product, demands significant investment in specialized machinery for processes like yarn extrusion and computer-controlled twisting and heat setting. Furthermore, the historical acquisition cost for a key flooring component, Flooring Liquidators, was substantial, with a related promissory note of $5.0 million entered into in January 2023. A new entrant would need to match this scale and technological sophistication to achieve the quality control and cost structure that Marquis maintains across its four wholly owned U.S. facilities.

High Barrier in Steel Manufacturing

The barrier to entry in Live Ventures Incorporated's specialized steel segment, represented by Precision Marshall Steel, is high due to the need for specialized equipment and processes to handle niche products like decarb-free tool steel. Precision Marshall's reputation is built on decades of supplying pre-hardened steel blanks and plate products. The capital required to replicate the necessary machinery for precision cutting and quality assurance, which supports a 99.98% same-day shipment rate, is considerable. The initial acquisition price for Precision Industries, Inc. (doing business as Precision Marshall) was approximately $31.5 million in cash in July 2020, indicating the high upfront cost to acquire established, specialized industrial capacity.

Low Barrier for Pure E-commerce Entrants, Offset by Physical Scale

For the Retail-Entertainment segment, Vintage Stock, the barrier to entry for a pure e-commerce player is relatively low, as digital storefronts are accessible. However, a competitor aiming to replicate Vintage Stock's market position faces a significant scale barrier due to its established physical footprint. Vintage Stock operates more than 70 stores across the country. This physical network supports a business model that relies on high-margin, walk-in sourced resale inventory. The segment's established scale is evidenced by its revenue growth of 9% for the nine months ending June 30, 2025, and an operating margin of 14.0% for the same period.

The Holding Company Model as a Low-Barrier Strategy

Live Ventures Incorporated's overarching strategy itself represents a lower-barrier entry method into diverse industries, as it relies on acquiring established, cash-flowing businesses rather than organic, greenfield entry. This is a buy-build-hold approach. The company's financial capacity to execute this strategy, as of June 30, 2025, included total assets of $387.5 million and approximately $37.1 million in cash and credit availability. The ability to deploy capital for acquisitions, such as the $28 million total consideration for Precision Metal Works in 2023, suggests that the primary barrier for a new holding company is securing sufficient capital and identifying targets, not building the underlying operational assets from scratch.

Key Data Points for New Entrant Assessment:

The threat of new entrants is mitigated by the following structural factors:

• Capital intensity for integrated flooring mills.
• Specialized equipment for decarb-free tool steel.
• Vintage Stock's established physical store network of over 70 locations.
• The need for significant capital to match historical acquisition prices.

The holding company structure itself lowers the barrier for Live Ventures Incorporated to enter new sectors, but the underlying manufacturing sectors remain protected by high sunk costs.