Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) and trying to figure out the smartest way to grow past the current Capacity Purchase Agreements (CPAs) while navigating that big E-175 fleet shift. Honestly, the next move isn't a simple one, but we've broken down the four clear paths using the Ansoff Matrix so you can see exactly where the near-term risks and opportunities lie. We are moving past vague ideas to concrete actions, whether that means squeezing more out of the existing United CPA or taking the plunge into something new like the electric aircraft service. This is your actionable blueprint for MESA's next chapter. Here's the quick math on their four growth lanes.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Mesa Air Group, Inc. can squeeze more revenue from the assets and contracts it already has in place. This is about maximizing what's already on the books, which is often the quickest path to better profitability, especially when you've just finished a major fleet transition.

The focus here is on driving up the daily use of your existing Embraer 175 (E-175) fleet under the United Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA). You've got the planes; now you need to fly them more often.

Here's a quick look at the utilization targets versus recent performance for the E-175 fleet flying for United Express:

As of the September 30, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. operated a fleet of 60 Embraer 175 (E-175) regional aircraft. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, you operated 54 E-175s under the United CPA. Block hours flown during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, decreased 2.0% compared to the same period in 2024, though block hours for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased 1.5% year-over-year due to an increase in average stage length.

When you look at the DHL cargo contract, the reality is that the partnership ended in 2024. The reduction in DHL revenue was cited as a driver for the decrease in total operating revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which stood at $103.2 million. Therefore, negotiating higher fixed fees within that structure isn't an option; the focus shifts entirely to the United CPA and any other active contracts.

Boosting operational efficiency above the 98% completion rate target is clearly being met, as the controllable completion factor for United was 100.00% for both the first quarter and the September 2025 quarter. For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the controllable completion factor was 99.9%. This level of reliability directly supports higher utilization without incurring penalties or cancellations.

For short-term wet-lease capacity, you can consider the fleet size and recent operational activity. In Q1 2025, you operated 62 large jets, comprising 54 E-175s and eight CRJ-900s, though the last CRJ-900 flight was on February 28, 2025, leaving only E-175s afterward. The adjusted pre-tax profit generated from United E-175 operations for the September 2025 quarter was $2.2 million, offset by $3.9 million of parked CRJ-900 aircraft and other non-E-175 expenses.

Aggressively managing maintenance costs directly impacts the operating margin, which was 1.05% for the trailing twelve months. Total operating expenses for the September 2025 quarter were $99.9 million, a decrease of $32.4 million, or 24.5%, versus the September 2024 quarter. This decrease reflects lower asset impairment expenses and lower maintenance, rent, and flight operations expenses tied to operating a smaller contractual fleet.

Key operational metrics supporting this penetration strategy include:

• Controllable completion factor for United: 100.00% (Q1 & Sep Qtr 2025).
• E-175 fleet size as of September 30, 2025: 60 aircraft.
• Total operating revenues for September 2025 Quarter: $90.7 million.
• Contract revenue for September 2025 Quarter: $66.0 million.
• Total operating expenses for September 2025 Quarter: $99.9 million.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

Market development for Mesa Air Group, Inc. centers on deploying its existing, now exclusively Embraer E-175, fleet capacity into new contractual arrangements or geographic areas, given the recent retirement of the CRJ-900 fleet.

Securing a new Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA) with a major US legacy carrier beyond the existing relationship is a key development vector. Following the November 25, 2025, merger, Mesa Airlines now supports United Airlines under a new 10-year CPA. Prior to this, Mesa had scaled back its operations to approximately 60 Embraer E-175 aircraft, all under contract with United. The combined entity now boasts a fleet of 310 E-Jets supporting over 1,300 daily departures across the network. The Q3 2025 results showed an adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million generated specifically from United E-175 operations, which was partially offset by expenses related to $3.9 million of parked CRJ-900 aircraft.

Expansion of the cargo division requires pursuing new logistics contracts, as revenue from the current cargo partnership saw a reduction due to the wind-down of its Flight Services Agreement (FSA) in Q1 2025. The company has been actively divesting older assets; during the September 2025 quarter, Mesa closed on the sales of 9 surplus CRJ-900 airframes for gross proceeds of $19.6 million, followed by sales of another 12 surplus CRJ-900 airframes post-quarter for gross proceeds of $19.1 million. The final CRJ-900 revenue flight occurred on February 28, 2025, signaling a complete transition away from that airframe type.

Establishing a foreign operating base in the Canadian or Mexican regional market would utilize the existing E-175 fleet, though the current network already serves destinations in Mexico and Canada under the United Express brand. The European regional market development, previously planned via a joint venture called Flite, faced significant delays, with operations estimated to be about 15 months behind the initial 2021 target. The focus on government or military transport contracts represents an opportunity to utilize any excess capacity, especially considering the Q3 2025 reported net loss of $14.1 million, which necessitates maximizing revenue-generating utilization across the fleet.

Here's a look at the fleet transition and asset disposition relevant to market development:

The pursuit of new market opportunities is framed by the following operational and financial realities:

• Total operating revenues for the September 2025 quarter were $90.7 million.
• Contract revenue for Q3 2025 was $66.0 million.
• Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents stood at $38.7 million as of September 30, 2025.
• The company operated at a 100.00% controllable completion factor for United in Q1 2025.
• The United E-175 utilization target for the June 2025 quarter was 9.8 block hours per day.
• The initial DHL cargo contract was a five-year term.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) could evolve its offerings, even as it navigates a major corporate change, like the merger completion with Republic Airways Holdings Inc. on November 25, 2025.

The current operational footprint as of the fiscal year 2025 reporting periods shows a focus on the existing large-jet segment under the United Airlines, Inc. capacity purchase agreement (CPA).

The move to larger aircraft like the Airbus A220 would involve a significant capital outlay, contrasting with recent asset sales. Mesa Air Group closed on sales of 13 spare GE-J85 engines and 9 surplus CRJ-900 airframes in the September 2025 quarter for gross proceeds of $19.6 million.

The dedicated cargo segment, previously serving DHL Express, has been wound down. Mesa and DHL mutually agreed to cease cargo operations as of February 2024. Pilots from that operation transitioned to the E-175 fleet.

Regarding pilot development, actions taken in July 2024, including the furlough of 12 pilots and training deferrals for 41 pilot trainees, were anticipated to save approximately $750,000 per month in operating expenses. Flight operations expense in Q1 2025 reflected decreases due to decreases in pilot training costs.

Justifying higher contract rates on the E-175 fleet has seen some success. Mesa Air Group reported that Q1 2025 revenue decreases were partially offset by higher E-175 block-hour rates. Aircraft utilization was planned to reach 9.8 block hours per day by March 2025, a 10% increase from the fourth calendar quarter of 2024 average of 8.9 block hours per day.

For predictive maintenance, the broader market value in 2025 is approximately $8 billion, projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12% through 2033.

• Q1 2025 Total operating revenues: $103.2 million.
• Q3 2025 Total operating revenues: $90.7 million.
• Q1 2025 Net loss: $114.6 million.
• Q3 2025 Net loss: $14.1 million.
• Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025: $54.1 million.
• Deferred revenue balance as of March 31, 2025: $15.3 million.
• Pilot training cost reduction contributed to a flight operations expense decrease of $16.5 million (or 31.9%) in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how Mesa Air Group, Inc. could pivot beyond its core regional Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA) flying, which as of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, saw the company operate a fleet of 60 Embraer 175 ('E-175') regional aircraft, generating total operating revenues of $90.7 million for that quarter.

Launch a new Part 135 charter operation using smaller, unutilized aircraft to serve high-net-worth individuals.

• Mesa Air Group, Inc. currently operates charter flights when its aircraft are not needed for scheduled service.
• The company also has contracts with the U.S. Postal Service for carriage of mail to the cities it serves.
• As of the September 2025 quarter, Mesa Airlines operated as United Express under a CPA with United Airlines, Inc.

Initiate commercial operations with the ordered Heart Aerospace ES-30 electric aircraft on new, short-haul, unserved routes.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. reconfirmed its order for the ES-30 hybrid-electric craft, which replaces the previous ES-19 order. The ES-30 is designed as a 30-seat regional airplane.

Establish a separate maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) business to service third-party regional aircraft.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. provides a comprehensive range of MRO services, which it showcased at the MRO Europe 2025 Exhibition in London on October 17, 2025. The company's MRO offerings include:

• Aircraft Maintenance
• Workshops
• Technical training programs
• Logistics & procurement
• Integrated services
• Engineering consulting

Acquire a small, non-scheduled air freight carrier to immediately expand market access beyond the CPA model.

The CPA model remains central, as Mesa Airlines secured a new ten-year CPA with United Airlines as part of its merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc., which closed on November 25, 2025. The combined entity, trading under RJET, will have a fleet of over 310 Embraer E-Jets supporting more than 1,300 daily departures. Mesa shareholders will own between 6% and 12% of the combined company.

Invest in and operate a drone-based logistics service for last-mile delivery in a new, non-airline market.

• Mesa Air Group, Inc. participated in discussions regarding the development and certification of drones at the MRO Europe 2024 conference.
• The company's Q3 FY2025 results showed total debt of $95.2 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $315.2 million as of September 30, 2024.
• Adjusted pre-tax profit of $2.2 million generated from United E-175 operations was offset by $3.9 million of parked CRJ-900 aircraft and other non E-175 expenses in the September 2025 quarter.