On Holding AG (ONON): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at On Holding AG's growth blueprint, and honestly, the strategy they're laying out is crystal clear: they aren't just running; they're sprinting across all four Ansoff quadrants, even if the final fiscal year 2025 numbers aren't public yet. The plan shows a dual focus: doubling down at home-pushing US market share from ~10% to 15% and growing apparel revenue to 20% of the total-while simultaneously making big bets abroad, like planting over 100 retail points in China by the end of 2026. This defintely isn't just about selling more CloudTec shoes in existing spots; it's a calculated move into pro tennis, high-end cycling, and even wellness centers, which tells me management is serious about building a diversified, global athletic powerhouse. Let's break down exactly how these moves map to near-term risk and reward below.

On Holding AG (ONON) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how On Holding AG can drive more revenue from its existing product lines in the markets it already serves. This is about selling more shoes and apparel to the customers you already have or can easily reach.

The goal to increase US market share from a stated target of 15% in premium running footwear is ambitious. For context, as of 2020, On Holding AG held approximately 6.6% of the performance running shoe category in the United States, which was its biggest single market then.

The core of this strategy is shifting volume to the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel. This move captures a greater margin on every existing product sold. The momentum is clear in the 2025 figures:

For the second quarter of 2025, net sales through the DTC channel surged by 47.2% year-over-year, or 54.3% in constant currency. This channel mix has been climbing; for Q3 2025, the DTC share hit 39.6% of total net sales, up from 38.8% the prior year. Compare that to Q1 2025, where the DTC share was 38.1% of total net sales. This channel shift directly supports margin expansion; the Gross Margin for Q2 2025 improved to 61.5% from 59.9% a year ago. The full-year 2025 guidance for Gross Margin is set between 60.5% and 61.0%.

To convert existing casual runners into loyal, multi-product customers, look at the apparel performance. This shows customers are buying more than just footwear. In Q3 2025, the apparel segment saw net sales increase by 75.5% at constant exchange rates, which management attributed to repeat transactions and strong brand loyalty. This follows strong growth in Q2 2025, where apparel sales were up 67.5% (reported) or 75.5% (constant currency).

While specific data on limited-time bundles to increase Average Transaction Value (ATV) isn't public, the overall financial results for 2025 show top-line strength. For instance, Q3 2025 net sales reached CHF 794.4 million, a 24.9% year-over-year increase. The company is confident enough in its execution to raise its full-year 2025 net sales guidance to at least 31% growth (constant currency), implying revenue of at least CHF 2.91 billion.

Deepening partnerships with specialty running stores is managed through the wholesale channel, which still represents the majority of sales but is growing slower than DTC. Here's a look at the channel mix and growth rates from recent quarters:

The strategy involves leveraging these physical touchpoints for brand reinforcement. The company's retail network is expanding across global cities like Zurich, Tokyo, and Palo Alto, which act as major traffic drivers for both online and in-store engagement. This physical presence helps support the premium positioning, which is key to achieving the desired market share growth.

To execute on the Market Penetration strategy, On Holding AG is focusing on several key operational levers:

• Increase US market share in premium running footwear from the last reported figure of 6.6% (2020 performance running shoe category) toward the 15% goal.
• Grow DTC sales channel share above the Q3 2025 level of 39.6% to capture higher gross margins, which reached 61.5% in Q2 2025.
• Drive repeat purchases, evidenced by apparel sales growth of 75.5% in Q3 2025 (constant currency).
• Utilize physical retail expansion in cities like Palo Alto and Tokyo as traffic drivers for omnichannel sales.
• Maintain strong wholesale growth, which was 23.1% in Q2 2025, to ensure broad product availability.

Finance: draft the 13-week cash view by Friday, focusing on inventory levels to support the planned 31% constant currency sales growth guidance for the full year.

On Holding AG (ONON) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how On Holding AG is taking its existing, successful performance running shoes and apparel into new geographic territories. This is the Market Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix, and the numbers from 2024 show they've already built serious momentum to fund this push.

For context, full-year 2024 net sales hit CHF 2,318.3 million, a reported growth of 29.4% over 2023, with a strong gross profit margin of 60.6%. This financial strength supports aggressive geographic expansion, with 2025 guidance projecting net sales of at least CHF 2.94 billion.

The strategy involves several distinct market entries:

• Aggressively enter the Chinese market, aiming for 100+ new retail points of presence by end of 2026.
• Focus existing performance running shoes on new, high-growth markets like Brazil and India.
• Adapt existing lifestyle footwear for regional preferences in Southeast Asia, using current product molds.
• Establish a dedicated e-commerce platform and localized marketing for the Middle East region.
• Target the collegiate sports market in Europe with existing team-wear and running shoe models.

The Asia-Pacific region is already a massive success story, which validates the focus on new Asian markets. Full-year 2024 net sales in Asia-Pacific surged by 84.5%. Even more telling was the fourth quarter of 2024, where Asia-Pacific sales grew by an astonishing 117.5% to reach CHF 74.1 million.

The physical retail expansion is concrete. On Holding AG had 49 stores globally as of mid-2025, and the plan is to open 20 to 25 new stores annually. Management estimates this physical growth could contribute a 10% incremental rise in revenue. This physical build-out supports the push into markets like China, even as manufacturing output there stagnated in November 2025, according to the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI.

For the other targeted markets, we see different dynamics. In India, which is a focus for existing performance shoes, roughly half of surveyed consumers research products on social media before buying, suggesting a strong digital-first approach is needed. Conversely, new export work declined in Brazil in November 2025, indicating potential headwinds for immediate wholesale growth there.

Here's a look at the 2024 regional performance that sets the stage for 2025's Market Development efforts:

The strategy in Europe, targeting the collegiate market with existing products, is set against a backdrop where Eurozone growth has been disappointing, though policy is turning positive for the region heading into 2026. The Middle East push relies heavily on a dedicated e-commerce platform, which aligns with the company's overall DTC success, as DTC sales grew 40.3% in 2024, reaching CHF 942.8 million.

The company's financial health is strong enough to absorb these market entry costs; cash and cash equivalents stood at CHF 924.3 million at the end of 2024. Finance: draft the cash flow impact of opening the planned 20 to 25 new stores in the first half of 2026 by next Tuesday.

On Holding AG (ONON) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how On Holding AG can drive growth by introducing entirely new products into its existing markets, which is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This strategy relies on the strength of the On brand and its core technology, like CloudTec.

For 2025, On Holding AG has raised its full-year net sales guidance to at least CHF 2.98 billion at current spot rates, expecting at least 34% growth year-over-year on a constant currency basis, as of mid-November 2025. This overall growth target supports ambitious product expansion plans.

The focus here is on expanding categories beyond the core running shoe business, which saw net sales growth of 32.9% in Q3 2024 on a constant currency basis, while apparel grew 39.8% in the same period.

Here are the specific product development initiatives:

• Introduce a new, ultra-cushioned road running shoe line to compete directly with max-cushion rivals.
• Expand the apparel line to represent 20% of total revenue, up from a current estimated 10-15%.
• Develop a dedicated, high-performance hiking and trail boot collection, leveraging existing CloudTec technology.
• Launch a new, sustainably-focused footwear collection using 50%+ recycled materials.
• Create a specialized line of recovery sandals and slides for post-run and casual wear.

The apparel segment is already showing strong momentum; in Q3 2025, apparel sales grew 86.9% reported, with the category representing about 8% of total sales, which is a clear indicator of the potential to hit the 20% revenue target. This compares to the 10-15% range you mentioned as the current estimate, suggesting the 8% figure from Q3 2025 is the more recent baseline to aim from.

The company's Q3 2025 performance showed net sales of CHF 794.4 million. If apparel were to hit 20% of the raised FY 2025 guidance of CHF 2.98 billion, that would equate to CHF 596 million in apparel revenue, a substantial increase from the CHF 63.5 million implied by an 8% share of Q3 2025 sales (CHF 794.4 million 0.08 = CHF 63.55 million in Q3 alone, which is unlikely, so we must look at annual figures).

Looking at the full-year 2024 data, apparel sales grew 82.5% on a constant currency basis for the full year. The company surpassed CHF 100 million in apparel net sales for the full year 2024. To reach 20% of the projected CHF 2.98 billion in 2025 net sales, apparel revenue needs to be approximately CHF 596 million.

The development of new, specialized footwear lines-max-cushion road, trail/hiking, and recovery-will require significant investment, but the company's strong liquidity position supports this. Cash and cash equivalents stood at CHF 871.8 million at the end of Q1 2025, decreasing from CHF 924.3 million at the end of 2024. Operating cash flow in Q3 2025 was CHF 157.3 million.

The table below summarizes key financial context relevant to supporting these product development investments:

The development of a sustainably-focused line using 50%+ recycled materials aligns with the company's premium execution strategy, which has driven the gross profit margin up to 65.7% in Q3 2025. The focus on premium, full-price sales, which helped achieve a 60.6% gross profit margin for the full year 2024, is key to funding these new, potentially higher-cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) product introductions.

The new trail boot collection directly addresses market segments where On is gaining traction; for instance, the Asia-Pacific region saw sales surge by 101.3% year-over-year in constant currency in Q2 2025. This geographical growth provides a ready market for new outdoor-focused products.

The ultra-cushioned road shoe line is a direct response to competitive pressures, especially as the U.S. running shoe market grew to $7.4 billion over the past three years. The success of the Cloudsurfer Max, mentioned as having strong early sell-through, validates the strategy for max-cushion entry.

You need to track the initial sales velocity of these new lines against the overall CHF 2.98 billion target for 2025.

On Holding AG (ONON) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how On Holding AG can move beyond its core running market, which is a smart way to think about long-term value creation, especially when the company is already showing massive momentum in its current segments.

On Holding AG is already executing on some of these diversification plays, particularly by expanding into new sports communities. For instance, the company has explicitly stated key growth strategies include entering new communities like tennis and training. This is happening while the company projects full-year 2025 reported net sales to reach approximately CHF 2.98 billion.

The success in scaling existing product categories provides a strong financial foundation for these leaps. Look at the apparel category's performance in Q3 2025; net sales for apparel increased by 86.9% year-over-year, hitting CHF 50.1 million. On a constant currency basis, that apparel growth was 100.2%. This demonstrates the ability to drive significant revenue from a category that isn't footwear.

Here's a look at how existing growth engines compare to the potential scale of these new ventures, using the latest reported figures:

Entering the professional tennis market with a new collection would leverage the existing premium brand equity, which is currently delivering a Q3 2025 gross profit margin of 65.7%. The company's overall gross profit margin guidance for the full year 2025 is now around 62.5%, showing strong pricing power that could be applied to a new, technical line.

Acquiring a fitness technology company would be an investment to enhance product features. In 2023, On Holding AG invested $16.5 million in Research and Development, which is a good reference point for the potential capital outlay for a strategic tech bolt-on. The company's current cash and cash equivalents stood at CHF 961.8 million as of Q3 2025, providing ample liquidity for such a move.

Developing a line of premium, technical cycling apparel and footwear targets a market where On Holding AG already has a foothold in apparel growth. The company is aiming for an apparel share of over 10% of overall net sales in the long term, beyond its 2026 targets. The 2026 financial ambition is to double net sales from 2023 levels to at least CHF 3.55 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin target exceeding 18%.

Launching a new, non-athletic, premium luggage and travel gear brand under a separate umbrella would be a true diversification away from sports. This would test the brand's ability to command premium pricing outside its established domain. For context, the company's Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel net sales in Q3 2025 were CHF 314.7 million, growing 27.6% reported, showing strong direct customer relationships that could support a new brand launch.

Establishing a chain of branded wellness and recovery centers introduces a service revenue component, which is entirely new. Currently, the company's operating income for the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ending September 2025 was CHF 347 million, based on TTM revenue of CHF 2,877 million. Any service revenue stream would need to be scaled carefully against this product-centric financial base.

Finance: draft a sensitivity analysis on the impact of a 500 basis point margin compression on the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target by Wednesday.