Potbelly Corporation (PBPB): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Potbelly Corporation's strategy to nail that raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $34.0 million to $35.0 million, and honestly, the path forward is laid out clearly in the Ansoff Matrix. After two decades analyzing growth plays, I can tell you this framework simplifies the complexity: they are simultaneously pushing same-store sales up by 2.0% to 3.0% while aggressively targeting 38 new shops via franchising this year. This isn't guesswork; it's a clear, four-bucket roadmap for expansion, covering everything from boosting digital sales past 41% to exploring entirely new revenue streams like retail products. You need to see the concrete actions in each quadrant below to truly grasp the near-term opportunities and risks.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Potbelly Corporation is digging deeper into its current customer base and existing markets, which is the heart of Market Penetration. The focus here is on driving more sales from the shops you already have open today.

Potbelly Corporation is targeting a full-year 2025 same-store sales growth in the range of 2.0% to 3.0%. This is the primary metric for success in this quadrant. You saw strong momentum in the second quarter of 2025, where company-operated same-store sales increased by 3.2% year-over-year. Honestly, a good chunk of that recent lift came from optimizing pricing and value layers, which helped boost the average check.

Digital is a huge lever for this strategy. Potbelly Corporation is pushing to increase digital sales penetration beyond the level achieved in Q2 2025, which was reported at over 41% of total shop sales. The Perks loyalty program is central to this, aiming to capture more of those digital transactions directly through Potbelly-owned channels rather than third-party apps. In fact, in Q1 2025, digital channels accounted for over 42% of total shop sales, showing the program has strong traction.

Here's a quick look at some of the operational numbers from Q2 2025 that show the impact of these penetration efforts:

To capture more existing business-to-business demand, Potbelly Corporation is actively looking to expand its catering and bulk order services. This means getting more volume from current corporate clients and local offices within established trade areas, leveraging the existing store network.

On the local traffic front, the plan involves using geo-fencing and targeted digital ads. The goal here is tactical: pull local traffic away from competitors right in the neighborhoods where Potbelly Corporation already has a presence. This is about maximizing the share of wallet from the immediate vicinity of each shop.

• Drive same-store sales growth toward the 2.0% to 3.0% full-year 2025 target.
• Increase digital sales penetration using the Perks loyalty program beyond 41% in Q2 2025.
• Optimize pricing to boost average check, contributing to the 3.2% same-store sales growth seen in Q2 2025.
• Expand catering and bulk order services for existing B2B demand.
• Use geo-fencing and targeted digital ads in established trade areas.

The full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains in the $34 million to $35 million range, showing that these sales growth initiatives are expected to flow through to profitability.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Potbelly Corporation plans to take its existing sandwich concept into new geographic areas, which is the core of Market Development in the Ansoff Matrix. This strategy relies heavily on accelerating franchise agreements to enter markets where the brand isn't yet a staple.

The Franchise Growth Acceleration Initiative is set to open at least 38 new shops in 2025, driven primarily by franchise partners. This is complemented by the company's plan to add another layer to growth by opening about 20 company-owned restaurants annually starting in late Fiscal Year 2025 in existing high-volume markets. The long-term vision remains clear: reaching a total of 2,000 shops across the U.S., with at least 85% of those locations being franchised. As of the September 10, 2025 announcement, Potbelly Corporation had more than 445 company and franchise-owned shops open.

To facilitate this expansion into untapped areas, Potbelly is deploying a new, smaller shop prototype. This design measures 1,800-square-foot, which is 500 square feet smaller than the traditional store format. The intent here is to lower both construction and lease costs, making new market entry more financially viable for franchisees.

The focus for franchise recruitment is definitely on multi-unit operators who can handle significant territory development. An example of this focus is the Potbelly 50/50 Large Area Developer Incentive Program, which rewards franchisees who sign an agreement to open at least 15 Potbelly units in eight years or less with potential reductions in franchise fees, deposit fees, and royalty fees.

Market targeting for new U.S. penetration includes specific announcements for franchise opportunities in markets like Omaha, NE. The company also recently secured an agreement to enter Georgia with 15 new shops planned for the greater Atlanta area.

Regarding international moves, while the primary focus is U.S. franchise expansion, the company has historical precedent for international operations, including existing franchise development agreements in Ontario, Canada. Exploring initial international franchising, perhaps starting with a low-risk, nearby market like Canada, aligns with the brand's history of utilizing franchise partners for global reach.

Here's a snapshot of the unit growth context:

The Market Development plan involves several key operational considerations for new market entry:

• Targeting multi-unit operators for development agreements.
• Utilizing the 1,800-square-foot prototype to reduce real estate friction.
• Focusing on new U.S. markets like Omaha, NE.
• Leveraging franchise incentives for faster build-out schedules.
• Exploring initial international franchising, building on past Canadian presence.

The required financial qualifications for new multi-unit candidates include a $1 million minimum net worth and $500,000 minimum liquidity. The initial franchise fee for the first shop is $40,000.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) is pushing new products to grow its business, which is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This means taking what you know and making it better or new for your existing customer base.

Potbelly Corporation is introducing new, high-margin limited-time-offerings (LTOs) to get people in the door. The successful Prime Rib Steak Sandwich is a prime example of this strategy. This premium item is priced between $14 and $18, giving customers a higher-tier option compared to the core menu items.

The company is heavily invested in technology to support these new offerings and improve efficiency. The Digital Kitchen platform system is slated for a system-wide rollout by the end of 2026. This system includes kitchen display systems, an upgraded POS, and back-of-house workflow tools, designed to improve order accuracy and throughput.

Expansion of the core menu is also happening in high-demand areas. For instance, the Chili Mac was supported as a new menu item alongside the LTOs. To keep the everyday value proposition strong, Potbelly continues to offer options like the pick-your-pair and skinny combos, which are priced around $8.

Enhancing the digital experience is key, especially as off-premise sales grow. The mobile app and website were redesigned in June (2025) to smooth out the digital ordering journey. This focus is paying off: digital channels accounted for 41% of total shop sales in the second quarter of 2025, which was an increase of 200 basis points year-over-year for that quarter.

To lift the average ticket size for digital and carryout orders, Potbelly Corporation is focusing on value-added options, which can include meal bundles or family packs, though specific sales data for these bundles isn't publicly broken out yet. The overall goal is to convert demand into higher average transaction values.

Here are some key operational and financial metrics that frame the impact of these product and digital initiatives as of the second quarter of 2025:

• Digital sales penetration reached 41% of total revenue in Q2 2025.
• Restaurant-level margins improved to 16.7% in Q2 2025, up from 15.7%.
• Average Weekly Sales (AWS) per unit stood at $27,040 in Q2 2025.
• The company signed 54 new franchise shop commitments in Q2 2025.

The financial context surrounding these product development efforts shows momentum:

The focus on menu innovation, like the steak sandwich, and digital platform upgrades is clearly tied to the goal of increasing profitability and unit volume. Finance: draft the projected impact of the full Digital Kitchen rollout on Q4 2026 throughput by next Tuesday.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) as it explores growth beyond its core sandwich shops, which is the Diversification quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This means new products in new markets, which carries a higher risk but potentially higher reward than its current focus on franchise acceleration.

Consider the financial backdrop as of mid-2025. For the second quarter ended June 29, 2025, Potbelly Corporation reported total revenues of $123.7 million, up 3.4% year-over-year from $119.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA for that quarter hit $9.6 million, a 13.0% increase from the prior year's comparable quarter. The company's stock price was hovering around $12 in August 2025, having seen a high of $13 and a low of $7 during the year. The revenue for the trailing twelve months ending June 29, 2025, stood at $469.14 million, representing a -1.72% change year-over-year.

The most significant move in this space is the announced acquisition, which is a direct form of diversification by acquiring a new concept. Potbelly Corporation announced in September 2025 that it would be acquired by RaceTrac in a transaction valued at approximately $566 million, with an offer price of $17.12 per share. This transaction itself represents an immediate entry into a new segment or ownership structure, depending on RaceTrac's strategy post-close.

For the other diversification avenues, we can look at existing digital strength as a foundation for new digital-only ventures:

• Digital sales penetration reached 41% of total revenue in the second quarter of 2025.
• The total open and committed shop count stood at 816 as of June 29, 2025.
• The company signed 40 new franchise shop commitments in the first quarter of 2025 alone.

The potential for developing branded retail products or licensing frozen sandwiches is supported by the existing menu strength, such as the introduction of the Prime Rib Steak Sandwich, and the overall digital focus, which was over 42% of sales in Q1 2025. The full-year 2025 guidance reiterated expectations for at least 38 new unit openings and adjusted EBITDA between $33 million and $34 million.

The creation of smaller, express-format kiosks would align with the reported strategy of introducing smaller footprints to reduce building costs for franchisees.

Here is a summary of key operational and financial metrics relevant to assessing the capacity for diversification:

The company's focus on franchising, with 70% of franchisees actively growing locations in 2025, suggests a model that could support licensing or rapid expansion of new concepts through experienced partners.