Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Cassava Sciences, Inc.'s portfolio in late 2025, and honestly, the picture is pretty stark following the failure of their main Alzheimer's program. We've mapped their assets using the BCG Matrix, and what you'll see is a company with no Stars and zero product revenue, sitting on a clear Dog-the discontinued simufilam AD trials-while betting its remaining $92 million to $96 million cash balance on a single, early-stage Question Mark for TSC. Let's cut through the noise and see exactly where the capital is going now.

Background of Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA)

You're looking at Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) as of late 2025, and the first thing you need to know is that the company has fundamentally changed its direction. Cassava Sciences, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotech firm based in Austin, Texas, focused on developing novel treatments for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. That focus, however, has recently narrowed significantly after a major strategic pivot.

The company's lead investigational product candidate is simufilam, a proprietary oral small molecule designed to target the filamin A protein. This drug was previously the centerpiece of their Alzheimer's disease program, which involved two Phase 3 trials, REFOCUS-ALZ and RETHINK-ALZ. Anyway, both of those Phase 3 studies failed to meet their co-primary endpoints, leading Cassava Sciences, Inc. to completely discontinue the Alzheimer's disease program by the end of the second quarter of 2025.

So, where is the investment focus now? Cassava Sciences, Inc. is now concentrating simufilam on Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. This move followed a license agreement with Yale University for the intellectual property rights for this rare disease indication. Preclinical work showed promising data, specifically a 60% reduction in seizure frequency in mouse models for TSC-related epilepsy. The company is now preparing for a proof-of-concept clinical study, which they aim to start in the first half of 2026.

Financially, you'll see the impact of this transition in the recent reports. For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Cassava Sciences, Inc. reported a net loss of $10.8 million, which is a definite improvement from the $27.9 million net loss reported in the same period of 2024. The second quarter of 2025 included a one-time, non-recurring charge of a $31.25 million estimated loss contingency related to a securities litigation settlement, which heavily impacted that quarter's results.

The balance sheet remains solid, which is critical for a pre-revenue biotech. As of September 30, 2025, Cassava Sciences, Inc. held $106.1 million in cash and cash equivalents, and importantly, they report having no debt. Management projects that the cash position will land between $92 to $96 million by the end of 2025, a figure they believe is sufficient to support operations into 2027. Research and development expenses have dropped sharply-Q3 2025 R&D was only $4.0 million, a 78% decrease year-over-year, largely because the expensive Alzheimer's program concluded.

To be fair, there are still regulatory hurdles; the FDA recently requested additional information regarding the investigational new drug application for simufilam in the TSC indication. As of mid-November 2025, the total shares outstanding stood at 48.3 million.

Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) - BCG Matrix: Stars

Cassava Sciences, Inc. has no products in the Stars quadrant as of 2025. This quadrant is reserved for offerings with high market share in a high-growth market, which requires an approved, revenue-generating asset.

No approved drug candidates exist for Cassava Sciences, Inc. to capture high market share in a high-growth market. The company is currently focused on advancing its investigational asset, simufilam, into a new indication.

The primary asset, simufilam, is not yet generating revenue or market share. The company reported zero revenue, reflecting its status as a clinical-stage entity focused purely on development and research. The prior focus on Alzheimer's disease development was completely discontinued by the end of the second quarter of 2025.

All capital is currently allocated to Research and Development (R&D) and General and Administrative (G&A), not to scaling a successful product. This cash burn profile is typical of a Question Mark or an early-stage venture, not a Star which generates significant cash flow.

Here's the quick math on the capital deployment for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, showing where the cash is going instead of supporting market dominance:

The focus is entirely on future potential, not current market leadership. The company expects to initiate the first clinical study for simufilam in Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy in the first half of 2026.

The financial stability, while strong for a development-stage company, is maintained by conserving existing capital rather than reinvesting product profits. This cash position is what allows the company to fund its R&D activities without immediate revenue generation.

• Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025: $106.1 million.
• Estimated cash at year-end 2025: Range of $92 to $96 million.
• Projected cash runway: Expected to support operations into 2027.
• Total common shares outstanding as of November 10, 2025: 48.3 million.
• R&D expenses decreased 78% year-over-year for Q3 2025.

Stars require investment to maintain market share; Cassava Sciences, Inc. is investing to gain initial market entry, which is a different strategic imperative. If simufilam for TSC-related epilepsy proves successful and gains approval, it would transition from a Question Mark to a potential Star, assuming the market for that indication is high-growth.

Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at the Cash Cows quadrant of the Boston Consulting Group Matrix for Cassava Sciences, Inc. as of 2025. Honestly, for a company in the biotech space focused on investigational treatments, this quadrant is typically where you'd find mature, market-leading drugs generating steady, predictable income. That's not the picture we see here.

Cassava Sciences has no products in the Cash Cows quadrant as of 2025. This is expected, as the company is pre-commercial, meaning it is still deep in the research and development phase for its pipeline assets, primarily simufilam for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. A Cash Cow needs high market share in a mature market, which Cassava Sciences has not achieved yet.

The financial reality reflects this early-stage status. The company reported $0 in product revenue for the 2025 fiscal year. Instead of milking established products, Cassava Sciences is consuming capital to fund its pipeline advancement, which is the opposite of a cash cow's function.

Here's the quick math on the operational performance through the third quarter of 2025:

• Operations resulted in a net loss of $10.8 million for Q3 2025 alone.
• The net loss for the first nine months of 2025 was significantly higher at $78.43 million, compared to a net income of $3.26 million for the same period in 2024.
• The company is a net cash user, with an estimated cash burn-net cash used in operations-of $22.5 million in the first nine months of 2025.

The focus remains entirely on investment, not passive cash generation. For instance, R&D expenses for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, were $4.0 million, and General and administrative (G&A) expenses were $7.9 million for that same quarter. These expenditures are necessary to support the advancement of simufilam toward a clinical study expected to begin in the first half of 2026.

To give you a clearer view of the financial position supporting these operations, here are the key balance sheet and operational figures as of the end of Q3 2025:

Cash cows are the units that fund the rest of the business, but for Cassava Sciences, Inc., the current cash position is what supports the Question Marks (the pipeline assets). The company expects its existing cash to support operations into 2027. Still, the burn rate dictates that management must maintain strategic expense management to preserve this runway.

Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

You're looking at the portfolio, and the Alzheimer's Disease (AD) development program for simufilam clearly falls into the Dog quadrant for Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA). This designation stems from its low market share-zero, given the program's status-and its low growth prospects, which have now terminated. Honestly, expensive turn-around plans aren't even on the table here; the company has made the definitive choice to minimize this unit.

The core reason for this classification is the failure of the late-stage clinical work. The two Phase 3 trials, RETHINK-ALZ and REFOCUS-ALZ, both failed to demonstrate the necessary therapeutic benefit. Here's a quick look at the scope of those efforts, which now represent sunk costs:

The results from these trials were unambiguous, showing no treatment benefit for patients with mild-to-moderate AD. So, Cassava Sciences officially announced that the entire AD development program for simufilam was being phased out, with the official discontinuation expected by the end of the second quarter of 2025. This means the company no longer has any late-stage candidate in that specific pipeline area.

Plus, you have to account for non-productive cash drains that tie up capital that could be used elsewhere, like the pivot to Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. A significant item here is the $31.25 million estimated loss contingency Cassava Sciences recorded in the second quarter of 2025 related to the potential settlement of certain securities litigation. This amount is a clear cash trap, as it represents an expected outflow for a non-core, non-productive liability, rather than an investment in future growth. For context, the General and administrative expenses in Q2 2025 included this $31.25 million contingency, compared to a $40.0 million SEC-related loss contingency recorded in 2024. You'll defintely want to track the final settlement amount.

The operational impact of this Dog is visible in the financials as of June 30, 2025:

• Research and development expenses for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, were $5.1 million.
• This represented a 66% decrease compared to the $15.2 million in the same period in 2024.
• The decrease was primarily due to the phase out of the AD program, which was completed in the second quarter of 2025.
• Cash and cash equivalents stood at $112.4 million as of June 30, 2025.

Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

You're looking at Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA)'s portfolio, and the Question Mark quadrant is dominated by a single, high-stakes asset. This is where high growth potential meets unproven market penetration, consuming cash while waiting for a breakout moment. For Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA), this is all about the strategic pivot into a new therapeutic area.

The sole Question Mark for Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) is Simufilam for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. This represents a clear strategic pivot away from the prior Alzheimer's disease focus, targeting a rare disease market that, if successful, offers high potential growth and premium pricing power. Honestly, this is the company's big bet right now.

This drug candidate has zero market share in this new indication because it's still in the very early development stages. The current status is early pre-clinical/IND stage, meaning the heavy lifting of proving safety and initial efficacy in humans hasn't even started yet. The proof-of-concept clinical study is not anticipated to begin until the first half of 2026, making this a high-risk, high-reward proposition. You should note that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requested additional information for the Investigational New Drug (IND) application in late November 2025, which adds a minor near-term hurdle to that 2026 timeline.

The potential upside is tied to the unmet need in this rare condition. TSC affects approximately 50,000 individuals in the U.S. Preclinical data, built on work showing simufilam alleviated neuronal abnormalities and reduced seizure frequency by 60% compared to vehicle in a mouse model, supports the high-growth narrative. Still, the reality is that until you get clinical proof, it's a pure option value play.

Here's the quick math on the investment required to move this asset forward, contrasted with the current financial buffer:

The company's cash balance of approximately $92 million to $96 million at year-end 2025 is the resource funding this high-risk Question Mark. This cash position, which is down from $106.1 million at the end of the third quarter of 2025, must also cover general operations and a significant contingent liability. You've got to keep an eye on the burn rate, especially with that $31.25 million estimated loss contingency related to securities litigation hanging over the balance sheet. If this program doesn't gain traction quickly, the cash burn will accelerate, and this Question Mark risks turning into a Dog.

The core strategic considerations for this Question Mark are clear:

• Invest heavily to gain market share quickly.
• Focus on meeting the FDA requirements to start the H1 2026 study.
• Manage cash runway against the $31.25 million litigation risk.
• Leverage new board expertise for clinical guidance.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.