Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc.'s (SMLR) strategy, and honestly, it's a tale of two businesses right now. We've got the core healthcare play, where they need to juice QuantaFlo utilization-with 76% of their Q2 2025 revenue coming from just two customers-while simultaneously trying to offset that $8.2 million Q2 healthcare revenue decline with new diagnostics like the heart failure aid. But the real headline is the diversification: they are aggressively pushing to acquire 10,000 BTC by year-end 2025, effectively positioning the equity as a Bitcoin vehicle. This matrix lays out exactly how they plan to manage the near-term risk in diagnostics while funding that bold, dual-powered bet.

Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Semler Scientific, Inc. can squeeze more revenue out of its existing customer base and current testing market, which is Market Penetration in the Ansoff Matrix. This is crucial right now, especially with the headwinds from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reimbursement changes.

Increase QuantaFlo utilization among the top two customers who comprised 76% of Q2 2025 revenue.

The immediate focus has to be on the largest accounts. For the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, Semler Scientific reported total revenues of $8.2 million. Critically, the two largest customers accounted for a combined 76% of that Q2 2025 revenue, specifically one customer at 45% and another at 31%. Driving deeper utilization here is the fastest path to offsetting external revenue pressure. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises, so speed matters.

Offer volume-based discounts to existing insurance plan clients to counter the CMS-driven revenue decline.

The need for this is clear from the recent past. In 2024, Semler Scientific's revenues declined by 17.44%, which equated to a $11.89 million drop, directly due to the CMS decision regarding non-severe Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) patients. The company posted a loss from operations of $2.1 million in Q2 2025, showing that cost control and revenue stability are paramount. Volume-based incentives can lock in usage commitments before the full effect of the CMS transition period ends in 2026.

Deepen integration of QuantaFlo data into Electronic Health Records (EHRs) for workflow efficiency.

Workflow efficiency is what keeps the device running in the office. This strategy is about making the test a seamless part of the daily routine, not an add-on task. The company is also building out its healthcare initiatives through its wholly owned subsidiary, CardioVanta™, which focuses on early detection of heart failure and cardiac arrhythmia.

Target primary care physicians (PCPs) for in-office PAD testing to capture patients not seen by specialists.

Expanding beyond the current specialist base into primary care is how you increase the total addressable market for the existing product. This captures the undiagnosed or under-screened population. The QuantaFlo test itself is the core asset here, providing rapid point-of-care testing to measure arterial blood flow.

Launch a focused marketing campaign emphasizing the 91%-92% gross margin efficiency of the QuantaFlo test.

You need to sell the economics of the test, not just the clinical benefit. The company already enjoys an exceptional business model, with gross margins reported around 90%, and some data points suggest impressive gross profit margins of nearly 91%. Highlighting this margin profile-which is software-like-in marketing materials helps justify the value proposition to potential high-volume users.

Here are some key operational and financial numbers from the recent reporting period to frame this penetration strategy:

The market penetration playbook for Semler Scientific, Inc. involves these core actions:

• Drive utilization with the top 76% revenue concentration.
• Use margin strength (nearly 91%) as a sales tool.
• Counter the $11.89 million 2024 revenue loss from CMS.
• Leverage the launch of CardioVanta for new service revenue.
• Expand testing footprint beyond current specialist channels.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at growth paths for Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) outside of just selling more QuantaFlo to the existing customer base. Market Development means taking that FDA-cleared QuantaFlo test, which measures arterial blood flow for PAD diagnosis, and pushing it into new territories or new buyer types.

The financial context for this push is clear: Q3 2025 revenue came in at $7.491 million, marking a 45% decrease year-over-year. Plus, management warned that Q4 2025 revenue could be at least 60% lower than Q3, which definitely puts a spotlight on finding new revenue streams fast.

Here are the numbers reflecting that recent performance context:

The existing customer concentration shows why new markets are critical. Semler Scientific, Inc.'s two largest customers comprised 45% and 31% of Q2 2025 revenues, respectively. Spreading that risk across new regions is key.

Strategies for Market Development:

• Expand QuantaFlo sales into new US regions or states not currently served by the existing sales force.
• Pursue international regulatory clearance (e.g., CE Mark) to enter European or Asian diagnostic markets.
• Target new customer segments like large self-insured employers for employee wellness and risk assessment programs.
• Develop a subscription or 'per-test' pricing model to attract smaller clinics outside the large enterprise customer base.
• Partner with telehealth providers to offer remote PAD screening using the point-of-care device.

For international entry, you should note that Semler Scientific, Inc. is actively pursuing additional regulatory pathways to broaden the use of its monitoring platform across other geographies. The company is also seeking a new 510(k) clearance for expanded indications for QuantaFlo beyond its current PAD use.

Targeting new customer segments involves leveraging the launch of CardioVanta™, the wholly owned subsidiary focused on early detection of heart failure and cardiac arrhythmia. This new focus aligns well with wellness programs for self-insured employers. The company is also exploring options to meet its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation target of 10,000 Bitcoin by Year-End 2025, which suggests a strong need for new, reliable healthcare cash flow.

The shift in focus is also visible in the balance sheet context. The company sold 5,207,036 shares for approximately $203.8 million net proceeds under the April 2025 ATM program by the end of Q3. That capital needs to be deployed into growth, and Market Development is one outlet.

Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Semler Scientific, Inc. plans to develop new offerings to grow its business, which is a key part of the Product Development quadrant in the Ansoff Matrix. The healthcare revenue side definitely needs new traction, especially since the second quarter of 2025 saw revenues drop to \$8.2 million.

The plan centers on leveraging the new subsidiary, CardioVanta, Inc., which was formed in June 2025. This entity is set up to drive future healthcare initiatives. It's structured around a high-margin, software-as-a-service (SAAS) model.

Here are the core actions for this strategy:

• Accelerate the development and launch of new products under the CardioVanta subsidiary.
• Introduce a cardiac arrhythmia monitoring service to the existing customer base of health plans and risk groups.
• Secure the new 510(k) clearance for QuantaFlo to aid in heart failure diagnosis; the goal was previously hoped for by the second half of 2024.
• Invest a portion of the healthcare operating cash flow into R&D for a new chronic disease diagnostic tool beyond cardiovascular.
• Cross-sell the new heart failure diagnostic to existing QuantaFlo customers to stabilize the declining healthcare revenue of \$8.2 million in Q2 2025.

The immediate financial context for this push is clear from the second quarter of 2025 results. You see the pressure on the core business when you look at the operating performance.

The launch of CardioVanta is specifically targeting the multibillion-dollar markets for early detection of heart failure and cardiac arrhythmia monitoring. This is a direct product extension into related, high-potential areas. The existing QuantaFlo test, which measures arterial blood flow and aids in diagnosing peripheral arterial disease (PAD), is the base for this cross-sell effort.

To fund this, Semler Scientific, Inc. is relying on its dual-engine approach. While the healthcare operating cash flow is under pressure, evidenced by the \$2.1 million operating loss in Q2 2025, the company has significant liquidity from its treasury strategy. As of July 31, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. held 5,021 Bitcoins with a fair value of \$586.2 million. The company purchased approximately \$195.4 million of Bitcoin during the quarter and July, funded partly by operating cash flow.

The push for the expanded QuantaFlo indication is critical for marketability. The company has sought a new 510(k) clearance to enable expanded labeling for QuantaFlo as an aid in the diagnosis of other cardiovascular diseases in addition to PAD. This is the product development step that directly feeds the cross-selling goal aimed at stabilizing that \$8.2 million revenue base.

For R&D investment beyond the immediate CardioVanta pipeline, the company is looking at its overall cash position. The total Bitcoin purchase amount from operating cash flow, monetization of a minority investment, and proceeds from offerings was \$475.8 million as of July 31, 2025. Furthermore, the company raised approximately \$194.3 million under a new At The Market (ATM) offering through July 31, 2025, which provides capital flexibility for these growth initiatives.

Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) making a massive pivot, essentially diversifying its core business identity from purely healthcare technology into a 'dual-powered' entity, with Bitcoin as the second, dominant engine. This is diversification into a new asset class and a new investor base.

The aggressive execution of the Bitcoin treasury strategy is central here. The stated goal is to hold 10,000 BTC by year-end 2025. That's a concrete, near-term benchmark for this diversification effort. To support this, Semler Scientific, Inc. has laid out a multi-year accumulation roadmap, which you can see mapped out below.

This strategy is funded through multiple avenues, including cash flows from operations and financing proceeds. A key part of the financing structure is the $500 million At-The-Market (ATM) program, which became effective in April 2025. As of July 31, 2025, the company had raised approximately $194.3 million under this new agreement. That leaves a remaining capacity of a little over $300 million in the $500 million ATM to fund further Bitcoin purchases, which is a substantial war chest for asset accumulation.

This dual-engine approach-healthcare technology and Bitcoin-is designed to attract a different class of institutional financial investors. The company is positioning itself as a 'dual-powered' Bitcoin equity vehicle, hoping to capture capital interested in both the medical device sector and direct, regulated exposure to Bitcoin.

Still, this aggressive asset acquisition needs to be balanced against immediate liabilities. Semler Scientific, Inc. entered into a settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) to resolve False Claims Act allegations. The agreed-upon payment is $29.75 million plus interest at 4.25% per annum from April 28, 2025. To manage this, the company is exploring new financial products, specifically mentioning the possibility of utilizing a collateralized term loan with Coinbase entities to help fund this settlement.

Now, for a truly bold move in this diversification chapter: monetizing the digital asset holdings to support shareholder returns. As of July 31, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. reported holding 5,021 Bitcoins with a fair value of $586.2 million. The aggregate purchase amount for these holdings was $475.8 million. Monetizing a portion of this unrealized gain-which was $110.4 million year-to-date through July 31, 2025-to fund a potential stock buyback program would be a significant capital allocation decision. Honestly, it's a bold signal of confidence in their balance sheet strength, especially when you consider a previous authorization for an up to $20.0 million stock repurchase program was made back in March 2022.

Here are the key financial metrics underpinning this diversification strategy as of the latest reporting date:

• Bitcoin Holdings Fair Value (July 31, 2025): $586.2 million
• Total Bitcoin Held (July 31, 2025): 5,021 BTC
• BTC Yield Year-to-Date (through July 31, 2025): 31.3%
• BTC Dollar Gain Year-to-Date (through July 31, 2025): $84.0 million
• Remaining Capacity in $500 Million ATM Program (as of July 31, 2025): a little over $300 million

Finance: draft the cash flow impact analysis for a hypothetical $50 million Bitcoin monetization for a potential buyback by next Tuesday.