United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're trying to map United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s (UAL) trajectory, and the 2025 outlook is a complex mix of tailwinds and turbulence. While the company projects a strong adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) in the upper range of $9 to $11, external factors like new tariffs, intense Department of Justice (DOJ) scrutiny, and persistent aircraft supply chain woes defintely complicate the flight path. The core opportunity lies in premium demand growth-up 9.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025-but you can't ignore the high financial leverage and the need to fund massive environmental commitments, like the over $200 million Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) fund. Let's dig into the six macro forces that will determine if UAL hits its ambitious targets.

Political Factors: Regulatory Headwinds and Trade Policy

The political landscape is creating both friction and opportunity. On one hand, the new administration is pushing for regulatory loosening, which could clear the path for merger activity down the line. But, you also have the reimposition of tariffs on imported aircraft-like those from Airbus and Embraer-in April 2025, which directly impacts fleet cost and renewal strategy.

Plus, the Department of Justice (DOJ) is keeping a close eye on airline joint ventures and alliances, meaning any strategic moves UAL makes with international partners will face heavy scrutiny. The one clear positive is the focus on modernizing Air Traffic Control (ATC) to address controller shortages, which could finally improve operational efficiency across the board.

• Tariffs are back on the menu.

Economic Factors: Debt, Demand, and Fuel Costs

The headline is strong: UAL's Fiscal Year 2025 adjusted EPS is projected in the upper $9 to $11 range. This is driven by resilient demand, especially in the premium cabin, where revenue was up a solid 9.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025. That premium traveler is the key to margin expansion.

Still, the moderating jet fuel prices, averaging around $86 per barrel in 2025, offer some relief on the cost side. Here's the quick math: UAL is still highly leveraged. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.45 (and an Altman Z-Score of 1.32, indicating financial stress), high debt service is a constant drag on free cash flow, limiting flexibility for major capital deployment outside of existing commitments.

• Debt is the anchor on this flight plan.

Sociological Factors: The Green Traveler and Labor Crisis

Travel demand, particularly for international and long-haul routes, remains strong, which is a huge tailwind for UAL's network. However, the customer expectation for sustainable travel is now a major cost driver, not just a marketing point. This is pushing significant investment in green initiatives.

Also, the labor crises and workforce shortages across the entire aviation sector are forcing up wages and limiting capacity. To be fair, UAL is addressing the customer experience directly, with 75% of the narrowbody fleet getting new interiors by the end of 2025, which helps justify those premium fares.

• Customers want green and comfortable.

Technological Factors: Modernization vs. Supply Chain Woes

UAL is making smart moves in technology. Fleet modernization with new, fuel-efficient aircraft like the Boeing 787 and Airbus A321XLR is crucial for long-term cost control. Plus, the rollout of Starlink and other systems for the fastest in-flight WiFi in the U.S. by year end 2025 is a clear competitive differentiator.

They are also using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning to boost operational efficiency, aiming to improve scheduling and cut costs. What this estimate hides, though, is the massive risk from supply chain woes causing delays in new aircraft deliveries, which slows down the entire fleet renewal and efficiency plan.

• Tech is ready, but the parts aren't.

Legal Factors: Consumer Protection and Antitrust

The Department of Transportation (DOT) is laser-focused on consumer protection, specifically investigating airline loyalty programs and point devaluing. This means UAL's MileagePlus program-a key profit center-is under the microscope, and any changes could impact revenue.

There's also increased regulatory focus on unrealistic flight schedules and on-time performance, which puts pressure on the operations team to deliver. Plus, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) maintains strict oversight on safety compliance and airworthiness standards, which is non-negotiable but costly to maintain.

• The DOT is watching your points.

Environmental Factors: The Capital Cost of Net Zero

UAL has one of the industry's most aggressive sustainability commitments: reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 without relying on carbon offsets. This is a massive capital undertaking. The mid-term goal is to reduce carbon intensity by 50% by 2035 from a 2019 baseline.

They are backing this with real money, including an investment in a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) fund totaling over $200 million. Furthermore, the partnership to purchase up to 500,000 tons of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via direct air capture shows a commitment to expensive, next-generation solutions.

• Net zero by 2050 is a massive capital project.

Strategy Team: Model the financial impact of a 12-month delay on 50% of 2025-scheduled Boeing 787 deliveries by the end of next week.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

You're looking at the political landscape for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) in 2025, and the key takeaway is a mixed bag: the new administration's push for deregulation offers a clear opportunity for strategic growth, but it comes with the near-term risk of trade wars and persistent antitrust scrutiny on core hub operations like Newark. We're seeing a definite shift in the regulatory winds, but trade policy remains the wildcard.

Reimposed tariffs on imported aircraft (Airbus/Embraer) in April 2025

The reimposition of broad import duties, including a 10% base duty on foreign goods, directly impacts aircraft procurement, even if UAL's exposure is somewhat mitigated. The new administration's 'Liberation Day' tariff initiative, effective April 9, 2025, includes duties on imports from the European Union, which is subject to a 20% rate, and other nations.

United Airlines is not anticipating a 'meaningful direct impact' on aircraft prices, which is a strong statement. Here's the quick math: Boeing accounts for the majority of UAL's future total order book, and most of the Airbus A321neo jets UAL has on order are assembled in the US facility in Mobile, Alabama, which is typically exempted from these tariffs.

Still, the tariff risk is real for regional operations. For Embraer, a key regional jet supplier, the existing 10% import duty was maintained in July 2025, avoiding a proposed 40% increase. Embraer estimates the tariff adds around $2 million per aircraft, totaling an impact of about $80 million on the manufacturer in 2025. This cost pressure will defintely flow through the supply chain to regional partners like SkyWest Airlines, which holds orders for Embraer E175 aircraft, indirectly affecting UAL's regional feed.

New administration's push for regulatory loosening and potential merger activity

The political environment in 2025 favors large carriers like United Airlines looking for strategic expansion. The new administration is expected to adopt a more permissive, laissez-faire approach to airline mergers and commercial joint ventures compared to the previous administration's aggressive antitrust stance.

This shift means a lower hurdle for potential consolidation, which could allow UAL to pursue smaller, strategic acquisitions or deepen existing commercial alliances without immediate fear of a Department of Transportation (DOT) or Department of Justice (DOJ) challenge. You should also expect a rollback or freeze on certain consumer protection rules, such as the proposed new Family Seating Rule, which could reduce compliance costs for the airline. Less regulation means more operational flexibility.

• Expect fewer DOT enforcement actions and lower fines.
• Anticipate greater flexibility on merger and joint venture approvals.
• Consumer protection rulemaking may be withdrawn or frozen.

Department of Justice (DOJ) scrutiny on airline joint ventures and alliances

Despite the administration's general pro-merger stance, the DOJ is still actively scrutinizing UAL's dominant positions at key hubs. The focus remains on competition and consumer pricing, especially in the Northeast.

A major action in 2025 is the DOJ's civil antitrust lawsuit attempting to block Delta Air Lines' transfer of 24 New York Newark take-off and landing slots to United Airlines. The DOJ argues this $14 million transaction would further entrench UAL's monopoly at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), where UAL already holds a dominant market share. The DOJ alleges UAL already 'grounds' as many as 82 slots each day at Newark, deliberately restricting competition and driving up fares, which are among the highest in the country at that airport.

Furthermore, UAL's new 'Blue Sky' partnership with JetBlue Airways, which includes interline cooperation and a frequent flyer tie-up, is also under close regulatory review. The history of the failed Northeast Alliance between JetBlue and American Airlines Group, which was scuttled by the DOJ, means this new alliance faces intense scrutiny from antitrust officials and consumer advocates like Senator Richard Blumenthal.

Focus on modernizing Air Traffic Control (ATC) to address controller shortages

The chronic shortage of fully certified air traffic controllers (ATC) is a major political and safety concern that directly causes flight delays and operational headaches for UAL. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently short by approximately 3,800 fully certified controllers.

In July 2025, Congress approved $12.5 billion in funding for ATC equipment modernization as part of a broader effort to revamp the system, though the total estimated cost to complete the overhaul is roughly $31 billion. The industry group Airlines for America (A4A), which represents UAL, is lobbying Congress for additional funding to expedite controller hiring and training to close the staffing gap, which is the root cause of many operational delays.

The political will is there to fix this, but the bureaucratic process is slow. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) has warned that government funding instability, such as a shutdown, could furlough over 3,500 aviation safety professionals and significantly delay the training pipeline, worsening the crisis.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

You're looking at United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) and trying to map out how the current economic climate affects its bottom line. The short answer is a mixed bag: strong demand for premium seats is a massive tailwind, but the company's high debt load remains a structural headwind. You need to focus on what the numbers say about profitability, cost control, and financial risk.

Fiscal Year 2025 Adjusted EPS Projection

United Airlines' profitability outlook for the 2025 fiscal year is defintely resilient, even with macroeconomic uncertainty. The company has guided for an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) in the range of $9.00 to $11.00. This projection signals management's confidence in their strategic focus on international and premium travel, which are less sensitive to domestic economic fluctuations.

Here's the quick math: Hitting the midpoint of this range, say $10.00 EPS, would represent a significant earnings power. To be fair, some analysts are even more bullish, with a consensus estimate reaching as high as $12.96 per share. That bullishness is a clear signal that the market believes United's network strategy is working to capture higher-yield traffic.

Moderating Jet Fuel Prices

Fuel costs are the single largest variable expense for any airline, so moderating prices are a huge opportunity. For 2025, the industry-wide projection for the average jet fuel price is approximately $86 per barrel. This is a welcome change, representing a projected 13% year-over-year decrease.

What this estimate hides is the volatility. While the projected average is favorable, United Airlines has hedged about 60% of its 2025 fuel needs at an average of $2.70 per gallon. This hedging strategy locks in a cost, providing a buffer against price spikes, but it also limits the benefit if the spot price drops significantly below the hedged rate. Still, a lower average price directly supports the company's ability to hit the upper end of its EPS guidance.

High Financial Leverage

The company's balance sheet shows a high level of financial leverage, which is a key risk you need to keep an eye on. United Airlines has a Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.45. This figure indicates that the company relies heavily on debt financing relative to shareholder equity, common in capital-intensive sectors like aviation, but it increases financial risk.

A more concerning metric is the Altman Z-Score (a formula used to predict a company's probability of bankruptcy), which stands at a low 1.32. An Altman Z-Score below 1.8 places a company in the 'Distress Zone,' suggesting a potential risk of bankruptcy within the next two years. This doesn't mean failure is imminent, but it highlights the vulnerability to an unexpected economic downturn or a major, sustained operational disruption.

Strong Premium Demand

The strongest economic factor working in United Airlines' favor is the robust demand from the high-end consumer. The company's strategy to focus on premium and international routes is paying off handsomely. In the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), premium cabin revenue was up a significant 9.2% year-over-year.

This growth is critical because premium seats-First Class, Business Class (Polaris), and Premium Plus-generate disproportionately higher revenue per available seat mile (RASM) compared to the main cabin. This trend is driven by a few key factors:

• Winning brand-loyal customers, especially for global vacations.
• International travel strength, with Pacific RASM up 8.5% in Q1 2025.
• Forward bookings stability, with premium cabins up 17% in recent weeks.

While domestic demand, particularly in the main cabin, has been softer, the strength in premium and international segments provides a powerful counter-cyclical hedge. The wealthy consumer is simply less impacted by the uncertain macroeconomic environment, and United is capitalizing on that. They flew 69,000 average daily premium seats in Q1 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year, showing they are actively expanding this profitable capacity.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Strong, resilient demand for international and long-haul travel.

You are defintely seeing a fundamental shift in how people spend their money, prioritizing experiences like travel over other discretionary purchases. This trend, often called the 'experience economy,' is driving a robust and resilient demand for air travel, particularly in the international and premium segments, which directly benefits United Airlines' strategy.

In the first quarter of 2025, United Airlines reported a record total operating revenue of $13.2 billion, which is a 5.4% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. More specifically, global air travel demand in April 2025 saw international demand rise by a significant 10.8% year-on-year. The airline is leveraging its position as the largest operator of wide-body aircraft among U.S. carriers to serve over 150 international destinations, capitalizing on this high-yield market.

Here's the quick math on Q1 2025's passenger revenue strength:

Customer expectation for sustainable travel, driving investment in green initiatives.

Customers are increasingly factoring sustainability into their travel decisions, pushing airlines to move beyond simple carbon offsets. United Airlines has anchored its long-term strategy in this social trend, committing to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 without relying on traditional carbon offsets. This is a huge commitment.

The company's mid-term target is to reduce its carbon emissions intensity by 50% by 2035, using a 2019 baseline. The immediate, actionable focus is on scaling Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). United Airlines has invested in the future production of over 5 billion gallons of SAF, the largest commitment of any airline globally. Last year, the airline used over 4,300 metric tons-about 13 million gallons-of SAF, and in 2025, they expanded supply to three new major U.S. hubs: Houston (IAH), Newark (EWR), and Washington Dulles (IAD).

• Committed to net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
• Targeting 50% carbon intensity reduction by 2035.
• Future SAF production commitment exceeds 5 billion gallons.

Labor crises and workforce shortages across the entire aviation sector.

The entire aviation sector is grappling with labor shortages, a major operational risk that drives up costs. United Airlines is fighting this with an aggressive hiring strategy, aiming to add 50,000 new employees by the end of 2025 to support its 'United Next' growth plan. But this comes with a substantial cost increase.

New labor contracts, including a recent tentative five-year agreement with flight attendants, are adding an estimated $900 million to $1 billion annually to operating expenses. Plus, there's a retroactive payout of $595 million associated with that contract. Still, delays in new aircraft deliveries from Boeing have forced the company to slow its hiring pace, even canceling pilot classes for a couple of months, which complicates the labor-supply-demand balance. The need for staff is real, and it's expensive.

Focus on customer experience with 75% of the narrowbody fleet getting new interiors by end of 2025.

Customer experience is a key differentiator, especially in the premium travel market. United Airlines is making a massive investment in its cabin interiors under the 'United Next' program to meet rising passenger expectations. The goal is to have new interiors on more than 75% of all planes by the end of 2025.

This overhaul includes a premium product focus, adding features like seatback screens, larger overhead bins, and Bluetooth connectivity at every seat. The airline expects to have installed 150,000 seatback screens across its fleet by late 2025. While the original timeline was delayed due to supply chain issues, the progress is accelerating; the fleet was nearly halfway done with retrofits by the end of 2024, setting up a busy 2025. That's a huge lift for passenger comfort and loyalty.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Fleet modernization with new, fuel-efficient Boeing 787 and Airbus A321XLR aircraft

You're seeing United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) push hard to modernize its fleet, and the technology on these new jets directly cuts operating costs. This isn't just about a better passenger experience; it's a critical move to improve fuel efficiency and long-term margins. The core of this strategy involves next-generation aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the highly anticipated Airbus A321XLR.

For 2025, United is scheduled to take delivery of 10 Boeing 787-9 aircraft, which are vital for replacing older, less-efficient wide-body jets like the Boeing 767s and older Boeing 777 variants. These Dreamliners offer significantly lower fuel burn on long-haul routes. While the much-touted Airbus A321XLR is a key part of replacing the aging Boeing 757-200 fleet, its first delivery has been pushed back from late 2025 to Q1 2026.

The A321XLR is a game-changer because it's a narrow-body jet that can fly transatlantic, and it's projected to lower overall fuel burn per seat by about 30% compared to the 757-200. That's a massive efficiency gain. For the rest of 2025, the narrow-body fleet will be bolstered by deliveries including 33 Airbus A321neo and a combined 43 Boeing 737 MAX 8 and MAX 9 aircraft. This is how you drive down the average age of the fleet and cut your biggest variable cost: fuel.

Rollout of Starlink and other systems for the fastest in-flight WiFi in the U.S. by year end 2025

The passenger experience is getting a serious technology upgrade with the Starlink (SpaceX) satellite internet service rollout. United is making a clear move to offer the fastest, most reliable in-flight Wi-Fi in the U.S. and, crucially, making it free for all MileagePlus customers.

The rollout is aggressive: the plan is to outfit the entire two-cabin regional fleet by the end of 2025, with the first mainline Starlink-enabled plane flying before the year is out. As of November 2025, the progress is strong, with more than half of the regional fleet already equipped. The first mainline flight offering free Starlink Wi-Fi was in October 2025.

This low-Earth orbit satellite technology delivers download speeds between 100 and 250Mbps, with peaks up to 450Mbps, and low latency (under 99ms). This speed supports real-time streaming, video calls, and gaming, effectively creating a living room in the sky experience. It's a defintely a competitive differentiator.

Use of AI/machine learning for operational efficiency, aiming to improve scheduling and cut costs

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are moving out of the lab and into the corporate structure, driving tangible cost savings at United. The focus is on streamlining non-customer-facing functions first, which is a smart way to manage change risk. During the third-quarter 2025 earnings call, United's Chief Financial Officer confirmed that AI and process optimization have already led to a 4% reduction in management headcount at the headquarters compared to the previous year.

The company anticipates an additional 4% reduction in 2026 as these efficiency initiatives continue. Here's the quick math: that's a total of an 8% reduction across the headquarters management team driven by technology adoption.

AI is being deployed across several key areas:

• Revenue Forecasting: Predicting demand and passenger volumes with greater precision for better route planning.
• Customer Support: Managing routine interactions like rebookings, baggage tracking, and voucher issuance via chat and email, reserving human agents for complex issues.
• Back-Office: Automating routine accounting processes in finance, such as accounts payable and receivable.

Supply chain woes causing delays in new aircraft deliveries, slowing fleet renewal

The biggest near-term risk to United's technological and fleet strategy is the persistent global supply chain disruption. You can have the best plan in the world, but if the manufacturers can't deliver, your fleet renewal slows down. This is an industry-wide problem, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expecting severe supply chain issues to continue well into 2025.

The delays are concrete: the first Airbus A321XLR delivery, a key fuel-efficiency jet, is now expected in Q1 2026, not late 2025. Analysts estimate that these disruptions could impose costs exceeding $11 billion in 2025 across the industry, highlighting the financial strain. United is mitigating this by converting some of its Boeing 737 MAX 10 orders to the smaller MAX 9 variant and leasing other aircraft, demonstrating a flexible, but costly, approach to fleet management.

The table below summarizes the key fleet delivery numbers for 2025, which are constantly being adjusted due to these supply chain constraints.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Department of Transportation (DOT) investigation into airline loyalty programs and point devaluing

The legal landscape for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is heavily influenced by consumer protection laws, particularly those enforced by the Department of Transportation (DOT). A major regulatory risk in late 2024 and into 2025 is the DOT's formal investigation into the frequent flyer programs of the four largest U.S. carriers, including UAL. The probe, which started in September 2024, targets potential unfair, deceptive, or anticompetitive practices.

The core issue is the unilateral devaluation of points and the lack of transparency around dynamic pricing and hidden fees. For UAL, this is a significant financial exposure because the MileagePlus program is an enormous asset, valued at an estimated $22 billion. Any new regulation forcing greater transparency or limiting point devaluation could directly impact this valuation and the revenue stream from UAL's co-branded credit card partnerships.

Here's the quick math: if the DOT mandates that UAL must honor a minimum redemption value, even a small change impacts billions of dollars in liability on the balance sheet. This is defintely a high-stakes investigation.

Increased regulatory focus on unrealistic flight schedules and on-time performance

The DOT has significantly increased its enforcement actions against what it terms 'chronically delayed flights' and 'unrealistic scheduling' in 2025. This sets a new legal precedent that UAL must navigate, even though recent major fines were directed at competitors.

For example, the DOT fined JetBlue Airways $2,000,000 in January 2025 for operating chronically delayed flights in previous years, defining a 'chronically delayed flight' as one that arrives more than 30 minutes late over 50% of the time in a month. This focus signals that UAL's scheduling practices will be under intense scrutiny. The goal is to ensure the published schedule is a realistic promise to the consumer, not just an aggressive marketing tool.

Based on official data for the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), UAL's on-time performance (flights arriving within 15 minutes of scheduled time) was 78.6%, placing it 4th among the major U.S. carriers. This is a solid performance, but the heightened regulatory environment means any dip could trigger an investigation into whether its schedules are feasible. Also, in November 2025, UAL had to comply with an FAA order to reduce air traffic due to air traffic controller staffing shortages, which led to the cancellation of about 4% of its domestic flights over a weekend, showing how quickly external regulatory constraints can force schedule changes.

Antitrust enforcement against anti-competitive regulations and joint venture agreements

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the DOT continue to aggressively challenge airline alliances that they view as anti-competitive, a trend that directly impacts UAL's strategic growth via partnerships. The successful unwinding of the Northeast Alliance between American Airlines and JetBlue Airways set a clear precedent for regulatory skepticism toward domestic partnerships between large carriers.

In June 2025, Spirit Airlines filed a complaint with the DOT requesting an extended review of UAL's recently announced 'Blue Sky' partnership with JetBlue Airways. Spirit alleges this partnership is an anti-competitive, unfair method of competition that would effectively neutralize a low-fare competitor (JetBlue) and raise fares, especially by leveraging the UAL loyalty program to siphon customers. The legal challenge to the 'Blue Sky' partnership highlights the difficulty UAL faces in pursuing domestic growth through collaboration rather than merger, as regulators are now hyper-aware of competition concerns in concentrated markets.

FAA's strict oversight on safety compliance and airworthiness standards

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) maintains strict oversight on safety compliance, and any lapse results in significant legal and financial consequences. The FAA initiated a formal, comprehensive safety evaluation of United Airlines in March 2024 following a series of safety incidents, with the review nearing completion in late 2024. This increased oversight can slow down UAL's certification of new aircraft and routes, impacting its growth plans.

A concrete example of past enforcement is the FAA's proposed civil penalty of $1.1 million against UAL in February 2023. This fine was for allegedly operating Boeing 777 aircraft in an unairworthy condition between June 2018 and April 2021 by failing to perform a required Fire System Warning Check on over 100,000 flights. While the safety of the flights was not questioned by UAL, the penalty underscores the FAA's no-tolerance policy for deviations from mandated maintenance and airworthiness standards.

The current legal environment demands that UAL not only adheres to the letter of the law but also demonstrates a visible, reinforced safety culture to the regulator.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Commitment to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 without carbon offsets.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has staked its claim as a leader in aviation sustainability by committing to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. This is a significant move, as the airline has explicitly stated it will accomplish this without relying on the use of voluntary carbon offsets, which many critics view as a form of greenwashing.

The company is focused on in-sector emissions reductions, meaning they are tackling the problem head-on through technological advancements and fuel alternatives, not just paying to mitigate emissions elsewhere. Honestly, this is the harder, more credible path. The strategy relies on a combination of fleet renewal, operational efficiencies, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and advanced propulsion technologies like electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft.

Here's a breakdown of the planned contribution of key levers to the 2050 net-zero goal, based on an illustrative roadmap:

What this estimate hides is the massive capital and policy risk tied to scaling up the 2nd and 3rd generation SAF technologies, which account for nearly half of the projected reduction.

Mid-term goal to reduce carbon intensity by 50% by 2035 from a 2019 baseline.

To keep the long-term 2050 goal on track, United has set a crucial near-term target: reducing its carbon emissions intensity by 50% by 2035 compared to a 2019 baseline.

This target is defined as a reduction in Scope 1 (direct), Scope 2 (indirect from purchased energy), and well-to-wake (WTW) jet fuel GHG emissions, including some Scope 3 (other indirect) emissions, per revenue tonne kilometer (RTK). This is a precise metric that links emissions directly to business activity. The Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) approved this target in May 2023, validating that its ambition aligns with limiting global warming to well below 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels.

This mid-term goal is where the rubber meets the road, forcing near-term capital allocation decisions on fuel-efficient aircraft and SAF procurement.

Investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through a fund totaling over $200 million.

The core of United's near-term strategy is scaling up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to conventional jet fuel.

To drive this, the airline established the United Airlines Ventures Sustainable Flight Fund in 2023. As of early 2025, this fund has grown to include more than $200 million in investment commitments from United and over 18 corporate partners. This cross-industry collaboration is essential because the supply of SAF is currently less than 1% of global jet fuel use.

The fund's purpose is simple: invest in start-ups and proven producers to accelerate the research, production, and commercialization of new SAF technologies.

• Invest in new SAF production technologies.
• Secure future supply by creating a strong demand signal.
• Reduce reliance on traditional, limited SAF feedstocks.

United already holds more than 50% of all publicly announced future SAF purchase commitments among airlines globally.

Partnership to purchase up to 500,000 tons of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via direct air capture.

Recognizing that some residual emissions will remain even with maximum SAF use, United is also investing in carbon removal technologies. In February and March 2025, the UAV Sustainable Flight Fund announced an equity investment in the Direct Air Capture (DAC) company Heirloom.

Crucially, the fund also entered into an agreement giving United the right to purchase up to 500,000 tons of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). This captured CO2 will be used for one of two purposes: either for the production of power-to-liquids SAF (creating a circular carbon flow) or for permanent underground storage.

This is a defintely a strategic hedge. DAC (Direct Air Capture) technology pulls CO2 directly from the atmosphere, offering a scalable method to address the aviation industry's hard-to-abate emissions. This move complements United's earlier multimillion-dollar investment in 1PointFive, a partnership focused on building the first industrial-sized DAC plant in the U.S., which is expected to capture one million tons of CO2 each year.