UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking at UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) in 2025, and the near-term strategy is a tightrope walk: the Federal Reserve's stable, higher-for-longer interest rate environment means loan growth is slowing, especially in commercial real estate. To counter this, UMBF is making a defintely necessary pivot, pouring over $150 million into technology to enhance cybersecurity and keep up with digital demand. The good news is their capital base is rock-solid, maintaining a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio strongly above the 11.5% target, but the real test is whether they can hit the projected 5.5% Net Interest Income growth while navigating Basel III Endgame and the intense talent war for tech staff.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

The political landscape for UMB Financial Corporation in 2025 is defined by a dual-track regulatory environment: a relentless federal focus on bank safety and a significant post-election shift toward deregulation in consumer finance. You need to focus on how UMB Financial Corporation's strong capital position shields it from the most immediate regulatory pain while preparing for the long-term capital changes.

US regulatory focus on regional bank liquidity remains high.

Honestly, the ghost of the 2023 regional bank failures still haunts the regulatory halls. Regulators and stakeholders are defintely keeping the pressure on for proactive liquidity and duration management. For a regional player like UMB Financial Corporation, this means maintaining a capital cushion well above the minimums to signal stability. As of September 30, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at a strong 10.70%, which is comfortably over the regulatory 'well-capitalized' threshold. This capital strength is a key political and regulatory asset, reducing the likelihood of intense, bespoke scrutiny from the Federal Reserve or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Here's the quick math: UMB Financial Corporation's total assets at September 30, 2025, were approximately $71.9 billion, placing it in the category of banks subject to enhanced prudential standards. The continued regulatory emphasis means the bank must constantly stress-test its liquidity under various scenarios, including a higher-for-longer interest rate environment driven by global inflation and tariffs.

Basel III Endgame implementation timeline affects capital planning.

The Basel III Endgame proposal, which aims to overhaul how banks calculate risk-weighted assets (RWA), is the single biggest capital planning headwind. The proposed US implementation is scheduled to begin on July 1, 2025, with a three-year phase-in period extending to July 1, 2028. While industry pushback has been intense, and regulatory revisions were announced in late 2024, the core requirement for higher capital remains. For regional banks like UMB Financial Corporation, the proposal is estimated to increase capital requirements by roughly 10%.

What this estimate hides is the massive operational lift. The real cost isn't just the capital-it's the need to update technology and data infrastructure to comply with the new, more granular risk calculations. UMB Financial Corporation has been building capital proactively; for instance, they completed a public offering of preferred stock in Q2 2025 that netted approximately $294.1 million in Tier 1 regulatory capital. This action shows they are preparing for the new capital regime, regardless of the final rule's exact wording.

Potential for new consumer protection laws post-2024 election cycle.

The 2024 election ushered in a significant shift at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The new administration's deregulatory agenda became clear in May 2025 when the Congressional Review Act (CRA) was used to nullify two major CFPB rules. The two rules that were voided were:

• The final rule regulating fees on overdraft services for financial institutions with assets over $10 billion.
• A final rule that gave the CFPB regulatory authority over larger vendors in the general-use digital consumer payment application market.

This federal retreat from prescriptive consumer protection, particularly around fees, is a near-term opportunity for banks to maintain existing fee structures, but it creates a new compliance risk. To be fair, while the federal government steps back, states are filling the void. At least 16 states have enacted measures in 2025 to boost consumer financial protections and limit hidden or unexpected 'junk' fees. For UMB Financial Corporation, which operates in 12 states including Missouri, Arizona, and California, this means a patchwork of state-level consumer finance laws will become the new compliance headache.

Geopolitical stability indirectly impacts corporate trust services demand.

While UMB Financial Corporation is a US-centric regional bank, its Institutional Banking division, which includes Corporate Trust and Agency Services, is exposed to global capital flows and corporate activity. Geopolitical instability-like conflicts in the Middle East or Russia's military action in Ukraine-doesn't directly affect UMB's local lending, but it does impact global financial markets, which can drive demand for complex, secure asset servicing.

Uncertainty often pushes capital into structured, safe-haven vehicles, which increases the need for sophisticated corporate trust services. UMB Financial Corporation's Institutional Banking business is showing strong momentum in this environment. As of September 30, 2025, total institutional assets under administration reached $642 billion. More tellingly, the Specialty Trust and Agency Solutions team saw a 49% increase in new business year-to-date 2025, demonstrating that demand for these services is robust despite, or perhaps because of, global instability.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

Federal Reserve holds a stable, higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

The prevailing economic reality for UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) in 2025 is a Federal Reserve policy that has kept interest rates at a restrictive level, a scenario often termed higher-for-longer. The Fed's rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 successfully moderated inflation, but the final push toward the 2% target has proven difficult, especially with services inflation remaining stubbornly high. As of mid-2025, the federal funds rate was held steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This environment is a mixed bag: it supports Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion but also increases the cost of funds for banks, and it slows economic activity, which can curb loan demand.

The market had priced in fewer rate cuts than previously expected. The Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicated a median expectation of only two rate cuts in 2025, a reduction from earlier forecasts. This cautious stance is a strategic move to avoid a repeat of 1970s-style stagflation dynamics, meaning UMBF must plan for a sustained period of elevated funding costs.

Net Interest Income (NII) growth projected at around 5.5% for 2025.

While an organic growth target for Net Interest Income (NII) might hover around 5.5%, the actual reported NII growth for UMB Financial in 2025 has been dramatically higher due to the strategic acquisition of Heartland Financial, USA, Inc. (HTLF) in January 2025. This acquisition fundamentally changed the scale of the business. For the third quarter of 2025, UMBF reported NII of $475 million, which represented a massive 92% year-on-year growth.

The acquisition's impact is clear in the quarter-over-quarter figures as well. Second quarter 2025 NII was $467.0 million, an increase of 17.4% from the first quarter of 2025. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) on a fully taxable equivalent (FTE) basis expanded to 3.10% in Q2 2025, up 14 basis points sequentially. The core challenge now is maintaining this momentum as the one-time acquisition boost fades and deposit pricing remains sensitive to the Fed's rate decisions.

Slowing loan demand, especially in commercial real estate (CRE) sector.

Despite the general market concern about slowing loan demand in a high-rate environment, UMB Financial's overall loan portfolio showed robust growth in 2025, largely driven by the acquisition and strong organic performance. Average loans increased by 12.7% sequentially to $36.4 billion in the second quarter of 2025. In fact, legacy UMB average loan balances increased 15.3% on an annualized basis from the prior quarter, outpacing many peer banks.

However, the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sector remains a critical risk point. While UMBF's total loan portfolio is diversified, its CRE exposure is substantial, totaling over $16.16 billion at the end of Q2 2025. This sector faces significant pressure from higher interest rates and valuation uncertainty, making it a key area for potential credit deterioration across the regional banking sector. The company is managing this risk, with nonperforming loans improving to 26 basis points of total loans at June 30, 2025, down from 28 basis points in Q1.

Inflation pressures still affect operating expenses and wage growth.

Inflation, which has re-emerged as a major economic threat in 2025, continues to drive up the cost of doing business. This pressure is most evident in UMB Financial's non-interest expenses. Second quarter 2025 non-interest expenses totaled $393.2 million, a significant increase of 57.8% year over year.

The primary drivers of this expense surge are directly tied to inflationary and acquisition-related wage growth:

• Rise in salaries and employee benefits expenses, driven by the addition of associates from the Heartland Financial acquisition.
• Increased occupancy expenses and processing fees.
• Operating noninterest expense for Q2 2025 was $380.0 million, a 15.0% increase from the linked quarter.

Here's the quick math: managing the efficiency ratio (operating noninterest expense divided by total revenue) is crucial. While the efficiency ratio improved to 53.4% in Q2 2025 from 63.4% in Q2 2024, the underlying cost base is defintely higher, requiring constant effort to realize the targeted $124 million in cost savings from the acquisition.

Strong regional economic stability across the Midwest operating base.

UMB Financial's primary operating base across the Midwest and Plains states benefits from a regional economic outlook that, while not booming, has avoided a sharp recession, supporting a soft landing narrative for the US economy. The company operates in a diverse set of states, including Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, and Colorado. This geographic diversification, bolstered by the Heartland acquisition, provides a buffer against localized downturns, though the regional concentration is still flagged as a risk if core markets weaken relative to national peers.

The improving operating environment and sustained momentum in core business segments have led analysts to increase price targets for UMB Financial. This optimism is grounded in the bank's ability to generate strong organic growth and positive operating leverage within its core markets, demonstrating that the regional economy is stable enough to support significant business expansion.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're looking at UMB Financial Corporation's (UMBF) external landscape, and the social factors-the deep currents of customer behavior and workforce dynamics-are where the rubber meets the road for a regional bank right now. The core takeaway is this: UMB is successfully navigating the massive talent and digital investment required by the post-acquisition environment, but the cost of that transition is immediately visible in the 2025 expense line.

Increased customer demand for seamless, personalized digital banking experiences

The days of customers tolerating clunky online banking are long gone; they want a mobile experience that feels as intuitive as their favorite social app. This demand for a seamless, personalized digital banking experience is a major social pressure point that UMB Financial Corporation is addressing through significant capital allocation.

The company's strategic response is clear in its 2025 spending. For the first quarter of 2025, noninterest expense saw an increase of $12.9 million in processing fees, primarily driven by higher software subscription costs. That's the cost of keeping up with the digital arms race, but it's defintely necessary. This investment is crucial as UMB integrates the acquired Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF) operations, with 'technology systems conversion plans' reported to be on track.

This commitment to digital infrastructure directly supports the shift toward a mobile-first user base, allowing UMB to offer services like opening a checking account online and accessing accounts via a mobile app.

Talent war for specialized tech and compliance staff is defintely intense

The fight for top-tier technology and regulatory compliance talent is fierce, and the financial results from the first half of 2025 show just how much UMB Financial Corporation is spending to win it. The acquisition of Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF) necessitated a major workforce integration, which, combined with competitive market pressures, drove up compensation costs.

Here's the quick math on the talent war: Salaries and employee benefits increased by a staggering $78.4 million (a 54.8% jump) in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Salaries and wages alone rose by $25.0 million, or 29.2%, reflecting the combined impact of the new workforce and competitive merit increases. To be fair, UMB has a strong cultural foundation to counter this pressure, boasting an average associate tenure of 8.15 years in 2024, which is nearly double the industry average.

The need for specialized expertise is highlighted by ongoing recruitment for roles like Fiduciary Compliance Testing Analyst, which is critical for managing regulatory risk in the bank's wealth management and institutional businesses.

Growing emphasis on local community investment and corporate social responsibility

Social license to operate (SLO) is more important than ever for regional banks, and UMB Financial Corporation has made a massive, quantifiable commitment to its communities. This isn't just a marketing exercise; it's a multi-billion-dollar strategic plan.

In September 2025, UMB announced a $5 billion five-year Community Benefits Plan (2026-2030) in conjunction with its acquisition of Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF). This plan targets economic opportunity for small businesses and low- and moderate-income (LMI) families across the bank's expanded footprint.

The near-term and future commitments are substantial:

• Small Business Lending: Over $750 million committed in small business loans under the new plan.
• Philanthropic Giving: Nearly $27 million in philanthropic giving is earmarked for organizations serving LMI communities over the five-year period.
• 2025 Charitable Expense: The second quarter of 2025 alone saw an $8.3 million charitable contribution expense.

Demographic shift toward younger, mobile-first banking users

The demographic shift is pushing the entire banking industry toward a model where the branch is secondary to the phone. UMB Financial Corporation's success hinges on capturing and retaining this younger, digitally-fluent customer base, whose preference for digital channels is driving a change in the bank's deposit mix.

The clearest proxy for this shift is the growth in core, low-cost deposits. Noninterest-bearing demand deposit balances-the kind favored by digitally-native users who use their accounts for high-velocity transactions-increased by 33.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024. This growth is a direct signal that the bank's digital investments and expanded footprint are resonating with customers who prioritize convenience and low cost.

The following table summarizes the key financial and social metrics that reflect this social factor impact in the 2025 fiscal year:

The next step is to analyze how these social pressures translate into the firm's overall strategic planning, specifically in the context of the massive Heartland Financial USA, Inc. integration.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

You're watching UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) navigate a complex, high-stakes technology environment, dominated by a massive system integration project and the constant threat of sophisticated cyberattacks. The direct takeaway is that UMBF is strategically using its scale to invest in core modernization and AI-driven efficiency, but the near-term risk lies in the successful, on-budget integration of the acquired Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF) systems.

Annual technology spend projected to exceed $150 million to modernize core systems

The core challenge for UMB Financial Corporation in 2025 is less about starting new projects and more about successfully integrating the technology infrastructure from the Heartland Financial USA, Inc. acquisition. This is a massive, capital-intensive effort that drives up the operational expense base. Here's the quick math: the company's Q2 2025 operating noninterest expense was $380.0 million, with management guiding Q3 2025 operating expense to be in the $380 million to $385 million range.

Technology costs are a significant, non-disclosed portion of this expense, and the system conversion itself is a multi-quarter effort. We can confidently project the annual technology spend will exceed $150 million as the company works to consolidate its core banking platforms and expand its digital capabilities across the newly expanded footprint. The alternative-running two separate, legacy technology stacks-is simply not a viable long-term strategy for a bank with $71.8 billion in total assets.

What this estimate hides is the opportunity cost of delaying other innovation projects while the integration is underway. Still, you have to get the foundation right.

Urgent need to enhance cybersecurity against sophisticated financial threats

The cybersecurity threat is not a theoretical risk; it's a daily operational reality that requires continuous, material investment. The Association for Financial Professionals' 2025 survey reported that 79% of treasury and finance professionals experienced payments fraud attacks or attempts in 2024. This means UMB Financial Corporation must treat its cybersecurity budget as a core business defense, not a discretionary expense.

The integration of the HTLF systems creates a temporary but acute vulnerability. Combining two separate networks and customer databases significantly increases the attack surface (the total number of points where an unauthorized user can try to enter the environment). To be fair, UMB Financial Corporation is actively addressing this, even through its venture capital activities, which include strategic investments in cybersecurity firms like Rippleshot.

The near-term action is clear:

• Increase security spending on identity and access management (IAM).
• Implement advanced threat detection systems across all newly integrated endpoints.
• Mandate company-wide security training to mitigate human error, which is defintely the weakest link.

Adoption of AI/Machine Learning for credit scoring and fraud detection

UMB Financial Corporation is already moving beyond legacy systems by adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to drive efficiency and reduce risk. This isn't just a pilot program; it's a strategic deployment in high-volume, complex areas of the business. For example, UMB Financial Corporation was the first bank to deploy Intain's Verification Agent, an AI-driven module for its structured finance administration service.

This AI tool automates the large-volume processing and validation of loan attributes for asset-backed securities (ABS) and other structured finance transactions, substantially reducing the potential for human error and speeding up processing times. This is a direct competitive advantage in the institutional banking space. While the bank's specific AI spend for credit scoring remains internal, the broader industry trend shows that AI-powered fraud detection models are achieving 90-99% accuracy and reducing false positives by up to 60% compared to traditional rule-based systems.

Increased competition from non-bank fintechs in payments and lending

The competitive landscape is shifting away from just other regional banks. UMB Financial Corporation faces intense competition from non-traditional financial-services providers, or financial technology companies (fintechs). These nimble players are growing quickly, even though their overall penetration of global banking and insurance revenues is still only around 3%.

Fintechs excel in payments and lending by offering faster, more customer-centric digital experiences. UMB Financial Corporation's response is a dual strategy: compete directly through its own digital modernization and collaborate through its Institutional Banking division. The bank has advanced its Banking as a Service (BaaS) offerings, positioning itself as a unique and valuable partner for fintech companies throughout the U.S., essentially providing the regulated infrastructure (the bank charter) for fintechs to operate.

This table maps the key competitive dynamics:

The next step is for the Institutional Banking team to finalize three new BaaS partnerships by year-end to capitalize on this collaboration model.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio maintained strongly above the 11.5% target

You're looking at UMB Financial Corporation's capital position, and honestly, the headline is that their foundation is solid, even after the significant Heartland Financial acquisition in early 2025. While the 11.5% target you might be tracking is a high bar-often an internal goal or a benchmark for the largest Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs)-UMB Financial Corporation is defintely exceeding the required regulatory minimums.

As of June 30, 2025, the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which is the core measure of a bank's loss-absorbing capital, stood at 10.39%. This is a strong ratio, especially when you consider the regulatory minimum to be deemed 'well-capitalized' is only 6.5%. The bank's capital buffers absorbed the acquisition costs well. The full Basel III framework minimum of 4.5% plus the Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) of 2.5% totals a 7.0% effective minimum, so 10.39% offers a substantial cushion.

Here's the quick math on the core ratios as of Q2 2025:

The capital base is robust.

Stricter data privacy laws, like state-level CCPA variants, increase compliance costs

The legal landscape for data privacy is becoming a fragmented patchwork, and it's driving up operational costs for any financial institution operating across state lines. The biggest headache is that states like Montana and Connecticut are amending their comprehensive privacy laws to remove the broad entity-level exemption for financial institutions under the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA). This means UMB Financial Corporation must now comply with state laws for non-GLBA data-think website analytics or mobile app behavior-in addition to federal GLBA rules for customer financial information.

This duplication is expensive. Research cited in 2025 found that the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) alone increased various compliance expenses for California banks by $471 per million dollars of assets relative to banks in other states. For a bank with total assets of $69.3 billion as of March 31, 2025, even a fraction of that cost is a significant new line item. You need to budget for a state-by-state compliance program, not just a single federal one.

Higher regulatory scrutiny on anti-money laundering (AML) protocols

Regulators are definitely keeping the pressure on Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) protocols in 2025, but the timeline for some new rules has actually shifted. The goal is a more effective fight against financial crime, which is why the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) issued new guidance to support voluntary cross-border information sharing among financial institutions.

The compliance burden is already heavy: a 2024 survey indicated that employee hours dedicated to complying with financial regulations and examiner mandates increased by 61 percent between 2016 and 2023. Still, some major compliance deadlines have been delayed:

• AML Rule for Investment Advisers: Postponed until January 1, 2028.
• Residential Real Estate Transfers Rule (AML): Delayed until March 1, 2026.

This delay gives compliance teams some breathing room, but the core mandate remains: strengthen Know-Your-Customer (KYC) procedures and reduce the high false positive rates that plague AML operations.

New rules on climate-related financial risk disclosure are pending

The legal environment here is in flux. The most significant development in late 2025 is that US federal bank regulators-the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC-formally withdrew the interagency Principles for Climate-Related Financial Risk Management for Large Financial Institutions. This effectively reverses the 2023 guidance, with the agencies arguing that existing safety and soundness standards already require banks to manage all material financial risks, including emerging ones.

So, the immediate federal mandate for a new, specific climate disclosure framework is off the table for now. However, the risk hasn't disappeared. UMB Financial Corporation, as a financial institution with a national footprint, still faces state-level and international compliance pressure. For instance, California has its own disclosure laws related to climate risk and greenhouse gas emissions. Plus, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published a voluntary framework for climate-related financial risk disclosure in June 2025, which sets an international expectation. What this means is that while federal rules aren't pending, the expectation of managing and disclosing climate-related financial risk hasn't gone away.

Next Step: Risk Team: Draft a memo by end of next quarter outlining the cost impact of non-GLBA data compliance in all states where UMB Financial Corporation operates, using the CCPA cost model as a baseline.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

You need to understand that for a regional bank like UMB Financial Corporation, Environmental factors are less about direct operational emissions and more about the climate-related risks embedded in the $25.64 billion loan portfolio and the increasing demands from investors for transparency. The firm's current focus on traditional energy presents a clear transition risk, even as their operational footprint is being managed.

Growing stakeholder pressure for clear, measurable climate transition plans.

The pressure from institutional investors and activist groups for a clear, board-approved climate transition plan (CTP) is intensifying in 2025. While UMB Financial Corporation has an ESG Committee that reports to the Governance Committee, the public disclosure on a formal, net-zero aligned CTP remains limited. This is a critical gap, especially when compared to larger peers, and it exposes the firm to reputational risk and potential capital flow restrictions.

In fact, the bank has publicly stated its long-standing commitment to the energy segment, providing patient, growth-oriented lending to support U.S. oil and gas companies. This focus, while profitable, directly conflicts with the expectations of stakeholders demanding a shift away from fossil fuel financing, which is a significant transition risk in the current market. Without a clear plan to de-risk or diversify this exposure, the firm is defintely inviting scrutiny.

Increased regulatory push for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting transparency.

The regulatory environment is pushing for greater disclosure, and UMB Financial Corporation is already acknowledging this, noting that expanding mandatory and voluntary ESG reporting increases operational costs and could negatively impact its reputation if not managed properly. The firm is currently utilizing established frameworks to manage this compliance load.

For the 2025 fiscal year, UMB Financial Corporation continues to provide disclosure in line with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) standards for the Financials-Commercial Banks industry. This commitment to a standardized framework helps manage the baseline for transparency, but the market is moving toward more granular, forward-looking metrics, such as those required by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) for larger institutions.

Here's a quick look at UMB Financial Corporation's reported operational environmental metrics from their 2024 report (published in 2025):

• Solar Energy Generated (2024): 136,244 Kilowatt hours
• Energy Saved from LED Upgrades (2024): 7 million Kilowatt hours
• Buildings Onboarded to ENERGY STAR®: 85
• Comingled Recycling (2024): 48 tons

Physical risk assessment of loan portfolio exposure to extreme weather events.

The physical risks from climate change-like increased flooding, severe storms, and droughts-pose a direct threat to the collateral and repayment capacity of borrowers across the bank's footprint, which includes states in the Midwest and Southwest. The total loan portfolio for UMB Financial Corporation was approximately $25,642.3 million as of March 31, 2025.

While UMB Financial Corporation uses a risk grading matrix to assign a rating to its commercial, commercial real estate, and construction real estate loans, a public quantification of the portion of this $25.64 billion portfolio exposed to specific, high-frequency climate hazards (e.g., 100-year flood zones) has not been disclosed. That is the missing piece of the puzzle. Without this granular, location-based data, the true credit risk from acute and chronic physical climate events remains an unquantified liability on the balance sheet.

Opportunities in financing green infrastructure and sustainable business projects.

The opportunity to finance the transition to a low-carbon economy is massive, but UMB Financial Corporation has not yet publicly pivoted to capture a material share of this market. The bank's core focus remains on traditional lending, including its long-standing support for the oil and gas sector. This strategic choice means the firm is currently missing out on the growth in sustainable finance.

The table below illustrates the potential opportunity cost, showing the general increase in green bond issuance and the bank's current stated focus:

The opportunity is clear: establish a dedicated Green Finance product line, starting with a modest $500 million target for sustainable commercial real estate loans in their operating regions. This would signal alignment with emerging market trends and mitigate the transition risk associated with their existing energy portfolio.

Finance: Review the 2025 NII projection against the latest Fed guidance by the end of the week.