Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking to cut through the hype and see if Viking Therapeutics, Inc. really has the competitive moat to succeed in the massive obesity and MASH spaces, and frankly, the view as of late 2025 is complex. We're dealing with an extremely high competitive rivalry dominated by multi-hundred-billion-dollar players, yet the threat of new entrants is relatively low, partly because Viking Therapeutics, Inc. held a $714.6 million cash position as of September 30, 2025, making it tough for smaller firms to start. Still, you can't ignore the extremely high power of US payers controlling formulary access, even as the company tries to manage supplier risk with that big prepayment deal. Keep reading; this Five Forces analysis maps out the near-term risks and opportunities you need to see before making your next move.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

When you look at Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX), the supplier side of the equation is dominated by the specialized nature of peptide manufacturing. Honestly, for a company without approved products, securing the supply chain for its lead candidate, VK2735, is a massive operational hurdle, and that gives suppliers leverage.

The power of specialized Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs) for peptide Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) is inherently high. Peptide synthesis is complex, requiring specific expertise and infrastructure that few players possess, especially at the scale Viking Therapeutics needs to compete with giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. This concentration means Viking Therapeutics has limited alternatives for its critical API.

To counter this, Viking Therapeutics made a significant move, effectively buying down some of that supplier power. They entered into a deal with CordenPharma, a leading CDMO in the peptide space, involving a total commitment of $150 million in prepayments scheduled from 2025 through 2028. This prepayment acts as a credit against future orders, but it secures dedicated capacity, which is the real prize here.

Here's a quick look at what that $150 million commitment secures for Viking Therapeutics:

Still, even with this deal, relying on a single CDMO for the entire supply chain-API production and fill-finish for both formulations-creates a concentration risk. If CordenPharma faces operational issues, Viking Therapeutics' entire commercialization timeline for VK2735 is at risk. This single-source reliance for the VK2735 API is a key vulnerability, even if the prepayment helps secure the relationship.

The power of clinical research organizations (CROs) also rises due to the high cost of late-stage development. You can see this pressure reflected in Viking Therapeutics' operating expenses. For the third quarter of 2025, Research and Development (R&D) expenses hit $90.0 million. That's a substantial jump from the $22.8 million reported in the third quarter of 2024, representing an increase of $67.2 million for the quarter. The primary driver for this was increased costs related to clinical studies and manufacturing.

This aggressive spending is necessary to push the subcutaneous formulation through its two Phase 3 obesity trials, VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2. The nine-month R&D spend reached $191.5 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $70.7 million for the same period in 2024. These large, ongoing clinical costs mean CROs, which execute these trials, hold significant pricing power over Viking Therapeutics, especially given the company's current cash position of $715 million as of September 30, 2025.

The supplier power dynamic is summarized by these key factors:

• Peptide API expertise is concentrated among a few CDMOs.
• The CordenPharma deal locks in capacity through 2028.
• Secured capacity includes over 1 billion oral doses annually.
• R&D spending for Q3 2025 was $90.0 million.
• Single-source reliance for the API is a concentration risk.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

For Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX), the bargaining power of customers is a complex dynamic, split sharply between the end-user patient and the powerful entities that control access to the drug-namely, payers and Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).

Low power for individual patients due to the high unmet need in the obesity and MASH markets.

Individual patients seeking treatment for obesity or Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH) have very little leverage. The sheer scale of the problem underscores this. Global obesity rates exceeded 650 million adults in 2024. For MASH, the market reflects a severe gap in care; Stage 4 patients, including those with compensated cirrhosis, represented about USD 1.58 billion of the total market in 2024, facing a high unmet need due to limited treatment options. Critically, with no currently approved curative therapies for MASH, patients are highly motivated to accept whatever effective treatment Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) brings forward. This desperation translates directly into low individual bargaining power.

The high demand is also evident in market projections. The MASH treatment market was valued at USD 7.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 31.76 billion by 2033. Furthermore, anti-obesity GLP-1 agonist drugs were the most significant driver of prescription revenue for retail pharmacies in 2024, accounting for over 80% of dispensing revenue growth.

Extremely high power for large US payers and Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) controlling formulary access for high-cost, chronic treatments.

While patients are eager, the gatekeepers hold the real power. PBMs act as the primary negotiators for formulary placement, which dictates patient access and, ultimately, sales volume for Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX). The US PBM market is highly consolidated. The top three players-CVS Health, Express Scripts (part of Cigna), and OptumRx (part of UnitedHealth Group)-collectively control approximately 75% of the market. In terms of rebate negotiation specifically, OptumRx held a 22.2% share in 2023, CVS Health 18.9%, and Express Scripts 15.5%. This concentration means that securing favorable formulary tiers requires significant concessions, often in the form of rebates, to these few powerful entities.

PBMs leverage their scale to negotiate better prices and control access through formulary design, which can include utilization management tactics like step therapy. For a high-cost, chronic treatment like an obesity or MASH drug, formulary placement is everything; being on a restrictive tier can effectively block patient access, regardless of clinical efficacy.

Clinical data is key; the 12.2% mean weight loss for oral VK2735 is a strong leverage point against existing therapies.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX)'s primary leverage against these powerful payers comes from the efficacy data for its oral candidate, VK2735. The Phase 2 VENTURE-Oral Dosing trial showed impressive results at the highest dose. You need to show payers that your drug is not just another option, but a superior one to justify a premium price or preferred formulary position. Here's how the top-dose data stacks up against comparable competitor data at similar time points:

The 12.2% mean weight loss at 13 weeks is a significant number, especially when compared to the 6% weight loss seen with Eli Lilly's oral candidate and 4% with Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in their respective trials over similar periods. This superior short-term efficacy is Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX)'s strongest negotiating chip.

Oral formulation's 28% discontinuation rate in a Phase 2 trial gives payers leverage on safety/tolerability.

However, this efficacy leverage is immediately countered by tolerability concerns, which PBMs and payers use to argue for higher rebates or restricted access. The overall treatment discontinuation rate for VK2735 subjects was 28% compared to 18% for placebo subjects in the Phase 2 trial. Discontinuation due to adverse events was 20% for VK2735 versus 13% for placebo.

The data shows a clear dose-dependent issue, which payers will focus on:

• Highest dose (120 mg) discontinuation rate: 38%.
• Nausea rate at the top dose: 58%.
• Vomiting rate at the top dose: 35%.

Payers can argue that a drug with a 38% discontinuation rate at its most effective dose is not commercially viable for broad coverage, especially when compared to the placebo discontinuation rate of 18%. They will push for lower net prices to offset the cost of managing patient drop-offs and side effects, which are primarily gastrointestinal. The fact that the 90 mg dose followed by a 30 mg maintenance dose yielded 9.2% weight loss suggests a potential path to better tolerability, but payers will demand proof of this strategy's success in larger, longer trials before committing to favorable coverage.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

The competitive rivalry facing Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) is characterized by an entrenched duopoly of pharmaceutical giants, making market entry and share capture exceptionally difficult.

Extremely high rivalry is dominated by market leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, controlling the vast majority of the GLP-1 segment. In the U.S. obesity market specifically, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based drugs, including Zepbound, had captured a 57% market share by Q2 2025, up from 53% in Q1 2025. This aggressive capture directly challenges Novo Nordisk's prior dominance in the space.

Viking Therapeutics' current financial footing is dwarfed by these competitors. As of November 2025, Viking Therapeutics has a market capitalization of $4.01 billion. To put this in perspective against the established players:

Direct competition is fierce in the metabolic space. Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide) are the established dual agonist treatments for weight management. Lilly's tirzepatide has demonstrated superior weight loss efficacy in trials, which has fueled its market share gains.

Furthermore, Viking Therapeutics faces rivalry in the MASH (Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis) market, where Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has an approved first-mover advantage with Rezdiffra. Rezdiffra generated net sales of $212.8 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The competitive dynamics in MASH include:

• Rezdiffra U.S. target population of F2-F3 MASH patients is approximately 315,000.
• As of June 30, 2025, more than 23,000 patients were on Rezdiffra.
• This represents a market penetration of about 7% of the target market as of Q2 2025.
• Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is also developing next-generation therapies, including a licensed oral GLP-1 agonist, which directly overlaps with the therapeutic class dominated by Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

The sheer scale of the incumbents means Viking Therapeutics must demonstrate significant clinical differentiation to carve out a meaningful position, especially given the established players are also advancing their own pipeline candidates, including oral GLP-1s.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) and assessing how many alternatives exist that could steal market share from their pipeline candidates. This threat of substitutes is significant, especially in the metabolic space where they are focusing their lead assets.

High threat from approved, on-market GLP-1 and dual GLP-1/GIP injectable therapies

The established injectable GLP-1 receptor agonists present an immediate and substantial hurdle. The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market was valued at approximately USD 62.86 billion in 2025, projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.5% through 2034. In 2024, the injectable segment of this market held a dominant share of 83%. Viking Therapeutics, Inc.'s injectable candidate, VK2735, is entering a market already defined by high efficacy from incumbents. For instance, data from a competitor's dual GIP/GLP-1 agent, Zepbound, showed superior weight loss compared to a leading GLP-1-only agent. Another competitor's agent, MariTide, showed up to ~20% weight loss in obese patients in Phase 2 trials.

Here's a quick look at the competitive efficacy landscape for injectables:

Growing threat from oral GLP-1/GIP drugs like Eli Lilly's orforglipron

The convenience of an oral pill is a massive substitute for injectables, and the pipeline is rapidly maturing. Eli Lilly and Company plans to submit its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron, for regulatory review by the end of 2025. This oral route is expected to be the fastest growing segment within the GLP-1 drug administration methods. The data for orforglipron is compelling, which directly pressures any future oral offering from Viking Therapeutics, Inc. For example, in the ATTAIN-1 trial, the highest dose of orforglipron resulted in an average weight loss of 27.3 lbs (12.4%) over 72 weeks in non-diabetic participants.

• Orforglipron T2D trial (ACHIEVE-1) highest dose weight loss: 16.0 lbs (7.9%).
• Orforglipron discontinuation rate (highest dose): 10.3% in ATTAIN-2.
• Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide trial (OASIS 1) weight loss: 15.1% over 68 weeks.

The success of these oral agents means that patients may opt for a pill that is easier to adhere to, even if the efficacy is slightly below the best injectables. Honestly, if onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises, and an oral option reduces that friction significantly.

Substitutes include bariatric surgery and older, less effective weight-loss drugs

While the focus is on novel pharmacotherapies, established, non-GLP-1-based treatments remain substitutes. Bariatric surgery, while invasive, offers the most significant weight loss potential, serving as the high-efficacy, high-commitment alternative. Older, less effective weight-loss drugs, often with less favorable safety profiles, still occupy market segments, particularly for patients who cannot tolerate or do not qualify for GLP-1 therapies. We don't have specific 2025 market share data for these legacy products here, but their existence provides a baseline alternative.

VK2809 for MASH faces substitution from other THR-β agonists and emerging non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) treatments

Viking Therapeutics, Inc.'s VK2809, a thyroid hormone beta receptor (THR-β) agonist for MASH, competes in a space that just saw its first approval. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' Rezdiffra received a positive Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) opinion in June 2025, establishing a first-mover advantage. VK2809 itself showed strong Phase IIb data, with up to 75% of patients achieving MASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis after 52 weeks. However, the pipeline is crowded with similar mechanisms.

The company's significant investment in this area is clear: Viking Therapeutics, Inc.'s Research and Development (R&D) expenses for Q3 2025 totaled $90.0 million, up from $22.8 million in Q3 2024, reflecting the cost of advancing candidates like VK2809.

Other THR-β agonists directly substitute VK2809:

• ALG‑055009 (Aligos Therapeutics)
• TERN-501 (Terns Inc.)
• ECC4703 (Eccogene)
• VK0214 (Viking Therapeutics' other candidate)

Also, treatments using alternative mechanisms, such as FXR agonists and FGF21 analogs, are being developed, which broadens the substitution threat beyond just the THR-β class.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for Viking Therapeutics, Inc. remains relatively low, primarily because the capital and time investment required to reach a successful commercial launch are substantial barriers to entry in the competitive metabolic and endocrine disorder space.

The immense capital required for late-stage clinical development and commercial scale-up immediately filters out most potential competitors. For a company like Viking Therapeutics, which is advancing its lead candidate through pivotal trials, the financial commitment is staggering. Phase 3 clinical trials alone can cost between $25 million and $100 million. Considering Viking Therapeutics' Phase 3 VANQUISH program involves approximately 5,600 total planned participants across two studies, and pivotal studies can cost a median of $41,117 per patient, the immediate cash outlay for a new entrant to even reach the data stage is prohibitive.

To be fair, the median direct research and development cost for a new drug is estimated at $150 million, though the mean is $369 million when factoring in company-wide spending. Furthermore, the overall cost to bring a single drug to market is estimated to average $2.6 billion, encompassing failures and the long development timeline.

Viking Therapeutics' current financial strength acts as a significant deterrent to smaller players attempting to enter the market at a similar stage. As of September 30, 2025, Viking Therapeutics held cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $714.6 million. This war chest provides a runway to fund its ongoing Phase 3 trials, which is a level of capital that a startup would struggle to match without significant, dilutive financing.

The regulatory pathway presents another major hurdle, creating a significant time-to-market barrier. Navigating the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval process requires deep expertise and time. While the FDA is utilizing expedited pathways, which can shorten decision timelines to as little as six months under Priority Review compared to 10 months standard review, the underlying clinical development and submission preparation still consume years. Intellectual property protection, while crucial for innovators, also means a new entrant must develop a truly novel compound or face infringement risks, adding another layer of legal and scientific complexity.

Finally, securing the necessary manufacturing capacity for high-volume peptide drugs is a concrete, capital-intensive barrier that Viking Therapeutics has already addressed. New entrants face the challenge of building or contracting for production capacity while simultaneously running trials. Viking Therapeutics has already locked in substantial supply through a multi-year agreement, securing an annual capacity of over 1 billion oral pills, along with 100 million autoinjectors. This commitment, which involved a $150 million prepayment over three years, effectively reserves critical manufacturing slots with Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs) like CordenPharma, making it harder for a latecomer to secure the necessary scale-up resources quickly.

Here's a quick look at the scale of the financial commitment required to compete in late-stage development:

The barriers to entry are further illustrated by the required scale of operations:

• Viking Therapeutics oral capacity secured: >1 billion pills annually.
• Viking Therapeutics autoinjector capacity secured: 100 million units annually.
• Manufacturing Scale-Up as % of Total Budget: Estimated at 15-25%.
• FDA Priority Review Timeline: As short as 6 months.