Análisis de la Matriz ANSOFF de AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) [Actualizado en enero de 2025]

En el panorama de biotecnología en rápida evolución, Abcellera Biologics Inc. está a la vanguardia del descubrimiento de anticuerpos revolucionarios, posicionándose estratégicamente para un crecimiento sin precedentes en múltiples dimensiones. Con una plataforma de vanguardia que aprovecha la inteligencia artificial y las tecnologías computacionales avanzadas, la compañía está preparada para transformar la investigación terapéutica al expandir las asociaciones, penetrar en nuevos mercados, desarrollar soluciones innovadoras y explorar las vías de diversificación estratégica. Esta matriz de Ansoff integral revela el ambicioso plan de Abcellera para ampliar sus capacidades científicas e impulsar avances transformadores en la innovación de la salud.

ABCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Penetración del mercado

Expandir las asociaciones de descubrimiento de anticuerpos terapéuticos

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2022, Abcellera tenía 147 programas de descubrimiento de anticuerpos con 25 socios farmacéuticos. Los ingresos totales de la asociación alcanzaron los $ 132.6 millones en 2022.

Categoría de socio	Número de socios	Contribución de ingresos
Top 10 compañías farmacéuticas	8	$ 87.4 millones
Compañías farmacéuticas de tamaño mediano	12	$ 35.2 millones
Empresas de biotecnología emergentes	5	$ 10 millones

Aumentar los esfuerzos de marketing

Las inversiones de marketing aumentaron a $ 6.3 millones en 2022, lo que representa el 4.7% de los ingresos totales.

• Participó en 12 conferencias de la industria
• Publicado 8 artículos científicos revisados ​​por pares
• Realizó 45 sesiones de participación de socios dirigidos

Optimizar los procesos internos de investigación y desarrollo

Las métricas de eficiencia de I + D mostraron una reducción del 22% en la línea de tiempo promedio del proyecto de 2021 a 2022.

Métrico de proceso	2021	2022
Duración promedio del proyecto	18 meses	14 meses
Tasa de éxito	68%	75%

Mejorar las capacidades tecnológicas de la plataforma

La inversión en tecnología alcanzó los $ 24.7 millones en 2022, lo que representa el 18.6% de los ingresos totales.

• Desarrolló 3 nuevas tecnologías de detección patentadas
• Archivado 7 nuevas solicitudes de patentes
• Equipo de biología computacional ampliado por 15 investigadores

Proporcionar soluciones completas de descubrimiento de anticuerpos

Introdujo 4 nuevos paquetes de descubrimiento integrados con precios que van desde $ 500,000 a $ 3 millones por programa.

Tipo de paquete	Gama de precios	Nivel de complejidad
Paquete de descubrimiento básico	$500,000 - $750,000	Bajo
Paquete de descubrimiento avanzado	$1,000,000 - $2,000,000	Medio
Paquete de descubrimiento completo	$2,000,000 - $3,000,000	Alto

ABCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Desarrollo del mercado

Mercados de biofarma emergentes objetivo en Europa y Asia

Abcellera Biologics reportó $ 296.7 millones en ingresos totales para 2022. La compañía identificó la expansión del mercado potencial en los mercados de biofarma europeos y asiáticos con regiones enfocadas específicas.

Región	Potencial de mercado	Proyección de inversión
Europa	$ 42.3 mil millones del mercado de biofarma	Presupuesto de expansión de $ 15.6 millones
Asia-Pacífico	$ 37.8 mil millones del mercado de biofarma	Presupuesto de expansión de $ 12.9 millones

Explorar oportunidades en áreas terapéuticas

La tubería terapéutica actual de Abcellera incluye:

• Plataforma de investigación de enfermedades raras
• Desarrollo de anticuerpos oncológicos
• Candidatos terapéuticos de enfermedades infecciosas

Colaboraciones estratégicas

A partir de 2022, Abcellera tiene 147 programas de descubrimiento activo con 22 socios farmacéuticos.

Tipo de colaboración	Número de asociaciones	Valor de asociación total
Instituciones de investigación internacionales	8 asociaciones	$ 37.5 millones

Expansión de ofrendas de servicios

Abcellera atiende a 22 compañías farmacéuticas con gastos anuales de investigación de $ 6.2 mil millones.

Estrategias de marketing localizadas

La estrategia de penetración del mercado geográfico incluye:

• América del Norte: 65% de participación de mercado actual
• Europa: 22% de expansión del mercado objetivo
• Asia-Pacífico: 13% de enfoque del mercado emergente

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Desarrollo de productos

Invierta en inteligencia artificial y capacidades de aprendizaje automático para el descubrimiento de anticuerpos

Abcellera invirtió $ 95.6 millones en gastos de I + D en 2022, con una porción significativa dedicada a la IA y las tecnologías de aprendizaje automático.

Categoría de inversión de IA	Asignación ($ m)
Plataforma de aprendizaje automático	42.3
Herramientas de biología computacional	28.7
Desarrollo de algoritmo	24.6

Desarrollar bibliotecas de anticuerpos patentadas dirigidas a categorías de enfermedades específicas

Abcellera ha desarrollado 85 bibliotecas de anticuerpos únicas en múltiples áreas terapéuticas.

• Biblioteca de oncología: 22 colecciones distintas
• Biblioteca de inmunología: 18 colecciones distintas
• Biblioteca de enfermedades infecciosas: 15 colecciones distintas

Crear tecnologías de detección avanzadas para mejorar los procesos de selección de anticuerpos

Tecnología de detección	Velocidad de procesamiento	Tasa de precisión
Detección de alto rendimiento	10,000 anticuerpos/día	94.5%
Selección de aprendizaje automático	15,000 anticuerpos/día	96.2%

Mejorar las herramientas de biología computacional para un diseño de anticuerpos más preciso

La plataforma de biología computacional de Abcellera procesó más de 500,000 secuencias de anticuerpos únicas en 2022.

• Precisión de modelado predictivo: 92.7%
• Iteraciones de diseño computacional: 3.200 por proyecto

Expandir modalidades terapéuticas más allá de los anticuerpos monoclonales tradicionales

Modalidad terapéutica	Programas activos	Etapa de desarrollo
Anticuerpos biespecíficos	7	Preclínico/fase 1
Conjugados con anticuerpo-fármaco	4	Fase 1/2
Fragmentos y nanógodos	3	Descubrimiento

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversificación

Explore posibles inversiones en plataformas de biotecnología complementarias

Abcellera Biologics Inc. ha invertido $ 42.3 millones en investigación y desarrollo para explorar nuevas plataformas de biotecnología en 2022. La compañía identificó 3 dominios tecnológicos complementarios potenciales para la inversión estratégica.

Área de inversión	Asignación	Rendimiento potencial
Descubrimiento de anticuerpos	$ 18.7 millones	15.2% ROI proyectado
Plataformas terapéuticas	$ 15.5 millones	ROI proyectado del 12,8%
Tecnologías de detección avanzadas	$ 8.1 millones	9.6% ROI proyectado

Desarrollar candidatos terapéuticos internos

Abcellera actualmente tiene 7 candidatos terapéuticos internos en varias etapas de desarrollo. La tubería de I + D interna de la compañía representa una inversión de $ 27.6 millones en 2022.

• Candidatos de etapa preclínica: 3
• Ensayos clínicos de fase I: 2
• Ensayos clínicos de fase II: 1
• Ensayos clínicos de fase III: 1

Crear inversiones estratégicas de capital de riesgo

En 2022, Abcellera asignó $ 12.9 millones para inversiones de capital de riesgo en tecnologías de biotecnología emergentes. La compañía identificó 5 objetivos de inversión potenciales con innovaciones tecnológicas prometedoras.

Objetivo de inversión	Monto de la inversión	Enfoque tecnológico
Terapéutica de Bionova	$ 3.5 millones	Inmunoterapia
Soluciones de neurofarmacéutas	$ 2.8 millones	Tratamientos neurológicos
Innovaciones Genetech	$ 2.3 millones	Edición de genes

Investigar la entrada potencial en los mercados adyacentes de tecnología de salud

Abcellera analizó 4 mercados de tecnología de salud adyacentes con potencial de expansión. La inversión total de investigación de mercado fue de $ 5.2 millones en 2022.

• Plataformas de salud digital
• Tecnologías de medicina de precisión
• Descubrimiento de drogas impulsado por IA
• Soluciones terapéuticas personalizadas

Considere las oportunidades potenciales de fusión o adquisición

La compañía evaluó 12 objetivos de fusión y adquisición potenciales en el dominio de investigación de anticuerpos. El presupuesto de evaluación preliminar fue de $ 3.7 millones en 2022.

Empresa objetivo	Valuación	Ajuste estratégico
Innovaciones mabtech	$ 85.6 millones	Alta compatibilidad
AntibodyPro Research	$ 62.3 millones	Compatibilidad moderada

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Market Penetration for AbCellera Biologics Inc. is about maximizing revenue from your existing base of biopharma partners by deepening their engagement with your core antibody discovery platform. This is the lowest-risk growth path, but it relies on the clinical success and pipeline progression of your current collaborators.

As of Q3 2025, you have a cumulative total of 103 partner-initiated programs with downstream participation. Your research fee revenue, which is the immediate, non-milestone income from this activity, was up 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025. This growth shows the platform is sticky, but the real prize is the downstream value-the milestone payments and royalties-which represent the vast majority of a program's potential value.

Increase the average number of programs per existing partner

Your goal here is to move partners from a single-project engagement to a multi-program relationship, making the platform their preferred discovery engine. Based on the cumulative 103 programs and a stated history of working with over 40 partners, your current average is roughly 2.5 programs per partner. Our target is to increase this to an average of 3.5 programs per partner by year-end 2025.

Here's the quick math: reaching 3.5 programs per partner, assuming a stable base of 40 partners, means securing a total of 140 programs. That requires adding 37 new partner-initiated programs in the next year, which is a defintely aggressive but necessary target to stabilize research fee revenue and expand the long-term milestone funnel.

Negotiate higher success-based milestone payments on existing collaborations that progress into Phase 2 trials

The core of your business model is the value captured as programs advance. With a cumulative total of 18 molecules having advanced into the clinic as of Q3 2025, the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 is the next critical inflection point for revenue. Milestone payments are typically structured to increase significantly at this stage.

• Mandate a 15% increase in the Phase 2 entry milestone fee for all new contracts signed in 2026.
• Renegotiate terms with partners whose Phase 1 programs (like the 18 molecules in the clinic) show promising initial safety and tolerability data.
• Focus on the fact that your platform de-risks the early stages, justifying a higher share of the later-stage success.

Offer tiered subscription models for platform access, incentivizing higher-volume use over single-project contracts

Single-project research fees are volatile, as seen by the revenue fluctuation in 2025. Moving partners to a committed, multi-year access model creates predictable, recurring revenue. This is about shifting the sales conversation from a transaction fee to a platform-as-a-service (PaaS) fee.

A tiered model would look something like this, offering a discount on the per-program fee in exchange for volume commitment:

Tiered Access Model	Annual Commitment (Programs)	Estimated Annual Research Fee Revenue	Discount on Per-Program Fee
Standard Access	1	$1.5M - $3.0M	0%
Preferred Partner	3+	$4.0M - $8.0M	10%
Strategic Alliance	5+	$7.5M - $15.0M	15%

Focus sales efforts on the top 20% of current partners who represent 80% of discovery fee revenue

This is the Pareto Principle applied to your partner base. If you have 40 partners, the top 8 partners (20% of 40) are likely responsible for the majority of your Q3 2025 research fee revenue of approximately $9.0 million. You need to dedicate senior business development resources to these key accounts to secure renewals and expansions.

• Assign a dedicated Vice President of Business Development to each of the top 8 partners.
• Prioritize these partners for access to new platform features, such as the OrthoMab™ bispecific engineering technology.
• Target a 25% increase in research fees from this top cohort in 2026 by securing multi-target, multi-year master agreements.

Run targeted campaigns demonstrating the platform's speed advantage, cutting discovery timelines by 30%

Your platform's speed is a proven competitive differentiator, exemplified by the rapid discovery of the COVID-19 antibody, bamlanivimab, which went from target to clinical candidate in just 3 months. This is a massive compression of the traditional timeline, which can take years.

You need to translate that 'crisis speed' into a reliable, commercial metric. Cutting discovery timelines by 30% is a realistic, marketable claim that directly impacts your partners' return on investment (ROI). For a typical 4-year discovery-to-IND (Investigational New Drug) process, a 30% reduction saves over a year, significantly accelerating their time to potential milestone revenue.

Action: Marketing needs to create a case study showing a $10M net present value (NPV) improvement for a partner's program due to the time saved, making the platform's cost a negligible factor.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

Market Development for AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) means taking its validated, high-throughput antibody discovery platform to new customer types and new geographic regions. The core technology is proven, but the challenge lies in navigating new regulatory pathways and establishing trust in markets beyond its current North American and Big Pharma base. This is a critical growth vector, especially as the company shifts to a hybrid model, advancing its own assets while retaining a partnership engine.

Expand Commercial Presence into the Asia-Pacific (APAC) Region

The APAC region, particularly South Korea and Japan, represents a high-value, unexploited market for AbCellera's platform. South Korea's biotech licensing exports, for instance, were robust, reaching $5.5 billion in 2024, demonstrating a clear appetite for innovative drug candidates and development technologies. While AbCellera has not announced a specific 2025 facility or major partnership in Seoul or Tokyo, the opportunity is mapped by competitor activity: in March 2025, a South Korean firm, Alteogen, secured a $1.35 billion licensing deal with AstraZeneca. This shows that APAC companies are willing to pay a premium for platform-driven drug development capabilities. To capture this, AbCellera needs a defintely more localized business development team.

Establish Strategic Partnerships with Large Government or Non-Profit Research Organizations

This is a market where AbCellera already has a strong track record, leveraging its platform for public health and national security initiatives. The company's previous work with the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), led to the rapid discovery of bamlanivimab, a key COVID-19 therapeutic. The near-term opportunity is the NIH's new Research and Development of Vaccines and Monoclonal Antibodies for Pandemic Preparedness (ReVAMPP) network, which is expected to invest up to $100 million annually. This is a clear funding stream to target. For concrete proof of concept, the company's major infrastructure co-investment with the Governments of Canada and British Columbia, announced in 2023, is valued at CA$701 million, with CA$225 million contributed by the Government of Canada, securing long-term government-backed R&D activity.

Target Emerging Biotech Companies with Full-Service Discovery Packages

AbCellera's bread-and-butter is enabling smaller, capital-constrained biotechs to access a fully integrated antibody discovery stack without the multi-hundred-million-dollar capital expenditure. This model is working: as of Q2 2025, the company had a cumulative total of 102 partner-initiated programs with downstreams. This includes collaborations with emerging biotechs like Denali Therapeutics and Empirico. The value proposition is a de-risked path to the clinic, evidenced by AbCellera's platform contributing to 18 molecules advancing into clinical trials as of Q3 2025. The challenge is that this revenue stream is highly dependent on research fees and future milestone payments, which is why the company's 2025 full-year revenue projection is a modest $27.62 million.

Here's the quick math on the core partnership model:

Metric	Value (as of Q3 2025)	Implication for Market Development
2025 Full Year Revenue (Est.)	$27.62 million	Low current revenue highlights the need for new market segments.
Total Available Liquidity	$680 million	Strong balance sheet allows for aggressive, un-partnered market expansion (e.g., APAC office).
Cumulative Partner Programs	102	The core platform is highly successful in the existing biopharma market.
Molecules in Clinic	18	Validates the platform for new customers, reducing perceived risk.

Launch a Dedicated Sales Team Focused on Non-Traditional Biopharma Sectors

The current focus is exclusively on human therapeutics, spanning oncology, immunology, and metabolic conditions. The non-traditional biopharma market-think large-scale agricultural, veterinary, or industrial enzyme applications-is a completely new market segment for the platform. This is a blue-ocean opportunity. While there are no announced 2025 partnerships in this area, the core platform's ability to discover antibodies against complex targets, like GPCRs and ion channels, is a transferable skill. Moving into this market would require a dedicated, small team to translate the human-health value proposition to veterinary drug development, which is a different regulatory and commercial beast entirely.

Secure a Major Collaboration with a Top-Three Global Generic Drug Manufacturer

This is a strategic pivot away from novel therapeutics toward biosimilars (biologic generics) or platform-enabled drug lifecycle management. The goal is to diversify the partner base beyond the current focus on major innovative pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and AbbVie. A partnership with a top generic manufacturer would open a new, high-volume revenue channel focused on process optimization and biosimilar development, rather than novel discovery. This is an unexecuted opportunity that would immediately shift the revenue mix from high-risk, high-reward milestones to more predictable service fees and royalties on approved biosimilars, offering a counterbalance to the current net loss of $57.1 million reported in Q3 2025.

Next Step: Business Development team to present a detailed market entry strategy and budget for a South Korea/Japan regional office by the end of Q4 2025.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

The Product Development strategy for AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) is a pivot from a pure technology platform model to a clinical-stage developer, meaning you are building new, proprietary drug candidates and advanced service modules to sell to your existing, trusted biopharma partner base. This approach leverages your core antibody discovery platform, which is defintely a plus, and shifts the risk-reward profile significantly toward higher-margin, downstream revenue.

Your R&D spending in 2025 clearly maps to this strategy. For the first three quarters of 2025 alone, Research & Development expenses totaled approximately $136.7 million, a substantial investment that is funding the transition. A greater proportion of this is now dedicated to internal programs, including $15.0 million in Q3 2025 specifically for advancing your two lead clinical assets. This is a high-stakes bet on clinical success, but it gives you a product to license or co-develop, moving beyond just research fees.

Expanding the Platform's Product Offerings

The core of this strategy is to turn internal platform capabilities into sellable, high-value modules for existing partners like AbbVie and Eli Lilly and Company. This means integrating services that currently fall outside the core discovery process, making the platform a one-stop shop for antibody development.

• Next-Generation Modalities: You expanded your collaboration with AbbVie in 2025 to develop T-cell engagers for oncology, which is a new, complex antibody modality for an existing partner, moving beyond traditional monoclonal antibodies.
• Manufacturability and Stability: The completion of your new Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) clinical manufacturing facility by the end of 2025 is a new product offering-it allows you to offer in-house drug development and contract manufacturing services to partners, ensuring a seamless handoff from discovery to clinical trial material.
• Bispecific and Multi-specific Module: Developing and launching a next-generation bispecific or multi-specific antibody discovery module on the platform is a direct technical upgrade that increases the value of every new program start.
• Proprietary Cell Line Development: Integrating a proprietary cell line development service directly into the existing discovery workflow is a logical, high-margin extension that captures value currently lost to external vendors.

Investment in AI/ML and Clinical Pipeline

The biggest investment in Product Development is in your internal pipeline, which acts as a proof-of-concept for the entire platform. The total R&D spend shows the commitment. Here's the quick math: your Q3 2025 R&D expense was $55.0 million. Within that budget, a significant portion is allocated to enhancing the core AI/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms, which are the engine of discovery.

While the total R&D is much higher, an estimated allocation of approximately $50 million in 2025 R&D is dedicated to enhancing the AI/Machine Learning algorithms for predicting clinical success markers, a crucial step to de-risk the pipeline and increase the value of partner programs. What this estimate hides is that this AI/ML work benefits both your internal programs (ABCL635, ABCL575) and all partner programs simultaneously.

The success of this strategy hinges on the clinical progress of your internal assets. As of Q3 2025, you advanced a cumulative total of 18 molecules into the clinic, up from 14 in Q3 2024, showing a clear acceleration of product development.

2025 Product Development Focus Area	Key Initiative/Product	2025 Financial Metric (Q1-Q3)	Strategic Goal
Internal Pipeline Development	ABCL635 (VMS) & ABCL575 (Atopic Dermatitis)	Q1-Q3 2025 R&D Spend: $136.7 million	Generate high-value, royalty-bearing assets and validate platform technology.
Platform Technology Enhancement	AI/ML Algorithms for Clinical Prediction	Estimated Allocation: $50 million within 2025 R&D	Improve hit-to-lead success rate for existing partners, leading to higher milestone payments.
New Service Capability	GMP Clinical Manufacturing Facility	Completion expected by end of 2025	Offer a new, integrated, high-margin service for optimizing antibody manufacturability and stability.
New Therapeutic Modality	T-cell Engagers (with AbbVie)	Expanded collaboration in 2025	Diversify the platform's offering into complex, high-demand therapeutic areas like oncology.

This Product Development focus is the core reason the net loss widened to $57.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $51.1 million in Q3 2024. You are trading short-term profitability for long-term, high-value assets. The next step is for the Clinical Development team to deliver initial Phase 1 data for ABCL635 and ABCL575 by mid-2026, which is the critical catalyst for this strategy.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

Diversification for AbCellera Biologics Inc. is the highest-risk, highest-reward strategy, moving the company beyond its core competency of being a technology platform provider for partners and into the highly competitive market of drug ownership and commercialization.

This shift means developing new therapeutic assets for new markets, a move that requires significant capital and a tolerance for the inherent failure rate of clinical trials. The company's substantial liquidity of approximately $680 million as of Q3 2025, which includes $523 million in cash and equivalents, provides the necessary multi-year runway for this aggressive strategy. This is a defintely a bet on their AI-powered platform's ability to beat the industry average for discovery success.

Transitioning to Wholly-Owned Therapeutic Assets

The most critical diversification move is the transition to a clinical-stage biotech by developing wholly-owned therapeutic candidates. This changes the revenue model from primarily research fees and milestones to potentially massive downstream royalties and product sales, but it also drives up current costs significantly. For example, R&D expenses surged to $55.0 million in Q3 2025, up from $41.0 million in Q3 2024, with $15.0 million specifically allocated to two internal programs in that quarter alone.

The internal pipeline targets high-value, unmet medical need areas, moving AbCellera Biologics into direct competition with major pharmaceutical companies. They are aiming to introduce at least two new molecules into the clinic annually. Here's the quick math: each successful drug could generate billions in peak sales, but the initial investment widens the net loss, which was $57.1 million in Q3 2025.

Key wholly-owned programs advancing in 2025 include:

• ABCL635: A potential first-in-class antibody for non-hormonal treatment of VMS (hot flashes) associated with menopause, currently in Phase 1 trials.
• ABCL575: An investigational antibody for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, also in Phase 1, engineered for less frequent dosing.
• ABCL688: Advanced into IND-enabling studies in Q2 2025, targeting an undisclosed indication in autoimmunity.

Wholly-Owned Asset	Target Therapeutic Area (New Market)	2025 Status/Milestone	Strategic Diversification Risk/Reward
ABCL635	Endocrinology / Women's Health (VMS)	Progressing through Phase 1 clinical trials.	High Reward: Targeting a non-hormonal VMS market estimated at $2 billion.
ABCL575	Immunology (Atopic Dermatitis)	Phase 1 clinical trial initiated in Q3 2025.	Medium-High Risk: Highly competitive market, but platform differentiation (dosing) is key.
T-Cell Engagers (4 Molecules)	Oncology and Autoimmunity	Focused preclinical work and platform development.	Highest Reward: Oncology assets command premium valuations; requires platform extension beyond simple antibodies.

Venture Incubation and Strategic Equity

A second, less capital-intensive diversification path is acting as a venture incubator, co-founding biotech companies and taking strategic equity and royalty stakes. This is a smart way to get exposure to the commercial upside of the platform without bearing the full R&D cost and risk.

This model is already active. For instance, AbCellera Biologics is a founding partner in Abdera Therapeutics, which achieved IND clearance and Fast Track designation for its lead program, ABD-147. Another successful example is Invetx, in which AbCellera Biologics was a founding partner and held a mid-single-digit equity ownership position; Invetx was acquired for up to $520 million in total consideration. This shows the platform's value can be unlocked in non-human health markets, too.

Next Action: Finance should model the expected cash flow impact of advancing ABCL635 and ABCL575 to Phase 2, projecting required R&D spend against a 5% probability-adjusted royalty revenue by Q2 2026.