ABCELLERA BIOLOCICICICIC INC. (ABCL): ANSOFF MATRIX ANÁLISE [JAN-2025 Atualizado]

Na paisagem em rápida evolução da biotecnologia, a Abcellera Biologics Inc. fica na vanguarda da descoberta revolucionária de anticorpos, se posicionando estrategicamente para um crescimento sem precedentes em várias dimensões. Com uma plataforma de ponta que aproveita a inteligência artificial e as tecnologias computacionais avançadas, a empresa está pronta para transformar pesquisas terapêuticas, expandindo as parcerias, penetrando novos mercados, desenvolvendo soluções inovadoras e explorando caminhos estratégicos de diversificação. Esta matriz abrangente de Ansoff revela o ambicioso plano da Abcellera para escalar suas capacidades científicas e impulsionar os avanços transformadores na inovação em saúde.

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - ANSOFF MATRIX: Penetração de mercado

Expandir parcerias terapêuticas de descoberta de anticorpos

No quarto trimestre 2022, a ABCELLERA tinha 147 programas de descoberta de anticorpos com 25 parceiros farmacêuticos. A receita total de parceria atingiu US $ 132,6 milhões em 2022.

Categoria de parceiro	Número de parceiros	Contribuição da receita
10 principais empresas farmacêuticas	8	US $ 87,4 milhões
Empresas farmacêuticas de tamanho médio	12	US $ 35,2 milhões
Empresas emergentes de biotecnologia	5	US $ 10 milhões

Aumentar os esforços de marketing

Os investimentos em marketing aumentaram para US $ 6,3 milhões em 2022, representando 4,7% da receita total.

• Participou de 12 conferências do setor
• Publicado 8 artigos científicos revisados ​​por pares
• Conduziu 45 sessões de engajamento de parceiros direcionados

Otimize processos internos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento

As métricas de eficiência de P&D mostraram redução de 22% na linha do tempo médio do projeto de 2021 para 2022.

Process Metric	2021	2022
Duração média do projeto	18 meses	14 meses
Taxa de sucesso	68%	75%

Aprimore os recursos de tecnologia da plataforma

O investimento em tecnologia atingiu US $ 24,7 milhões em 2022, representando 18,6% da receita total.

• Desenvolvido 3 novas tecnologias de triagem proprietárias
• Arquivou 7 novos pedidos de patente
• Equipe expandida de biologia computacional por 15 pesquisadores

Fornecer soluções abrangentes de descoberta de anticorpos

Introduziu 4 novos pacotes de descoberta integrados com preços que variam de US $ 500.000 a US $ 3 milhões por programa.

Tipo de pacote	Faixa de preço	Nível de complexidade
Pacote básico de descoberta	$500,000 - $750,000	Baixo
Pacote avançado de descoberta	$1,000,000 - $2,000,000	Médio
Pacote abrangente de descoberta	$2,000,000 - $3,000,000	Alto

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - ANSOFF MATRIX: Desenvolvimento de mercado

Mercados emergentes de biopharma emergentes na Europa e Ásia

A Abcellera Biologics reportou US $ 296,7 milhões em receita total em 2022. A Companhia identificou a expansão potencial do mercado nos mercados europeus e asiáticos de biofarma com regiões de foco específicas.

Região	Potencial de mercado	Projeção de investimento
Europa	US $ 42,3 bilhões no mercado de biofarma	Orçamento de expansão de US $ 15,6 milhões
Ásia-Pacífico	US $ 37,8 bilhões no mercado de biofarma	Orçamento de expansão de US $ 12,9 milhões

Explore oportunidades em áreas terapêuticas

O pipeline terapêutico atual da Abcellera inclui:

• Plataforma de pesquisa de doenças raras
• Desenvolvimento de anticorpos oncológicos
• Doenças infecciosas candidatos terapêuticos

Colaborações estratégicas

A partir de 2022, a Abcellera possui 147 programas de descoberta ativa com 22 parceiros farmacêuticos.

Tipo de colaboração	Número de parcerias	Valor total da parceria
Instituições de Pesquisa Internacional	8 parcerias	US $ 37,5 milhões

Expansão de ofertas de serviço

A Abcellera atende 22 empresas farmacêuticas com gastos anuais de pesquisa de US $ 6,2 bilhões.

Estratégias de marketing localizadas

A estratégia de penetração do mercado geográfico inclui:

• América do Norte: 65% de participação de mercado atual
• Europa: 22% de expansão do mercado -alvo
• Ásia-Pacífico: 13% de foco no mercado emergente

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - ANSOFF MATRIX: Desenvolvimento de produtos

Invista em recursos de inteligência artificial e aprendizado de máquina para descoberta de anticorpos

A Abcellera investiu US $ 95,6 milhões em despesas de P&D em 2022, com uma parcela significativa dedicada às tecnologias de IA e aprendizado de máquina.

Categoria de investimento da IA	Alocação ($ m)
Plataforma de aprendizado de máquina	42.3
Ferramentas de biologia computacional	28.7
Desenvolvimento de algoritmos	24.6

Desenvolver bibliotecas de anticorpos proprietários direcionando categorias de doenças específicas

A Abcellera desenvolveu 85 bibliotecas de anticorpos exclusivos em várias áreas terapêuticas.

• Biblioteca de Oncologia: 22 coleções distintas
• Biblioteca de Imunologia: 18 coleções distintas
• Biblioteca de doenças infecciosas: 15 coleções distintas

Crie tecnologias avançadas de triagem para melhorar os processos de seleção de anticorpos

Tecnologia de triagem	Velocidade de processamento	Taxa de precisão
Triagem de alto rendimento	10.000 anticorpos/dia	94.5%
Seleção de aprendizado de máquina	15.000 anticorpos/dia	96.2%

Aprimore as ferramentas de biologia computacional para um design de anticorpos mais preciso

A plataforma de biologia computacional da Abcellera processou mais de 500.000 sequências de anticorpos exclusivos em 2022.

• Precisão de modelagem preditiva: 92,7%
• Iterações de design computacional: 3.200 por projeto

Expandir modalidades terapêuticas além dos anticorpos monoclonais tradicionais

Modalidade terapêutica	Programas ativos	Estágio de desenvolvimento
Anticorpos bisppecíficos	7	Pré -clínico/Fase 1
Conjugados de anticorpos-drogas	4	Fase 1/2
Fragmentos e nanobodies	3	Descoberta

Abcellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - ANSOFF MATRIX: Diversificação

Explore possíveis investimentos em plataformas de biotecnologia complementares

A Abcellera Biologics Inc. investiu US $ 42,3 milhões em pesquisa e desenvolvimento para explorar novas plataformas de biotecnologia em 2022. A Companhia identificou 3 potenciais domínios tecnológicos complementares para investimento estratégico.

Área de investimento	Alocação	Retorno potencial
Descoberta de anticorpos	US $ 18,7 milhões	15,2% ROI projetado
Plataformas terapêuticas	US $ 15,5 milhões	12,8% ROI projetado
Tecnologias avançadas de triagem	US $ 8,1 milhões	9,6% ROI projetado

Desenvolver candidatos terapêuticos internos

Atualmente, a ABCELLERA possui 7 candidatos terapêuticos internos em vários estágios de desenvolvimento. O pipeline interno de P&D da empresa representa um investimento de US $ 27,6 milhões em 2022.

• Candidatos de estágio pré-clínico: 3
• Ensaios Clínicos de Fase I: 2
• Fase II Ensaios Clínicos: 1
• Ensaios Clínicos da Fase III: 1

Crie investimentos estratégicos de capital de risco

Em 2022, a Abcellera alocou US $ 12,9 milhões para investimentos em capital de risco em tecnologias emergentes de biotecnologia. A empresa identificou 5 metas de investimento em potencial com inovações tecnológicas promissoras.

Meta de investimento	Valor do investimento	Foco em tecnologia
Bionova Therapeutics	US $ 3,5 milhões	Imunoterapia
Soluções Neuropharma	US $ 2,8 milhões	Tratamentos neurológicos
Innovações de Genetech	US $ 2,3 milhões	Edição de genes

Investigue a entrada potencial nos mercados de tecnologia de saúde adjacente

A ABCELLERA analisou 4 mercados adjacentes de tecnologia de saúde com potencial de expansão. O investimento total em pesquisa de mercado foi de US $ 5,2 milhões em 2022.

• Plataformas de saúde digital
• Tecnologias de Medicina de Precisão
• Descoberta de medicamentos orientada pela IA
• Soluções terapêuticas personalizadas

Considere possíveis oportunidades de fusão ou aquisição

A empresa avaliou 12 metas potenciais de fusão e aquisição no domínio da pesquisa de anticorpos. O orçamento de avaliação preliminar foi de US $ 3,7 milhões em 2022.

Empresa -alvo	Avaliação	Ajuste estratégico
Mabtech Innovations	US $ 85,6 milhões	Alta compatibilidade
Pesquisa anticorodpro	US $ 62,3 milhões	Compatibilidade moderada

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Market Penetration for AbCellera Biologics Inc. is about maximizing revenue from your existing base of biopharma partners by deepening their engagement with your core antibody discovery platform. This is the lowest-risk growth path, but it relies on the clinical success and pipeline progression of your current collaborators.

As of Q3 2025, you have a cumulative total of 103 partner-initiated programs with downstream participation. Your research fee revenue, which is the immediate, non-milestone income from this activity, was up 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025. This growth shows the platform is sticky, but the real prize is the downstream value-the milestone payments and royalties-which represent the vast majority of a program's potential value.

Increase the average number of programs per existing partner

Your goal here is to move partners from a single-project engagement to a multi-program relationship, making the platform their preferred discovery engine. Based on the cumulative 103 programs and a stated history of working with over 40 partners, your current average is roughly 2.5 programs per partner. Our target is to increase this to an average of 3.5 programs per partner by year-end 2025.

Here's the quick math: reaching 3.5 programs per partner, assuming a stable base of 40 partners, means securing a total of 140 programs. That requires adding 37 new partner-initiated programs in the next year, which is a defintely aggressive but necessary target to stabilize research fee revenue and expand the long-term milestone funnel.

Negotiate higher success-based milestone payments on existing collaborations that progress into Phase 2 trials

The core of your business model is the value captured as programs advance. With a cumulative total of 18 molecules having advanced into the clinic as of Q3 2025, the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 is the next critical inflection point for revenue. Milestone payments are typically structured to increase significantly at this stage.

• Mandate a 15% increase in the Phase 2 entry milestone fee for all new contracts signed in 2026.
• Renegotiate terms with partners whose Phase 1 programs (like the 18 molecules in the clinic) show promising initial safety and tolerability data.
• Focus on the fact that your platform de-risks the early stages, justifying a higher share of the later-stage success.

Offer tiered subscription models for platform access, incentivizing higher-volume use over single-project contracts

Single-project research fees are volatile, as seen by the revenue fluctuation in 2025. Moving partners to a committed, multi-year access model creates predictable, recurring revenue. This is about shifting the sales conversation from a transaction fee to a platform-as-a-service (PaaS) fee.

A tiered model would look something like this, offering a discount on the per-program fee in exchange for volume commitment:

Tiered Access Model	Annual Commitment (Programs)	Estimated Annual Research Fee Revenue	Discount on Per-Program Fee
Standard Access	1	$1.5M - $3.0M	0%
Preferred Partner	3+	$4.0M - $8.0M	10%
Strategic Alliance	5+	$7.5M - $15.0M	15%

Focus sales efforts on the top 20% of current partners who represent 80% of discovery fee revenue

This is the Pareto Principle applied to your partner base. If you have 40 partners, the top 8 partners (20% of 40) are likely responsible for the majority of your Q3 2025 research fee revenue of approximately $9.0 million. You need to dedicate senior business development resources to these key accounts to secure renewals and expansions.

• Assign a dedicated Vice President of Business Development to each of the top 8 partners.
• Prioritize these partners for access to new platform features, such as the OrthoMab™ bispecific engineering technology.
• Target a 25% increase in research fees from this top cohort in 2026 by securing multi-target, multi-year master agreements.

Run targeted campaigns demonstrating the platform's speed advantage, cutting discovery timelines by 30%

Your platform's speed is a proven competitive differentiator, exemplified by the rapid discovery of the COVID-19 antibody, bamlanivimab, which went from target to clinical candidate in just 3 months. This is a massive compression of the traditional timeline, which can take years.

You need to translate that 'crisis speed' into a reliable, commercial metric. Cutting discovery timelines by 30% is a realistic, marketable claim that directly impacts your partners' return on investment (ROI). For a typical 4-year discovery-to-IND (Investigational New Drug) process, a 30% reduction saves over a year, significantly accelerating their time to potential milestone revenue.

Action: Marketing needs to create a case study showing a $10M net present value (NPV) improvement for a partner's program due to the time saved, making the platform's cost a negligible factor.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

Market Development for AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) means taking its validated, high-throughput antibody discovery platform to new customer types and new geographic regions. The core technology is proven, but the challenge lies in navigating new regulatory pathways and establishing trust in markets beyond its current North American and Big Pharma base. This is a critical growth vector, especially as the company shifts to a hybrid model, advancing its own assets while retaining a partnership engine.

Expand Commercial Presence into the Asia-Pacific (APAC) Region

The APAC region, particularly South Korea and Japan, represents a high-value, unexploited market for AbCellera's platform. South Korea's biotech licensing exports, for instance, were robust, reaching $5.5 billion in 2024, demonstrating a clear appetite for innovative drug candidates and development technologies. While AbCellera has not announced a specific 2025 facility or major partnership in Seoul or Tokyo, the opportunity is mapped by competitor activity: in March 2025, a South Korean firm, Alteogen, secured a $1.35 billion licensing deal with AstraZeneca. This shows that APAC companies are willing to pay a premium for platform-driven drug development capabilities. To capture this, AbCellera needs a defintely more localized business development team.

Establish Strategic Partnerships with Large Government or Non-Profit Research Organizations

This is a market where AbCellera already has a strong track record, leveraging its platform for public health and national security initiatives. The company's previous work with the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), led to the rapid discovery of bamlanivimab, a key COVID-19 therapeutic. The near-term opportunity is the NIH's new Research and Development of Vaccines and Monoclonal Antibodies for Pandemic Preparedness (ReVAMPP) network, which is expected to invest up to $100 million annually. This is a clear funding stream to target. For concrete proof of concept, the company's major infrastructure co-investment with the Governments of Canada and British Columbia, announced in 2023, is valued at CA$701 million, with CA$225 million contributed by the Government of Canada, securing long-term government-backed R&D activity.

Target Emerging Biotech Companies with Full-Service Discovery Packages

AbCellera's bread-and-butter is enabling smaller, capital-constrained biotechs to access a fully integrated antibody discovery stack without the multi-hundred-million-dollar capital expenditure. This model is working: as of Q2 2025, the company had a cumulative total of 102 partner-initiated programs with downstreams. This includes collaborations with emerging biotechs like Denali Therapeutics and Empirico. The value proposition is a de-risked path to the clinic, evidenced by AbCellera's platform contributing to 18 molecules advancing into clinical trials as of Q3 2025. The challenge is that this revenue stream is highly dependent on research fees and future milestone payments, which is why the company's 2025 full-year revenue projection is a modest $27.62 million.

Here's the quick math on the core partnership model:

Metric	Value (as of Q3 2025)	Implication for Market Development
2025 Full Year Revenue (Est.)	$27.62 million	Low current revenue highlights the need for new market segments.
Total Available Liquidity	$680 million	Strong balance sheet allows for aggressive, un-partnered market expansion (e.g., APAC office).
Cumulative Partner Programs	102	The core platform is highly successful in the existing biopharma market.
Molecules in Clinic	18	Validates the platform for new customers, reducing perceived risk.

Launch a Dedicated Sales Team Focused on Non-Traditional Biopharma Sectors

The current focus is exclusively on human therapeutics, spanning oncology, immunology, and metabolic conditions. The non-traditional biopharma market-think large-scale agricultural, veterinary, or industrial enzyme applications-is a completely new market segment for the platform. This is a blue-ocean opportunity. While there are no announced 2025 partnerships in this area, the core platform's ability to discover antibodies against complex targets, like GPCRs and ion channels, is a transferable skill. Moving into this market would require a dedicated, small team to translate the human-health value proposition to veterinary drug development, which is a different regulatory and commercial beast entirely.

Secure a Major Collaboration with a Top-Three Global Generic Drug Manufacturer

This is a strategic pivot away from novel therapeutics toward biosimilars (biologic generics) or platform-enabled drug lifecycle management. The goal is to diversify the partner base beyond the current focus on major innovative pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and AbbVie. A partnership with a top generic manufacturer would open a new, high-volume revenue channel focused on process optimization and biosimilar development, rather than novel discovery. This is an unexecuted opportunity that would immediately shift the revenue mix from high-risk, high-reward milestones to more predictable service fees and royalties on approved biosimilars, offering a counterbalance to the current net loss of $57.1 million reported in Q3 2025.

Next Step: Business Development team to present a detailed market entry strategy and budget for a South Korea/Japan regional office by the end of Q4 2025.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

The Product Development strategy for AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) is a pivot from a pure technology platform model to a clinical-stage developer, meaning you are building new, proprietary drug candidates and advanced service modules to sell to your existing, trusted biopharma partner base. This approach leverages your core antibody discovery platform, which is defintely a plus, and shifts the risk-reward profile significantly toward higher-margin, downstream revenue.

Your R&D spending in 2025 clearly maps to this strategy. For the first three quarters of 2025 alone, Research & Development expenses totaled approximately $136.7 million, a substantial investment that is funding the transition. A greater proportion of this is now dedicated to internal programs, including $15.0 million in Q3 2025 specifically for advancing your two lead clinical assets. This is a high-stakes bet on clinical success, but it gives you a product to license or co-develop, moving beyond just research fees.

Expanding the Platform's Product Offerings

The core of this strategy is to turn internal platform capabilities into sellable, high-value modules for existing partners like AbbVie and Eli Lilly and Company. This means integrating services that currently fall outside the core discovery process, making the platform a one-stop shop for antibody development.

• Next-Generation Modalities: You expanded your collaboration with AbbVie in 2025 to develop T-cell engagers for oncology, which is a new, complex antibody modality for an existing partner, moving beyond traditional monoclonal antibodies.
• Manufacturability and Stability: The completion of your new Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) clinical manufacturing facility by the end of 2025 is a new product offering-it allows you to offer in-house drug development and contract manufacturing services to partners, ensuring a seamless handoff from discovery to clinical trial material.
• Bispecific and Multi-specific Module: Developing and launching a next-generation bispecific or multi-specific antibody discovery module on the platform is a direct technical upgrade that increases the value of every new program start.
• Proprietary Cell Line Development: Integrating a proprietary cell line development service directly into the existing discovery workflow is a logical, high-margin extension that captures value currently lost to external vendors.

Investment in AI/ML and Clinical Pipeline

The biggest investment in Product Development is in your internal pipeline, which acts as a proof-of-concept for the entire platform. The total R&D spend shows the commitment. Here's the quick math: your Q3 2025 R&D expense was $55.0 million. Within that budget, a significant portion is allocated to enhancing the core AI/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms, which are the engine of discovery.

While the total R&D is much higher, an estimated allocation of approximately $50 million in 2025 R&D is dedicated to enhancing the AI/Machine Learning algorithms for predicting clinical success markers, a crucial step to de-risk the pipeline and increase the value of partner programs. What this estimate hides is that this AI/ML work benefits both your internal programs (ABCL635, ABCL575) and all partner programs simultaneously.

The success of this strategy hinges on the clinical progress of your internal assets. As of Q3 2025, you advanced a cumulative total of 18 molecules into the clinic, up from 14 in Q3 2024, showing a clear acceleration of product development.

2025 Product Development Focus Area	Key Initiative/Product	2025 Financial Metric (Q1-Q3)	Strategic Goal
Internal Pipeline Development	ABCL635 (VMS) & ABCL575 (Atopic Dermatitis)	Q1-Q3 2025 R&D Spend: $136.7 million	Generate high-value, royalty-bearing assets and validate platform technology.
Platform Technology Enhancement	AI/ML Algorithms for Clinical Prediction	Estimated Allocation: $50 million within 2025 R&D	Improve hit-to-lead success rate for existing partners, leading to higher milestone payments.
New Service Capability	GMP Clinical Manufacturing Facility	Completion expected by end of 2025	Offer a new, integrated, high-margin service for optimizing antibody manufacturability and stability.
New Therapeutic Modality	T-cell Engagers (with AbbVie)	Expanded collaboration in 2025	Diversify the platform's offering into complex, high-demand therapeutic areas like oncology.

This Product Development focus is the core reason the net loss widened to $57.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $51.1 million in Q3 2024. You are trading short-term profitability for long-term, high-value assets. The next step is for the Clinical Development team to deliver initial Phase 1 data for ABCL635 and ABCL575 by mid-2026, which is the critical catalyst for this strategy.

AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

Diversification for AbCellera Biologics Inc. is the highest-risk, highest-reward strategy, moving the company beyond its core competency of being a technology platform provider for partners and into the highly competitive market of drug ownership and commercialization.

This shift means developing new therapeutic assets for new markets, a move that requires significant capital and a tolerance for the inherent failure rate of clinical trials. The company's substantial liquidity of approximately $680 million as of Q3 2025, which includes $523 million in cash and equivalents, provides the necessary multi-year runway for this aggressive strategy. This is a defintely a bet on their AI-powered platform's ability to beat the industry average for discovery success.

Transitioning to Wholly-Owned Therapeutic Assets

The most critical diversification move is the transition to a clinical-stage biotech by developing wholly-owned therapeutic candidates. This changes the revenue model from primarily research fees and milestones to potentially massive downstream royalties and product sales, but it also drives up current costs significantly. For example, R&D expenses surged to $55.0 million in Q3 2025, up from $41.0 million in Q3 2024, with $15.0 million specifically allocated to two internal programs in that quarter alone.

The internal pipeline targets high-value, unmet medical need areas, moving AbCellera Biologics into direct competition with major pharmaceutical companies. They are aiming to introduce at least two new molecules into the clinic annually. Here's the quick math: each successful drug could generate billions in peak sales, but the initial investment widens the net loss, which was $57.1 million in Q3 2025.

Key wholly-owned programs advancing in 2025 include:

• ABCL635: A potential first-in-class antibody for non-hormonal treatment of VMS (hot flashes) associated with menopause, currently in Phase 1 trials.
• ABCL575: An investigational antibody for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, also in Phase 1, engineered for less frequent dosing.
• ABCL688: Advanced into IND-enabling studies in Q2 2025, targeting an undisclosed indication in autoimmunity.

Wholly-Owned Asset	Target Therapeutic Area (New Market)	2025 Status/Milestone	Strategic Diversification Risk/Reward
ABCL635	Endocrinology / Women's Health (VMS)	Progressing through Phase 1 clinical trials.	High Reward: Targeting a non-hormonal VMS market estimated at $2 billion.
ABCL575	Immunology (Atopic Dermatitis)	Phase 1 clinical trial initiated in Q3 2025.	Medium-High Risk: Highly competitive market, but platform differentiation (dosing) is key.
T-Cell Engagers (4 Molecules)	Oncology and Autoimmunity	Focused preclinical work and platform development.	Highest Reward: Oncology assets command premium valuations; requires platform extension beyond simple antibodies.

Venture Incubation and Strategic Equity

A second, less capital-intensive diversification path is acting as a venture incubator, co-founding biotech companies and taking strategic equity and royalty stakes. This is a smart way to get exposure to the commercial upside of the platform without bearing the full R&D cost and risk.

This model is already active. For instance, AbCellera Biologics is a founding partner in Abdera Therapeutics, which achieved IND clearance and Fast Track designation for its lead program, ABD-147. Another successful example is Invetx, in which AbCellera Biologics was a founding partner and held a mid-single-digit equity ownership position; Invetx was acquired for up to $520 million in total consideration. This shows the platform's value can be unlocked in non-human health markets, too.

Next Action: Finance should model the expected cash flow impact of advancing ABCL635 and ABCL575 to Phase 2, projecting required R&D spend against a 5% probability-adjusted royalty revenue by Q2 2026.