Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el panorama dinámico de la banca colombiana, Grupo Aval Accions y Valores S.A. (Aval) se encuentra en la encrucijada de transformaciones políticas, económicas y tecnológicas complejas. Este análisis integral de mano presenta la intrincada red de factores externos que dan forma a las decisiones estratégicas de Aval, revelando cómo el banco navega por entornos regulatorios desafiantes, interrupciones tecnológicas y expectativas sociales en evolución. Desde políticas gubernamentales hasta innovación digital, descubra las fuerzas multifacéticas que impulsan una de las instituciones financieras más importantes de Colombia y su notable viaje a través de un ecosistema financiero global cada vez más interconectado.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Las regulaciones del sector bancario del gobierno colombiano impactan en las estrategias operativas de Aval

La superintendencia de la financiación de Colombia hace cumplir Resolución 033 de 2022, que exige requisitos de adecuación de capital estrictos para las instituciones financieras. A partir de 2024, los bancos deben mantener una relación mínima de adecuación de capital de 9%.

Requisito regulatorio	Umbral mínimo	Estado de cumplimiento de Aval
Relación de adecuación de capital	9%	11.2%
Relación de cobertura de liquidez	100%	135%

La estabilidad política en Colombia influye en el clima de inversión del sector financiero

El índice de estabilidad política de Colombia en 2024 se encuentra en -0.3 en una escala de -2.5 a 2.5, lo que indica una previsibilidad política moderada.

• Inversión extranjera directa en el sector financiero colombiano: $ 2.1 mil millones en 2023
• Índice de riesgo político: 4.2 de 10
• PERNILIO DE EFECTIVIDAD DE GOBERNA: 54.8%

Políticas económicas gubernamentales que afectan el sector bancario y de servicios financieros

El Banco Central de Colombia mantuvo su tasa de interés de referencia en 13.25% A partir de enero de 2024, impactando directamente la rentabilidad del sector bancario.

Política económica	Tasa actual	Impacto en Aval
Tasa de interés de referencia	13.25%	Aumento del margen de interés neto
Objetivo de inflación	3% ± 1%	Entorno de préstamos estables

Cambios potenciales en las regulaciones fiscales para las instituciones financieras

El gobierno colombiano propuso un tasa de impuestos corporativos de 35% para instituciones financieras en 2024, en comparación con el 33%anterior.

• Tasa impositiva corporativa propuesta para el sector financiero: 35%
• Carga fiscal adicional estimada para Aval: $ 45.6 millones
• Impuesto sobre los servicios financieros digitales: 4% en ingresos brutos

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

El crecimiento del PIB y la recuperación económica de Colombia

La tasa de crecimiento del PIB de Colombia en 2023 fue del 1.2%, con un crecimiento proyectado del 2.3% para 2024. El desempeño del sector bancario está directamente vinculado a estos indicadores económicos.

Indicador económico	Valor 2023	2024 proyección
Tasa de crecimiento del PIB	1.2%	2.3%
Valor total del PIB	$ 343.5 mil millones	$ 351.7 mil millones

Fluctuaciones de tasa de interés

La tasa de interés de referencia del Banco Central de Colombia a enero de 2024 es del 13,25%, por debajo del 14,25% en septiembre de 2023.

Período	Tasa de interés
Septiembre de 2023	14.25%
Enero de 2024	13.25%

Tasas de inflación

La tasa de inflación de Colombia en 2023 fue del 9.53%, con un objetivo de 3% ± 1 punto porcentual por parte del banco central.

Métrico de inflación	Valor 2023	Objetivo 2024
Tasa de inflación anual	9.53%	3% ± 1%

Tendencias de inversión extranjera

La inversión extranjera directa en Colombia alcanzó los $ 15.9 mil millones en 2023, con servicios financieros que atrajeron aproximadamente $ 2.7 mil millones.

Categoría de inversión	Valor 2023
Inversión total extranjera directa	$ 15.9 mil millones
Inversión de servicios financieros	$ 2.7 mil millones

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Aumento de la adopción de la banca digital entre la población colombiana

A partir de 2023, 72.4% de los adultos colombianos usan plataformas de banca digital. Penetración bancaria móvil alcanzada 65.3% de la población, con un crecimiento significativo en los centros urbanos.

Métrica de banca digital	Porcentaje	Índice de crecimiento
Usuarios de banca móvil	65.3%	18.6% interanual
Usuarios bancarios en línea	72.4%	15.2% interanual
Volumen de transacción digital	58.7%	22.1% interanual

Cambios demográficos hacia consumidores bancarios más jóvenes y expertos en tecnología

Show de demografía de la población colombiana 56.3% de los consumidores bancarios tienen menos de 35 años, con 43.7% Ser consumidores digitales primero.

Grupo de edad	Porcentaje de usuarios bancarios	Compromiso digital
18-24 años	22.4%	91.2%
25-35 años	33.9%	87.5%
36-45 años	24.6%	65.3%

Creciente demanda de inclusión financiera en zonas rurales y urbanas

Las tasas de inclusión financiera en Colombia alcanzaron 68.9% en 2023, con áreas urbanas en 82.3% y áreas rurales en 45.6%.

Tipo de región	Tasa de inclusión financiera	Acceso bancario
Áreas urbanas	82.3%	94.5%
Zonas rurales	45.6%	52.1%
Promedio nacional	68.9%	76.4%

Cambiar las preferencias del consumidor para experiencias bancarias personalizadas

Demanda del consumidor para espectáculos de servicios bancarios personalizados 64.7% preferencia por soluciones financieras personalizadas, con 58.3% Valorar las recomendaciones impulsadas por la IA.

Preferencia de personalización	Porcentaje	Segmento de consumo
Soluciones financieras personalizadas	64.7%	Consumidores expertos en tecnología
Recomendaciones impulsadas por la IA	58.3%	Usuarios bancarios digitales
Ofertas de productos personalizadas	62.1%	Jóvenes profesionales

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Transformación digital rápida en el sector de servicios financieros

Grupo Aval ha invertido $ 127.6 millones en iniciativas de transformación digital en 2023. Las transacciones bancarias digitales aumentaron en un 42.3% en comparación con el año anterior, alcanzando 156 millones de transacciones digitales anualmente.

Métrica de transformación digital	Valor 2023
Inversión digital	$ 127.6 millones
Transacciones digitales	156 millones
Crecimiento de la transacción digital	42.3%

Inversión en plataformas de banca fintech y digital

Grupo Aval asignó $ 45.2 millones específicamente para el desarrollo de la plataforma FinTech en 2023. El banco lanzó 7 nuevos productos de banca digital y 3 aplicaciones de banca móvil avanzadas integradas.

Categoría de inversión fintech	2023 estadísticas
Inversión de plataforma fintech	$ 45.2 millones
Nuevos productos bancarios digitales	7 productos
Aplicaciones de banca móvil	3 aplicaciones

Desafíos de ciberseguridad y desarrollo de infraestructura tecnológica

La inversión de ciberseguridad alcanzó los $ 22.7 millones en 2023. El banco implementó 12 protocolos de seguridad avanzados y mejoró la infraestructura tecnológica en 54 centros de datos.

Métrica de ciberseguridad	Valor 2023
Inversión de ciberseguridad	$ 22.7 millones
Protocolos de seguridad implementados	12 protocolos
Centros de datos actualizados	54 centros

Inteligencia artificial e integración de aprendizaje automático en servicios bancarios

Grupo Aval invirtió $ 38.5 millones en IA y tecnologías de aprendizaje automático. El banco implementó 9 soluciones de servicio al cliente impulsado por la IA y 5 modelos de evaluación de riesgos de aprendizaje automático.

AI y métrica de aprendizaje automático	Valor 2023
Inversión tecnológica de IA	$ 38.5 millones
Soluciones de servicio al cliente de IA	9 soluciones
Modelos de riesgo de aprendizaje automático	5 modelos

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones financieras colombianas y las leyes bancarias

Grupo Aval opera bajo el marco regulatorio del Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia. A partir de 2024, el banco debe adherirse a requisitos específicos de adecuación de capital:

Métrico regulatorio	Porcentaje requerido	Estado de cumplimiento de Aval
Relación mínima de adecuación de capital	9%	11.2%
Relación de capital de nivel 1	4.5%	8.7%

Requisitos regulatorios contra el lavado de dinero y el conocimiento

Aval implementa protocolos integrales de AML/KYC ordenados por la ley colombiana:

• Sistema de monitoreo de transacciones que cubre el 100% de las cuentas de los clientes
• Capacitación anual de cumplimiento para 12,500 empleados
• Informar 1.245 transacciones sospechosas a las autoridades financieras en 2023

Protección de datos y legislación de privacidad en servicios financieros

Métrica de protección de datos	Detalles de cumplimiento
Cumplimiento de la protección de datos personales	Certificado bajo la ley 1581/2012
Inversión de ciberseguridad	COP 45.6 mil millones en 2023
Incidentes de violación de datos	0 Incidentes reportados en 2023

Estándares de gobierno corporativo para instituciones financieras

La estructura de gobierno corporativo de Aval incluye:

• 7 miembros de la junta independiente de 11 miembros de la junta total
• 4 Comités a nivel de la junta que supervisa el riesgo y el cumplimiento
• Calificación del índice de transparencia de 90/100 de evaluaciones de gobierno corporativo

Sanciones de cumplimiento regulatorio en 2023: COP 0 (multos cero impuestos).

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (Aval) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Iniciativas bancarias sostenibles y estrategias de finanzas verdes

Grupo Aval comprometió 1.2 billones de COP a iniciativas de finanzas sostenibles en 2023. La cartera de finanzas verdes del banco llegó a 450 mil millones de COP, lo que representa un aumento del 22% de 2022.

Categoría de finanzas verdes	Monto de inversión (COP)	Porcentaje de cartera
Proyectos de energía renovable	275 mil millones	61.1%
Transporte limpio	85 mil millones	18.9%
Agricultura sostenible	90 mil millones	20%

Compromisos de reducción de emisiones de carbono

Grupo Aval se dirigió al 35% de la reducción en las emisiones operativas de carbono para 2025. La medición actual de la huella de carbono es de 78,500 toneladas métricas CO2 equivalente en 2023.

Fuente de emisión	Emisiones de carbono (toneladas métricas CO2)	Objetivo de reducción
Consumo de energía de la oficina	42,300	25%
Viaje de negocios	18,600	40%
Centros de datos	17,600	30%

Evaluación de riesgos ambientales

Grupo Aval implementó la detección de riesgos ambientales para el 92% de las carteras de préstamos corporativos en 2023. Sectores cubiertos de evaluación de riesgos que incluyen energía, agricultura y fabricación.

Sector	Préstamos totales evaluados	Préstamos de alto riesgo ambiental
Energía	350 mil millones de policías	18%
Agricultura	275 mil millones de policías	12%
Fabricación	425 mil millones de policías	22%

Programas de sostenibilidad de responsabilidad social corporativa

Grupo Aval invirtió 35 mil millones de COP en programas de RSE centrados en la sostenibilidad durante 2023. Las áreas del programa incluyeron educación ambiental, conservación de la biodiversidad e iniciativas de sostenibilidad de la comunidad.

Programa de CSR	Inversión (COP)	Alcance de beneficiario
Educación ambiental	12 mil millones	45,000 estudiantes
Conservación de la biodiversidad	15 mil millones	3 Parques Nacionales
Sostenibilidad de la comunidad	8 mil millones	12 comunidades rurales

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Increasing demand for digital-first financial services, especially from younger demographics.

You are seeing a relentless push toward digital-first financial services, driven by younger, mobile-native customers who expect instant, seamless experiences. Grupo Aval is responding, with digital transformation as a core strategic priority for 2025. The challenge is not just launching an app, but achieving high-volume adoption that shifts transaction costs away from the expensive physical network, which still includes 996 Branches and 2,833 ATMs.

The company is leveraging its in-house tech firm, ADL Digital Lab, which is actively developing new platforms in 2025. This focus is critical, especially after reporting a 25% increase in mobile banking users during 2024. Plus, the authorization of GOU PAYMENTS S.A. EASPBV (a specialized electronic deposits and payments company) in 2025 shows a commitment to the low-value digital payments space. This is a race for the customer journey.

Here are the key metrics driving this digital shift:

• Total consolidated customer base: Over 15.2 million.
• 2024 Mobile Banking User Growth: 25% increase.
• Strategic Focus: Digital transformation is one of six corporate priorities for 2025.

Significant financial inclusion gap in rural and low-income areas requires tailored products.

The financial inclusion landscape in Colombia is a story of two economies, creating both a social obligation and a market opportunity for Grupo Aval. Access to basic deposit products is near-universal in urban areas, but drops sharply in rural regions to just 65.6% of adults [cite: 7 from previous search]. This exclusion is a major barrier to economic growth (productivity, growth, and well-being) for millions of Colombians.

To bridge this gap, the group relies heavily on its extensive physical network, which includes 120,085 Banking correspondents as of December 2024. These correspondents are crucial for providing basic services in remote areas. However, the real opportunity is in credit access: only 36.2% of adults in Colombia have access to any formal credit product [cite: 11 from previous search]. This low credit penetration demands tailored, micro-loan and simplified product offerings that manage the higher risk profile of the informal economy.

High unemployment rates, particularly youth unemployment, increase credit risk and non-performing loans.

Macroeconomic employment trends directly impact the stability of the loan portfolio, especially in the consumer segment. While the overall unemployment rate in Colombia improved to 8.2% in September 2025 [cite: 2, 3, 8 from previous search], the youth unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 14.6% for the same period [cite: 2, 3, 8 from previous search]. This large cohort of underemployed or unemployed young people represents a significant credit risk pool.

This social factor translates directly into the group's asset quality metrics. While the consolidated 90-day Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio improved to 3.5% as of June 2025 [cite: 9, 12 from previous search] (down from 4.2% a year earlier), the cost of risk for consumer loans remains elevated at 4.2% for the second quarter of 2025. That's the quick math on social stress impacting the balance sheet.

The table below shows the clear link between the social environment and credit risk:

Metric	Value (as of 2025)	Risk/Opportunity
Colombia Unemployment Rate	8.2% (Sep 2025) [cite: 2, 3, 8 from previous search]	Macro-stress indicator, affecting loan repayment capacity.
Colombia Youth Unemployment Rate	14.6% (Sep 2025) [cite: 2, 3, 8 from previous search]	High-risk segment for new consumer credit products.
Grupo Aval 90-Day NPL Ratio	3.5% (June 2025) [cite: 9, 12 from previous search]	Improving asset quality, but still sensitive to employment volatility.
Grupo Aval Consumer Loan Cost of Risk	4.2% (2Q2025)	Highlights the higher loss provisioning required for the retail segment.

Growing public scrutiny on bank fees and service transparency drives a need for empathetic pricing.

Public sentiment in Colombia is increasingly focused on the fairness of financial services, particularly regarding fees and pricing transparency. This is not just consumer grumbling; it is a regulatory driver. The Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (SFC) is actively monitoring the impact of recent reforms on low-value payment systems and fees. This focus means banks must offer empathetic pricing (low- or no-fee products) to maintain public trust and avoid regulatory intervention.

For Grupo Aval, fee income is a substantial part of non-interest revenue, with the Fee income ratio reaching 20.5% for the second quarter of 2025. This revenue stream is directly exposed to public and regulatory pressure. The SFC's role in managing Petitions, Complaints, Claims, Suggestions, and Reports (PQRSD) makes customer dissatisfaction a defintely measurable operational risk. The group must balance its fee-based revenue with the social demand for accessible, low-cost banking. A single, poorly managed fee structure could invite a regulatory review and damage the brand.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Aggressive investment in digital platforms like Dale! to compete with FinTech.

Grupo Aval has adopted an aggressive digital-first strategy to compete with the rapid growth of non-traditional financial technology (FinTech) players like Nequi and Daviplata. The spearhead of this effort is Dale!, the group's own digital wallet and Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) platform. This is not a partnership with Nequi, but a direct competitive response to the neo-banking trend. Dale! has demonstrated significant traction, consolidating its position with more than 4 million users as of October 2025.

The platform's success was recently validated by a Platinum Prize in Digital Transformation at the Fintech Américas 2026 gala, which was announced in late 2025. This aggressive push is essential, as its main competitors, Nequi and Daviplata, already command a massive user base, with Nequi reporting approximately 13.5 million users. The strategic focus is on creating a comprehensive digital ecosystem that integrates services like bill payments, concert pre-sales via #ExperienciasAval, and remittances, making the platform sticky for retail clients. One clean one-liner: The fight for the digital wallet customer is fierce.

Here is a quick comparison of the competitive landscape based on available user data:

Digital Platform	Parent Company	User Base (Approximate)	Strategic Role
Dale!	Grupo Aval	4+ million (October 2025)	Direct FinTech competitor, BaaS provider, Digital Ecosystem Hub.
Nequi	Bancolombia	13.5 million (Early 2023 data, a key benchmark)	Market leader, primary competitor.
Daviplata	Davivienda	14.6 million (Early 2023 data, a key benchmark)	Market leader, primary competitor.

Escalating cybersecurity threats require continuous, high-cost upgrades to protect millions of customer accounts.

The rapid digital migration and the sheer scale of the customer base make cybersecurity a continuous, high-cost operational imperative. Grupo Aval serves a massive population, including approximately 15.8 million banking customers and 17.6 million members of its pension and severance funds manager, Porvenir. Protecting these millions of accounts from increasingly sophisticated threats, like those leveraging generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) for hyper-realistic phishing and adaptive malware, demands a substantial and non-negotiable budget.

While a specific 2025 budget for Grupo Aval is not disclosed, the global trend confirms the pressure: worldwide cybersecurity spending is projected to reach approximately $213 billion in 2025, a clear indicator of the escalating investment required just to maintain a baseline of digital defense. You defintely can't skimp on this. The cost of a major breach-in fines, reputation damage, and customer churn-far outweighs the cost of continuous, high-end security upgrades, including advanced threat detection and automated incident response tools.

Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for credit scoring and personalized customer service is a core focus.

Artificial Intelligence is no longer a future concept; it's a core operational tool at Grupo Aval, particularly for managing risk and enhancing customer interaction. In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), the company announced a strategic partnership with Microsoft specifically to boost the use of AI in everyday operations. This initiative is designed to achieve three key goals:

• Enhance customer experience.
• Improve operational efficiency.
• Strengthen data-driven decision-making.

Specifically in the lending business, AI is already integrated via advanced scoring models. For the mass-market consumer portfolio, these models leverage behavioral information, sociodemographic variables, and a customer's profile to assess credit risk. This allows for more precise and faster credit decisions, which is crucial for consumer loan growth, expected to be in the 8.5% area for 2025. The group is also exploring generative AI for customer self-service channels to increase the effectiveness of sales leads generated through their digital applications.

Legacy core banking systems pose a challenge to rapid product deployment and operational efficiency.

Despite the aggressive investment in customer-facing FinTech like Dale!, the underlying core banking systems (the foundational technology that processes transactions and maintains accounts) across Grupo Aval's multiple banks pose a structural challenge. The push toward Open Finance (OpenBanking) and NeoBanking models requires a fundamental 'Transformation of the Technological Architecture,' as noted by the group's digital lab, ADL Digital Lab. Here's the quick math: older, siloed systems slow down the speed at which new, competitive products can be launched.

The complexity of integrating four separate commercial banks (Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and Banco AV Villas) under a single, seamless digital experience is substantial. The need to transform the core architecture is a strategic priority to achieve the following:

• Enable rapid product deployment (time-to-market).
• Improve operational efficiency and reduce the cost-to-serve.
• Support the full vision of an Open Finance ecosystem.

This architectural evolution is a multi-year, multi-million-dollar capital expenditure (CapEx) project, still a major strategic hurdle that must be overcome to maintain long-term competitiveness against born-digital FinTech rivals.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Stricter Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) compliance mandates across all operating countries.

You are facing a significant ratcheting up of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements across your core markets, especially in Colombia and Central America. This isn't just a paperwork issue; it's a major technology and operational cost center. The Colombian National Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN) issued Resolution No. 000204 in April 2025, which mandates more granular reporting on foreign exchange (FX) transactions.

This new rule requires the reporting of specific data points like the name of the beneficiary or recipient, the sender, and the city and country of the receiving or sending bank account. This level of detail forces a substantial upgrade to your transaction monitoring and customer data systems to ensure compliance with the new reporting deadlines, such as the one for the 2025 quarters by January 2026. Here's the quick math: more data fields mean more false positives, requiring more human analysts.

The constant global push for transparency means your AML/KYC infrastructure needs to be defintely top-tier.

New data privacy and protection laws (similar to GDPR) increase compliance costs and data management complexity.

The global trend toward comprehensive data privacy legislation, similar to the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), is hitting your operating jurisdictions hard, increasing both compliance costs and the risk of significant fines. In Colombia, the maximum institutional fine for non-compliance with personal data legislation is substantial, reaching up to 2,000 monthly legal minimum Colombian wages, which translates to approximately USD 695,000 for 2025.

Plus, your US presence exposes you to a patchwork of new state laws, with eight new comprehensive privacy laws taking effect in 2025 in states like Delaware, Iowa, and New Jersey. These laws often have varying definitions of sensitive personal data and introduce new consumer rights, forcing a fragmented, costly compliance strategy. For the financial sector, non-compliance with regulations that contribute to a data breach incurs an average cost of almost $220,000 more than a compliant breach, according to industry reports.

Jurisdiction/Regulation	Key 2025 Compliance Impact	Financial Risk/Metric
Colombia (DIAN Res. 000204)	Mandatory detailed FX transaction reporting (sender/recipient name, city, country).	Max institutional fine for data non-compliance: ~USD 695,000.
US States (e.g., Delaware, New Jersey)	Eight new comprehensive privacy laws take effect in 2025.	Average breach cost increase for non-compliance: ~$220,000.
Global Standard (G20 Roadmap)	Pressure to reduce cross-border payment costs.	Target for retail cross-border payment cost: no more than 1% by 2027.

Regulatory pressure to reduce interchange fees and transaction costs for consumers and merchants.

Regulatory bodies are actively pushing to lower the cost of digital transactions, which directly pressures your revenue from card and payment processing fees. In Colombia, card fees currently average between 3.3%-3.5% plus a fixed fee for merchants, while the local electronic payment system, PSE (Pagos Seguros en Línea), is typically lower at 2.65% plus a small fixed fee. These figures represent the current high-margin environment that regulators and consumer groups are targeting.

The global G20 roadmap for improving cross-border payments, which is a major driver of regional policy, aims to reduce the global average retail cross-border payment cost to no more than 1% by 2027. This long-term goal signals an inevitable squeeze on the current fee structure, forcing you to find operational efficiencies to maintain profitability as interchange fees decline.

Cross-border legal complexity managing diverse banking regulations in six different jurisdictions.

Operating in six distinct jurisdictions-Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua-means you must navigate six different sets of banking, consumer protection, and labor laws, plus the US regulatory environment for your ADRs. This is a massive overhead. The complexity is compounded by the global adoption of new standards.

The sheer volume of new international regulations, like the EU's Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) effective January 17, 2025, for financial entities, sets a high bar for digital resilience and third-party oversight that often becomes a de facto global standard for large financial institutions. Also, the ongoing transition to the ISO 20022 messaging standard for cross-border payments is a significant, mandatory systems overhaul that requires simultaneous, coordinated implementation across all six countries to avoid operational delays.

• Manage six unique national banking superintendencies and central banks.
• Implement new FX reporting rules (DIAN 2025) across all relevant cross-border flows.
• Coordinate the transition to the new ISO 20022 global payment standard.
• Align data protection policies with both local laws and the US state-level privacy patchwork.

Finance: draft a 13-week cash view by Friday to model the impact of a 50-basis-point reduction in average interchange fees.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Mandatory Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting standards are increasing.

You are seeing a clear, non-negotiable shift from voluntary disclosure to mandatory, globally-aligned ESG reporting, and Grupo Aval is defintely responding. The pressure isn't just from Colombian regulators, but from US investors who demand transparency under SEC rules.

Grupo Aval is already reporting under multiple international frameworks, which is smart risk mitigation. They use the GRI Standards (Global Reporting Initiative) and the SASB framework (Sustainability Accounting Standards Board), specifically for the Commercial Banking industry, which represents about 79.8% of their consolidated assets.

Crucially, they align their climate risk management with the recommendations of the TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures), now being adopted and strengthened by the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation's (IFRS) IFRS S2 standard. This means their climate data is moving from a sustainability report footnote to a core financial disclosure. The Colombian Finance Superintendence's External Circulars 031/2021 and 012/2022 also mandate specific information elements.

Here's the quick math on their strategic alignment:

• Core Reporting: GRI Standards (Essential option) and SASB.
• Climate Risk Standard: TCFD/IFRS S2.
• 2025 Action: The exercise to update the double materiality analysis will be carried out in 2025, ensuring their priorities match stakeholder impact and financial risk.

Climate change risk exposure in loan portfolios, especially those tied to agriculture and infrastructure.

The transition risk from climate change is a direct credit risk for a bank of Grupo Aval's size. Their total gross loan portfolio was Ps 199,357.1 billion as of June 30, 2025, and a significant portion of that commercial book is tied to climate-vulnerable sectors.

The group's banks are implementing the Environmental and Social Risk Management System (ESRMS), with full implementation expected in 2024 across Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and Banco AV Villas. This is their primary tool to manage this exposure.

We see the risk already surfacing in key commercial segments. For example, the infrastructure sector drove a 38.5% quarterly decrease in the commercial loan book in 4Q2024, partly due to lower work progress in some concessions, which can be exacerbated by climate-related delays or regulatory shifts.

To give you a sense of the scale, Banco de Bogotá assessed $31 trillion pesos of its loan portfolio at the end of December 2023, categorizing 18.5% of that amount as high environmental and social risk. That's a substantial block of capital requiring heightened scrutiny.

Climate-Vulnerable Sector	Loan Portfolio Impact (2025)	Risk Management Action
Infrastructure & Energy	Lower contribution was a main driver of commercial loan decrease in 2Q2025.	Focus on financing sustainable projects and energy transition.
Agriculture (Traditional Sectors)	Included in the traditional sectors of the commercial loan portfolio.	ESRMS implementation to minimize environmental and social risks in lending.
High E&S Risk Loans	18.5% of the assessed portfolio (Ps 31 trillion) at Banco de Bogotá was classified as high risk (2023 data).	Full implementation of ESRMS across all Aval banks in 2024.

Growing shareholder and public pressure to finance green projects and issue sustainability-linked bonds.

Shareholders are demanding a clear path to a low-carbon economy, and Grupo Aval is actively channeling capital toward this transition. Their commitment is visible in their sustainable financing numbers, which exceeded $23 trillion Colombian pesos in 2024 for projects like renewable energy, sustainable mobility, and environmental conservation. That's real money making a real impact.

Issuing green and sustainable debt is a core strategy. Banco de Bogotá, a subsidiary, was a pioneer, issuing Colombia's first sustainable subordinated bond in the international market for USD$ 230 million. This not only raises capital but also signals a credible commitment to the market.

While green bonds remain strong globally in 2025, the market for sustainability-linked loans (SLLs)-where the interest rate is tied to the borrower's achievement of ESG targets-is experiencing relative weakness. This suggests that investors are becoming more discerning and demanding higher quality, verifiable metrics, so the bank must ensure its targets are robust.

Need to reduce the operational carbon footprint of their extensive branch network and data centers.

The operational footprint of a large financial conglomerate is significant, mostly driven by energy use in their extensive branch network and data centers. Grupo Aval has set an aggressive near-term target: achieving carbon neutrality in scopes 1 and 2 by 2025. This is a firm, actionable commitment.

Their longer-term goals are equally clear: a 51% reduction in emissions by 2030 and moving toward a Net Zero by 2050 target. They are not just talking; they are measuring and offsetting.

The holding company's total carbon footprint in 2024 was 599.2 t CO2 (tonnes of CO2 equivalent). To meet their 2025 neutrality goal, they offset their 2024 footprint (Scopes 1, 2, and partial 3) by purchasing 600 carbon credits. This is a necessary, albeit short-term, measure for neutrality.

Operational efficiency is improving, too. In 2024, the holding company reduced energy consumption by 3.9% and water consumption by 17.7%. Still, the energy used by the holding company in 2024 was 166.28 MWh, and 100% of it came from non-renewable sources, highlighting the next big hurdle in their transition plan. They need to start shifting that energy mix.