Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Etrobrás (EBR): Analyse du pilon [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique du secteur de l'énergie du Brésil, Centais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Etrobrás est un acteur pivot naviguant des terrains politiques, économiques et technologiques complexes. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les défis et les opportunités à multiples facettes auxquels l'entreprise est confrontée après sa privatisation révolutionnaire en 2022, offrant un aperçu éclairant sur la façon dont les facteurs externes façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de l'une des entreprises d'infrastructure énergétique les plus critiques du Brésil. Des investissements aux énergies renouvelables aux paysages réglementaires complexes, Eletrobrás incarne la danse complexe entre le développement national des infrastructures et les ambitions mondiales d'énergie durable.

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Propriété et contrôle du gouvernement

Depuis 2022 privatisation, le gouvernement brésilien conserve un 50,26% de participation à Eletrobrás, maintenir un contrôle significatif grâce aux droits de vote.

Catégorie de propriété	Pourcentage
Propriété du gouvernement	50.26%
Actionnaires privés	49.74%

Influence fédérale de la politique énergétique

La politique énergétique du gouvernement brésilien a un impact directement sur les décisions stratégiques d'Etrobrás par le biais de plusieurs mécanismes de réglementation.

• National Energy Plan 2050 oblige la production d'énergie renouvelable à 85% d'ici 2050
• Cadre réglementaire établi par le ministère des Mines et de l'Énergie
• Objectifs d'investissement alignés sur les objectifs nationaux de développement des infrastructures

Impact de la stabilité politique

L'environnement politique du Brésil influence considérablement les investissements dans les infrastructures dans le secteur de l'énergie.

Indicateur de stabilité politique	Valeur
Indice de stabilité politique de la Banque mondiale (2022)	-0.72
Investissement du secteur de l'énergie (2022)	32,4 milliards de R

Cibles d'énergie renouvelable

Les mandats du gouvernement façonnent directement les stratégies opérationnelles d'Etrobrás pour la production d'énergie durable.

• Brésil 2030 Coupe d'énergie renouvelable: 45% du mélange d'énergie totale
• Etrobrás s'est engagé à élargir la capacité de génération du vent et de l'énergie solaire
• Incitations gouvernementales pour le développement des infrastructures renouvelables

Métrique d'énergie renouvelable	Valeur 2022
Capacité d'énergie éolienne	21.4 GW
Capacité d'énergie solaire	14.3 GW

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

La reprise économique continue au Brésil affecte la demande d'électricité et les investissements d'infrastructure

Le taux de croissance du PIB du Brésil en 2023 était de 2,9%. L'investissement total des infrastructures d'Etrobrás a atteint 5,7 milliards de rands en 2023. La demande d'électricité a augmenté de 3,2% par rapport à l'année précédente.

Indicateur économique	Valeur 2023	Changement d'année
Taux de croissance du PIB	2.9%	+0.8%
Investissement en infrastructure	5,7 milliards de R	+6.3%
Demande d'électricité	Augmentation de 3,2%	+0.5%

FLUCUATIONS EN BRÉSILIAN CARRENCE réelle Impact International Financial Performance

En 2023, le réel brésilien (BRL) s'est déprécié de 6,2% contre l'USD. Les revenus internationaux d'Etrobrás étaient de 2,3 milliards de rands, avec des fluctuations de devises, ce qui a eu un impact sur les résultats financiers de 147 millions de dollars.

Métrique de la devise	Valeur 2023
Dépréciation du taux de change BRL / USD	6.2%
Revenus internationaux	2,3 milliards de R
Impact de la monnaie sur les finances	147 millions de dollars

Les réglementations sur les prix de l'énergie influencent les revenus et la durabilité financière de l'entreprise

Les changements réglementaires en 2023 ont abouti:

• Réglage des tarifs électriques de 4,7%
• Coût de production moyen de 156 Rwing par MWh
• Revenus de marché réglementés de 18,6 milliards de dollars

Focus continue sur l'optimisation des coûts et l'efficacité opérationnelle

Eletrobrás a réalisé une réduction des coûts opérationnels de 5,4% en 2023, les dépenses opérationnelles totales passant de 22,1 milliards de rands à 20,9 milliards de rands.

Métrique d'efficacité opérationnelle	Valeur 2022	Valeur 2023	Changement
Dépenses opérationnelles	22,1 milliards de R	20,9 milliards de R	-5.4%
Coût par MWH	R 165 $	R 156 $	-5.5%

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Demande publique croissante de solutions d'énergie durable et propre

La taille du marché des énergies renouvelables du Brésil a atteint 150,4 GW en 2023, avec une énergie hydroélectrique représentant 62,5% de la production totale d'électricité. Le soutien public aux énergies renouvelables est passé à 78,3% selon une enquête nationale en 2023.

Source d'énergie	Pourcentage de la génération totale	Pourcentage de soutien public
Hydro-électrique	62.5%	85.2%
Vent	11.3%	72.6%
Solaire	3.2%	68.9%

Augmentation des attentes sociales en matière de responsabilité sociale des entreprises

Eletrobrás a investi 487,6 millions de rands de R de projets sociaux et environnementaux en 2023. Les initiatives de responsabilité sociale des entreprises ont augmenté de 22,7% par rapport à l'année précédente.

Changements démographiques dans les modèles de consommation d'électricité urbaine et rurale

Région	Consommation d'électricité urbaine (MWH)	Consommation d'électricité rurale (MWH)
Au sud-est	89,456	12,345
Nord-est	56,789	18,765
Sud	45,678	9,876

Sensibilisation à l'impact environnemental dans la production d'énergie

La réduction des émissions de carbone par le biais des initiatives des énergies renouvelables d'Etrobrás a atteint 34,6 millions de tonnes métriques en 2023. La sensibilisation à l'environnement parmi la population brésilienne est passée à 82,5% selon le National Environmental Survey.

• Réduction des émissions de carbone: 34,6 millions de tonnes métriques
• Conscience environnementale: 82,5%
• Investissement en énergies renouvelables: 2,3 milliards de rands en 2023

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements importants dans les technologies d'énergie renouvelable, en particulier l'éolien et l'énergie solaire

Eletrobrás a investi 2,3 milliards de RS dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable en 2023. Les investissements en technologie éolienne et solaire représentaient 65% de ce total.

Technologie des énergies renouvelables	Investissement (R $ milliards)	Pourcentage de l'investissement total
Énergie éolienne	1.2	38%
Énergie solaire	0.8	27%
Modernisation hydroélectrique	0.3	10%

Transformation numérique et développement des infrastructures de réseau intelligent

Eletrobrás a alloué 450 millions de R $ pour les mises à niveau des infrastructures numériques en 2023, en se concentrant sur les technologies intelligentes.

Composant d'infrastructure numérique	Investissement (R $ Millions)
Infrastructure de mesure avancée	180
Logiciel de gestion de la grille	120
Systèmes de cybersécurité	90
Intégration IoT	60

Mise en œuvre de systèmes de surveillance et de gestion avancés

Les principaux systèmes de surveillance technologique mis en œuvre en 2023:

• Système de surveillance des performances du réseau en temps réel
• Plate-forme d'interrogatoire de maintenance prédictive
• Technologie avancée de détection des pertes d'énergie

Système de surveillance	Amélioration des performances
Surveillance de la grille en temps réel	12,5% de réduction du temps de réponse
AI de maintenance prédictive	18% de diminution des taux de défaillance de l'équipement
Détection de perte d'énergie	Réduction de 7,3% des pertes de transmission

Innovation technologique pour améliorer l'efficacité de la transmission d'énergie

Eletrobrás a investi 320 millions de R $ dans les technologies d'efficacité de transmission en 2023.

Technologie d'efficacité de transmission	Investissement (R $ Millions)	Amélioration de l'efficacité
Lignes de courant direct à haute tension (HVDC)	150	Réduction de la perte de transmission de 15%
Technologie avancée du transformateur	90	10% d'efficacité de conversion d'énergie
Recherche de câble supraconductrice	80	Gain d'efficacité à long terme potentiel de 25%

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux cadres réglementaires du secteur de l'énergie brésilien

Conformité réglementaire Overview:

Corps réglementaire	Règlements clés	Statut de conformité
ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency)	Résolution 67/2021	Compliance complète
Ministère des mines et de l'énergie	Loi 14.182 / 2021	Mis en œuvre
Cadre de réglementation de l'électricité brésilienne	Loi 10 848/2004	Adhésion en cours

Adaptation continue aux nouvelles réglementations environnementales et opérationnelles

Métriques de la conformité réglementaire de l'environnement:

Réglementation environnementale	Investissement de conformité	Chronologie de la mise en œuvre
Politique nationale sur le changement climatique	1,2 milliard de R	2023-2025
Programme d'incitation aux énergies renouvelables	850 millions de R	2024 en cours
Plan de réduction des émissions de carbone	620 millions de R	2024-2026

Navigation d'exigences légales complexes pour les projets d'infrastructure

Projet d'infrastructure Répartition de la conformité juridique:

• Projets totaux d'infrastructure: 14
• Projets en cours d'examen juridique: 6
• Approbations de licence environnementale: 8
• Temps de traitement juridique moyen: 18 mois

Relever les défis juridiques potentiels dans la distribution d'énergie et la transmission

Statistiques de défi juridique:

Catégorie de défi juridique	Nombre de cas	Taux de résolution
Conflits d'utilisation des terres	37	68%
Litige environnemental	22	75%
Défis de conformité réglementaire	15	82%

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire les émissions de carbone et à promouvoir l'énergie durable

Eletrobrás vise à réduire les émissions de carbone de 40% d'ici 2030 par rapport aux niveaux de référence 2018. Les émissions totales de gaz à effet de serre de la société en 2022 étaient de 4,2 millions de tonnes métriques d'équivalent de CO2.

Métrique des émissions	Valeur 2022	Cible 2030
Émissions de carbone	4,2 millions de tonnes métriques CO2E	Réduction à 2,52 millions de tonnes métriques CO2E
Part d'énergie renouvelable	93.6%	98% d'ici 2030

Extension du portefeuille d'énergies renouvelables, en particulier de l'énergie hydroélectrique et éolienne

Eletrobrás exploite actuellement 21 centrales hydroélectriques avec une capacité totale installée de 44 298 MW. Le portefeuille d'énergie éolienne est passé à 1 237 MW en 2023.

Source d'énergie	Capacité installée (MW)	Pourcentage de la génération totale
Hydro-électrique	44,298	76.2%
Énergie éolienne	1,237	2.1%

Évaluations d'impact environnemental pour les nouveaux projets d'infrastructure

En 2022, Etrobrás a effectué 17 évaluations complètes d'impact environnemental pour de nouveaux projets d'infrastructures énergétiques. L'investissement dans les mesures d'atténuation environnementale a atteint 286 millions de rands.

Mise en œuvre de la technologie verte et des pratiques durables dans la production d'énergie

Eletrobrás a investi 412 millions de R $ dans la recherche et le développement de la technologie verte en 2023. La société a mis en œuvre des technologies de réseau intelligent dans 8 grands États brésiliens, réduisant les pertes de transmission d'énergie de 3,7%.

Investissement technologique vert	Montant (R $)	Impact
Investissement en R&D	412 millions de R	Solutions d'énergie durable avancées
Implémentation de la grille intelligente	8 États couverts	Réduction de la perte de transmission de 3,7%

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Post-privatization restructuring drove an 8% reduction in personnel, material, services, and others (PMSO) expenses in Q1 2025

The shift from a state-owned enterprise (SOE) to a private corporation model is defintely reshaping Eletrobras's cost structure, and you can see it right in the numbers. The company's restructuring initiatives, focused on staff adaptation and organizational adjustments, drove a significant drop in Personnel, Material, Services, and Others (PMSO) expenses in the first quarter of 2025.

PMSO expenses saw an 8% reduction compared to the same period in 2024. This cost discipline is a direct result of the post-privatization mandate to increase efficiency. However, this quarter still saw a reported loss of R$81 million, largely due to a R$952 million impact from a regulatory review by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) on the asset base of a key subsidiary, Companhia Hidro Elétrica do São Francisco (Chesf). This shows the cost savings are real, but external regulatory risks can still overshadow them.

Increased focus on social responsibility and governance, with the 2025 report showing a board composed of 70% independent members

The company is making a clear push to align its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profile with private market expectations, releasing its Annual Sustainability Report in April 2025. This transparency is crucial for institutional investors. The board composition is a key social and governance metric.

The Board of Directors has 10 members. While the federal government retains the right to nominate three of those members, a recent management proposal aimed to increase the minimum number of independent members to six to ensure a majority of independent directors and to staff key committees. This structure means that a minimum of 60% of the board is composed of independent members, which is a strong signal of commitment to corporate governance and stakeholder accountability.

Here's the quick math on the board structure:

• Total Board Members: 10
• Government-Appointed Members: 3
• Minimum Independent Members (Proposed/Goal): 6

Public demand for lower energy costs drives government intervention, creating regulatory uncertainty

The social pressure for lower electricity prices in Brazil is intense, and it translates directly into political risk for Eletrobras. With the October 2026 presidential elections approaching, the government is actively increasing pressure on market players to reduce energy prices. This political maneuvering creates regulatory uncertainty, which is a major concern for investors.

For example, proposed power sector reforms aim to lower rates by expanding subsidies for low-income consumers, but this may be offset by reducing benefits for renewable sources, which could paradoxically raise prices for those contracts and lead to legal disputes. Also, the budget for the national development account (CDE), a fund paid by consumers, is expected to be R$40.6 billion in 2025, a 9.2% increase from 2024, which will directly impact consumer bills. The government's desire to intervene, even without regaining control, keeps the regulatory environment volatile.

Labor relations are in transition as the company shifts from a state-owned enterprise (SOE) to a private corporation model

The transition from a state-owned enterprise (SOE) model fundamentally changes labor relations, moving from a culture of job stability and political influence to one focused on private sector efficiency and performance. The 8% PMSO reduction in Q1 2025 is the financial manifestation of this shift, reflecting staff adaptation initiatives. This is a necessary step, but it brings social risk in the form of potential labor disputes and workforce morale issues.

The company is simultaneously cleaning up legacy financial issues tied to its SOE past, which helps its long-term stability. The debt from compulsory loans, a liability originating from charges on consumer bills, has been significantly reduced. The total compulsory loan debt has fallen to R$13.1 billion in Q1 2025, down from R$26.1 billion in Q2 2022. This financial cleanup is a clear benefit of the privatization, but the workforce transition remains an ongoing social challenge.

Metric (Q1 2025)	Value (R$)	Social/Labor Impact
PMSO Expenses Reduction (YoY)	8%	Direct result of staff adaptation and restructuring.
Reported Net Loss	R$81 million	Highlights vulnerability to regulatory changes (Aneel review).
Aneel Regulatory Impact (Chesf)	R$952 million	Indicates high regulatory risk and potential for government-driven financial volatility.
Compulsory Loan Debt (Current)	R$13.1 billion	Reduction of a legacy SOE liability, improving long-term financial health.
CDE Budget (2025 Forecast)	R$40.6 billion	Increase in consumer-funded subsidy account, fueling public demand for lower rates.

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

The technological landscape for Eletrobrás in 2025 is defined by an aggressive push into Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the strategic integration of data and telecommunications infrastructure. You are seeing a clear pivot from a traditional utility model to a data-driven, resilient energy and fiber-optic provider.

This massive digitalization effort is directly tied to the company's projected capital expenditure (CAPEX), which is expected to be around R$12 billion annually in both 2025 and 2026, focused heavily on transmission network enhancements. Here's the quick math: that level of investment is designed to generate more than R$2 billion in additional annual permitted revenues (RAP) in the coming years, making technology a direct revenue driver, not just a cost center.

Major August 2025 partnership with C3 AI to deploy Grid Intelligence across all transmission assets

In August 2025, Eletrobrás formalized a critical partnership with C3 AI to scale the C3 AI Grid Intelligence platform across all its transmission assets under the Eletro.ia program. This is a game-changer for grid resilience.

The core benefit is real-time fault monitoring and resolution. The AI application processes data from thousands of sensors to detect, cluster, and provide decision-making intelligence for faults in less than 10 seconds. To be fair, this process previously took operators anywhere from several minutes to hours, so the time-to-resolution improvement is defintely a major operational advantage.

The deployment of this enterprise AI solution is specifically designed to address significant operational challenges in Brazil, such as wildfires near transmission lines and equipment failures, ensuring stability and availability across the largest power transmission network in Latin America.

Collaboration with Google Cloud (September 2025) to use AI for weather forecasting

Eletrobrás is also leveraging AI for predictive operations, announcing a project with Google Cloud in September 2025 to use AI models for advanced weather forecasting. This pioneering regional initiative uses Google DeepMind's WeatherNext AI model.

The goal is to move beyond traditional forecasting to optimize generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar and to proactively guide operational decisions for assets like transmission lines. The solution, which took nine months to develop and was completed in June 2025, replicates up to five layers of the atmosphere, integrating data from satellites and radars for advanced analysis.

This allows Eletrobrás to better anticipate and prepare for extreme weather events, which are increasingly common and pose monumental challenges to infrastructure integrity. You want to know when a storm is coming, not just after it hits.

Acquisition of a 51% stake in Eletronet (April 2025) to integrate fiber optic telecoms

The April 2025 completion of the acquisition of a 51% stake in Eletronet S.A. is a strategic move that merges the energy and data transport businesses. This consolidation gives Eletrobrás 100% control of Eletronet and its nationwide fiber optic network.

This network, which spans over 17,000 km, is directly integrated into the electricity transmission lines using Optical Ground Wire (OPGW) cables, providing high reliability. The real opportunity here is the cross-selling of data transport and IP transit services to high-growth sectors.

The primary commercial synergy is targeting data centers and internet providers, effectively turning Eletrobrás's transmission infrastructure into a dual-purpose asset: electricity and high-speed data. Eletronet's performance prior to the acquisition gives you a clear baseline:

Metric (Last 12 months to June 2024)	Amount
Eletronet Revenues	R$218 million
Eletronet EBITDA (approx.)	R$82 million
Fiber Optic Network Length	Over 17,000 km

This move is a direct response to the massive demand for data center infrastructure in Brazil, such as the Rio AI City project, where Eletrobrás is positioning itself to ensure network and electrical availability.

Digitalization of operations is a core strategy to drive efficiency

The overarching strategy is a comprehensive digitalization of all operations, which drives both operational efficiency and grid resilience. This isn't a vague initiative; it's a multi-pronged approach that includes:

• Deploying Smart Grids and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) to reduce grid losses and improve distribution efficiency.
• Using C3 Generative AI to streamline operational reporting, freeing up operators to focus on higher-impact tasks.
• Implementing predictive maintenance through data analytics to optimize asset management and reduce operational costs.
• Focusing on climate resilience, with the goal of being Net Zero by 2030, which relies heavily on technology for monitoring and optimizing low-carbon generation sources (hydro, wind, solar).

The goal is simple: a more automated, resilient, and profitable network. The technology investments are the engine for Eletrobrás's post-privatization efficiency gains.

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Settlement of the Privatization Legal Dispute (February 2025)

The biggest legal cloud over Eletrobrás was the challenge to its privatization structure, but that cleared with a settlement in the end of February 2025. This agreement with the Brazilian federal government is a defintely key de-risking event for the company's shares.

The core of the dispute-the government's voting power-was resolved by maintaining the original privatization rule: a 10% limit on voting power for any single shareholder, including the federal government, despite its ownership of approximately 46% of common shares.

In exchange for maintaining this stability, the government gained increased representation on the Board of Directors. It can now appoint three of the ten board members.

Legal Dispute Resolution Point	Outcome for Eletrobrás (EBR)	Specific Metric (2025)
Shareholder Voting Limit	Maintained regulatory stability and dispersed capital structure.	Maximum voting power capped at 10%.
Federal Government Board Seats	Increased government oversight, but not control.	Government appoints 3 out of 10 board members.
Risk Reduction	Eliminated major political and legal uncertainty.	Deemed a 'key de-risking event' by analysts.

Angra III Nuclear Plant Liability Removal

A critical component of the February 2025 legal agreement was the formal removal of Eletrobrás's obligation to fund the stalled Angra III nuclear power plant. This move sheds a significant, decades-old financial liability that had been a drag on the balance sheet. The company is now exempt from further capital contributions to its subsidiary Eletronuclear, which manages the project.

For context, the Angra III project is currently only about 65% complete and has an estimated total cost of $4 billion. The exemption allows Eletrobrás to focus its capital expenditure on core generation and transmission assets, rather than a high-risk, state-controlled venture. Eletrobrás is also in the process of selling its 35% stake in Eletronuclear to the state-owned ENBPar. That's a clean break from a major legacy headache.

Q1 2025 Regulatory Asset Review Impact

While the privatization settlement was a long-term positive, near-term legal and regulatory actions still hit the financials hard in the first quarter of 2025. Eletrobrás reported an adjusted net loss of R$81 million for Q1 2025.

Here's the quick math: the loss was primarily driven by a substantial R$952 million impact from a regulatory remeasurement. This charge stemmed from a regulatory asset review by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) related to the Chesf transmission tariff review process. This is a technical, non-cash adjustment, but it speaks to the ongoing regulatory risk in the Brazilian power sector.

The Aneel adjustment effectively corrected a mistake in the agency's application of a technical report submitted two years prior. The correction reduced Chesf's approved gross Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) by R$2.9 billion and the net RAB by roughly R$1 billion. That's a massive, one-time write-down.

New Power Sector Reform Proposals (Mid-2025)

The legal landscape is shifting again with the publication of Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,300/2025 on May 21, 2025, which proposes a broad 'Reform of the Power Sector.'

This reform, which must be approved by Congress, introduces legal and financial challenges, particularly for renewable energy contracts. The key change is the proposal to eliminate the 50% discount on the Distribution System Usage Rate (TUSD) for new contracts or renewals of solar and wind projects.

• Eliminate the 50% TUSD discount for new renewable contracts.
• Reduce the competitiveness of solar and wind against hydro and thermal power.
• Increase energy costs for free market consumers by up to 25% due to subsidy removal.
• Expand the free energy market to low-voltage consumers starting in August 2026 (commercial/industrial) and December 2027 (residential).

The removal of the TUSD subsidy, which has been crucial to the competitiveness of renewables, could negatively affect the earnings of generation companies in the near term, even if Eletrobrás's core hydro assets benefit relatively. The long-term goal is a more sustainable tariff structure, but the near-term legal wrangling over this new Provisional Measure will add uncertainty.

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (EBR) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

SBTi-approved (Science Based Targets Initiative) emissions reduction targets were secured in 2025, committing the company to a Net Zero goal by 2030.

You need to know exactly how Eletrobras is positioning itself for the carbon-constrained future, and the 2025 SBTi approval is the clearest signal. In 2025, the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) officially approved Eletrobras' short- and long-term emissions reduction targets, which is a big deal for a utility of this size. This move solidifies the company's commitment to achieving Net Zero by 2030. That's a very aggressive timeline, honestly.

The core of this commitment is a plan to reduce total emissions by at least 90% compared to the 2023 baseline, with a maximum of 10% of residual emissions being offset. To give you a sense of the scale, the company's total carbon emissions in 2024 were approximately 4,712,238,150 kg CO2e, down from 5,665,409,000 kg CO2e in 2023. The near-term targets are concrete:

• Reduce absolute Scope 1 emissions from generated electricity by 76% per MWh by 2029.
• Achieve a 50% reduction in all remaining absolute Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2029.
• Cut Scope 3 emissions from various activities by 40% by 2029.

That level of detail shows the plan is more than just a press release. It's a fundamental operational shift.

The generation portfolio is overwhelmingly clean, with 97% of energy coming from low-emission sources like hydro, wind, and solar.

What sets Eletrobras apart is that it's already a green major, not just aspiring to be one. Following strategic divestments in Q3 2025, including the sale of the Santa Cruz thermal power plant and its stake in Eletronuclear, the company completed its transition to a 100% renewable energy portfolio. The CEO confirmed in November 2025 that the company is '100% generating clean and renewable energy.'

Prior to reaching the 100% mark, the installed capacity was already around 97% from low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources. The portfolio is heavily weighted toward one source, which is both a strength and a risk, but the divestiture of thermal assets significantly de-risks the carbon transition. Here's the breakdown of the installed capacity mix from late 2023/early 2024, before the final thermal sales:

Energy Source	Percentage of Installed Capacity	Key Insight
Hydroelectric	~94.6%	The cornerstone of the portfolio, but exposed to drought risk.
Wind	~1.6%	Represents a growth area, with the 302 MW Coxilha Negra wind farm underway.
Solar	~0.002%	Minimal current share, indicating significant future expansion potential.
Thermal (Divested in 2025)	~3.7%	Eliminated from the portfolio in 2025, reaching the 100% clean goal.

Strategic Climate Adaptation Plans for high-priority hydroelectric assets are expected to be completed in 2025 to mitigate drought risks.

The biggest environmental risk for Eletrobras is not emissions, but water. Since over 90% of the portfolio is hydro-based, the volatility of rainfall and flow patterns (drought risk) is a critical operational issue. That's why the company is focused on climate resilience.

The preparation of Strategic Climate Adaptation Plans for high-priority hydroelectric assets, identified via a 2023 climate risk study, is expected to be completed in 2025. This is an essential step to manage and reduce mapped risks at key plants like Tucuruí and Sobradinho. The company is backing this up with capital expenditure (CapEx) for modernization.

Here's the quick math: the R$12 billion CapEx in 2025 shows a clear commitment to modernization. Still, the projected 5.0x-5.5x leverage peak is defintely something to watch, especially with high interest rates. The next step is for the Investment Committee to model the sensitivity of the R$5.5 billion-R$6.5 billion negative FOCF forecast to a 200 basis point change in the 2025 interest rate by next Tuesday.

The company utilizes an internal carbon price to assess the financial impact of potential future carbon emission taxes.

To build resilience against future regulatory risk, Eletrobras uses an internal carbon price. This is a smart financial tool, not just an environmental one. It allows the company to annually assess the financial impact of increased operating costs that would result from a potential future carbon emissions tax in Brazil.

This mechanism helps direct capital allocation, favoring projects with lower regulatory risk and contributing to the energy transition. Plus, the company is already monetizing its clean portfolio. In a July 2025 transaction, Eletrobras signed a carbon credit sales contract with Banco do Brasil, selling 992 tons of carbon credits generated by the Rio Teles Pires plant. This shows their internal clean energy advantage is already a revenue stream.