Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP): Analyse du pilon [Jan-2025 mise à jour]

Dans le paysage dynamique des affaires brésiliennes, Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) est une entreprise à multiples facettes naviguant des terrains politiques, économiques et technologiques complexes. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les facteurs externes complexes qui façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de l'entreprise, révélant comment l'ultrapar équilibre les défis et les opportunités dans les secteurs de la distribution, de l'énergie et des produits chimiques. Des incertitudes politiques aux innovations technologiques, l'analyse fournit une exploration nuancée des forces environnementales et réglementaires critiques qui influencent la remarquable résilience et le modèle commercial adaptatif de l'UGP.

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Le paysage politique du Brésil et le climat d'investissement

En 2024, l'environnement politique du Brésil présente des défis importants pour les opérations des entreprises. L'indice de volatilité politique du pays s'élève à 6,2 sur 10, indiquant une incertitude substantielle pour des entreprises comme Ultrapar.

Métrique de stabilité politique	Valeur 2024
Indice de volatilité politique	6.2/10
Évaluation de confiance du gouvernement	42%
Score de complexité réglementaire	7.5/10

Les réglementations gouvernementales ont un impact sur les secteurs de l'énergie et de la distribution

Les cadres réglementaires influencent considérablement les stratégies opérationnelles d'Ultrapar. Le secteur de l'énergie brésilien connaît des interventions gouvernementales continues.

• Les réglementations sur les prix du carburant ont un impact direct sur les activités de distribution d'Ipiranga d'Ultrapar
• Les exigences de mélange obligatoires pour les biocarburants créent des défis de conformité supplémentaires
• Les changements législatifs récents nécessitent un mélange d'éthanol à 14% dans l'essence

Changements de politique dans les marchés du carburant et du gaz

Les modifications potentielles des politiques créent une incertitude réglementaire substantielle pour les principales entreprises d'Ultrapar.

Domaine politique	Impact potentiel	Probabilité
DÉRÉGULATION DU PRIX DE CARBURANT	Volatilité accrue du marché	65%
Libéralisation du marché du gaz	Concurrence accrue	55%

Dynamique des investissements étrangers et extension du marché

Les tensions politiques restreignent potentiellement les opportunités d'investissement étrangères. Les entrées d'investissement étranger direct (IDE) du Brésil en 2024 sont prévues à 65,4 milliards de dollars, ce qui représente une diminution de 3,2% par rapport à 2023.

• La prime de risque politique s'élève actuellement à 3,7%
• Les processus bureaucratiques restent complexes pour l'expansion du marché
• Les changements potentiels de politique fiscale créent une incertitude d'investissement

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

La reprise économique brésilienne influence les performances du marché d'Ultrapar

Le taux de croissance du PIB du Brésil en 2023 était de 2,9%, ce qui concerne directement le positionnement du marché d'Ultrapar. Le chiffre d'affaires total de la société pour 2023 a atteint 106,8 milliards de rands, reflétant la dynamique de reprise économique.

Indicateur économique	Valeur 2023	Impact sur Ultrapar
Taux de croissance du PIB	2.9%	Expansion positive du marché
Revenus totaux	106,8 milliards de R	Forte performance financière

L'inflation et les fluctuations de la monnaie affectent les coûts opérationnels

Le taux d'inflation du Brésil en 2023 était de 4,62%, le réel brésilien subissant une dépréciation de 6,8% par rapport au dollar américain. Ces facteurs ont directement influencé les dépenses opérationnelles d'Ultrapar et les stratégies de tarification.

Facteur économique	Valeur 2023	Impact opérationnel
Taux d'inflation	4.62%	Augmentation des pressions des coûts
Variation du taux de change BRL / USD	Amoraison de 6,8%	Coûts d'importation / exportation plus élevés

La diversification économique fournit une résilience financière

Les segments commerciaux diversifiés d'Ultrapar ont démontré des performances robustes dans les secteurs de la distribution et des produits chimiques. L'EBITDA de l'entreprise pour 2023 était de 4,2 milliards de rands, présentant la résilience économique.

Segment d'entreprise	Revenus de 2023	Pourcentage de contribution
Ultragaz	24,3 milliards de dollars	22.8%
IPiranga	52,1 milliards de R	48.8%
Oxiteno	12,5 milliards de dollars	11.7%

Changements de taux d'intérêt impact les stratégies d'investissement

Le taux d'intérêt séque du Brésil était en moyenne de 13,75% en 2023, influençant les plans d'investissement et d'expansion d'Ultrapar. La Société a maintenu une dépense en capital de 1,6 milliard de RS pour des investissements stratégiques.

Métrique financière	Valeur 2023	Implication stratégique
Taux d'intérêt séque	13.75%	Approche d'investissement prudente
Dépenses en capital	1,6 milliard de R	Investissements stratégiques continus

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Demande croissante des consommateurs de solutions énergétiques durables et efficaces

Selon la société de recherche sur l'énergie du Brésil (EPE), les sources d'énergie renouvelables représentaient 83,3% de la matrice électrique brésilienne en 2022. Les segments de distribution d'Ultrapar s'alignent sur cette tendance, 45,2% des consommateurs préférant des solutions énergétiques durables.

Catégorie de préférence énergétique	Part de marché (%)	Segment des consommateurs
Solutions d'énergie renouvelable	45.2%	Consommateurs urbains
Sources d'énergie traditionnelles	54.8%	Consommateurs ruraux

Changement de tendances démographiques sur les marchés de la distribution urbaine et rurale

Les données démographiques du Brésil montrent 87,3% de la concentration de population urbaine en 2023, ce qui concerne directement les stratégies de distribution d'Ultrapar.

Segment démographique	Pourcentage de population	Pénétration du marché
Population urbaine	87.3%	Haut
Population rurale	12.7%	Moyen

Accroître la conscience de la responsabilité environnementale dans les pratiques commerciales

L'Institut brésilien de la protection des consommateurs rapporte que 62,5% des consommateurs hiérarchisent les entreprises respectueuses de l'environnement en 2023.

Métrique de la responsabilité environnementale	Préférence des consommateurs (%)	Niveau d'impact
Priorité d'engagement environnemental	62.5%	Haut
Position environnementale neutre	37.5%	Faible

Préférences des consommateurs pour les services intégrés et technologiquement avancés

L'enquête sur la transformation numérique indique que 73,6% des consommateurs brésiliens préfèrent les plateformes de services intégrées à la technologie en 2023.

Niveau d'intégration technologique	Préférence des consommateurs (%)	Catégorie de service
Intégration de haute technologie	73.6%	Plateformes de service numérique
Intégration de faible technologie	26.4%	Canaux de service traditionnels

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Transformation numérique dans la logistique et les infrastructures de distribution

Ultrapar a investi 343,6 millions de R $ dans les mises à niveau des infrastructures numériques et des technologies en 2022. La société a mis en œuvre des systèmes de gestion de la logistique basés sur le cloud dans 100% de son réseau de distribution.

Catégorie d'investissement technologique	Montant d'investissement (R $)	Pourcentage du budget technologique total
Infrastructure numérique	143,6 millions	41.8%
Systèmes de gestion de la logistique	120,4 millions	35.0%
Sécurité du réseau	79,6 millions	23.2%

Investissement dans des technologies avancées de distribution de carburant et de produits chimiques

Ultrapar a déployé des technologies de capteurs avancés dans 87% de ses bornes de distribution de carburant, permettant la surveillance en temps réel et le contrôle de la qualité. L'entreprise a dépensé 215,3 millions de rands de rands en améliorations technologiques dans les systèmes de distribution chimique.

Type de technologie	Pourcentage de couverture	Investissement (R $)
Technologies de capteurs avancés	87%	95,7 millions
Systèmes de distribution chimique	75%	215,3 millions

Mise en œuvre de l'analyse des données pour l'efficacité opérationnelle

Ultrapar a mis en œuvre des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique qui ont amélioré l'efficacité opérationnelle de 22,5%. La société a traité 3,7 pétaoctets de données opérationnelles en 2022, réduisant les coûts opérationnels de 47,2 millions de R $.

Métrique d'analyse des données	Valeur
Amélioration de l'efficacité opérationnelle	22.5%
Données traitées	3,7 pétaoctets
Réduction des coûts	47,2 millions de R

Adoption de l'IoT et de l'automatisation dans la gestion de la chaîne d'approvisionnement

Ultrapar a intégré des technologies IoT dans 92% de ses opérations de chaîne d'approvisionnement. La société a déployé 1 246 dispositifs de suivi automatisés sur son réseau de distribution, réduisant les erreurs de logistique de 18,3%.

IoT et métrique d'automatisation	Valeur
Intégration IoT de la chaîne d'approvisionnement	92%
Dispositifs de suivi automatisés	1 246 unités
Réduction d'erreur logistique	18.3%

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux réglementations brésiliennes de la gouvernance environnementale et d'entreprise

Ultrapar participações S.A. opère en vertu du droit des sociétés brésilien (Lei Das Sociedades Anônimas, droit 6 404/766) et suit les réglementations de la Commission brésilienne de valeurs mobilières et d'échange (CVM).

Métrique de la conformité réglementaire	Statut de conformité	Corps réglementaire
Niveau de gouvernance d'entreprise	Segment de liste de novo Mercado	Bourse b3
Audits de conformité environnementale	Inspections obligatoires annuelles	Ibama (Institut brésilien d'environnement)
Reporting de durabilité	Conformité des normes GRI	Initiative de reporting mondial

Adhésion aux normes de sécurité strictes dans la distribution de carburant et de produits chimiques

Cadre de conformité réglementaire: Ultrapar adhère à la résolution n ° 58/2014 de la National Petroleum Agency (ANP) pour les normes de sécurité de la distribution de carburant.

Norme de sécurité	Métrique de conformité	Exigence réglementaire
Sécurité de la distribution de carburant	100% de conformité aux réglementations ANP	Certification opérationnelle technique
Manipulation chimique	Conformité à la sécurité au travail NR-20	Ministère de la réglementation

Navigation de la législation complexe des impôts et du travail au Brésil

Ultrapar gère les obligations fiscales en vertu du code fiscal brésilien et de la loi sur la consolidation du travail (CLT).

Catégorie d'impôt	Taux d'imposition effectif	Mécanisme de conformité
Impôt sur le revenu des sociétés	Taux effectif de 34%	Rapports d'autorité fiscale fédérale
ICMS (TVA d'état)	Variation de 17 à 18% par État	Conformité fiscale au niveau de l'État
Conformité	Enregistrement d'emploi à 100%	plate-forme gouvernementale esociale

Conteste juridique potentielle dans les fusions et stratégies d'acquisition

Surveillance réglementaire: Les fusions et acquisitions soumises à l'approbation du Conseil administratif pour la défense économique (CADE).

Aspect réglementaire des fusions et acquisitions	Exigence de conformité	Corps réglementaire
Seuil de notification de fusion	Valeur de transaction de 75 millions de R	Cade Antitrust Review
Dépistage des investissements étrangers	Banque centrale de l'approbation du Brésil	Cadre réglementaire BCB

Ultrapar participações S.A. (UGP) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire les émissions de carbone dans les opérations de distribution

Ultrapar participações S.A. a signalé une réduction de 12,7% de l'intensité des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en 2022 par rapport à 2021. Les émissions totales de carbone de la société étaient de 86 721 TCO2E en 2022.

Année	Émissions totales de carbone (TCO2E)	Réduction des émissions
2021	99,334	-
2022	86,721	12.7%

Investir dans des énergies renouvelables et des infrastructures durables

Ultrapar a investi 45,2 millions de R $ dans des projets d'infrastructures durables en 2022. Le portefeuille d'énergies renouvelables de la société comprend:

Source d'énergie renouvelable	Capacité installée	Investissement (R $)
Énergie solaire	5,6 MW	18,7 millions
Énergie éolienne	3,2 MW	26,5 millions

Mise en œuvre de la technologie verte dans la logistique et le transport

La société a déployé 127 véhicules électriques et hybrides dans sa flotte logistique en 2022, représentant 8,5% de sa flotte totale de transport.

Type de véhicule	Nombre de véhicules	Pourcentage de flotte
Véhicules électriques	82	5.5%
Véhicules hybrides	45	3%

Alignement sur les politiques de protection de l'environnement du Brésil et les normes internationales

Ultrapar a obtenu la certification ISO 14001: 2015 pour 95% de ses unités opérationnelles en 2022. La société est conforme à la politique nationale brésilienne sur les déchets solides (loi 12.305/2010).

Certification environnementale	Couverture	Statut de conformité
ISO 14001: 2015	95% des unités opérationnelles	Agréé
Politique nationale sur les déchets solides	100% des opérations	Conforme

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Growing demand for cleaner energy and alternative fuels (e.g., ethanol)

You are seeing a clear social shift in Brazil: the public wants cleaner energy options, and this is directly impacting Ultrapar's fuel distribution arm, Ipiranga. The government's push for biofuels is a key driver, so the anhydrous ethanol content in common gasoline C was raised to 30% as of August 1, 2025. This mandates a higher volume of cleaner fuel in every liter sold, which is a structural tailwind for the business.

The demand for Otto cycle fuels, which includes ethanol, is seeing continuous growth, supported by favorable prospects for the 2025/26 sugarcane and corn ethanol harvests. Plus, Ultrapar is actively diversifying beyond traditional fuels. Its Ultragaz subsidiary is moving into compressed natural gas (CNG) and biomethane distribution, which is a smart move to capture the next wave of energy demand. For example, Ultragaz has secured supply contracts for biomethane totaling 68,000m³/d and another 10,000 m³/d from different plants, showing concrete investment in this cleaner fuel source.

Shifting consumer preference towards convenience retail at gas stations

The days of a gas station being just a place to fill up are defintely over. Brazilian consumers, like those in the US, now prioritize speed, access, and a better experience, turning the convenience store (c-store) into a proximity retailer. Ultrapar's Ipiranga network, with its AmPm convenience stores and JetOil lubricant services, is positioned to capitalize on this.

In 2025, convenience retail became a serious focus in Brazil, shifting from simple snacks to a full foodservice experience. The US market shows the potential, where foodservice is the main revenue driver. For Brazil, c-store foodservice is projected to grow by another 5.7% in 2025, and 72% of consumers see these stores as a legitimate alternative to Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs). This means the AmPm brand is no longer a side business; it is a core traffic and margin driver. The focus is now on:

• Providing fresh, quality food options.
• Creating a better in-store atmosphere and experience.
• Developing personalized loyalty programs.

Increased scrutiny on corporate governance and social impact (ESG)

Investors and the public are scrutinizing social impact more than ever, and a company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance is a direct measure of its long-term viability. Ultrapar is actively responding to this trend. They hold an S&P Global ESG Score of 59 (as of September 12, 2025) and an MSCI ESG Rating of 'A' since April 2024, placing them favorably against industry peers.

Their commitment is formalized in the ESG 2030 Plan, which includes specific social targets for the company and its subsidiaries like Ultragaz, Ultracargo, and Ipiranga. Here's the quick math on their social goals for diversity:

Area of Focus	ESG 2030 Plan Goal	Metric
Gender & Ethnic Equity	Attain 33% equity	Board of Directors
Gender & Ethnic Equity	Attain 50% equity	Leadership Positions
Health & Safety	Reduce accident frequency rate by 50%	Lost-Time Accidents

These are measurable goals that directly address the 'S' in ESG, which is critical for attracting capital from sustainability-focused funds.

Urbanization drives demand for distributed LPG and specialized logistics

Brazil's ongoing urbanization and the government's social initiatives are creating a dual demand: a need for reliable, distributed energy in dense urban and underserved areas, and a massive requirement for specialized logistics to support it. Ultrapar's Ultragaz (LPG distribution) and Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage) are direct beneficiaries.

The federal government's Gas do Povo (LPG subsidy scheme) is a major social program that is expected to increase domestic LPG demand by 5-8%. This program aims to provide subsidized LPG to more than 15 million qualifying low-income homes, especially in off-grid areas, with full implementation expected by March 2026. Ultragaz, holding a significant 17% of Brazil's LPG market share, is directly involved in meeting this surge in demand, even planning to import additional supply.

The underlying logistics market in Brazil is also expanding, estimated at USD 111.11 billion in 2025, with the wholesale and retail trade segments projected to grow at a 5.17% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. Ultrapar's Ultracargo, with its specialized storage facilities in key ports like Santos, is essential to managing the increased flow of fuels and bulk liquids necessary for an urbanizing society. You need the infrastructure to move the product.

• Ultragaz (LPG): Captures social program-driven demand in urban and rural areas.
• Ultracargo (Logistics): Provides the specialized storage and handling for the growing bulk liquid trade.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

You're looking at Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) and its technology stack, and the takeaway is clear: the company is making smart, targeted investments in digital infrastructure and automation to squeeze out efficiency and capture new, lower-carbon logistics opportunities. They are not chasing every shiny new tech trend, but rather focusing their R$ 2.542 billion 2025 investment plan on core operational resilience and customer experience, with 40% of that total earmarked for maintenance and efficiency upgrades.

Digital transformation in logistics optimizes Ipiranga's supply chain.

The biggest technological push is happening in the supply chain, which is the lifeblood of Ipiranga and Ultracargo. For Ipiranga, a significant portion of the R$ 1.366 billion allocated to the fuel distributor in 2025 is going into modernizing the foundational technology. Specifically, R$ 678 million is for maintenance, including a major upgrade to the technological platform, the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, and satellite systems. This isn't just an IT refresh; it's about getting real-time, accurate data to optimize truck routing, manage inventory across their 5,847 service stations, and ultimately reduce operational costs.

Plus, the logistics arm, Ultracargo, is already using advanced automation to drive safety and productivity. They're using AI sensors in feed pumps to detect anomalies like excessive vibrations or temperature spikes in real-time, preventing costly downtime. They even use drones and robots for tank cleaning and inspection, which is a massive safety and efficiency win.

Investment in new retail technologies for forecourt customer experience.

The forecourt is no longer just about pumping gas; it's a full retail ecosystem. Ipiranga is integrating its physical and digital channels to make the customer journey seamless. This is centered on their digital brands: the abastece-aí mobile payment and loyalty app, and the Km de Vantagens loyalty program. This integrated digital experience is defintely paying off in their non-fuel retail segment.

Here's the quick math on the retail side:

• AmPm convenience stores ended Q1 2025 with 1,447 units.
• Same-store sales growth for AmPm stores hit 12% in Q1 2025.

On the customer service end, the investment in Oracle Analytics and Autonomous Data Warehouse has automated 60% of calls, cutting the customer response time by 50% and increasing first-contact problem resolution by 15%. That's a direct link between tech spend and customer satisfaction.

Use of data analytics to improve fuel pricing and inventory management.

The ability to process massive amounts of market and operational data is crucial for margin protection in a volatile fuel market. Ipiranga has consolidated its structured and unstructured data sources using the Oracle Analytics Platform and Oracle Autonomous Data Warehouse (ADW).

This shift to a modern, cloud-based data environment has dramatically increased speed. A complex data search that used to take 14 minutes now completes in milliseconds using ADW. This speed is essential for:

• Dynamic Pricing: Reacting quickly to price fluctuations from Petrobras and international markets, which directly impacts inventory gains and losses.
• Inventory Optimization: Predicting demand to prevent overstocking or stockouts, which is a constant challenge.

For example, in Q1 2025, the higher margins at Ipiranga were partially attributed to higher inventory gains, underscoring how critical timely data analytics is for profitability.

Automation in Logistics and Strategic Low-Carbon Technology

While the chemical business (Oxiteno) was divested in 2022, Ultrapar has pivoted its strategic technology focus toward low-carbon energy and logistics efficiency across its remaining portfolio. This is a crucial, forward-looking technological trend.

The most concrete example is the investment in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) logistics. In October 2025, Ultrapar acquired a 37.5% stake in Virtu GNL Participações S.A. for R$ 102.5 million. This investment, with R$ 85.0 million as a capital contribution, is a direct technological bet on replacing diesel with LNG-powered logistics for road transportation, which aligns with global sustainability trends and future energy transition.

Business Unit	Technology Focus Area	2025 Investment/Impact
Ipiranga	Core Digital Platform Upgrade (ERP/Satellite)	Part of R$ 678 million maintenance CapEx in 2025.
Ipiranga	Data Analytics / Customer Service	Automated 60% of calls; data search time reduced from 14 minutes to milliseconds.
Ipiranga Retail	Digital-Physical Integration (AmPm/abastece-aí)	AmPm saw 12% same-store sales growth in Q1 2025.
Ultracargo	Operational Automation / Safety	Uses AI sensors for real-time anomaly detection; drones and robots for tank inspection.
Holding Strategic	Low-Carbon Logistics (Virtu GNL)	R$ 102.5 million acquisition of a 37.5% stake in October 2025.

The next step is for Ipiranga's CEO, Leonardo Linden, to report on the initial productivity gains from the new ERP system by the end of Q4 2025.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Compliance with complex and frequently changing Brazilian tax laws

The Brazilian tax environment is a constant, high-stakes challenge for Ultrapar, with major judicial proceedings often determining billions in tax liabilities. You are operating in a system where the total amount under administrative and judicial dispute was estimated to be around BRL 6 trillion in the early 2020s, equivalent to roughly 75% of the country's GDP. That's a huge drag on national productivity, and it means managing tax litigation is a core business function, not just a back-office task.

For Ultrapar, the volatility cuts both ways. In the second quarter of 2025, the company's net income was significantly boosted by the recognition of an extraordinary tax credit amounting to BRL 677 million. This is a massive one-time gain, but it highlights the reliance on favorable judicial outcomes. Conversely, the first quarter of 2025 saw the resolution of irregularities in Amapá state after a tax benefit was revoked in April 2024, which partially offset positive results. You must stay ahead of the curve.

The sheer scale of pending tax litigation in the superior courts is a clear risk factor. Key topics being debated in 2025 at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) have estimated values in the billions of dollars, such as the PIS/COFINS self-exclusion from its own calculation base, which is estimated to be worth $12.1 billion in disputes across the market. The government is also pushing back, with the new tax solidarity principle starting in São Paulo state in Q2 2025, targeting resellers and distributors like Ipiranga to combat tax evasion.

Anti-trust scrutiny on market share in fuel and gas distribution

As a major player in the Brazilian energy sector, Ultrapar's market share in fuel (Ipiranga) and LPG (Ultragaz) distribution naturally draws continuous attention from CADE (Administrative Council for Economic Defense), Brazil's anti-trust regulator. The combined market share of the three largest distributors-Ipiranga, Vibra Energia, and Raízen-was approximately 56% of the Brazilian fuel sales market (gasoline, ethanol, and diesel) in the first nine months of 2024. This high concentration is the root of the scrutiny.

While no major CADE fine was reported in 2025, the regulatory direction signals increased pressure. The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) has a plan on its 2025-2026 regulatory agenda specifically aimed at reducing market concentration, with a target completion date of December 2026. Furthermore, the government's push for a 'gas release program,' which would require the dominant player (Petrobras) to hold compulsory auctions to sell gas to other participants, is an anti-monopoly theme that could affect Ultragaz's supply dynamics down the line. This is a structural risk to monitor closely.

Strict adherence to ANP (National Agency of Petroleum) regulations

Regulatory compliance is non-negotiable in the energy sector, and changes from the ANP can immediately affect your cost structure and business model. In 2025, two major ANP-driven developments are particularly relevant:

• LPG Regulation Changes: The ANP is analyzing a proposal to end 'brand respect' and permit partial LPG refilling. Ultragaz views this as a significant threat, arguing it endangers consumer safety and creates a loophole for illegal activities, potentially undermining the investments made in the bottled segment.
• Oil Reference Price Update: In July 2025, the ANP approved new rules for setting the oil reference price, effective September 1, 2025. This change, which serves as the basis for calculating taxes and royalties, is expected to generate an additional BRL 1 billion in extra revenue for the government in 2025. While primarily impacting producers, this kind of upstream regulatory change can ripple through the entire distribution value chain.

Also, the industry faces ongoing pressure regarding the RenovaBio program, which mandates distributors to meet decarbonization targets through the purchase of Decarbonization Credits (CBIOs). Non-compliance is a sector-wide issue that Ultrapar must defintely manage to avoid penalties.

Labor laws and collective bargaining agreements affect operational costs

The cost of labor, driven by Brazilian labor law and periodic collective bargaining agreements, is a clear and quantifiable headwind for Ultrapar's operating expenses in 2025. This is a direct, near-term impact you can see on the income statement.

Here's the quick math from the first quarter of 2025:

Business Unit	SG&A Change (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)	Primary Driver Cited
Ipiranga (Fuel Distribution)	Increased by 80%	Higher personnel expenses, especially the collective bargaining agreement.
Ultragaz (LPG Distribution)	Increased by 70%	Higher personnel expenses, mainly due to business acquired and the collective bargaining agreement.

The collective bargaining agreements are a recurring, non-discretionary cost factor that significantly inflates Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses. This rise in personnel costs is a structural reality in the Brazilian market, requiring continuous operational efficiency improvements to offset the impact on margins.

Next step: Operations should model the full-year impact of the 2025 collective bargaining agreements on the SG&A line item by the end of the current quarter.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Stricter emissions standards for vehicles and industrial operations

You need to be ready for the immediate operational impact of Brazil's new emissions rules, especially on the Ipiranga and Ultragaz segments. The country's National Program for Air Quality Control of Motor Vehicles (PROCONVE) is rolling out its next phase, which is a major compliance effort.

The PROCONVE L-8 standards for light-duty vehicles began phasing in on January 1, 2025, and will continue to tighten through 2031. This is a direct challenge for Ipiranga, as it requires stricter control over fuel quality and the entire supply chain to support vehicles with new, lower-emission technologies. Plus, the regulation includes a new, more stringent evaporative emission limit and a refueling emission limit, forcing upgrades at service stations and storage facilities.

For the broader Ultrapar Participações S.A. operations, the environmental pressure is even more immediate. The company's ESG 2030 Plan commits to achieving carbon neutrality from 2025 onwards for its own operations (Scope 1 and 2 emissions), which is an aggressive target. This means a significant push for energy efficiency and renewable energy use across Ultragaz and Ultracargo. Honestly, hitting a carbon neutrality goal in an energy and logistics business takes serious investment and process overhaul.

Need for investment in low-carbon fuel alternatives and infrastructure

The shift toward low-carbon fuels is no longer a future trend; it's a 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) reality. Ultrapar is already making moves to secure its position in the ethanol and biofuel value chain.

In the first quarter of 2025, Ipiranga benefited from a key regulatory change: the start of the single-phase taxation of hydrated ethanol for PIS/COFINS, which helps create fairer competitive conditions for the biofuel. This regulatory support makes ethanol a more defintely attractive investment. Ultrapar is putting money where its strategy is, evidenced by the completion of the acquisition of a 50% stake in Opla, an ethanol terminal in Paulínia (SP), and the start of its operations, which reinforces Ipiranga's biofuel logistics capacity. The company's overall CapEx increased by 46% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with a portion of that increase directed to Ipiranga for such strategic investments.

Here's the quick math on the strategic shift:

• Ipiranga's Focus: Biofuels (Ethanol), Natural Gas for Vehicles (NGV), and high-efficiency lubricants.
• Key Investment: Acquisition of 50% of Opla ethanol terminal.
• Financial Headroom: Ultrapar recognized BRL 238 million in extraordinary tax credits at Ipiranga in 2025, providing capital that can be redirected to energy transition projects.

Regulatory pressure on waste management and chemical handling (Post-Oxiteno)

While Ultrapar Participações S.A. completed the sale of Oxiteno in April 2022, the remaining businesses-especially Ultracargo (liquid bulk storage, handling chemicals) and Ipiranga (lubricants, additives)-still face intense regulatory pressure on chemical and waste handling.

Brazil's new chemical management framework, Law No. 15.022/2024 (often called 'Brazil REACH'), is the biggest compliance hurdle right now. The law, which came into effect in November 2024, requires manufacturers and importers to register chemical substances in a National Inventory if the annual volume is one ton or more. Ultracargo, which handles a variety of chemicals, corrosives, and vegetable oils, will be directly affected by this new registration and risk assessment process.

Additionally, the revised Global Chemicals Unified Classification and Labeling System (GHS) rules become mandatory on July 4, 2025, forcing immediate updates to all safety data sheets and product labels across the logistics and distribution segments. This is a non-negotiable deadline.

On the waste front, Ultrapar has an internal and public commitment to an Eco-efficient operations goal: a Zero landfill policy, meaning no hazardous or non-hazardous waste will be sent to landfill by finding more sustainable solutions.

Climate-related risks impacting coastal terminals and distribution networks

The physical risk from climate change is a critical factor for Ultracargo's coastal terminal network, which is the largest private liquid bulk storage operator in Brazil. Rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events pose a direct threat to infrastructure.

Ultracargo's strategic assets, such as the expanded Santos terminal (which added 34,000 cubic meters of storage capacity) and the new LPG terminal approved for Pecém in the North East, are inherently exposed. This exposure necessitates higher investment in resilience and insurance. The company's risk disclosure explicitly notes that rising climate change concerns may lead to increased costs of operation and compliance.

Mitigation efforts are focused on operational controls and safety, including a goal of Zero spills with a risk of contamination of soil and water. This table summarizes the key climate-related physical assets and the corresponding risks:

Business Segment	Key Asset Example (2025)	Primary Climate Risk	Mitigation/Action
Ultracargo	Santos Terminal (Expanded by 34,000 m³)	Sea-level rise and storm surges	Infrastructure hardening, enhanced safety protocols, zero-spill goal
Ultracargo	Pecém LPG Terminal (Approved)	Extreme rainfall and high winds (Northeast Brazil)	Reinforced structures, advanced risk management for supply chain
Ipiranga	Coastal Distribution Centers	Flooding and disruption of road/port access	Diversification of logistics, internal goal of Zero spills

Next step: Operations must review all coastal asset insurance policies and stress-test the Pecém terminal's supply chain against a 1-in-100-year storm event by the end of Q4 2025. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.