Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) right as it hits a major strategic crossroads, and frankly, the next 18 months will define its trajectory. We see a clear split: on one hand, the team is focused on maximizing current assets, like getting Chamonix's Q3 2025 EBITDA ramped up and maintaining that roughly $18.4 million annualized run-rate from mature properties. On the other, they are making massive capital and regulatory bets, from building the permanent $302 million American Place to exploring relocating the Rising Star license entirely. This Ansoff Matrix distills exactly where the company is choosing to invest its energy, balancing safe market penetration with high-potential product and market development moves. Let's break down the specific actions you need to track below.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Full House Resorts, Inc. can deepen its hold in existing markets, which is the essence of Market Penetration. This strategy focuses on getting more of the current pie, primarily by boosting marketing and operational efficiency at properties like Chamonix Casino Hotel and growing the customer base at American Place Casino.

For Chamonix in Colorado, the immediate goal is to fully realize the potential suggested by its recent performance. The property achieved an Adjusted Property EBITDA of $2.1 million in the third quarter of 2025, a significant jump from negative $0.7 million in the third quarter of 2024, representing a $2.8 million improvement year-over-year. Marketing efforts should definitely target the underpenetrated Colorado Springs market, where management estimates only between 12% and 15% of residents visited any Cripple Creek casino in the last year. Also, note that 30% of Chamonix's guests last year came from the Denver area, showing that southern Denver is already a fertile ground to expand within.

Driving specific revenue streams at Chamonix is key to hitting those higher EBITDA levels. You saw table games revenue was up 53% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. That growth is even more impressive when compared to the third quarter of 2023, showing a 296% increase in table game revenues over that longer period. On the group business front, things are starting to move; there is a verbal agreement for a group event in the state, signaling progress in filling the calendar beyond individual discovery.

Over at American Place in Illinois, the focus is on database expansion to support the temporary casino's continued ramp. The customer database surpassed 115,000 sign-ups in the third quarter of 2025. To keep that momentum, loyalty program incentives will help drive repeat visits, especially since the property is adding about 3,000 new customers into the database in a typical month.

For the mature properties, Silver Slipper and Rising Star, the market penetration effort shifts to cost discipline to protect existing profitability. On a combined basis in Q3 2025, these two properties were 'essentially flat'. The Midwest & South segment, which includes these two plus American Place, posted an Adjusted Segment EBITDA of $11.6 million in Q3 2025. Optimizing costs here helps maintain the overall financial base while newer properties like Chamonix ramp up.

Here's a quick look at the operational metrics driving these penetration efforts:

The penetration strategy relies on granular execution across the portfolio:

• Target Colorado Springs and southern Denver marketing to fully ramp Chamonix's $2.1 million Q3 2025 EBITDA.
• Increase the American Place customer database, which surpassed 115,000 sign-ups in Q3 2025, through loyalty program incentives.
• Optimize cost controls at Silver Slipper and Rising Star to maintain performance from those mature properties.
• Drive table games revenue at Chamonix, building on the 53% year-over-year Q3 2025 growth.
• Expand group business events at Chamonix, building on the current 'verbal agreement for a group in the state'.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) can take its existing operational expertise and apply it to new geographic territories. This is Market Development, and the numbers from the latest quarter give us a clear picture of the assets we have to deploy.

Relocate the Rising Star Casino License

The strategy here involves moving the license from Rising Sun, Indiana. Full House Resorts, Inc. notified local officials of preliminary plans to relocate the Rising Star Casino gaming license to the Fort Wayne area, specifically the City of New Haven. The proposed investment for this new resort casino was $500 million for the first phase. That initial phase was projected to include over 1,400 slot machines and 50 live dealer table games. Furthermore, Full House Resorts estimated this New Haven casino would generate more than $80 million annually in new state and local tax revenue. However, legislation, Senate Bill 293, which sought to permit this relocation, was pulled without a vote in January 2025 following opposition testimony before a committee.

Leverage American Place Success in New Illinois Markets

The temporary American Place in Waukegan, Illinois, is clearly a success story to build upon. In the third quarter of 2025, this property achieved a property revenue record of $32.0 million, which was a 14.0% increase year-over-year. The customer database for American Place also grew to more than 115,000 people as of Q3 2025. The projected long-term cash flow from the permanent American Place facility is eventually expected to be double that of the temporary casino. The construction budget for the permanent facility has been revised down to $302 million. This performance provides a strong template for securing a new temporary license in a different Illinois metro area, though specific revenue targets for a hypothetical second temporary site aren't public.

Enter New Regional Gaming Markets

The development model seen in Cripple Creek, Colorado (Chamonix Casino Hotel) and Waukegan, Illinois (American Place) serves as the blueprint for entering other regional markets. Chamonix, which adjoins the Bronco Billy's property, showed strong operational improvement in Q3 2025, with revenue up 7.3% and recording $2.1 million in quarterly EBITDA. The CEO expressed confidence that Chamonix will be profitable in 2026. The company is looking at untapped markets, with the CEO targeting Colorado Springs, noting Chamonix had achieved less than 15 percent penetration of that market.

Here's a quick look at the Q3 2025 segment performance that underpins the capital available for such expansion:

The West segment revenue decline to $18.0 million from $19.4 million in the prior-year period is partially attributed to renovation-related disruptions surrounding the Grand Lodge Casino.

Expand Grand Lodge Casino Presence

The Grand Lodge Casino, located within the Hyatt Regency Lake Tahoe Resort, Spa and Casino in Incline Village, Nevada, competes directly with casinos in South Lake Tahoe and Reno, plus numerous Native American casinos in California serving the Northern California market. The property includes approximately 20,990 square feet of leased space. To expand its reach to the broader Lake Tahoe/Reno tourist market, Full House Resorts, Inc. utilizes specialized marketing campaigns, such as its seasonal "Christmas Casino" event, which was also used at the Rising Star Casino Resort. The West segment, which includes Grand Lodge Casino, generated $18.0 million in revenue in Q3 2025.

The company ended Q3 2025 with $30.9 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand and $450 million in outstanding senior secured notes due 2028.

Finance: review the capital allocation plan for the permanent American Place project against the $30.9 million in Q3 2025 liquidity by Tuesday.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) is planning to evolve its current offerings to capture more revenue from its existing markets. This is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix, focusing on new products/services for current customers.

The most significant capital outlay is for the permanent American Place facility in Waukegan, Illinois. Construction is planned to begin, with the budget set at $302 million for the build itself, separate from the $50 million required for the additional gaming license, according to some estimates. The temporary facility has operational approval until August 2027, giving runway before the permanent resort is anticipated to open in late 2027. The final design includes a significant increase in gaming capacity over the temporary setup.

At the Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado, the focus is on layering in non-gaming amenities to broaden the appeal beyond core gaming patrons. The high-end steakhouse concept, 980 Prime, was launched in April 2024. Other amenities followed quickly; the rooftop pool and portions of the spa opened in May 2024, with the remainder of the spa and a jewelry store expected to open before the end of the third quarter of 2024. The segment including Chamonix/Bronco Billy's reported Adjusted Segment EBITDA of $2.1 million in the third quarter of 2025, showing improvement year-over-year by $2.8 million in Adjusted Property EBITDA. The segment revenue for Q3 2025 was part of the combined West segment, which reported revenue of $14.5 million in Q2 2025.

For the existing properties, the strategy involves porting successful concepts. The 980 Prime steakhouse, originating at Chamonix, is a key product to be integrated elsewhere. While specific integration timelines aren't public, the Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel recently had a large portion of its slot floor refreshed, which management believes will benefit financial results in the second half of the year. The Rising Star Casino Resort utilizes specialized marketing campaigns, such as its seasonal "Christmas Casino" event.

Regarding digital product development in existing licensed states, Full House Resorts, Inc. is navigating changes in its contracted sports wagering agreements. The operator in Colorado was set to cease operations in June 2025, and the Indiana operator was set for December 2025. However, the Indiana operator reversed its decision in July 2025 and fully prepaid its remaining term through December 2031 for a negotiated fee of $1.5 million. The Contracted Sports Wagering segment reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.6 million and Adjusted Segment EBITDA of $1.5 million. This compares to Q2 2025 revenue of $1.7 million and Adjusted Segment EBITDA of $1.6 million.

• The temporary American Place facility achieved a monthly gaming revenue record near $11 million in March 2025, nearly reaching $11 million.
• The March 2025 gaming revenue at American Place was $10.98 million, with a slight dip to $9.9 million in April 2025.
• The combined Midwest & South segment (including American Place) revenue was $57.8 million in Q3 2025, up 4.2% year-over-year.
• The Silver Slipper and Rising Star generated a combined property-level EBITDA of approximately $18.4 million annualized for the six months ending June 30, 2025 ($13.4 million and $5 million, respectively).

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) is looking at strategies that move beyond current market penetration, focusing on new offerings and markets to expand its financial base.

Acquire a non-gaming hospitality asset, like a boutique hotel chain, in a major US city to diversify revenue streams beyond the regional casino model.

Diversification into non-gaming hospitality would use the company's current financial capacity to secure non-cyclical revenue streams. As of September 30, 2025, Full House Resorts, Inc. held $30.9 million in cash and had $10.0 million available under its $40.0 million revolving credit facility. This liquidity could support initial due diligence or a minority investment in a non-gaming asset. The existing Contracted Sports Wagering segment, which generated $1.6 million in revenue and $1.5 million in Adjusted Segment EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025, shows a baseline for non-core revenue generation, though it is declining from prior periods.

Develop a standalone entertainment venue (e.g., concert hall, large convention center) adjacent to the permanent American Place to utilize the projected $100 million run-rate EBITDA for financing.

The development of a permanent American Place facility is central to future cash flow generation, which would then support adjacent projects. Management has a conviction that the permanent American Place facility will achieve a run-rate EBITDA of $100 million. The current budget for this permanent facility was reduced to $302 million, down from $325 million. This project is intended to be financed, in part, by the high-yield bond market, with a total debt load currently standing at $450.0 million in senior secured notes due 2028 as of September 30, 2025. The temporary American Place facility alone generated $32.0 million in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 14.0% year-over-year increase.

The potential combined EBITDA profile, including the projected $100 million from permanent American Place, could contribute significantly to a target of $200 million in total company EBITDA, which includes an estimated $50 million from other casinos and online gaming exposure. The standalone venue would be an incremental use of capital, leveraging that projected cash flow.

Invest in a minority stake in a national online gaming technology platform to gain exposure to the broader digital entertainment sector.

Full House Resorts, Inc. already has exposure to digital operations through its Contracted Sports Wagering segment. For the third quarter of 2025, this segment reported revenues of $1.6 million and Adjusted Segment EBITDA of $1.5 million. This existing, albeit shrinking, digital revenue base provides operational insight into the sector. A minority stake investment would be a direct diversification into the technology layer, rather than just the operator layer, which is a different risk profile.

• The existing Contracted Sports Wagering revenue for Q3 2025 was $1.6 million.
• The existing Contracted Sports Wagering Adjusted Segment EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $1.5 million.
• The company is facing the discontinuation of its operator in Colorado (effective June 2025) and Indiana (effective December 2025).

Pursue a new gaming license in a completely new, high-growth state market, like Texas or Georgia, if regulatory changes occur.

Entering a new, large, and currently restricted market like Texas or Georgia represents the most aggressive diversification strategy, requiring significant capital outlay for a license itself. One analyst estimate suggested that obtaining an additional gaming license could cost $50 million. This cost is in addition to the $302 million budget for the permanent American Place facility. The company's current Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $14.8 million.