Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking to size up Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) right now, and honestly, it's a fascinating spot to be in as they push past \$300 million in trailing twelve-month revenue while opening big-ticket projects like Chamonix. As someone who's spent two decades mapping out these regional plays, I can tell you the five forces paint a clear picture: the threat from rivals and substitutes is real, especially with big national players nearby, but the massive capital needed for new casinos-think about \$250 million for Chamonix-keeps the door mostly shut for newcomers. We need to dig into how their supplier leverage is high on equipment but low on basic supplies, and how customer power is kept in check by local demand for their new offerings. Dive into the breakdown below to see exactly where the pressure points are for Full House Resorts, Inc. right now.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

You're analyzing Full House Resorts, Inc.'s supplier landscape as of late 2025, and it's clear that power is unevenly distributed across different input categories. Some suppliers hold significant leverage due to market concentration or the specialized nature of their offerings, while others face minimal pushback from Full House Resorts, Inc.

Reliance on Capital-Intensive Construction Partners

The commitment to growth, particularly in Illinois, ties Full House Resorts, Inc. closely to its construction partners. The planned permanent American Place facility carries a substantial estimated construction cost of $302 million, on top of an additional $50 million required for the gaming license itself. With construction expected to start in late 2025 or early 2026, securing favorable, timely, and quality contracts for this scale of development increases the bargaining power of those specialized construction firms. As of September 30, 2025, the company held $30.9 million in cash, meaning this massive capital outlay necessitates careful financing and reliance on external capital providers, further amplifying the power of those who provide essential construction services and financing.

Leverage in Gaming Equipment Sourcing

The slot machine and related systems segment represents a classic case of supplier concentration translating to leverage. A substantial majority of slot machines sold in the U.S. come from just a few major manufacturers, and recent consolidation activity in the gaming equipment sector only reinforces this oligopoly. To remain competitive, Full House Resorts, Inc. must offer popular, up-to-date games, which often forces the company into participation lease arrangements rather than outright purchases. These leases, which involve paying a fixed daily rental or a percentage of coin-in or net win, are generally more expensive over the long term than buying the equipment outright, directly indicating the suppliers' ability to dictate unfavorable terms.

Specialized Labor Costs and Property Ramp-Up

For high-end properties like Chamonix Casino Hotel in Colorado, specialized labor commands a premium, directly impacting operating costs. The elevated costs at Chamonix were cited as a factor weighing on profitability, contributing to the Adjusted EBITDA falling to $11.1 million in Q2 2025 from $14.1 million in Q2 2024. The initial inefficiencies and high operating costs associated with the property's ramp-up phase were noted throughout early 2025. While new management at Chamonix identified more than $4 million in potential annualized expense reductions and already cut $1.2 million in costs compared to Q1 2025, the initial need for such drastic measures points to high initial labor and operational cost structures inherent in launching a new, high-service property.

Commoditized Supplies: Low Supplier Power

For day-to-day operational inputs, the bargaining power of suppliers is generally low because these items are largely commoditized. Full House Resorts, Inc. deals with numerous vendors for food, beverage, and general operating supplies. However, even here, the company is actively managing costs. For instance, in Q3 2025, the Food and Beverage revenue was $9,950 thousand, and the CEO specifically mentioned that the cost of goods sold in Colorado was 'inordinately high,' leading to implementing controls like securing expensive alcohol under lock and key. The fact that Food & Beverage revenue fell 7.9% to $9.6 million in Q2 2025 suggests that while the inputs themselves are commoditized, managing the usage and inventory of those supplies is a key focus area for cost control.

Partner Instability in Ancillary Services

Instability among key partners, particularly in the digital space, demonstrates a form of supplier/partner risk. Full House Resorts, Inc. received notice that its remaining contracted sports betting operator in Colorado and Indiana planned to exit those markets by the end of 2025. This created uncertainty, though the operator later reversed its decision for the Indiana skin, fully prepaying the remaining term through December 2031 for a reduced fee totaling $1.5 million. This situation highlights that even non-traditional 'suppliers' in the form of contracted partners can exert pressure through contract termination or renegotiation, forcing Full House Resorts, Inc. to accept less favorable terms or cash settlements to secure continuity.

• Permanent American Place construction cost: $302 million.
• Permanent American Place license cost: $50 million.
• Chamonix Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA impact: Higher costs contributed to a drop to $11.1 million.
• Chamonix annualized expense reduction identified: Over $4 million.
• Chamonix cost cuts vs. Q1 2025: $1.2 million.
• Q3 2025 Food and Beverage Revenue: $9,950 thousand.
• Sports wagering prepayment for Indiana skin: $1.5 million.

Finance: review Q4 2025 COGS variance against Q3 2025 for all F&B segments by end of month.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

You're analyzing Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) and looking at how much sway the typical customer has in dictating terms or choosing alternatives. Honestly, in the regional gaming space, customer power is a constant balancing act between local convenience and the allure of a superior product. For Full House Resorts, Inc., the power of the customer lands squarely in the moderate zone. This is because their primary patrons are local residents and drive-in tourists, a group that always has several regional casino choices within a reasonable travel radius.

The key differentiator for Full House Resorts, Inc. is its investment in higher-end properties, which directly impacts customer price sensitivity. The luxury Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado, for example, is designed to offer a differentiated product, blending European elegance with mountain charm and featuring 300 keys of luxury accommodation. This focus on high-end offerings, including spa services and fine dining, helps to lower the customer's sensitivity to minor price changes compared to a purely commodity gaming offering. We saw the operational success of this strategy in Q3 2025, where Chamonix's Adjusted Property EBITDA swung to $2.1 million from negative $0.7 million in the prior-year period. Still, the regional market is tough; analysts note that competition remains fierce in key areas, meaning FLL must continually reinvest to offset these headwinds.

The success of the new, convenient product in Illinois is also telling. The temporary American Place casino drove $32.0 million in revenue in Q3 2025, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, demonstrating strong local demand when a new, convenient, and relatively modern product is introduced to the market. This property's database has already grown to over 115,000 members, showing that capturing new customers is possible, but retaining them requires ongoing value.

Here's a quick look at the competitive dynamics influencing customer choice:

The structure of Full House Resorts, Inc.'s customer retention efforts also plays a role in this power dynamic. Unlike some larger rivals, the loyalty programs appear to be property-specific, which inherently limits the switching costs for a customer moving between FLL's own locations. For instance, the Chamonix property has a $29 per night Resort Fee starting in 2025, which is waived only for specific tiers of their 'Mile High Reward Members'. This suggests a lack of a unified, company-wide rewards currency that would lock a customer in across all FLL properties.

The ease of switching to major competitors is a significant pressure point. Customers can easily pivot to rivals like Bally's Corporation or Caesars Entertainment, who leverage extensive, cross-property loyalty networks. Caesars Entertainment, for example, has a well-established system designed to keep patrons 'inside the family circle' across its 52 properties. Bally's Corporation also maintains a broad footprint across digital and traditional gaming. This scale means that a customer who has built up points or status with a national player has a strong incentive to bypass a Full House Resorts, Inc. location, thereby increasing customer bargaining power against FLL.

To summarize the factors influencing customer power:

• Local and drive-in customers face fierce regional competition.
• Chamonix's luxury focus lowers price sensitivity for its segment.
• American Place's Q3 2025 revenue reached $32.0 million, showing demand for new product.
• FLL's loyalty structure appears property-specific, limiting internal switching costs.
• Competitors like Caesars have massive, integrated loyalty programs with 65 million members.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're analyzing Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) in late 2025, and the competitive rivalry force is definitely a major factor, especially given the company's regional focus against national giants. Honestly, competing in markets like Illinois, Colorado, and Mississippi means you're constantly looking over your shoulder at operators with much deeper pockets.

Full House Resorts, Inc. is navigating this by betting on quality over sheer size. The strategy centers on offering superior amenities where it operates. Take Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado; it's positioned as a luxury destination, featuring a 300-guestroom hotel, which is a clear differentiator in that local setting. This focus on a high-end experience is how Full House Resorts, Inc. aims to capture and hold market share rather than trying to match the scale of competitors like Caesars Entertainment across the board.

The Chicagoland area, where American Place Casino operates, shows the intensity of this rivalry. Full House Resorts, Inc.'s temporary facility there is still in its ramp-up phase, but it's showing strong traction. In the third quarter of 2025, American Place Casino posted revenues of $32 million, marking a 14% increase year-over-year. This growth suggests Full House Resorts, Inc. is successfully carving out new market share, but it also implies aggressive competition as they fight for every new guest, evidenced by their database exceeding 115,000 members. Still, the company secured unanimous city council approval for the permanent American Place facility, which should solidify its long-term competitive position there.

In Cripple Creek, management suggests the local rivalry is less zero-sum because the market is deemed 'undersaturated.' The numbers support some organic growth without immediately pressuring competitors. Chamonix Casino Hotel contributed $2.1 million in Adjusted Property EBITDA in Q3 2025, and its revenues grew 7.3% in that same quarter. Furthermore, Full House Resorts, Inc. management has pointed to untapped markets in areas like Colorado Springs and southern Denver, suggesting room for growth before the rivalry becomes purely a battle for existing patrons.

The underlying structure of the regional gaming industry heightens this rivalry. The industry carries high fixed costs-think about the capital expenditure for a new property like Chamonix, which has 300 rooms and significant build-out costs. These high fixed costs create a strong incentive to keep capacity full, which often translates into aggressive pricing, heavy promotional spending, and intense marketing efforts to drive volume, even if it means slightly lower margins in the short term.

Here's a quick look at the performance of the two key growth assets as of Q3 2025, which illustrates how Full House Resorts, Inc. is fighting the competitive landscape:

The operational focus required to manage these properties against rivals is clear, as seen in the efforts to control costs:

• American Place Casino achieved record profitability in Q3 2025.
• Chamonix management targeted cost reductions, lowering operating costs by $1.2 million between Q1 2025 and Q2 2025.
• The company's overall Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $14.8 million, a 26.1% increase.
• The West segment, which includes Chamonix, saw Q4 2024 revenues increase 161.1% year-over-year due to the phased opening.

If onboarding at a new property takes longer than expected, the pressure from rivals increases as the initial investment costs continue to accrue. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're analyzing the competitive forces facing Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL), and the threat of substitutes is definitely a major factor, especially as consumer entertainment dollars fragment. We need to look at what else customers can spend their discretionary income on instead of visiting an FLL property.

The threat from non-casino gaming alternatives is substantial. While direct, state-specific data on video poker in bars competing with FLL's specific properties isn't always public, we can see the scale of the slot machine market, which is a direct substitute for FLL's core offering. For instance, in Cripple Creek, Colorado-where Chamonix Casino Hotel operates-slot machines generated $\mathbf{\$17.1 million}$ in revenue in August 2025, compared to $\mathbf{\$1.2 million}$ from table games in the same month. This shows the sheer volume of play captured by the simpler, often more accessible slot format, which is akin to the draw of video poker or lotteries. Furthermore, state-sponsored lotteries represent a massive, low-friction alternative for wagering. For context in a regulated market, in Maryland's Fiscal Year 2025, Lottery profits totaled $\mathbf{\$667.2 million}$, demonstrating the significant pool of consumer funds directed away from destination resorts and toward state-run games.

Online gaming and sports betting present an evolving, high-velocity substitute. Even with Full House Resorts, Inc.'s contracted skins, the ability for customers to wager from home erodes the need to travel. For Q3 2025, the Contracted Sports Wagering segment for Full House Resorts, Inc. generated $\mathbf{\$1.6 million}$ in revenue, indicating that a portion of potential on-property wagering is already being captured digitally. This threat is immediate, as the company noted that its contracted sports betting operator in Indiana is discontinuing operations effective December 2025, and the Colorado operator ceased in June 2025, forcing Full House Resorts, Inc. to manage the transition of those digital customers.

Non-gaming leisure activities compete fiercely for the same discretionary consumer spending pool. When consumers choose a vacation to a major destination resort with extensive non-gaming entertainment or opt for local entertainment venues, that is money not spent at Full House Resorts, Inc.'s properties. The company's financial performance reflects this sensitivity; the Q3 2025 net loss of $\mathbf{(\$7.7) million}$ shows vulnerability to any shift in consumer preference toward these substitutes, as the company is not yet consistently profitable.

Full House Resorts, Inc. actively mitigates this threat by developing integrated resorts that offer compelling non-gaming amenities, aiming to capture a larger share of the consumer's wallet per visit. The Chamonix Casino Hotel, for example, is designed to be a destination in itself, featuring amenities like the high-end $\mathbf{980 Prime}$ restaurant and the opulent Chamonix Spa, which includes a rooftop pool and a full-service salon. This strategy aims to increase the stickiness of the customer visit beyond just the gaming floor.

Here's a quick look at the revenue scale of some of the segments and key competitive data points we have for late 2025:

To counter the pull of substitutes, Full House Resorts, Inc. focuses on building out these non-gaming anchors, which serve as differentiators against simpler, less experiential alternatives:

• Develop integrated resorts with non-gaming amenities.
• Feature high-end dining like $\mathbf{980 Prime}$.
• Offer full-service facilities such as the Chamonix Spa.
• Include dedicated meeting and event spaces.
• Manage the transition of contracted sports betting skins.

Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for Full House Resorts, Inc. is generally kept in check by significant structural barriers, though the potential for a well-capitalized, politically connected entrant in a high-growth market always exists. You can see the barriers are steep when you look at the scale of investment Full House Resorts has already committed.

The primary deterrent is the sheer scale of capital required to even get a seat at the table. Building a new, modern gaming facility demands hundreds of millions of dollars. For instance, Full House Resorts, Inc.'s luxury Chamonix Casino Hotel in Colorado carried a revised construction budget of approximately $250 million. This level of upfront capital expenditure immediately filters out smaller, unproven operators. Furthermore, the existing debt load of Full House Resorts, Inc. itself-which included $450.0 million in outstanding senior secured notes due 2028 as of June 30, 2025-demonstrates the massive financing required just to compete and expand in this industry.

Regulatory and licensing hurdles represent the second, perhaps even more formidable, barrier. Each state where Full House Resorts, Inc. operates-Illinois, Colorado, Indiana, Mississippi, and Nevada-imposes its own stringent, time-consuming, and expensive licensing regime. In Illinois, for example, the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) oversees all licensed casino gambling, and while there are a maximum of 16 permitted casino licenses, securing one is a multi-year endeavor requiring evidence of sufficient capital and financial health. In Indiana, the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) has the authority to require Level 1 licensure for substantial owners if it determines it is in the public interest. These processes are designed to vet integrity and financial stability, creating a moat around existing operators.

Full House Resorts, Inc.'s strategic focus confirms the value of securing existing, prime licenses. The company's pursuit of relocating its Indiana casino license from Rising Sun to the New Haven area underscores this. The proposed replacement project was a substantial $500 million casino and hotel complex, but this effort was halted when the Indiana Senate Public Policy Committee declined to advance the necessary legislation in January 2025. The fact that a move of this magnitude requires legislative approval, rather than just regulatory sign-off, highlights the political capital and established relationships necessary to even attempt market repositioning, let alone a greenfield entry.

A new entrant would not just face capital and regulatory hurdles; they would enter a market where Full House Resorts, Inc. already has a foothold. Full House Resorts, Inc. currently manages a diverse portfolio of seven properties across five states: Illinois, Colorado, Indiana, Mississippi, and Nevada. This established footprint means new competitors face existing regional operators who understand local market dynamics, labor pools, and regulatory nuances. The financial commitment required to challenge this established base is immense, as evidenced by the need for Full House Resorts, Inc. to manage significant debt obligations to fund its growth projects.

Securing the necessary financing is a major barrier for smaller or unproven operators. The ability of Full House Resorts, Inc. to issue $450.0 million in senior secured notes due 2028 demonstrates the scale of capital markets access required for major development or sustained operations. Smaller entities attempting to enter the market would likely face higher borrowing costs or be unable to secure the necessary debt, especially when competing against established players who have already demonstrated their ability to manage large-scale projects like the $250 million Chamonix development.

The barriers to entry can be summarized by the required scale:

The key challenges for any potential new entrant include:

• Demonstrating sufficient capital for multi-hundred-million-dollar projects.
• Navigating complex, state-specific legislative and regulatory approvals.
• Overcoming the established footprint of operators like Full House Resorts, Inc.
• Securing financing comparable to the $450.0 million debt levels of incumbents.