Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC): Business Model Canvas [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're trying to map out exactly how Warrior Met Coal is turning those massive underground assets into shareholder returns, especially with the Blue Creek ramp-up finally hitting stride. Honestly, the core engine is simple: leverage premium, low-cost metallurgical coal reserves to supply global steelmakers, primarily in Asia and Europe, locking in stability through contracts. We're talking about a structure targeting a cash cost of sales between $105-$110 per short ton for 2025, underpinning their value proposition as a low-cost producer, even as they manage significant capital deployment. If you want the precise breakdown of their key resources, customer mix (like the 52% sales to Asia), and revenue drivers-like that $328.6 million in Q3 2025 revenue-the full Business Model Canvas is laid out below for your review.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Key Partnerships

You're looking at the core relationships that keep Warrior Met Coal, Inc. moving that premium met coal from the deep underground in Alabama to the global steel mills. These aren't just vendors; these are essential links in a high-volume, high-cost chain. If one link breaks, the whole export model stumbles.

Rail and port operators for export logistics via the Port of Mobile.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. relies heavily on its established logistics chain to move its product, which is almost entirely exported. The key destination is the McDuffie Coal Terminal at the Port of Mobile in Alabama. To support the massive ramp-up from the Blue Creek mine, the company invested $154 million to build out new transportation infrastructure, specifically a rail loadout and an overland belt. The rail loadout was completed and started shipping coal to the port as early as April 2025. The overland conveyor belt, designed to further simplify loading to trains and barges, is scheduled to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The scale of this operation requires precise timing. Here's a look at the throughput metrics related to moving the coal once it's ready for export:

The Blue Creek project is set to increase Warrior Met Coal's nameplate capacity by 75%, moving from 8 million short tons to 14 million short tons annually, with the vast majority moving through Mobile.

Long-term contractual buyers for stable volume off-take.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is dedicated entirely to mining non-thermal metallurgical coal, which is sold to the global steel industry. The company's customer base is overwhelmingly international, which necessitates these strong logistics partners. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the geographic breakdown of their customer mix was quite specific:

• Asia: 43%
• Europe: 37%
• South America: 20%

The company reports exporting to 35 countries in total. While specific long-term contract volumes aren't public, the entire business model is built on serving these major international steel producers, who rely on the premium quality characteristics of Warrior Met Coal's product, such as High Coke Strength After Reaction (CSR).

Equipment and technology suppliers for longwall mining.

The operational backbone of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is its highly efficient longwall mining system across its three active mines, including the newly operational Blue Creek mine. The Blue Creek longwall operations officially commenced in October 2025, which was about eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. Full commissioning for this new longwall is expected in early 2026. The existing longwalls at Mine 7 (two) and Mine 4 (one) are already equipped with the latest shield technology for partial automation. To maintain this high-tech fleet, the company made significant capital investments; for example, in 2024, they spent approximately $95.2 million in sustaining capital for equipment upgrades. The Blue Creek project itself has an estimated total capital expenditure range of $995 million to $1.075 billion.

Federal and state agencies for mining permits and lease agreements.

Securing the necessary acreage and regulatory sign-off is a critical partnership, especially for expansion projects like Blue Creek. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. has been actively working with federal agencies, notably the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

Key regulatory milestones in 2025 include:

• The Department of the Interior added a Warrior Met Coal Mines project to the FAST-41 permitting program on April 22, 2025.
• The BLM announced the availability of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for the expansion applications on June 5, 2025.
• The public comment period for the DEIS closed on July 21, 2025.
• The BLM announced the availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) on September 12, 2025.

This regulatory work pertains to the expansion of Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek Mine No. 1, covering approximately 14,040 acres of split-estate lands. The applications seek leases for an estimated 57.5 million tons of recoverable public coal reserves. Furthermore, Warrior Met Coal successfully won a federal coal lease sale, acquiring an additional 58 million short tons of reserves for a cost of $46.8 million. On the state/local level, the company secured a $26.5 million tax abatement from the Tuscaloosa County Industrial Development Authority related to the Blue Creek project.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Key Activities

You're focused on the core engine of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)-the physical work that turns reserves into revenue. This is where the company executes its strategy, and the numbers from late 2025 show a significant shift driven by the Blue Creek asset.

Underground mining and processing of steelmaking coal.

The fundamental activity is extracting and preparing high-quality steelmaking coal from its Alabama reserves, primarily from Mine 4 and the newly active Blue Creek mine. The company is a dedicated U.S.-based producer and exporter, meaning processing is immediately followed by moving the product to global markets.

Operational output in the latter half of 2025 demonstrated volume growth, even as pricing remained a headwind. For instance, in the third quarter of 2025, Warrior Met Coal achieved a record quarterly sales volume of 2.4 million short tons of steelmaking coal. This volume was supported by a 17% increase in total coal production compared to the prior year's comparable quarter.

Here's a look at the recent production and sales execution:

The company's updated full-year 2025 guidance reflects confidence in its operational ramp-up, projecting total coal sales between 8.8-9.5 million short tons.

Blue Creek mine development and longwall ramp-up.

This is the primary growth activity, representing a transformational investment to add significant, high-quality capacity. The execution here has been notably ahead of schedule, a rare feat in large-scale mining projects.

The most critical milestone was the commencement of the highly anticipated longwall operations in October 2025, which was eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. Commissioning toward full production is expected to be completed in early 2026. This early start directly impacted 2025 guidance, leading to an increase in expected Blue Creek production to 1.8 million short tons of high-vol A steelmaking coal for the year, an 80% increase over the initial 2025 guidance.

The investment scale is substantial, with total project capital expenditures estimated to remain in the range of $995 million to $1.075 billion. As of the third quarter of 2025, Warrior Met Coal had spent approximately $887.7 million on the project. The Blue Creek underground operation is designed for a nameplate capacity of 6.0 million short tons per year, a 25% increase over the original plan.

Key development and resource-securing activities include:

• Securing 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves via a federal lease sale for $46.8 million.
• Investing $64.2 million in Blue Creek during the third quarter of 2025 alone.
• The preparation plant was projected to start in mid-2025.
• The project is designed to add an incremental annualized production of at least 4.8 million short tons after the longwall is fully ramped.

Global sales and export logistics management.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is an exporter, so managing the flow of coal from the mine mouth to international customers is a core activity. This involves managing contractual sales, navigating spot market opportunities, and ensuring efficient transport to port.

The company's sales geography shows an active management of global demand. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2024, 38% of sales were directed to Asia, up from 25% in the prior year period. The early sales from Blue Creek in 2025 helped meet high contractual demand.

Logistics infrastructure is actively managed to support this export focus. Warrior Met Coal proactively expanded the original Blue Creek project scope by $130 million in 2023 specifically to de-risk product delivery channels to the Port of Mobile.

Cost control and operational efficiency programs.

Given the volatile nature of steelmaking coal pricing, maintaining a low-cost position is a critical activity for preserving margins. The integration of Blue Creek is immediately showing results in this area.

The company has demonstrated significant sequential cost improvements through operational discipline and the lower-cost profile of the new mine. The cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton fell to $100.73 in the third quarter of 2025, an 18% reduction from the $123.45 per short ton reported in the second quarter of 2025. This compares to a cost of $123.78 per short ton in Q1 2025.

The focus on efficiency has led to a lowered full-year 2025 cost guidance:

The cash margin per ton was $29 in the second quarter of 2025, a sharp drop from $62 per ton in the second quarter of 2024, underscoring the importance of this cost control activity in mitigating lower selling prices.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Key Resources

You're looking at the core assets Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) relies on to operate and grow, focusing strictly on the hard numbers as of late 2025. These aren't just line items; they are the physical and financial foundations of the business.

High-quality metallurgical coal reserves in Alabama represent the primary physical resource. The existing operations, Mine 4 and Mine 7, based out of Brookwood, Alabama, hold estimated recoverable reserves of approximately 91.4 million metric tons, supporting a current mine plan life of about 40 years. Also critical is the Blue Creek development, which adds another 69.8 million short tons of recoverable reserves to the asset base.

The Blue Creek mine is definitely the premier, low-cost growth asset driving future value. The longwall operations there started in October 2025, a remarkable eight months ahead of schedule. This early start is already impacting costs; the cash cost of sales per short ton for the company dropped to $100.73 in Q3 2025. Based on conservative projections, once fully ramped to its revised nameplate capacity, Blue Creek is expected to generate approximately $735 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA annually, assuming a long-term benchmark price of $250 per metric ton.

Here is a quick look at the scale of the Blue Creek asset and its projected impact:

• Projected Incremental Annual Adjusted EBITDA: $735 million
• Projected Incremental Annual Revenue: $1.3 billion
• Total Project Capital Expenditures Range: $995 million to $1,075 million
• Projected Blue Creek Nameplate Capacity: 6.0 million short tons per year

Warrior Met Coal maintains access to the Port of Mobile for international shipments, specifically utilizing the McDuffie Terminal. This logistical advantage is key because it translates directly into lower transport costs compared to many other U.S. metallurgical coal producers, allowing them to reliably serve steel manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and South America.

A significant recent addition to the resource base is the acquisition of new reserves through a federal lease sale. Warrior Met Coal secured an estimated 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves contiguous to existing operations. The company made the first of five installments for these new federal coal leases, with that initial payment being $9.4 million.

The financial strength supporting these operations and developments is substantial. As of September 30, 2025, Warrior Met Coal reported total liquidity of $525.2 million. This liquidity position is composed of several components, as shown below:

The company's ability to fund the Blue Creek development internally, with approximately $887.7 million spent on the project to date, speaks to the strength of these underlying resources and the cash generated from operations, even with Q3 2025 free cash flow being negative at -$19.5 million due to ongoing capital investment.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core reasons why steelmakers choose Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) for their critical raw material needs as of late 2025. It's all about quality, cost, and guaranteed supply.

Premium low-vol and high-vol A steelmaking coal quality.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. provides premium quality metallurgical coal, also known as hard-coking coal (HCC), which is a critical component for global steel production. The product mix is shifting toward higher quality grades.

• Premium Low Volatility (PLV) coal increased to 43% of sales in Q3 2025, up from 30% in Q3 2024.
• The average gross selling price realization for Q3 2025 was approximately 83% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index price.
• For Q2 2025, the average gross selling price realization was approximately 80% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index price.
• Initial gross price realizations for the High-Vol A coal from the Blue Creek mine are expected to remain in the 85%-90% range.

Reliable, high-volume supply for global steel production.

The company is scaling up output, particularly with the integration of the Blue Creek mine, to ensure a dependable supply stream for its customers in Europe, South America, and Asia. The total capacity is significantly increasing.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s overall annual nameplate capacity is now 14.0 million short tons, which represents a 75% increase from the previous 8.0 million short tons per year, driven by Blue Creek. The company has updated its full-year 2025 guidance for coal sales to be between 9.2-9.6 million short tons. The sales volume hit a record of 2.4 million tons in Q3 2025.

Positioned at the low end of the seaborne coking coal cost curve.

Cost discipline remains a key differentiator, allowing Warrior Met Coal, Inc. to maintain a competitive position even when benchmark prices decline. The company's cash cost of sales per short ton has shown improvement through operational efficiencies and the ramp-up of lower-cost production.

Accelerated Blue Creek project delivery, ahead of schedule.

The Blue Creek project is a transformative investment that has been delivered ahead of the original timeline while remaining on budget. The preparation plant started in the middle of 2025. Longwall mining started in October 2025, which is 8 months ahead of schedule, accelerating the timeline from the original target of no later than 2Q26.

The project's economics at the revised nameplate capacity of 6.0 million sh.t/y project significant returns.

• Total expected project capital expenditures remain in the range of $995 million to $1.075 billion.
• $823.5 million had been spent on the project as of June 30, 2025.
• The project is expected to generate approximately $1.3 billion of incremental revenues annually at the revised nameplate capacity.
• Incremental adjusted EBITDA is projected at $735 million annually.
• Incremental free cash flows are estimated at $637 million annually.
• The Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately $5.4 billion with an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 35% and a payback period of 2.3 years.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. serves metal manufacturers across Europe, South America, and Asia, being a leading U.S.-based supplier of premium quality metallurgical coal. The company's commitment to its customer relationships is evident in the structure and duration of its sales agreements and its focus on product quality.

The nature of the sales agreements points toward a structured, recurring relationship model. Sales commitments in the steelmaking coal market are typically not long-term in nature, and Warrior Met Coal, Inc. generally sells its steelmaking coal under fixed supply contracts that have indexed pricing terms and volume terms spanning one to three years. This structure is the basis for managing customer relationships, focusing on these medium-term agreements.

The company's sales volume distribution for the first quarter of 2025 showed a clear geographical focus:

• Asia: 43% of sales volume.
• Europe: 37% of sales volume.
• South America: 20% of sales volume.

The company delivered record quarterly sales volume in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 2.4 million short tons (St). A portion of this volume came from the new Blue Creek operation, with 378 thousand St sold from that mine in Q3 2025.

For the full year 2025 guidance, the company expected to sell approximately two-thirds of the 1.8 million short tons of high-vol A steelmaking coal from the Blue Creek mine.

The focus on product quality directly supports customer relationships, as the coal's specific traits-high CSR values, high fluidity, low sulfur content, and a high drum index-make it highly valued for certain steelmaking processes. This quality allows for price realization relative to benchmarks; for instance, the average gross selling price realization in the second quarter of 2025 was approximately 80% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index price.

The operational integration with customers is supported by logistical advantages that benefit their inventory management. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. delivers to European and South American markets with exceptional speed, allowing customers to benefit from favorable inventory management and lower working capital.

The reliance on fixed supply contracts with defined terms suggests a formalized approach to relationship management, though specific details on dedicated sales or technical support teams are not publicly quantified in the available 2025 financial disclosures. The structure of these agreements, priced on various indices, means the relationship management focus is on navigating the market pricing fluctuations within the agreed-upon one to three year contract windows.

Here is a summary of key volume and pricing metrics from 2025 reports:

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) primarily serves its customer base through an export-focused channel strategy, with substantially all of its steelmaking coal sales directed to international customers.

The direct sales force engages with global steel manufacturers, managing relationships across diversified markets in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. For the full fiscal year 2025, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) has provided guidance for coal sales in the range of 9.2 to 9.6 million short tons.

Coal moves from the Alabama mine sites to the export terminal using a combination of transport methods. The primary land-based movement involves rail transport from the mines to the loading facility. To enhance this critical link, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) proactively expanded the original project scope by $130 million in 2023 specifically to improve transportation logistics and de-risk product delivery to the port.

The logistics chain culminates with shipments via the Port of Mobile, Alabama. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) manages complex outbound logistics through the McDuffie Terminal located in Mobile, Alabama. The company has also made significant progress on the barge loadout facility as part of the Blue Creek project ramp-up.

International shipping lines are used for the final delivery to end-markets, leveraging the Port of Mobile for ocean vessel shipments. The company delivers to European and South American markets with exceptional speed. The sales channel is designed to support the premium nature of the High Vol A steelmaking coal produced.

Here's a look at the operational output that flows through these channels for the third quarter of 2025:

The Blue Creek mine, which commenced longwall operations in October 2025, is expected to be transformational, potentially increasing coal sales by as much as 6-7 million tons from the 2024 level of 8 million tons.

You should track the Blue Creek ramp-up closely, as its lower inherent cost structure is expected to further improve the cash cost of sales per short ton moving forward. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. serves the global steel industry, focusing on supplying high-quality steelmaking coal, also known as hard-coking coal (HCC), which is a critical input for global integrated steel manufacturers that operate blast furnaces. This customer base is geographically diverse, reflecting the international nature of steel production.

The geographic distribution of sales volume for the second quarter of 2025 shows a heavy reliance on Asian markets, which accounted for 52% of the total sales volume for that period. The total steelmaking coal sales volume in Q2 2025 was 2.2 million short tons.

European steel producers represent the next largest segment, making up 37% of the Q2 2025 sales volume. The remaining portion of sales volume, approximately 11%, is distributed among other key markets, including South American metal manufacturers.

The Blue Creek mine development is directly tied to securing and fulfilling these customer commitments. Specifically, the first commercial sales of 239 thousand short tons of Blue Creek steelmaking coal in Q2 2025 were contractual volumes sold primarily into Asia.

Here's a look at the sales volume context for the first half of 2025:

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. typically exports nearly 100% of its production, benefiting from lower transport costs relative to some other U.S. producers due to proximity to the export terminal in Mobile, Alabama.

Key customer segment characteristics include:

• Targeting blast furnace operators globally.
• Increased sales activity noted in both Europe and Asia as of mid-2025.
• The company's full year 2025 sales guidance was updated to be between 8.8 to 9.5 million short tons.
• The Blue Creek mine, which commenced longwall operations in October 2025, is expected to significantly increase production capacity for these customers.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

You're looking at the cost side of Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s operations, which is heavily influenced by the capital intensity of deep underground mining and the ongoing, multi-year investment in the Blue Creek project. The structure here is a mix of costs you can't easily change in the short term and those that move with production volumes.

High fixed costs from underground mining infrastructure are a defining feature. Developing and maintaining the deep shafts, ventilation systems, and longwall moves in the Alabama operations requires substantial, ongoing investment that doesn't disappear even if production dips. This is the bedrock cost of keeping the mines operational and safe.

The cost structure also clearly shows significant variable costs for wages, transportation, and royalties. These costs flex with the amount of coal you move and sell. For instance, the cash cost of sales per short ton saw a notable reduction in recent quarters, which management attributed to lower variable costs linked to steelmaking coal prices, alongside disciplined spending. The Q3 2025 cash cost of sales (Free-On-Board Port) was reported at $100.73 per St. This contrasts with the $101.17 per short ton seen in Q2 2025 and approximately $112 per short ton in Q1 2025.

Here's a look at the key financial figures guiding the 2025 cost expectations and the massive capital outlay for growth:

The variable nature of certain costs is highlighted by the components that drive the cash cost of sales. You see this clearly when looking at what management points to as influencing these figures:

• Variable cost structure components include wages.
• Variable cost structure components include transportation costs.
• Variable cost structure components include royalties.
• Cost control and operational efficiency efforts.
• The inherently lower cost structure of the new Blue Creek coal.

The significant capital expenditures for Blue Creek are a major cost driver in the near term, even if the project is expected to lower the overall cost curve once fully operational. As of the third quarter of 2025, the company had invested $887.7 million into the project. The 2025 capital expenditure guidance allocated $225-$250 million specifically for the discretionary development of Blue Creek reserves. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the core engine of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC), and it's pretty straightforward: the money comes almost entirely from selling steelmaking coal. This is high-quality, premium low-vol material, which is key because it fetches a better price than thermal coal. Also, there's a smaller trickle of income from the sale of natural gas byproduct, but honestly, that's just noise compared to the main event.

For the third quarter of 2025, the top-line number was $\text{\$328.6 million}$ in total revenues. That figure reflects a dynamic where they pushed more product out the door, but the market price they got for it was softer than the year prior. The average net selling price for that steelmaking coal landed at $\text{\$135.87 per short ton}$ for the quarter.

Here's a quick look at how the revenue drivers stacked up in Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year. This table shows you the revenue impact of volume versus price changes.

The story in Q3 2025 was definitely about volume overcoming price pressure. The operational success at Blue Creek is clearly showing up in the sales figures, which is what you want to see when commodity prices are choppy. Here are the key volume and price dynamics that define that revenue:

• Total revenues of $\text{\$328.6 million}$ for the third quarter of 2025.
• Average net selling price was $\text{\$135.87 per short ton}$ in Q3 2025.
• Sales volumes jumped $\text{27%}$ year-over-year.
• The average index price for premium low-vol steelmaking coal was $\text{13%}$ lower than the prior year's comparable quarter.
• Record quarterly sales volume hit $\text{2.4 million short tons}$.

To be fair, the lower cash cost of sales per short ton, which dropped $\text{18%}$ to $\text{\$100.73}$, helps keep the margin respectable even with that lower selling price. That cost control is almost as important as the revenue number itself when you're analyzing profitability.