Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're trying to make sense of a SPAC that didn't just find a target, but completely changed its stripes, and now you need to know if the resulting entity, Namib Minerals, is built to last in the tough African mining sector. Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI, which initially raised about $340.9 million in its 2021 IPO, completed its merger in mid-2025 to become the largest African company to list via a SPAC, holding assets like the low-cost How Mine in Zimbabwe and exploration upside in the DRC. This dramatic shift from a shell company to a physical resource producer means the old rules don't apply; we defintely need a fresh look at the competitive reality. So, before you model its future cash flows, let's break down the raw, on-the-ground forces-from supplier power to substitution threats-that will truly dictate its success below.

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

Following the business combination with Namib Minerals in June 2025, the supplier power analysis for Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (now operating as the merged entity) shifts entirely to the dynamics of the gold mining sector, specifically within Southern Africa, given Namib Minerals' operations in Zimbabwe and exploration assets in the DRC. For a capital-intensive, resource-extraction business like this, supplier power is a critical determinant of operational cost structure and profitability.

The bargaining power of suppliers is generally considered moderate to high, driven by the specialized nature of inputs, regional infrastructure constraints, and the scarcity of high-value human capital. You must manage these relationships closely, as supplier cost increases directly impact the projected All-In-Sustaining Cost (AISC) for operations like the How Mine, which is currently undergoing expansion.

The key areas where suppliers exert pressure are:

• Specialized mining equipment suppliers have high leverage due to high switching costs.
• Skilled labor and engineering talent in Zimbabwe/DRC is a scarce, high-power resource.
• Power and logistics providers in the region can exert strong pricing pressure.
• Key chemical reagents for processing gold are global commodities with limited substitutes.

Let's break down the specific leverage points with the latest available figures for late 2025.

Specialized Equipment and Capital Goods

For a mining operation like Namib Minerals, which is planning a significant throughput expansion at How Mine-from 40,500 tonnes per month in 2024 to 55,000 tonnes per month-procurement of heavy machinery is essential. Switching costs are high; once you commit to a brand of haul truck or excavator, maintenance contracts, parts inventory, and operator training create significant inertia. While some used equipment prices are visible, such as a Komatsu PC400-7 listed at $75,000.00, new, specialized, large-scale equipment carries substantial capital expenditure, which is expected to exceed $600 million for the Zimbabwean mining sector in 2025. The Zimbabwe Mining Equipment Market itself is projected for a modest growth rate of 1.93% in 2025, suggesting supply may be tight for specialized imports.

Here is a snapshot of relevant market data:

Labor and Engineering Talent

The power of skilled labor suppliers is amplified by the need for specialized expertise in complex geological environments like the DRC and Zimbabwe. In the DRC, the government doubled the national minimum daily wage in early 2025 to 14,500 Congolese Francs, which equates to roughly $5 USD per day, but this remains far below a calculated living wage, indicating persistent labor tension and potential for organized supplier action. Furthermore, the push for value-chain sovereignty and domestic processing in the region requires highly skilled metallurgists and engineers, creating a bottleneck for expansion projects like the one planned at Bilboes, which will create specialized roles. If you're hiring before product-market fit, you're competing for talent in a tight regional market.

Power and Logistics Providers

This is arguably the highest-leverage supplier group due to infrastructure fragility. In Zimbabwe, the mining industry's energy needs are projected to surge to 800 megawatts per day in 2025, up from 600 megawatts in 2024. Power shortages are a major risk, costing the sector approximately $500 million in lost revenue in 2024 alone. The existing electricity tariff for mining was previously cited around USc12.21/KWh, with a subsequent increase to USc14.21/KWh causing significant concern among miners that it would raise production costs by 7% to 10%. The Chamber of Mines has described these tariffs as unsustainable, forcing miners to seek alternative power arrangements, which itself creates a secondary supplier market with its own pricing power.

Key Chemical Reagents

For gold processing via cyanidation, sodium cyanide is indispensable, with nearly 90% of mined gold globally relying on this method. This lack of substitutes gives the chemical producers significant leverage. Global prices for Q3 2025 show significant regional variation, with the USA price at USD 3140/MT and Australia at USD 2195/MT. The global market size for sodium cyanide is estimated at USD 2.92 Bn in 2025, underscoring its critical role. Any disruption in the supply of ammonia or natural gas, key feedstocks, immediately translates to higher landed costs for Namib Minerals.

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

You're analyzing Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI, which, following its business combination, now operates as Namib Minerals, a gold producer. When looking at the bargaining power of its customers, you must understand that you are dealing with a commodity play, not a specialized industrial tech firm anymore. This fundamentally shifts the dynamic.

Customers for gold, copper, and cobalt are global commodity markets, not individual buyers. This means the buyer pool is vast, but the product itself is fungible, which typically keeps buyer power high. For instance, the global refined cobalt surplus was forecast to be 28,000 mt in 2025, down from 53,000 mt in 2024, illustrating the scale of the global supply chain you are selling into.

Price is set externally by exchanges like the LBMA, giving Namib Minerals (the successor to HCVI) no pricing power. For gold, the LBMA benchmark is key; analysts in July 2025 upgraded the average forecast for the year to $3,324.40/oz, up from an earlier forecast of $2,735.33/oz. The market sets the price; you take it. That's the reality of commodity sales.

Large industrial buyers of copper/cobalt are sophisticated and can easily switch suppliers globally. Consider cobalt: battery manufacturers are actively looking at substitution options like Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries if prices surge too high. This threat of substitution acts as a powerful lever for buyers. For copper, major producers like Chile and Peru account for nearly 40% of global output, meaning buyers are dealing with massive, established supply chains where switching is a matter of logistics, not impossibility.

The company's output is a small fraction of the global market, minimizing its influence. While we don't have Namib Minerals' specific 2025 output, we can see the scale: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) supplies more than 60% of the world's cobalt. If you are a single gold producer, your output is a drop in the bucket compared to the total global supply, meaning your production decisions have negligible impact on the final price you receive.

Here's a quick look at the external pricing environment that dictates your customer leverage:

The bargaining power of customers is high because the product is standardized, and the price is dictated by global benchmarks. Your ability to negotiate anything beyond standard terms is minimal. You need to focus on operational efficiency to maintain margins when prices are set externally. For example, cobalt prices, despite volatility, were assessed in Q3 2025 between $33,300 and $37,000 per metric ton before a late October rally to $47,110. That volatility is driven by external forces, not your sales team.

The key takeaways regarding customer power are:

• Customers are global commodity exchanges, not direct industrial buyers.
• Pricing is non-negotiable; it's the prevailing market rate.
• Buyers have high switching power via substitution (e.g., cobalt).
• The company's production volume is too small to influence global prices.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're analyzing the competitive landscape for the business that emerged from the Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) SPAC transaction-now operating as Namib Minerals. The rivalry in the metals and mining sector is a constant pressure point, especially given the nature of the commodities involved.

Rivalry is intense due to the undifferentiated nature of the gold/copper/cobalt products. While gold saw a strong performance in 2024, with revenues increasing by 15% and EBITDA rising by 32% for gold-focused firms, the underlying commodities are largely interchangeable in the eyes of many industrial buyers. This forces competition onto cost and reliable supply. For context, the broader metals and mining segment saw revenues contract by about 6% to $3 trillion in 2024-2025, yet profitability remained robust at around $1.3 trillion across the materials sector, with metals and mining contributing roughly $700 billion. This suggests that while demand exists, margin pressure is real for non-outperformers.

Direct competition comes from global mining majors with significantly greater capital and scale. These established players can weather commodity price dips and invest heavily in technology-like the Industry 4.0 integration seen across the sector in 2025. For instance, in 2024, the top 40 global mining companies (excluding gold) saw revenues decline by 3% and EBITDA fall by 10%, indicating that smaller players without the scale of the majors faced tougher conditions.

Still, high exit barriers exist, given the massive sunk costs in mines and processing plants. Once you commit capital to developing an underground operation, that investment is largely fixed, meaning producers must compete fiercely on operating costs rather than easily exiting the market when prices soften. This dynamic keeps marginal producers in the fight.

Here's a quick look at the operational context for the asset that defines the core of the new entity:

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI's resulting asset, the How Mine, offers a distinct advantage here. Its historical performance shows it maintains one of the lowest production cost profiles among its peers. This cost leadership is critical when facing undifferentiated gold pricing. Furthermore, the exploration assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounts for 76% of global mined cobalt, provide exposure to green minerals, though these assets are early-stage, with only six initial drilling holes showing copper and cobalt potential across 13 permits.

The competitive pressures manifest in several ways for the newly public entity:

• Commodity pricing is set globally; the company is a price taker.
• Gold's strong 2024 performance (revenue up 15%) masks sector-wide margin compression.
• Competition is fierce for capital access against larger, diversified miners.
• DRC assets face geopolitical and regulatory risks inherent in that jurisdiction.

If onboarding the Mazowe Mine and Redwing Mine restarts takes longer than the projected timeline, operational cash flow will be delayed, increasing pressure from existing, lower-cost competitors like How Mine. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at the competitive landscape for the assets Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI is targeting or merging with, and the threat of substitutes is a major factor, especially when considering the broader materials sector. Let's break down the specific threats based on the materials involved in the green economy.

Gold as a store of value or jewelry has virtually no substitute, reducing this threat. For the assets Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI is merging with-specifically Greenstone Corporation, which is set to become Namib Minerals-the primary commodity is gold. This metal's entrenched role in finance and ornamentation means direct, scalable substitutes are scarce, which is a strong position to be in. The company's pro-forma enterprise value post-merger was cited around $609 million.

Copper, a key green mineral, faces substitution pressure from aluminum in electrical transmission. Aluminum's lower cost and weight make it an attractive alternative, though copper still dominates where conductivity is paramount. Here's a quick look at the 2025 market dynamics for these conductors:

The overall market for copper and aluminum finished products, which includes these conductors, is projected to hit $94.14 Billion in 2025. Still, copper's better performance keeps its position strong in critical infrastructure.

Cobalt, another mineral often associated with the green transition, is under high threat from alternative battery chemistries. The rise of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries is a direct substitute for cobalt-containing chemistries like NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt). This shift is driven by cost and safety; LFP batteries are entirely cobalt-free. If you're invested in cobalt, this is where you need to pay close attention.

The substitution threat in the battery space is significant, as LFP technology has gained substantial ground:

• LFP market share globally is estimated between 65-75% as of 2024-2025.
• LFP battery pack costs are estimated to be 20-30% lower per-kWh than NMC equivalents.
• LFP batteries offer a cycle life exceeding 3,000+ cycles, compared to 1,500-2,000 for comparable NMC systems.
• Cobalt-containing NMC batteries held around 50% of the EV battery market in 2023.
• Global cobalt demand is still forecast to rise by 4% in 2025, but LFP adoption accelerates substitution efforts.

The company's focus on green minerals, like copper and cobalt, ties its fate to battery technology shifts, even if Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI's immediate target is gold. The broader energy transition sector, where Namib Minerals will operate, is highly sensitive to these material substitutions. For example, cobalt demand growth is projected at a 7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) through the 2030s, but supply growth lags at 5% CAGR, which could force substitution faster if prices spike. The average price for refined cobalt reached over $44,000 per ton on October 17, 2025, following supply restrictions.

Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're looking at the barriers preventing a new Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) or a new mining venture from immediately competing with Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI)'s target. The threat here is decidedly low, grounded in massive upfront capital demands and multi-year development timelines.

The initial capital hurdle for a SPAC vehicle like Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) is substantial. Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) completed its initial public offering raising gross proceeds of $\mathbf{\$300}$ million, plus an additional $\mathbf{\$40.9}$ million from the underwriters' over-allotment option, totaling approximately $\mathbf{340.93}$ million. This immediately sets a high floor for any comparable new entrant. To put that in context for late 2025, the first quarter of 2025 saw 19 SPAC IPOs raise a total of $\mathbf{\$3.1}$ billion, with the year-to-date average IPO size as of November 24, 2025, sitting at $\mathbf{\$205.2}$ million.

For any new entrant aiming for the target sector-gold production in Zimbabwe and the mineral-rich DRC-the regulatory and political environment acts as a significant moat. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example, continues to refine its governance, making entry complex. You see this in the regulatory shifts impacting the sector.

Furthermore, the established players, including the entity Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI (HCVI) is merging with, control access to the most proven and accessible mineral reserves. New entrants face the challenge of securing permits in areas that are either already claimed or subject to intense governmental oversight, especially in regions like the DRC where over $\mathbf{80\%}$ of gold miners are artisanal and small-scale.

The operational timeline itself is a massive barrier to entry, effectively locking out short-term capital plays. Bringing a new exploration project to production is not a quick process; it requires years of sustained capital deployment before the first dollar of revenue is realized. This extended pre-revenue period deters many potential competitors.

Consider the time required to move from discovery to steady output:

• Average lead time for mines operational 1990-1999: $\mathbf{6}$ years.
• Average lead time for mines operational 2020-2024: $\mathbf{17.8}$ years.
• Recent discovery timelines extending to approximately $\mathbf{20}$ years in practice.
• The average time from discovery to production has increased by more than $\mathbf{40}$ per cent in the last 15 years.

This means a new entrant today is looking at a minimum of $\mathbf{17}$ years, likely closer to $\mathbf{20}$ years, before seeing meaningful production from a greenfield discovery, assuming they can even secure the necessary exploration rights in jurisdictions like the DRC or Zimbabwe.

The regulatory environment demands enhanced environmental compliance documentation for over $\mathbf{70\%}$ of mining deals in 2025. Also, community consent is now a regulatory cornerstone, adding layers of social diligence that extend project timelines further.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.