Hess Midstream LP (HESM): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Hess Midstream LP's growth map, trying to figure out if their strategy is just more of the same Bakken optimization or something genuinely new, especially now that they've set that revised 2025 capital plan around $270 million. Honestly, the Ansoff Matrix reveals a disciplined dual approach: they are aggressively penetrating their core market-aiming to exceed the 455-465 MMcf per day gas gathering guidance by capturing new production-while also prepping for bigger leaps, like targeting Permian acquisitions or developing new services such as carbon capture readiness at the Tioga Gas Plant. It's a smart, two-pronged attack balancing near-term volume capture with future optionality. Want to see exactly which moves are low-risk and which ones could really change the game for their revenue stability through 2027? Dive into the quadrant-by-quadrant analysis right here.

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Hess Midstream LP maximizes its current asset base and customer relationships, which is the core of market penetration. This isn't about new territory or new services; it's about getting more out of what you already own and operate in the Bakken and Three Forks Shale plays.

The immediate focus is on throughput volumes, specifically gas gathering. Hess Midstream LP is pushing to exceed its updated full-year 2025 guidance. The updated guidance for full-year gas gathering volumes in 2025 is set to average between 455 to 465 million cubic feet (?MMcf?) of natural gas per day. The operational goal here is to capture every available molecule, especially from third parties, to push past that upper bound.

To support this volume capture, capital is being deployed directly into connection points. You see this clearly in the capital allocation plan. For 2025, Hess Midstream LP allocated approximately $125 million of its total capital budget toward ongoing capital expenditures for gathering system well connects. This spend is designed to service both Hess and third-party customers, directly linking capital deployment to existing market share growth.

Optimization of existing infrastructure is also key. You have new compression capacity coming online to handle the increased gas flow. Hess Midstream LP completed construction of a new compressor station in the third quarter of 2025, which provides an initial installed capacity of approximately 35 MMcf/d, expandable by an additional 35 MMcf/d in the future. This contributes to the aggregate initial capacity of an additional 85 MMcf per day from two new compressor stations brought online in 2025, which are expandable up to 140 MMcf per day. The task is to ensure this new capacity is fully utilized to maximize gas capture and processing efficiency.

Revenue stability is locked in through long-term contracts, and the negotiation point is extending that security. Hess Midstream LP continues to target annual distribution per Class A share growth of at least 5% through 2027, a commitment that is explicitly supported by existing minimum volume commitments (MVCs). Furthermore, the company expects to issue updated operational and financial guidance, including 2028 minimum volume commitments, based on an updated development plan from Chevron following the 2026 budget approval in December.

For water handling, the push is to increase utilization above the baseline forecast. The 2025 guidance for water gathering volumes is set between 120 to 130 thousand barrels (MBbl) of water per day. To absorb volumes above this, Hess Midstream LP has an Operated Salt Water Disposal Capacity projected at 180 MBbl/d for 2025E. This difference between gathering guidance and disposal capacity represents the headroom for offering enhanced disposal services to drive utilization higher.

Here's a quick look at the key 2025 operational metrics tied to this market penetration strategy:

The commitment to growth through existing contracts is further supported by the expected performance of the core business. Hess Midstream LP anticipates long-term growth in gas throughput volumes through at least 2027 in the Bakken. This is contrasted with oil throughput volumes, which are now projected to plateau in 2026 due to lower planned rig activity from Chevron, which is reducing its rig count from four to three commencing in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The financial underpinning for this strategy includes maintaining strong operational leverage. Hess Midstream LP maintained a gross Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 80% in the third quarter of 2025, which is above the stated target of 75%. This high margin on existing assets is what helps fund the capital expenditures and supports the distribution growth.

You can see the focus on maximizing current assets through these operational targets:

• Capture third-party gas volumes above the 465 MMcf/d guidance level.
• Deploy the $125 million ongoing capital budget for immediate well connects.
• Ensure full utilization of the 85 MMcf/d initial compression capacity addition.
• Rely on existing MVCs to support at least 5% annual distribution growth through 2027.
• Drive water gathering utilization toward the 180 MBbl/d disposal capacity.

The company expects relatively flat Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 versus 2025, with growth anticipated in 2027, driven by continued gas throughput improvement and inflation escalation provisions under existing commercial agreements. This signals that the near-term success of market penetration is about volume stability and contractually-backed revenue escalation, rather than aggressive new project commissioning in the immediate term, given the suspension of early engineering activities on the Capa gas plant.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

Market Development for Hess Midstream LP centers on taking its existing service capabilities-gathering, processing, and terminaling-into new geographic areas or new customer segments outside its core Williston Basin footprint. This strategy relies on the company's established financial footing, targeting leverage below 3x Adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025.

Target new US shale basins like the Permian or Haynesville for crude oil and gas gathering system acquisitions.

While Hess Midstream LP's assets are primarily in the Williston Basin, this strategy implies inorganic growth through acquisition in other major US plays. The 2025 financial guidance projects Adjusted EBITDA between $\$$1,235 million and $\$$1,285 million, providing a financial foundation for large-scale, non-organic expansion capital deployment.

Pursue joint ventures with non-Bakken E&P operators to build new, smaller-scale gathering systems in adjacent Williston Basin areas.

This approach leverages existing regional expertise without the full risk of a major acquisition. The company's current third-party revenue in the third quarter of 2025 was $\$$14.0 million, showing an existing appetite for non-affiliate business, which could be scaled through JVs in adjacent areas.

Leverage the existing Tioga rail terminal and Mentor, MN storage assets to attract new export customers outside the Bakken.

The existing infrastructure capacity is key here. For 2025, full year crude oil terminaling throughput is guided between 130 to 140 MBbl of crude oil per day. Attracting new export customers would require demonstrating available capacity beyond the current nominations, especially considering planned maintenance at the Tioga Gas Plant impacting gas throughput by approximately 10 MMcf per day in future years.

Offer produced water services to new industrial or agricultural customers near the Bakken footprint, expanding the customer base.

Expanding the customer base for produced water services moves Hess Midstream LP into new end-markets near its current operations. Full year 2025 water gathering volume guidance is set at 120 to 130 MBbl of water per day. This existing water handling base provides the operational template for securing new, non-E&P related contracts.

Bid on midstream assets divested by smaller, financially stressed operators in the broader Rocky Mountain region.

The ability to execute on this depends on available capital flexibility. Hess Midstream LP is targeting financial flexibility of greater than $\$$1.25 billion through 2027 for incremental shareholder returns and growth opportunities. This capital position supports competitive bidding for distressed assets across the region.

The scale of current operations versus potential new market entry can be viewed against the 2025 guidance:

The company's commitment to at least 5% annual distribution per Class A share growth through 2027 suggests a preference for accretive, de-risked growth, which Market Development acquisitions must meet.

Potential Market Development Avenues:

• Target Permian gathering systems with fee-based contracts.
• Form JVs for gas processing in adjacent Montana plays.
• Secure third-party crude export contracts via Mentor, MN.
• Expand water disposal contracts to municipal users.
• Acquire stranded gathering assets in the DJ Basin.

The projected capital expenditures for 2025 were updated to approximately $\$$270 million, which must be balanced against the pursuit of external growth opportunities.

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Hess Midstream LP can grow by introducing new services to its existing Bakken and Three Forks customer base. This is about developing new offerings, not just selling more of the same.

The current operational scale provides a solid base for these developments. For the third quarter of 2025, Hess Midstream reported throughput volumes showing gas processing up 10%, oil terminaling up 7%, and water gathering up 7% compared to the prior-year quarter.

The financial health supports investment, with Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 at $320.7 million and Net Cash provided by operating activities at $258.9 million.

Invest in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) readiness at the Tioga Gas Plant to process captured CO2 from Bakken producers.

While specific CCS capital allocation isn't detailed, the existing infrastructure context is important. Hess Midstream LP is reducing its full year 2025 capital expenditure guidance to approximately $270 million after suspending the Capa gas plant project from the forward plan. The company expects its leverage to decrease to below its long-term target of 3x Adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025. The Tioga Gas Plant's Minimum Volume Commitments (MVCs) for 2027 include the impact of planned regulatory inspections and maintenance.

Develop a centralized crude oil quality blending service at the terminaling facilities for premium market access.

The terminaling segment is already moving significant volumes. Oil terminaling throughput volumes increased 7% year-over-year in Q3 2025. For the first quarter of 2025, crude oil terminaling volumes averaged 125,000 barrels of oil per day.

Introduce a high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) gas processing service for deeper, more complex Bakken wells.

Gas handling capacity is a focus area. Hess Midstream completed construction of a new compressor station in Q3 2025, providing approximately 35 MMcf/d of installed capacity, expandable to an additional 35 MMcf/d. The company expects gas throughput volumes to grow approximately 10% in 2026. The 2025 nomination for gas processing set at year-end 2022 was 429 MMcf of natural gas per day, resulting in a Minimum Volume Commitment (MVC) of 343 MMcf of natural gas per day at 80% of the nomination.

Pilot a produced water recycling and reuse service for E&P customers to reduce their operational costs and water disposal needs.

Water handling volumes show current activity levels. Water gathering throughput volumes increased 7% year-over-year in Q3 2025. The full year 2025 expectation for water gathering volumes is an average of 120 to 130 MBbl of water per day. Water services contracts were effective as of January 1, 2019, with a primary cost of service term of 14 years.

Integrate advanced sensor technology for real-time methane emissions monitoring as a premium, compliance-focused service.

The company is focused on financial discipline while growing. Full year 2025 guidance projects Adjusted EBITDA between $1,245 million and $1,255 million. The Gross Adjusted EBITDA Margin for Q3 2025 was maintained at approximately 80%, above the 75% target. Capital expenditures for Q3 2025 totaled $79.8 million.

The planned capital for 2026 and 2027 is between $250 million and $300 million each year, with ongoing capital expenditures of approximately $125 million annually.

The partnership completed accretive repurchases in Q3 2025 of Class A shares for $70.0 million and Class B units for $30.0 million.

The company has long term commercial contracts extending through 2033.

• Gas processing throughput volumes averaged 462 MMcf/d in Q3 2025.
• Crude terminaling throughput averaged 130,000 BPD in Q3 2025.
• Water gathering throughput averaged 137,000 BPD in Q3 2025.
• Project capital expenditures for 2026/2027 are estimated between $125 million to $175 million annually.
• A new gas processing plant expected online in 2027 will have capacity of approximately 125 MMcf per day.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how Hess Midstream LP can grow beyond its core Bakken footprint, which is a smart way to think about long-term resilience. Diversification here means moving into new markets or new product lines entirely, which typically carries higher risk but also higher potential reward compared to just selling more of what you already move.

Consider building out Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) processing facilities, connecting Bakken gas to that growing market. The resource potential for RNG across North America could exceed $\text{7.8}$ billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2050, showing the scale of the opportunity. For context, the state of North Dakota alone has the potential to produce $\text{42.7}$ tBtu of RNG per year by 2040. The North America RNG market capacity is projected to reach $\text{604}$ MMcfd in 2025. This move leverages existing gas handling expertise but targets a different end-market driven by decarbonization goals.

Another new business line could be investing in utility-scale battery storage or solar projects in North Dakota to stabilize the regional power grid. The existing power mix in North Dakota relies heavily on thermal sources; in 2024, coal-fired power plants provided $\text{54%}$ of the state's electricity generation, while wind energy accounted for $\text{35%}$. Adding storage directly addresses the intermittency of that $\text{35%}$ wind component, creating a new, non-hydrocarbon revenue stream tied to grid stability services.

Entering the petrochemical feedstock market by building a small-scale fractionation unit to produce higher-value NGL derivatives is a step up the value chain. Currently, Hess Midstream sends most of its NGLs down ONEOK's Elk Creek Pipeline, which is expanding its capacity to $\text{435}$ Mb/d. Building a unit to capture and process a portion of the NGLs before they enter that pipeline could capture margin currently left on the table. For perspective on current operations, Hess Midstream's 2025 guidance included gas gathering volumes averaging $\text{475}$ to $\text{485}$ MMcf/day and gas processing volumes of $\text{455}$ to $\text{465}$ MMcf/day.

To diversify geographic and commodity risk, Hess Midstream could look to purchase and operate crude oil storage terminals in a new region, like the Gulf Coast. This shifts focus from the Williston Basin to a major logistics hub. While current operations are concentrated, North Dakota ranked No. 2 in the nation for crude oil production in 2015. A Gulf Coast terminal would provide exposure to different market dynamics, potentially linking to export capacity rather than solely regional production. The company's 2025 guidance targeted crude oil terminaling volumes of $\text{130}$ to $\text{140}$ MBbl/day.

Finally, developing a logistics and transport business for non-hydrocarbon industrial products using existing rail and truck infrastructure represents a pure market development play on existing assets. This would utilize the company's established logistics expertise, which currently handles oil, gas, and produced water. For example, in Q3 2025, Hess Midstream reported $\text{405.6}$ million in affiliate services revenue and $\text{14.0}$ million in third-party services revenue. Shifting a portion of that logistics capability to non-energy industrial goods could stabilize revenue streams against hydrocarbon price cycles.

Here's a quick view of the current financial context that supports capital allocation for these moves:

The company completed a new compressor station in Q3 2025, adding $\text{35}$ MMcf/d of installed capacity, which can be expanded to an additional $\text{35}$ MMcf/d. The overall 2025 capital plan was focused on $\text{\$125}$ million for ongoing capital and $\text{\$175}$ million for project capital initially, though the Capa gas plant project was suspended.

The commitment to shareholder returns remains firm, with a target for annual distribution per Class A share growth of at least $\text{5%}$ through 2027.

• Gas Gathering Throughput (2025 Guidance): $\text{475}$ to $\text{485}$ MMcf/d.
• Water Gathering Volume (2025 Guidance): $\text{120}$ to $\text{130}$ MBbl/day.
• Targeted Gross Adjusted EBITDA Margin: $\text{75%}$ in 2025.
• Q3 2025 Net Income Attributable to HESM: $\text{\$97.7}$ million.
• New Compressor Capacity Added (Q3 2025): $\text{35}$ MMcf/d.