Hologic, Inc. (HOLX): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking for the straight talk on where Hologic, Inc. stands right now, late in 2025, so we've mapped their business units using the classic four-quadrant view. We see the GYN Surgical segment firing on all cylinders, driving growth with Q4 revenue up 10.2%, while the established Diagnostics and Breast Health units keep printing reliable cash flow. Honestly, the portfolio shows clear tension: are the rapidly shrinking COVID-19 revenues a Dog, or is the new Biotheranostics business a Question Mark ready to explode? Dive in below to see the quick math on which parts of Hologic, Inc. are funding the future and which ones need a serious strategy pivot.

Background of Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)

You're looking at Hologic, Inc. (HOLX), which is an innovative medical technology company. Honestly, its core mission centers on improving women's health and well-being through early detection and treatment methods. The company has its headquarters right in Marlborough, Massachusetts, and it serves a global customer base of surgeons, hospitals, clinical laboratories, and other healthcare providers.

Hologic structures its operations into four main reportable segments for performance review: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. As of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the Diagnostics division was the largest contributor, making up about 44% of total revenue. Following that, Breast and Skeletal Health combined accounted for roughly 40%, with the Surgical segment bringing in the remaining 16%.

Let's look at the very latest numbers we have, which come from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, ending September 27, 2025. For that quarter, Hologic reported total revenue of $1,049.5 million, which was a solid increase of 6.2% compared to the same period the year before. Profitability looked good too, with GAAP diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) landing at $0.83 and non-GAAP diluted EPS at $1.13.

Drilling down into those segments for Q4 2025, the Diagnostics revenue was $454.1 million, showing a 2.4% increase, though this was partially held back by lower sales of COVID-19 assays. Still, if you strip out the COVID-19 impact, organic diagnostics sales actually grew by 5.4%. The Breast Health segment posted revenues of $393.7 million, marking a 4.8% jump, helped by strong sales in interventional products.

The GYN Surgical segment saw significant momentum, with revenue hitting $172.5 million, which is a 10.2% growth rate, largely driven by sales of products like MyoSure and Fluent, plus the recent Gynesonics acquisition. Geographically, the U.S. market remains dominant, accounting for about 75% of the company's revenue, with international markets making up the other 25%.

Now, for the big news that definitely changes the near-term outlook: on October 21, 2025, Hologic announced a definitive agreement. Funds managed by Blackstone and TPG plan to acquire the company in a transaction valued at up to $79 per share. This move signals a major strategic shift for Hologic as it heads into the next phase of its life under private ownership.

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) - BCG Matrix: Stars

You're looking at the Stars quadrant for Hologic, Inc. (HOLX), and the GYN Surgical segment is definitely earning its spot here, showing strong growth in a market that's still expanding. This segment is a leader, but honestly, it requires significant investment to maintain that position and market share.

The latest figures from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 show this segment is firing on all cylinders. GYN Surgical posted revenues of $172.5 million for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 10.2%. When you look at the constant currency growth, it was 9.5% for the same period. This is the strongest growth Hologic, Inc. saw across its segments in fiscal 2025, which tells you where the momentum is right now.

The growth story here isn't just organic; it's also being fueled by strategic moves. The acquisition of Gynesonics, which brought in the Sonata system for treating uterine fibroids, closed in January 2025 for $350 million. For the full fiscal year 2025, the Gynesonics business contributed $22.4 million in revenue. Even when you strip out that acquisition, the organic surgical revenue for Q4 2025 was up 5.3% year-over-year, or 4.5% in constant currency, showing underlying strength in the core portfolio.

The international push is a key indicator of high market growth potential. For instance, looking back at the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the international surgical business specifically grew by 16.2%. Products like MyoSure and the Fluent systems are clearly helping to drive that global expansion. This segment is definitely consuming cash to fuel this growth, but if Hologic, Inc. keeps its market share, these investments should eventually transition this unit into a Cash Cow as the market matures.

Here's a quick look at the key financial data points for the GYN Surgical segment from the most recent reports:

The continued market development in minimally invasive GYN procedures suggests a long runway for this segment to sustain double-digit growth rates, which is exactly what you want to see in a Star. The drivers behind this performance include:

• Strong adoption of the MyoSure system.
• Continued traction from the Fluent Pro system launch.
• The addition of the Sonata system via acquisition.
• Significant international surgical growth rate of 16.2% in Q2 2025.

To be fair, the organic growth rate excluding the new acquisition was 5.3% in Q4 2025, so the acquired assets are definitely providing an uplift to the reported segment growth rate. Finance: draft a projection for GYN Surgical cash burn rate for the next two quarters by end of week.

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

Cash Cows for Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) are business units that command a high market share within mature, slower-growth markets, reliably generating more cash than they consume. These segments require minimal new investment to maintain their position, thus providing the necessary capital to fund the company's Stars and Question Marks.

Diagnostics (Core Molecular)

The Diagnostics segment, anchored by the Panther system, functions as a powerful Cash Cow. This platform generates stable, recurring revenue streams through high-volume assay sales. The installed base of these high-throughput systems creates a sticky ecosystem, ensuring consistent demand for consumables.

For the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, which ended September 27, 2025, the segment demonstrated this stability. Excluding COVID-19 and related revenue, organic Diagnostics sales grew by 5.4%. This growth, driven by core U.S. molecular diagnostics sales and assays like the BV CV/TV and Panther Fusion assays, shows the underlying strength of the mature molecular testing market for Hologic, Inc.

Breast Health

Breast Health is a classic Cash Cow, characterized by a dominant global market share in the mature, yet essential, field of 3D Mammography, or Digital Breast Tomosynthesis (DBT). Hologic, Inc. maintains a leadership position with its 3Dimensions Mammography System. While the overall mammography market is growing, the core capital equipment replacement cycle is mature, fitting the low-growth profile, but the installed base supports high-margin recurring revenue.

The segment's financial performance in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended December 28, 2024, highlights its cash-generating nature, even with capital equipment fluctuations. Breast Health revenue for Q1 2025 was $369.1 million. A significant portion of this revenue comes from service contracts supporting the installed base of imaging equipment, which is crucial for maintaining high margins and predictable cash flow. Service revenue accounted for over 45% of the segment's total revenue in Q1 2025, underscoring the passive cash collection from this mature asset base.

The segment's reliance on recurring revenue streams, such as service contracts, is what solidifies its Cash Cow status, providing the necessary capital to fund other areas of Hologic, Inc.'s portfolio. The market for DBT technology itself is strong, with breast tomosynthesis projected to capture 54.6% of the mammography market share by 2025.

Here is a summary of the key financial metrics supporting the Cash Cow classification for these segments as of the latest reported periods:

The strategy here is to invest just enough to maintain infrastructure-like supporting the Panther installed base or servicing existing 3D units-to maximize the net cash flow extracted. You want to keep the service contracts running smoothly; that's where the real money is made in a mature market.

• Diagnostics: Panther system drives stable, recurring assay revenue.
• Breast Health: Dominant global market share in 3D Mammography.
• Investments focus on efficiency improvements rather than aggressive market expansion.
• These units generate the cash required to service corporate debt and pay shareholder dividends.

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

The Skeletal Health segment represents a classic Dog position within the Hologic, Inc. portfolio, characterized by its minimal contribution to overall revenue and operation within a mature, slow-expanding market space. This unit posted a Q4 2025 revenue of only $29.2 million.

The overall bone densitometer market, where Hologic, Inc. holds its position, is classified as low-growth, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.1% through 2035. This low market expansion rate limits the potential for significant top-line acceleration from this business unit, regardless of market share.

Performance within Skeletal Health shows significant historical volatility, making consistent forecasting difficult. Here's a quick look at the recent quarterly figures:

Despite the substantial Q4 2025 recovery, which saw revenues surge 129.9% year over year, the segment remains a minor contributor to Hologic, Inc.'s total Q4 2025 revenue of $1,049.5 million. This recovery followed a sharp contraction in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, where revenues declined 37.8% year over year, amounting to only $15.8 million.

The strategic reality for this unit centers on its established technological standing versus its limited market scope:

• Hologic, Inc. is a recognized leader in Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) technology.
• The total market size restricts the strategic importance of this segment, even for a leader.
• Historical volatility includes a Q1 2025 decline of 37.8%.
• The Q4 2025 revenue of $29.2 million is small relative to the Diagnostics segment's $454.1 million in the same period.

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

You're looking at the products within Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) that are currently consuming cash due to high investment needs but have the potential for future market leadership. These are the Question Marks, operating in high-growth areas but not yet commanding a dominant market share.

COVID-19 Diagnostics Revenue represents a rapidly shrinking revenue stream, a classic sign of a product moving out of its peak growth phase. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the COVID-19 revenue, which included $5.9 million in assay revenue and $23.2 million in other related revenue, decreased by (27.3%) year-over-year. This decline contrasts sharply with the core business, as organic diagnostics sales, excluding COVID-19 revenue, grew 5.4% in that same Q4 2025 period.

New Molecular Diagnostics Assays, such as the BV/CV/TV assay, are the areas Hologic is pushing to become future Stars. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, molecular diagnostics revenue grew 6.7%. Specifically, the BV/CV/TV assay achieved strong double-digit growth in Q1 2025. Growth remained positive, with molecular diagnostics revenue increasing 1.0% reported in Q2 2025 and 3.2% reported in Q3 2025.

The Biotheranostics Oncology Business, a recently acquired lab testing segment, is positioned in a large, growing market. In Q1 2025, this business continued to grow at a healthy double-digit rate within the molecular diagnostics segment. The entire diagnostics division is projected to grow at a mid-single digits rate for the full fiscal year 2025, with molecular assays and Biotheranostics cited as key drivers.

AI-Enhanced Systems, like the Genius Detection PRO mammography solution, require significant capital to achieve widespread adoption, fitting the Question Mark profile. This system, which acts as a second set of eyes for radiologists, has been shown to reduce the overall reading time for radiologists by up to 24%. While Hologic is focused on expanding this platform, the broader AI in Breast Imaging market is projected to reach USD 5,944.3 million by 2033, indicating the high-growth potential of this investment area.

Here is a summary of the key statistical and financial data points associated with these high-growth, lower-market-share areas as of the 2025 fiscal year reporting:

You should note the following specific performance indicators for these units:

• COVID-19 revenue for Q4 2025 was $29.1 million total.
• Molecular diagnostics revenue grew 6.7% in Q1 2025.
• The BV/CV/TV assay saw strong double-digit growth in Q1 2025.
• Biotheranostics lab testing grew at a healthy double-digit rate in Q1 2025.
• The Genius AI Detection PRO solution reduced reading time by up to 24%.

The trajectory of these investments is critical for Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) to avoid these units becoming Dogs. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.