The Mosaic Company (MOS): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking for a clear line of sight on The Mosaic Company's growth plan for 2025, and honestly, after two decades analyzing these giants, the Ansoff Matrix lays it out perfectly: it's not just about digging more dirt. We see them doubling down on core efficiency-driving $250 million in cost cuts while pushing Potash output toward 9.4 million tonnes-that's Market Penetration. But the real story is the dual push: expanding sales in Brazil by 15% (Market Development) while aggressively scaling their high-margin Biosciences platform, aiming for 100% growth in the first half (Product Development). And then there's the big, contrarian move: investing in recovering five rare earth elements from waste, a true diversification play outside fertilizer. Below, I break down exactly how these four paths define The Mosaic Company's strategy right now.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how The Mosaic Company is pushing harder in its existing markets-that's market penetration in a nutshell. It's all about selling more of what you already make to the customers you already serve, often by being more efficient or more aggressive on volume.

For 2025, The Mosaic Company is definitely focused on maximizing output to meet what they see as strong demand. They've actually raised their full-year Potash production guidance. You should note the latest official target is now between $9.3$ to $9.5$ million tonnes for 2025, up from earlier estimates. This push for volume is key to capturing market share right now.

On the cost side, which directly impacts competitive pricing, The Mosaic Company is doubling down. They achieved an initial cost reduction goal and have now expanded it. The target is now set at $250$ million for cost savings, which will help them maintain a sharp edge on pricing against competitors.

For Phosphate, the focus is on sustainably higher operating rates to boost volume. While the internal plan you mentioned targeted $6.3-6.5$ million tonnes, the latest publicly stated full-year production volume guidance for 2025 is actually a bit higher, set at $7.0$ to $7.3$ million tonnes. This reflects efforts to get facilities like New Wales and Riverview running consistently at their expected run rates.

A significant operational enhancement supporting this volume push is the completed Esterhazy Hydrofloat project. This project is now complete and started producing potash in July 2025, adding an annual capacity of $400,000$ tonnes of MOP. This new capacity is specifically expected to yield low-cost potash tons, which is a direct win for cost competitiveness.

To tie these operational improvements to the customer experience, The Mosaic Company is instilling a digital mindset. This isn't just about buzzwords; it's about tangible results that improve how they operate and serve you. Here's a quick look at how some of these operational and cost targets stack up for 2025:

The drive for efficiency is also reflected in cost per tonne metrics. For instance, Potash cash production cost per tonne decreased to $178 in the second quarter of 2025 from $187 in the first quarter of 2025, showing immediate benefits from cost control measures. Also, Phosphate cash cost of conversion per tonne declined 14% year-over-year to $87 per tonne in the first quarter of 2025. These are the concrete results of focusing on operational excellence and digital efficiency.

The Mosaic Company is using these internal improvements to fuel market penetration by ensuring product availability and competitive value. For example, they are confident U.S. phosphate operations will reach an 8 million tonne annualized run rate in the second half of the year.

Finance: review the impact of the $250$ million cost savings target on Q4 pricing strategy by next Tuesday.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how The Mosaic Company pushes its existing products into new geographic areas, which is the core of Market Development here. This strategy heavily relies on their strong position in Brazil, which they are actively expanding.

The Mosaic Company is capitalizing on strong market access to grow Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes by approximately 15% in 2025. This expected growth is directly supported by the new infrastructure coming online in Brazil.

The new Palmeirante blending facility in Tocantins, Brazil, which began operations in July 2025, is a key enabler. This facility, an investment of $84 million, is expected to process approximately 500,000 tonnes of fertilizer in 2025. This supports the overall Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volume target of 10.0-10.8 million tonnes for the full year. The overall expectation is for total sales in Brazil to rise from 10 million tonnes in 2024 to 10.8 million tons in 2025.

The expansion of the distribution network in key international markets is focused on capturing demand acceleration. The Mosaic Company serves customers in approximately 40 countries. Specifically in Brazil, distribution sales are targeted to grow from less than 8 million tonnes in 2024 to 13-14 million tonnes by the end of the decade.

The push into new product applications within existing markets is also evident. Through its Mosaic Biosciences platform, The Mosaic Company is advancing biological solutions. The biostimulant Neptunion, which helps crops address abiotic pressures like drought and heat, is currently undergoing the registration process in both India and Brazil as of May 2025.

The Mosaic Company focuses investments on resilient opportunities where it already holds a competitive advantage. As the second-largest integrated phosphate producer globally, a key part of this is expanding its performance products portfolio. A stated 2025 ESG target is to achieve 30% performance product sales as a share of total production of phosphate and potash crop nutrient tonnes by 2025.

Here's a quick look at the scale and investment supporting this market development:

The company's competitive advantage is also underpinned by its scale as one of the four largest potash fertilizer producers in the world.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how The Mosaic Company is pushing new offerings to grow revenue, which is the heart of the Product Development quadrant in the Ansoff Matrix. This isn't just about fertilizer volume; it's about selling smarter, higher-value solutions.

The Mosaic Biosciences platform is definitely seeing action. For the first half of 2025, product sales for Mosaic Biosciences more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024. Management has stated the platform is on track to double its annual revenue for 2025. This aggressive growth is a key focus area for value-creating growth in 2025.

Regarding new biological products, The Mosaic Company is executing on its pipeline. In the first half of 2025, Mosaic Biosciences had already launched two new products year-to-date, and remains on track to launch an additional three products in the second half of the year. This execution is part of a broader strategic priority to scale Mosaic Biosciences.

The push for higher-margin offerings is clear in the core nutrient business too. The Mosaic Company has a stated goal to achieve 30% performance product sales as a share of total production of phosphate and potash crop nutrient tonnes by 2025. This focus on performance products, alongside Mosaic Biosciences, is part of the strategy to move away from pure commodity sales for higher margins.

When we talk about improving nutrient use efficiency for farmers, the MicroEssentials formulations are the concrete example. These products use the patented Fusion® technology to pack essential nutrients-phosphorus, nitrogen, sulfur, and zinc-into a single granule. This design helps increase nutrient uptake. Specifically, MicroEssentials meets the Enhanced Efficiency Fertilizer (EEF) standards because it offers 50% of its total sulfur as Elemental Sulfur, which is a slow-release form. The product line includes distinct formulations tailored to regional needs, such as MicroEssentials SZ®, S15®, and S10®.

To maximize returns from existing production streams, The Mosaic Company is also focusing on co-product sales as a strategic priority. The financial expectation for these streams in 2025 provides a tangible number for this effort.

The development of these specialized products, like the MicroEssentials line which can help growers reduce emissions up to fifty-five percent when combined with 4R practices, shows a clear path to differentiated revenue streams. Finance: draft the Q4 2025 forecast incorporating the 30% performance product share by Friday.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

The Mosaic Company is actively pursuing diversification by monetizing non-core assets and expanding into higher-margin, technology-driven segments like biosciences and critical mineral recovery.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) from Phosphogypsum Research and Potential

• Mosaic produces approximately 19.7 million tons per year of Phosphogypsum at three active facilities in central Florida.
• Mosaic estimates approximately 6,900 tons per year of recoverable REE in the Phosphogypsum.
• The initial economic assessment for the 50/50 joint venture to recover REEs at Uberaba operations is expected in 2025.

New Product Market Entry: Biostimulants in China

The Mosaic Biosciences platform is a key area for growth outside of core fertilizer, with the launch of Neptunion in a new region.

• Neptunion was launched in China on May 6, 2025.
• The Mosaic Biosciences platform is doubling sales in 2025.

Performance Products and Growth Metrics

The focus on Performance Products, which includes biosciences, shows tangible financial results in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment.

Strategic Asset Monetization

Exploring strategic alternatives for idled assets like the Patos de Minas mine generates immediate cash proceeds and book gains, reallocating capital.

The completion of the Patos de Minas transaction following the close of Q3 2025 contributed to the $63 million in immediate aggregate proceeds.