The Mosaic Company (MOS): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're navigating a tough market where The Mosaic Company's performance isn't just about crop prices; it's about geopolitics and green mandates. The big picture for 2025 shows global fertilizer demand growing by an estimated 1.5%, a clear opportunity, but that growth is constantly challenged by volatile natural gas costs and the political risk of export restrictions. Honest assessment: you need to understand how the push for net-zero emissions by 2040 and the potential 5-7% cost savings from AI in mining will fundamentally reshape their margins, plus how consumer demand for sustainable food is becoming a core business factor, not just a marketing point. Dive into this PESTLE breakdown to map the near-term risks and opportunities that will drive The Mosaic Company's valuation.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

Geopolitical conflicts affecting key fertilizer supply chains, especially from Eastern Europe

Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to be the single largest political risk factor for the global fertilizer market in 2025. Russia and Belarus are critical players, accounting for a combined one-third of global potash supply. Sanctions and logistical barriers, such as Lithuania blocking Belarusian fertilizer exports through the Baltic Sea, have fundamentally rerouted trade flows. The European Union, aiming to reduce its dependence, introduced gradually rising tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports in July 2025, set to continue through 2028. The Mosaic Company, as a major North American producer, benefits from this disruption because it limits competition and keeps global commodity prices elevated.

The conflict has turned the Black Sea into a fertilizer battlefield, keeping supply uncertain. This structural supply constraint is a major tailwind for The Mosaic Company's Potash segment, helping to support prices even as global demand fluctuates. The shift is pushing potash flows toward BRICS nations, with Brazil's fertilizer imports, for instance, rising to 11.54 million tonnes in the first part of 2025, up from 10.18 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. The Mosaic Company is well-positioned here, having expanded its blending and distribution network in Brazil in 2025.

US-China trade tensions impacting phosphate rock and finished fertilizer tariffs

US-China trade policy remains a high-volatility factor, directly affecting The Mosaic Company's Phosphate business. China's government continues to prioritize domestic supply, which is why its phosphate export policies are a structural constraint on the global market. For 2025, all signs indicate the Chinese government will allow only 4 million tonnes of phosphate exports, a significant reduction from the historical 9-10 million tonnes per year. This restriction is a primary driver keeping phosphate prices high.

In the US, the trade landscape saw a dramatic shift in November 2025 when an executive order removed reciprocal tariffs on several key fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP). This action, which provides importers with more certainty heading into the 2026 spring season, is a near-term risk to domestic producers like The Mosaic Company, potentially easing prices. Still, the underlying US countervailing duties on subsidized phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia, which were found to have materially injured the US phosphate industry in 2021, remain in place for at least five years.

Government subsidies and farm bill policies in major agricultural markets like the US and Brazil

Government actions in key agricultural markets create both opportunity and risk for fertilizer demand. In the US, the strategic importance of The Mosaic Company's products was formally elevated in early November 2025 when the US Geological Survey (USGS) added phosphate rock and potash to its Critical Minerals List. This designation underscores the national security link between fertilizer supply and food security, potentially paving the way for future domestic production incentives.

However, US farmers are facing a squeeze from lower profitability and expectations of reduced farm subsidies, which could lead to them applying less fertilizer-a 10% drop in crop prices can trigger a 20-30% drop in fertilizer demand. Conversely, in Brazil, a major market for The Mosaic Company, the government's focus on securing supply is clear; the US exempted fertilizers from a new 40% tariff on certain Brazilian agricultural imports in July 2025. The Mosaic Company is defintely leaning into this, with its new blending facility in Palmeirante, Brazil, expected to add 1 million tonnes of sales capacity by mid-2025.

Export restrictions on potash and phosphate from major producing nations

Export restrictions are the primary political lever driving global fertilizer prices and The Mosaic Company's strong 2025 outlook. These restrictions, whether formal or informal, have created a seller's market. China's government-mandated export quotas on phosphate, which led to a near-total halt of phosphate exports in the first quarter of 2025, are the most impactful.

The US market is also protected by the countervailing duty orders on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia, which have been in effect since 2021. This protection, coupled with global supply tightness, allows The Mosaic Company to operate its North American facilities at high capacity. Here's the quick math on how the company is responding to the structural supply shortage:

The Mosaic Company's planned Potash production increase, partly from the 400,000-tonne Hydrofloat expansion at the Esterhazy mine, directly capitalizes on the supply gap created by geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe. The market is highly exposed to geopolitical risk, and The Mosaic Company is positioned to capture the value from that exposure.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

You need to focus on the economic realities of a commodity business like The Mosaic Company, which means embracing volatility. The near-term outlook for 2025 shows a strong demand floor, but it's countered by price and currency swings that can wipe out a quarter's gains if you're not careful. The good news is global fertilizer demand is projected to grow by 2.2% for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the structural need for food security.

That growth is real, but the price swings are your biggest risk. You have to manage the fact that your customers' buying power is constantly changing.

Global commodity price volatility directly influencing farmer planting decisions.

The core of The Mosaic Company's business is tied to the volatile global commodity price cycle for crop nutrients (fertilizers) and the crops they support. As of mid-2025, the World Bank's fertilizer price index was up 15% since the start of the year, showing significant upward pressure. This surge, while boosting The Mosaic Company's revenue, also directly impacts farmer planting decisions by reducing fertilizer affordability.

The nutrient affordability index dropped to 0.82 in March 2025, the lowest level since late 2022, which is a clear warning sign for future demand volume. When fertilizer gets too expensive relative to crop prices, farmers cut back on application rates, which directly hits The Mosaic Company's sales volume. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices were expected to average between $700 and $730 per tonne. Potash (MOP) prices are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, reflecting firming demand. This price strength is good, but it makes the farmer's decision defintely tougher.

High interest rates increasing the cost of capital for The Mosaic Company's expansion projects.

The persistent high-interest rate environment in the US and globally raises the hurdle rate for all new capital projects, even for a company with a strong balance sheet. The Mosaic Company's 2025 capital expenditure outlook remains substantial, maintained at a range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. This is a significant investment program, and higher rates make the financing costlier and increase the required return on invested capital (ROIC) to justify the spend.

For example, the Q3 2025 capital expenditures totaled $364 million, up from $241 million in the same quarter of the prior year, largely due to sustaining capital expenditures in the Phosphate segment. While this capital is necessary for long-term asset health and efficiency, the elevated cost of debt means the company's consolidated interest expense, which was $262 million in Q2 2025, remains a material drag on net income. Every expansion, like the new Palmeirante blending facility in Brazil, must clear a higher internal rate of return (IRR) threshold because of these rates.

Currency fluctuations, particularly the Brazilian Real, impacting sales from its largest market.

Brazil, served by the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment, is a critical growth driver, but it introduces significant foreign exchange risk. The segment's net sales were $1.6 billion in Q3 2025. The company projects approximately 15% sales volume growth in Brazil for 2025, targeting 10.0 to 10.8 million tonnes of sales volume. This is a huge opportunity.

However, the volatility of the Brazilian Real (BRL) against the US Dollar (USD) creates material financial impacts. Here's the quick math on the currency risk:

• A 0.10 change in the average BRL/USD exchange rate, unhedged, translates to a $10 million impact on full-year Adjusted EBITDA.
• In Q2 2025, the company reported a pre-tax positive impact of $220 million in unrealized gains on foreign currency transactions and derivatives, largely due to the appreciation of the Brazilian Real.

This shows the BRL can be a massive tailwind or a headwind; it cuts both ways. The company uses hedging, but structured payables and hedges were still expected to have a negative impact of $10-$15 million on segment results, assuming a BRL/USD rate between 5.5 and 6.0. You can't ignore the currency risk in this market.

Estimated 2025 global fertilizer demand growth driven by food security concerns.

The fundamental demand picture is strong, driven by the non-negotiable need to feed a growing global population, which links directly to food security. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts global fertilizer consumption (Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash) to increase by 2.2% in FY 2025, reaching a total consumption of 205 million tonnes of nutrients. This growth is expected to be led by key agricultural regions:

• Latin America is expected to contribute 19% of the growth in fertilizer use between FY 2023 and FY 2025.
• East Asia is expected to contribute 26% of the growth.

This structural demand provides a solid foundation for The Mosaic Company, which is why their Potash production volumes are trending toward a record level in 2025. The need for higher crop yields to meet global food demand is the long-term, non-cyclical driver that underpins the whole business. It's the one constant in this volatile market.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're seeing a powerful shift in the social landscape, and it's one of the most important drivers for The Mosaic Company right now. It boils down to two core ideas: more people need more food, but they want that food grown better. This societal pressure creates a clear, near-term opportunity for high-margin, specialized nutrient products, but it also slams into the reality of rising labor costs at the mine.

Increasing consumer demand for sustainably-sourced and traceable food products

The consumer is no longer a passive buyer; they are demanding proof of sustainability and traceability from the farm up. This is a massive market signal for Mosaic. Globally, a substantial 72% of consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable products. To be fair, price is still a factor, but this willingness translates into consumers paying an average of 9.7% more for sustainably sourced goods. That's real money flowing toward better practices.

This trend is fueling explosive growth in markets that rely on specialized, efficient inputs. The global organic food market, for instance, is projected to reach $380.8 billion by 2025. For Mosaic, the action is in their advanced nutrient solutions. The company is actively scaling its Biosciences platform and has a clear target: achieving 30% performance product sales as a share of total production by the end of 2025. This is where the higher margins are, moving beyond commodity fertilizer to value-added products like PowerCoat and BioPath.

Growing global population and dietary shifts driving long-term fertilizer demand

The long-term outlook for fertilizer demand remains fundamentally strong, so don't lose sight of the big picture. The world's population, which drives all of this, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, requiring a massive increase in agricultural output. In the near term, this translates to a healthy market for core products.

For the 2025 fiscal year, global fertilizer consumption is forecast to reach 205 Mt (million metric tonnes) of nutrients, representing a 2.2% increase from the prior year. Mosaic is positioning its production to meet this demand, with a 2025 production volume guidance of 9.3-9.5 million tonnes for potash and 7.0-7.3 million tonnes for phosphate. The long-term demand for potash, a key product for Mosaic, is projected to increase by around 70% by 2050 globally. That's a powerful demographic tailwind.

Labor shortages and wage inflation impacting mining and processing costs

The social factor that hits the P&L statement most directly is the labor crunch, particularly in the North American mining and processing segments. The industry is facing a demographic wall: the average age of a skilled mining professional has climbed to 54 years in the last decade, and 70% of manufacturing employers report difficulty finding workers with the necessary technical skills.

This shortage creates wage pressure. Average industrial wages have increased by 18% over the past three years. Plus, a decline in labor productivity in the US mining sector (excluding oil and gas) of 5.7% in 2024 means you're paying more for less output, which is a killer for margins. Mosaic is fighting this with a company-wide focus on efficiency, having already achieved its initial $150 million cost reduction program in 2025 and expanding the target to $250 million. For example, their Potash cash production cost per tonne was $178 in Q2 2025, a slight improvement from $187 in Q1 2025.

Focus on soil health and precision agriculture adoption among large-scale farmers

The demand for sustainable food is being met by technology on the farm, specifically through precision agriculture (PA) and an intense focus on soil health. This is a massive opportunity for Mosaic's specialized products.

The global precision agriculture market is booming, projected to exceed $12 billion by 2025, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12-15%. Farmers are adopting these tools quickly: over 60% of large farms are expected to implement advanced PA solutions this year. This matters because PA uses data to apply fertilizer exactly where and when it's needed, driving demand for high-efficiency, premium products rather than bulk commodities. For instance, 53.44% of farmers are now using sensors for plant protection and nutrition to optimize inputs. Mosaic's strategy to increase its performance product sales to 30% by 2025 is a direct response to this shift.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

The Mosaic Company's technological strategy in 2025 is focused on two clear objectives: driving down production costs through operational efficiency and capturing higher-margin sales by offering sustainable, precision-focused products. This dual focus is supported by a significant digital investment that is already yielding quantifiable savings.

The company is on track to achieve its $150 million annual cost reduction target by the end of 2025, following a multi-year, $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform. This is a defintely a big move, and it sets the stage for a further expansion of this value capture program to $250 million by the end of 2026. This is about more than just IT; it's about using data to make better decisions, faster.

Development of enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) to reduce environmental runoff

Mosaic is actively shifting its product mix toward enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) and biologicals, which directly address environmental concerns like nutrient runoff while providing higher margins. The company's Performance Products-which include EEFs like MicroEssentials® and Aspire®-are a strategic priority, aiming to achieve 30% of total phosphate and potash crop nutrient tonnes sold by the end of 2025. This is a critical metric for long-term revenue stability.

The Mosaic Biosciences platform, which develops biostimulants to improve nutrient uptake, is experiencing rapid commercial growth. Sales from this segment are on track to more than double in 2025 compared to the prior year, with high gross margins around 60% on own-developed products. Furthermore, the company has a 2025 target to facilitate the implementation of 4R Nutrient Stewardship (Right Source, Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place) on 25 million acres in North America, which is a direct technological and agronomic effort to reduce environmental impact.

Automation and AI in mining operations to improve safety and cut extraction costs by an estimated 5-7%

The integration of automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a major lever for operational excellence, especially in mining. Mosaic's NextGEN technology initiative is deploying Integrated Operations Centers, like the one managing Florida mining, and advanced process controls at sites like the Esterhazy K3 Potash Project. This allows for remote operation of equipment, moving personnel out of hazardous zones and enabling continuous, 24/7 operation.

While a precise, company-wide 5-7% cost reduction from this specific technology is an estimate, it is a realistic expectation based on industry benchmarks. For example, AI-driven predictive maintenance in mining is known to reduce parts costs by 10-15% and autonomous haul trucks can increase ore extraction efficiency by up to 30% in the broader sector. Mosaic is realizing these gains through projects like the Hydrofloat expansion at Esterhazy, which was completed in July 2025 and will add 400,000 tonnes of annual potash capacity, directly lowering the cash cost of production per tonne.

Use of remote sensing and satellite data for precision application recommendations

The company is deeply invested in the precision agriculture revolution, not just as a supplier but as a data partner. Mosaic is leveraging remote sensing and satellite data to help growers implement variable-rate fertilizer application. This technology incorporates multiple data layers, including real-time weather and soil electrical conductivity, to optimize application rates.

This capability is a strategic differentiator, allowing Mosaic to provide knowledge-intensive guidance that improves fertilizer-use efficiency. It's about ensuring every dollar a farmer spends on fertilizer is maximized, which is critical given current high commodity and input prices. The goal is to sustain or increase production while reducing total nutrient inputs.

Innovations in sustainable phosphate rock processing to reduce gypsum waste

The massive scale of phosphogypsum (PG) waste-a mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate processing-is a significant long-term technological and environmental challenge. Mosaic is pursuing two main avenues to innovate its management of this waste:

• Rare Earth Element (REE) Recovery: The company is supporting ongoing research to responsibly recover five critical rare earth elements from the phosphogypsum byproduct. This turns a waste product into a potential revenue stream and a strategic domestic source of critical minerals.
• Alternative Use Pilot: Following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approval, Mosaic is conducting a pilot project at its Mulberry facility using an estimated 1,200 tons of phosphogypsum as an ingredient in road construction.

Still, the sheer volume of the waste is a constraint. The company is simultaneously pursuing a significant expansion of a phosphogypsum stack in Hillsborough County, Florida, to accommodate an estimated 48 million tons of additional storage capacity, underscoring that innovative solutions are still playing catch-up to the volume of production.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

You're looking for a clear map of the legal risks that could hit The Mosaic Company's bottom line in 2025, and honestly, the regulatory environment is getting more complex and more expensive, not less. The key takeaway is that the biggest near-term legal exposures aren't fines for past actions, but the rising cost of compliance and the threat of new, restrictive government oversight-both in environmental practices and market structure.

Stricter enforcement of anti-trust regulations regarding industry consolidation

The fertilizer industry is facing a new level of scrutiny on market concentration and pricing. In September 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, with fertilizer being a primary focus. This is a clear signal that the government is actively looking for anti-competitive behavior, especially since USDA data shows U.S. fertilizer costs have jumped 37% since 2020.

When the DOJ/USDA probe was announced, The Mosaic Company's shares dropped nearly 5%, showing the immediate market anxiety over potential investigations, divestitures, or price controls. While there is no current formal anti-trust charge against Mosaic, the potential for a new administration to challenge future mergers or even force structural changes is a real risk. This is not a drill; the government is serious about input costs.

New international maritime laws increasing shipping and logistics compliance costs

Global shipping costs are a major variable for a company with Mosaic's international footprint, and 2025 has brought new tariffs that will directly increase logistics expenses. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced new tariffs on Chinese-related vessels calling at U.S. ports, set to take effect in October 2025. These fees start at $18 per Net Tonnage (NT) or $120 per container and are specifically aimed at the maritime sector. This will raise costs for all shippers, including fertilizer producers.

The good news is that the U.S. successfully blocked a proposed global fee on shipping emissions at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meeting in October 2025, temporarily averting a massive new compliance tax. Still, the USTR tariffs are forcing logistics providers to change operations-a recent survey showed 69% of businesses were forced to change their supply chain operations in 2025 due to tariffs, with some freight rates from China to the U.S. expected to rise by 10-20%.

Litigation risks related to historic mining waste and water usage permits

Mosaic faces persistent and escalating litigation risk, particularly in Florida and Louisiana, related to the storage and disposal of phosphogypsum (a radioactive, toxic waste product of phosphate fertilizer production) and process wastewater. Environmental groups are actively suing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revoke the current exemption of these wastes from federal hazardous waste regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). If that exemption is removed, Mosaic's compliance costs would skyrocket.

The company is also moving forward with a controversial solution: deep well injection. In 2025, Mosaic received preliminary permits to drill exploratory wells at multiple Florida facilities, including New Wales and Bartow, to test the feasibility of injecting wastewater thousands of feet underground. This is a high-stakes move, given the history of environmental incidents, such as the 2016 sinkhole at the New Wales plant that dumped over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the Floridan aquifer.

The table below summarizes the key environmental legal liabilities and associated risks:

Increased scrutiny of foreign investment in critical US infrastructure like fertilizer production

The U.S. government is tightening its oversight of foreign investment in sectors deemed critical to national security, and fertilizer production is squarely in the crosshairs. The February 2025 "America First Investment Policy" memorandum directs the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to restrict investments from "foreign adversaries" (like China and Russia) in key strategic sectors.

The policy explicitly names agriculture, critical infrastructure, and raw materials as areas of heightened scrutiny. Since fertilizer is a core input for the U.S. food supply and Mosaic is a major domestic producer of phosphate and potash, any foreign acquisition or significant investment in Mosaic or its competitors from a country like China or Russia would face an immediate and likely prohibitive CFIUS review. This limits the pool of potential strategic investors or acquirers, but also protects Mosaic's domestic market position from state-backed foreign competitors.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Carbon Tax and Emissions Regulations Targeting Energy-Intensive Production

The Mosaic Company faces significant transition risk from emerging carbon pricing and emissions regulations, especially since fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive, relying heavily on natural gas for ammonia production and process heat. The company has set a 2025 target to reduce company-wide Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 20% per tonne of product (from a 2015 baseline for North America). However, progress is uneven. In 2023, they only achieved a 3% reduction in GHG intensity since the baseline, and actually saw an 11% increase in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity year-over-year, largely due to production shortfalls and operational challenges.

This volatility in emissions intensity is a red flag for investors watching compliance costs. The company acknowledges that the threat of carbon pricing is a critical transition climate risk. Given the reliance on natural gas, a new or increased carbon tax in key operating regions like the US or Canada would immediately raise the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The finance team needs to defintely model this exposure right now.

Here's the quick math on their 2025 environmental targets and recent performance:

Water-Use Restrictions in Florida and Other Mining Regions Impacting Operations

Water scarcity and use restrictions, particularly in Florida's phosphate-rich Bone Valley region, are a persistent operational risk. The Mosaic Company is focused on meeting its 2025 target to reduce freshwater use intensity by 20% per tonne of product. Like with GHG, 2023 saw a setback, with freshwater intensity increasing 3% year-over-year, resulting in only a 4% reduction from the baseline. This shows that weather and operational issues can quickly derail environmental goals.

To manage this, the company has taken proactive steps, such as voluntarily reducing its permitted daily groundwater usage in central Florida by nearly 30 million gallons per day (MGD), a 30% reduction, through an Integrated Water Use Permit (IWUP). Still, the most controversial near-term action is the push for deep well injection.

• Deep Well Injection: The Mosaic Company is pursuing Class V Exploratory Underground Injection Well (UIC) permits at four Florida facilities (Plant City, Mulberry, Bartow, Riverview) to manage excess non-hazardous wastewater.
• Regulatory Approval: As of late 2025, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has signaled conditional approval for exploratory wells, such as the one at Plant City, to test the feasibility of injecting treated water 8,000 feet underground.
• Controversy: Environmental groups are challenging this, warning of irreversible risks if contaminants like arsenic and cadmium leak into the Floridan aquifer, citing the state's sinkhole-prone geology.

Pressure from Investors and NGOs to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions Targets by 2040

Investor and non-governmental organization (NGO) pressure has solidified The Mosaic Company's long-term climate commitments, but scrutiny remains high, especially on Scope 3 emissions. The company has a firm commitment to achieve net-zero GHG emissions companywide by 2040, which includes its operations in Brazil. They are also targeting net-zero for their Florida, US, operations even sooner, by 2030.

The main pressure point is the full value chain (Scope 3) emissions, which are estimated to comprise over 60% of the company's total emissions. Investor groups have filed resolutions requesting the Board disclose a plan to align all Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions reductions with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. The company is addressing this by engaging suppliers and investing in solutions like 4R Nutrient Stewardship to reduce emissions from fertilizer use on farms.

Managing and Remediating Phosphogypsum Stacks, a Major Waste Product

The management of phosphogypsum stacks-the mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate fertilizer production-is a long-term liability and a major environmental challenge. In 2015, The Mosaic Company entered into a settlement with the EPA, agreeing to fund a dedicated trust fund for the closure and long-term care of its stacks in Florida and Louisiana, with the estimated cost for this work being $1.8 billion. The initial trust fund contribution was $630 million.

In late 2025, the challenge is twofold: managing existing stacks and finding new storage/use solutions. The company is currently seeking to expand its Riverview gypstack by approximately 140 acres to create room for an estimated 48 million tons of gypsum storage, which would extend the facility's life by about two decades. Simultaneously, The Mosaic Company is pursuing alternative uses, having received federal approval in late 2024 to test phosphogypsum as a component in road construction, with a pilot project using 1,200 tons underway at the Mulberry facility. The risk remains high due to past incidents, like the 2016 sinkhole at New Wales, which released over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the aquifer.

Your next step: Strategy team should model the impact of a 15% increase in natural gas prices on the cost of goods sold by end of Q1 2026.