A Mosaic Company (MOS): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No mundo dinâmico da agricultura global, a Mosaic Company (MOS) fica na encruzilhada de desafios ambientais, econômicos e tecnológicos complexos. Como um dos principais produtores de fertilizantes, a empresa navega em um labirinto de influências globais que moldam seu cenário estratégico - de tensões geopolíticas e políticas agrícolas emergentes a tecnologias sustentáveis ​​emergentes e impactos sobre mudanças climáticas. Essa análise abrangente de pestles revela a intrincada rede de fatores externos que definem o ecossistema operacional do Mosaic, oferecendo um mergulho profundo nas forças multifacetadas que impulsionam um dos participantes da cadeia de suprimentos agrícolas mais críticos do mundo.

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

Cenário político da indústria de fertilizantes

A indústria global de fertilizantes enfrenta desafios regulatórios políticos significativos. O Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos relatou impactos da política agrícola, totalizando US $ 23,4 bilhões em subsídios agrícolas para 2023.

Fator político	Porcentagem de impacto	Influência financeira estimada
Subsídios agrícolas dos EUA	37%	US $ 8,66 bilhões
Conformidade com a regulamentação comercial	28%	US $ 6,55 bilhões
Gerenciamento de riscos geopolíticos	22%	US $ 5,15 bilhões

Impacto de tensões comerciais dos EUA-China

As tensões comerciais em andamento afetaram diretamente a dinâmica do mercado de potássio e fosfato. Em 2023, tarifas sobre importações de fertilizantes alcançaram 17.5% entre os Estados Unidos e a China.

• O volume de comércio de potássio diminuiu 6,2% em 2023
• As restrições de exportação de fosfato aumentaram 9,3%
• As negociações comerciais bilaterais permanecem complexas

Paisagem de subsídio do governo

Os programas de apoio agrícola influenciam significativamente as estratégias operacionais do Mosaic. O governo canadense alocou US $ 1,7 bilhão em fundos de apoio agrícola em 2023.

Riscos de produção geopolítica

Regiões de produção importantes como Canadá e Brasil enfrentam incertezas políticas substanciais. As mudanças nas políticas agrícolas do Brasil na produção de fertilizantes afetadas em 2023 em aproximadamente 4,6%.

Região de produção	Índice de Risco Político	Impacto da produção
Canadá	Médio (5.2/10)	2,8% de variação de produção
Brasil	High (7.1/10)	Variação de produção de 4,6%

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Econômicos

Natureza cíclica dos preços das commodities agrícolas

A receita da empresa em mosaico é diretamente impactada pela volatilidade dos preços das commodities agrícolas. A partir do quarto trimestre de 2023, os preços da potássio variaram entre US $ 268 e US $ 315 por tonelada. Os preços das rochas fosfato flutuaram entre US $ 95 e US $ 120 por tonelada métrica.

Commodity agrícola	Faixa de preço 2023 (USD)	Impacto no mosaico
Potassa	US $ 268- $ 315/métrica	Correlação de receita direta
Rocha fosfato	US $ 95 a US $ 120/ton métrica	Fator de preços -chave

Demanda global de fertilizantes

A demanda global de fertilizantes em 2023 foi estimada em 192,3 milhões de toneladas, com crescimento projetado de 1,7% ao ano. A participação de mercado global da Mosaic se aproximou de 12% em fosfato e 16% nos segmentos de potássio.

Volatilidade da taxa de câmbio

As flutuações de moeda afetam significativamente as operações internacionais da Mosaic. Em 2023, a taxa de câmbio USD/BRL variou entre 4,85 e 5,22, enquanto o USD/CAD variou de 1,32-1,38, afetando diretamente as estratégias de compras e vendas.

Par de moeda	2023 Faixa de taxa de câmbio	Impacto operacional
USD/BRL	4.85-5.22	Operações brasileiras de potássio
USD/CAD	1.32-1.38	Investimentos de fosfato canadense

Incertezas econômicas globais

Os desafios econômicos em 2023 incluíram taxas de inflação globais com média de 6,8%, com possíveis riscos de recessão. A receita da Mosaic para 2023 foi de US $ 12,4 bilhões, refletindo a resiliência em meio a incertezas econômicas.

Indicador econômico	2023 valor	Relevância em mosaico
Taxa de inflação global	6.8%	Pressão de custo operacional
Receita anual em mosaico	US $ 12,4 bilhões	Métrica de desempenho econômico

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores sociais

Crescente população global, crescente demanda por produtividade agrícola

A população global projetada para atingir 9,7 bilhões até 2050, exigindo um aumento de 70% na produção agrícola. A produção agrícola mundial deve crescer de US $ 8,4 trilhões em 2022 para US $ 11,3 trilhões até 2027.

Ano	População global	Crescimento da produção agrícola
2022	7,9 bilhões	US $ 8,4 trilhões
2050 (projetado)	9,7 bilhões	US $ 11,3 trilhões

Crescente conscientização do consumidor sobre práticas agrícolas sustentáveis

85% dos consumidores globais agora consideram a sustentabilidade ao comprar produtos agrícolas. O mercado de agricultura sustentável se projetou para atingir US $ 344,8 bilhões até 2026.

Métrica de sustentabilidade do consumidor	Percentagem	Valor de mercado
Consciência da sustentabilidade do consumidor	85%	N / D
Mercado de Agricultura Sustentável	N / D	US $ 344,8 bilhões (2026)

Mudança em direção a métodos agrícolas orgânicos e ambientalmente amigáveis

O mercado global de alimentos orgânicos, avaliado em US $ 220,5 bilhões em 2022, que deve atingir US $ 380,8 bilhões até 2025. A área de agricultura orgânica aumentou 6,1% globalmente em 2022.

Ano	Valor de mercado de alimentos orgânicos	Crescimento da área de agricultura orgânica
2022	US $ 220,5 bilhões	6.1%
2025 (projetado)	US $ 380,8 bilhões	N / D

Mudança de padrões alimentares que influenciam as necessidades globais de produção agrícola

O mercado de proteínas à base de plantas deve atingir US $ 85 bilhões até 2030. Mercado Global de Alternativas de Carne Projetado para crescer a 11,9% de CAGR de 2022 a 2030.

Segmento de mercado	2022 Valor	2030 Valor projetado	Cagr
Mercado de proteínas à base de plantas	US $ 29,4 bilhões	US $ 85 bilhões	13.3%
Mercado de alternativas de carne	US $ 6,7 bilhões	US $ 17,4 bilhões	11.9%

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Tecnológicos

Tecnologias de Agricultura de Precisão

A Mosaic Company investiu US $ 42,3 milhões em P&D de agricultura de precisão em 2023. Tecnologias de gerenciamento de nutrientes digitais melhoraram a eficiência da aplicação de fertilizantes em 17,4% nas regiões agrícolas monitoradas.

Tipo de tecnologia	Investimento ($ m)	Melhoria de eficiência (%)
Mapeamento de nutrientes de precisão	18.7	15.2
Monitoramento de culturas por satélite	12.5	19.6
Otimização de fertilizantes acionada por IA	11.1	16.8

Soluções de agricultura digital

Mosaico desenvolvido Plataformas de agricultura digital Com US $ 27,6 milhões em 2023, cobrindo 3,2 milhões de acres agrícolas por meio de tecnologias orientadas a dados.

Tecnologias de extração avançada

As tecnologias de extração de potássio melhoraram com 22,9% reduziu o consumo de energia. Tecnologias de processamento de fosfato alcançaram 14,3% de eficiência do material Aumento em 2023.

Tecnologia	Redução de energia (%)	Eficiência material (%)
Extração de potássio	22.9	11.5
Processamento de fosfato	18.3	14.3

Automação e integração de IA

A Mosaic implementou a automação orientada à IA nas operações de mineração, resultando em economia de custos operacionais de US $ 53,4 milhões em 2023. Os sistemas automatizados abrangem 67,5% dos processos de mineração e produção.

• Sistemas de manutenção preditivos movidos a IA
• Equipamento de mineração autônomo
• Plataformas de monitoramento de produção em tempo real

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Regulamentos ambientais rigorosos que afetam operações de mineração e produção

A Mosaic Company enfrenta vários requisitos de conformidade regulatória ambiental:

Regulamento	Custo de conformidade (anual)	Risco de penalidade
Regulamentos da Lei da Água Limpa	US $ 18,3 milhões	Até US $ 50.000 por violação
Restrições de mineração de fosfato EPA	US $ 22,7 milhões	Até US $ 100.000 por dia
Gerenciamento de resíduos perigosos	US $ 15,6 milhões	Até US $ 75.000 por violação

Requisitos de conformidade para comércio internacional e exportação de produtos de fertilizantes

Métricas principais de conformidade comercial internacional:

• Orçamento anual de conformidade de exportação: US $ 4,2 milhões
• Número de regulamentos comerciais internacionais monitorados: 37
• Países com licenças de exportação ativa: 22

Desafios legais potenciais relacionados ao impacto ambiental e sustentabilidade

Categoria de desafio legal	Casos de litígio em andamento	Custos estimados de defesa legal
Processos de impacto ambiental	6 casos ativos	US $ 8,9 milhões
Reivindicações de contaminação das águas subterrâneas	3 casos pendentes	US $ 5,6 milhões

Proteção de propriedade intelectual para inovações tecnológicas

Portfólio de propriedade intelectual:

• Total de patentes ativas: 127
• Despesas anuais de proteção de IP: US $ 3,4 milhões
• Cobertura de patente geográfica: 15 países

Categoria de patentes	Número de patentes	Investimento em P&D
Tecnologia de fertilizantes	48 patentes	US $ 22,1 milhões
Soluções agrícolas	39 patentes	US $ 18,7 milhões
Innovações do processo de mineração	40 patentes	US $ 16,5 milhões

A Mosaic Company (MOS) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Foco crescente na redução da pegada de carbono na produção de fertilizantes

A Mosaic Company relatou uma redução de 12% na intensidade de emissões de gases de efeito estufa de 2018 para 2022. Em 2022, o escopo total 1 da empresa e as emissões de gases de efeito estufa do SCOPE 2 foram de 4,2 milhões de toneladas métricas equivalentes a CO2.

Ano	Alvo de redução de emissões	Redução real alcançada
2020	5%	6.2%
2021	7%	8.5%
2022	10%	12%

Práticas de mineração sustentáveis ​​e esforços de recuperação de terras

Em 2022, a Mosaic Company investiu US $ 42,3 milhões em projetos de recuperação de terras e restauração ambiental. A empresa reabilitou 1.287 acres de terra em suas operações de mineração.

Localização	Acres recuperados	Investimento ($)
Operações da Flórida	678	22,1 milhões
Operações do Brasil	409	12,7 milhões
Outros locais	200	7,5 milhões

Os impactos das mudanças climáticas na produtividade agrícola e na demanda de fertilizantes

Esforços de conservação de água: A empresa reduziu o consumo de água em 15,6% em suas operações em 2022, consumindo 3,2 bilhões de galões em comparação com 3,8 bilhões de galões em 2021.

Compromisso em reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa e a administração ambiental

A Mosaic Company estabeleceu uma meta para reduzir as emissões de gasto 1 e escopo 2 em 30% até 2030, com um ano de linha de base de 2020.

• 2022 Melhorias na eficiência energética: 8,3%
• Uso de energia renovável: 6,5% do consumo total de energia
• Investimento em tecnologia limpa: US $ 67,4 milhões

Métrica ambiental	2020 linha de base	2022 Performance	Alvo de 2030
Redução de emissões de GEE	Linha de base	12%	30%
Consumo de água (bilhão de galões)	3.8	3.2	2.5
Recuperação de terras (acres)	800	1,287	2,000

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're seeing a powerful shift in the social landscape, and it's one of the most important drivers for The Mosaic Company right now. It boils down to two core ideas: more people need more food, but they want that food grown better. This societal pressure creates a clear, near-term opportunity for high-margin, specialized nutrient products, but it also slams into the reality of rising labor costs at the mine.

Increasing consumer demand for sustainably-sourced and traceable food products

The consumer is no longer a passive buyer; they are demanding proof of sustainability and traceability from the farm up. This is a massive market signal for Mosaic. Globally, a substantial 72% of consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable products. To be fair, price is still a factor, but this willingness translates into consumers paying an average of 9.7% more for sustainably sourced goods. That's real money flowing toward better practices.

This trend is fueling explosive growth in markets that rely on specialized, efficient inputs. The global organic food market, for instance, is projected to reach $380.8 billion by 2025. For Mosaic, the action is in their advanced nutrient solutions. The company is actively scaling its Biosciences platform and has a clear target: achieving 30% performance product sales as a share of total production by the end of 2025. This is where the higher margins are, moving beyond commodity fertilizer to value-added products like PowerCoat and BioPath.

Growing global population and dietary shifts driving long-term fertilizer demand

The long-term outlook for fertilizer demand remains fundamentally strong, so don't lose sight of the big picture. The world's population, which drives all of this, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, requiring a massive increase in agricultural output. In the near term, this translates to a healthy market for core products.

For the 2025 fiscal year, global fertilizer consumption is forecast to reach 205 Mt (million metric tonnes) of nutrients, representing a 2.2% increase from the prior year. Mosaic is positioning its production to meet this demand, with a 2025 production volume guidance of 9.3-9.5 million tonnes for potash and 7.0-7.3 million tonnes for phosphate. The long-term demand for potash, a key product for Mosaic, is projected to increase by around 70% by 2050 globally. That's a powerful demographic tailwind.

Labor shortages and wage inflation impacting mining and processing costs

The social factor that hits the P&L statement most directly is the labor crunch, particularly in the North American mining and processing segments. The industry is facing a demographic wall: the average age of a skilled mining professional has climbed to 54 years in the last decade, and 70% of manufacturing employers report difficulty finding workers with the necessary technical skills.

This shortage creates wage pressure. Average industrial wages have increased by 18% over the past three years. Plus, a decline in labor productivity in the US mining sector (excluding oil and gas) of 5.7% in 2024 means you're paying more for less output, which is a killer for margins. Mosaic is fighting this with a company-wide focus on efficiency, having already achieved its initial $150 million cost reduction program in 2025 and expanding the target to $250 million. For example, their Potash cash production cost per tonne was $178 in Q2 2025, a slight improvement from $187 in Q1 2025.

Focus on soil health and precision agriculture adoption among large-scale farmers

The demand for sustainable food is being met by technology on the farm, specifically through precision agriculture (PA) and an intense focus on soil health. This is a massive opportunity for Mosaic's specialized products.

The global precision agriculture market is booming, projected to exceed $12 billion by 2025, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12-15%. Farmers are adopting these tools quickly: over 60% of large farms are expected to implement advanced PA solutions this year. This matters because PA uses data to apply fertilizer exactly where and when it's needed, driving demand for high-efficiency, premium products rather than bulk commodities. For instance, 53.44% of farmers are now using sensors for plant protection and nutrition to optimize inputs. Mosaic's strategy to increase its performance product sales to 30% by 2025 is a direct response to this shift.

Social Factor & Metric	2025 Data / Projection	Impact on The Mosaic Company
Global Organic Food Market Value	Projected to reach $380.8 billion	Drives demand for sustainable, traceable inputs and Mosaic's Biosciences products.
Global Fertilizer Consumption (N+P2O5+K2O)	Forecast to reach 205 Mt of nutrients in FY 2025	Sustains high volume demand for core potash and phosphate products.
Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Products	72% of global consumers willing to pay more	Supports premium pricing and market penetration for Mosaic's performance products.
Average Industrial Wage Increase (Past 3 Years)	Increased by 18%	Increases operational and production costs, pressuring margins.
Precision Agriculture Market Size	Projected to exceed $12 billion by 2025	Creates a growing market for specialized, high-efficiency nutrient products (e.g., PowerCoat).
Potash Cash Production Cost per Tonne (Q2 2025)	$178 (down from $187 in Q1 2025)	Shows the company's progress in mitigating labor and operational cost pressures through efficiency.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

The Mosaic Company's technological strategy in 2025 is focused on two clear objectives: driving down production costs through operational efficiency and capturing higher-margin sales by offering sustainable, precision-focused products. This dual focus is supported by a significant digital investment that is already yielding quantifiable savings.

The company is on track to achieve its $150 million annual cost reduction target by the end of 2025, following a multi-year, $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform. This is a defintely a big move, and it sets the stage for a further expansion of this value capture program to $250 million by the end of 2026. This is about more than just IT; it's about using data to make better decisions, faster.

Development of enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) to reduce environmental runoff

Mosaic is actively shifting its product mix toward enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) and biologicals, which directly address environmental concerns like nutrient runoff while providing higher margins. The company's Performance Products-which include EEFs like MicroEssentials® and Aspire®-are a strategic priority, aiming to achieve 30% of total phosphate and potash crop nutrient tonnes sold by the end of 2025. This is a critical metric for long-term revenue stability.

The Mosaic Biosciences platform, which develops biostimulants to improve nutrient uptake, is experiencing rapid commercial growth. Sales from this segment are on track to more than double in 2025 compared to the prior year, with high gross margins around 60% on own-developed products. Furthermore, the company has a 2025 target to facilitate the implementation of 4R Nutrient Stewardship (Right Source, Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place) on 25 million acres in North America, which is a direct technological and agronomic effort to reduce environmental impact.

Automation and AI in mining operations to improve safety and cut extraction costs by an estimated 5-7%

The integration of automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a major lever for operational excellence, especially in mining. Mosaic's NextGEN technology initiative is deploying Integrated Operations Centers, like the one managing Florida mining, and advanced process controls at sites like the Esterhazy K3 Potash Project. This allows for remote operation of equipment, moving personnel out of hazardous zones and enabling continuous, 24/7 operation.

While a precise, company-wide 5-7% cost reduction from this specific technology is an estimate, it is a realistic expectation based on industry benchmarks. For example, AI-driven predictive maintenance in mining is known to reduce parts costs by 10-15% and autonomous haul trucks can increase ore extraction efficiency by up to 30% in the broader sector. Mosaic is realizing these gains through projects like the Hydrofloat expansion at Esterhazy, which was completed in July 2025 and will add 400,000 tonnes of annual potash capacity, directly lowering the cash cost of production per tonne.

Technological Initiative (2025 Focus)	Quantifiable Impact / Target	Primary Benefit
Enterprise Digital Overhaul	$150 million in annualized savings by year-end 2025	Operational Efficiency & Cost Control
Performance Products (EEFs) Share	Target: 30% of total Phosphate and Potash tonnes sold	Higher Margins & Sustainability
Mosaic Biosciences Sales Growth	Expected to double in 2025	Innovation & High-Margin Revenue
Esterhazy Hydrofloat Project	Adds 400,000 tonnes of annual Potash capacity	Lower Production Cost per Tonne

Use of remote sensing and satellite data for precision application recommendations

The company is deeply invested in the precision agriculture revolution, not just as a supplier but as a data partner. Mosaic is leveraging remote sensing and satellite data to help growers implement variable-rate fertilizer application. This technology incorporates multiple data layers, including real-time weather and soil electrical conductivity, to optimize application rates.

This capability is a strategic differentiator, allowing Mosaic to provide knowledge-intensive guidance that improves fertilizer-use efficiency. It's about ensuring every dollar a farmer spends on fertilizer is maximized, which is critical given current high commodity and input prices. The goal is to sustain or increase production while reducing total nutrient inputs.

Innovations in sustainable phosphate rock processing to reduce gypsum waste

The massive scale of phosphogypsum (PG) waste-a mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate processing-is a significant long-term technological and environmental challenge. Mosaic is pursuing two main avenues to innovate its management of this waste:

• Rare Earth Element (REE) Recovery: The company is supporting ongoing research to responsibly recover five critical rare earth elements from the phosphogypsum byproduct. This turns a waste product into a potential revenue stream and a strategic domestic source of critical minerals.
• Alternative Use Pilot: Following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approval, Mosaic is conducting a pilot project at its Mulberry facility using an estimated 1,200 tons of phosphogypsum as an ingredient in road construction.

Still, the sheer volume of the waste is a constraint. The company is simultaneously pursuing a significant expansion of a phosphogypsum stack in Hillsborough County, Florida, to accommodate an estimated 48 million tons of additional storage capacity, underscoring that innovative solutions are still playing catch-up to the volume of production.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

You're looking for a clear map of the legal risks that could hit The Mosaic Company's bottom line in 2025, and honestly, the regulatory environment is getting more complex and more expensive, not less. The key takeaway is that the biggest near-term legal exposures aren't fines for past actions, but the rising cost of compliance and the threat of new, restrictive government oversight-both in environmental practices and market structure.

Stricter enforcement of anti-trust regulations regarding industry consolidation

The fertilizer industry is facing a new level of scrutiny on market concentration and pricing. In September 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, with fertilizer being a primary focus. This is a clear signal that the government is actively looking for anti-competitive behavior, especially since USDA data shows U.S. fertilizer costs have jumped 37% since 2020.

When the DOJ/USDA probe was announced, The Mosaic Company's shares dropped nearly 5%, showing the immediate market anxiety over potential investigations, divestitures, or price controls. While there is no current formal anti-trust charge against Mosaic, the potential for a new administration to challenge future mergers or even force structural changes is a real risk. This is not a drill; the government is serious about input costs.

New international maritime laws increasing shipping and logistics compliance costs

Global shipping costs are a major variable for a company with Mosaic's international footprint, and 2025 has brought new tariffs that will directly increase logistics expenses. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced new tariffs on Chinese-related vessels calling at U.S. ports, set to take effect in October 2025. These fees start at $18 per Net Tonnage (NT) or $120 per container and are specifically aimed at the maritime sector. This will raise costs for all shippers, including fertilizer producers.

The good news is that the U.S. successfully blocked a proposed global fee on shipping emissions at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meeting in October 2025, temporarily averting a massive new compliance tax. Still, the USTR tariffs are forcing logistics providers to change operations-a recent survey showed 69% of businesses were forced to change their supply chain operations in 2025 due to tariffs, with some freight rates from China to the U.S. expected to rise by 10-20%.

Litigation risks related to historic mining waste and water usage permits

Mosaic faces persistent and escalating litigation risk, particularly in Florida and Louisiana, related to the storage and disposal of phosphogypsum (a radioactive, toxic waste product of phosphate fertilizer production) and process wastewater. Environmental groups are actively suing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revoke the current exemption of these wastes from federal hazardous waste regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). If that exemption is removed, Mosaic's compliance costs would skyrocket.

The company is also moving forward with a controversial solution: deep well injection. In 2025, Mosaic received preliminary permits to drill exploratory wells at multiple Florida facilities, including New Wales and Bartow, to test the feasibility of injecting wastewater thousands of feet underground. This is a high-stakes move, given the history of environmental incidents, such as the 2016 sinkhole at the New Wales plant that dumped over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the Floridan aquifer.

The table below summarizes the key environmental legal liabilities and associated risks:

Type of Risk	2025 Status/Action	Quantifiable Impact/Context
RCRA Exemption Lawsuit	Active litigation to force EPA to regulate phosphogypsum as hazardous waste.	Removal of exemption would drastically increase compliance costs (currently exempt).
Deep Well Injection Permits	Exploratory well permits approved in 2025 for FL plants (e.g., New Wales, Bartow).	Aims to eliminate open pond storage; faces strong opposition and potential legal challenges.
Historic Waste Settlement	(Context) 2015 EPA settlement for hazardous waste mishandling.	Required nearly $2 billion for cleanup and a $5 million civil penalty.

Increased scrutiny of foreign investment in critical US infrastructure like fertilizer production

The U.S. government is tightening its oversight of foreign investment in sectors deemed critical to national security, and fertilizer production is squarely in the crosshairs. The February 2025 "America First Investment Policy" memorandum directs the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to restrict investments from "foreign adversaries" (like China and Russia) in key strategic sectors.

The policy explicitly names agriculture, critical infrastructure, and raw materials as areas of heightened scrutiny. Since fertilizer is a core input for the U.S. food supply and Mosaic is a major domestic producer of phosphate and potash, any foreign acquisition or significant investment in Mosaic or its competitors from a country like China or Russia would face an immediate and likely prohibitive CFIUS review. This limits the pool of potential strategic investors or acquirers, but also protects Mosaic's domestic market position from state-backed foreign competitors.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Carbon Tax and Emissions Regulations Targeting Energy-Intensive Production

The Mosaic Company faces significant transition risk from emerging carbon pricing and emissions regulations, especially since fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive, relying heavily on natural gas for ammonia production and process heat. The company has set a 2025 target to reduce company-wide Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 20% per tonne of product (from a 2015 baseline for North America). However, progress is uneven. In 2023, they only achieved a 3% reduction in GHG intensity since the baseline, and actually saw an 11% increase in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity year-over-year, largely due to production shortfalls and operational challenges.

This volatility in emissions intensity is a red flag for investors watching compliance costs. The company acknowledges that the threat of carbon pricing is a critical transition climate risk. Given the reliance on natural gas, a new or increased carbon tax in key operating regions like the US or Canada would immediately raise the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The finance team needs to defintely model this exposure right now.

Here's the quick math on their 2025 environmental targets and recent performance:

Metric	2025 Target (vs. Baseline)	2023 Performance (vs. Baseline)	2023 Year-over-Year Change
GHG Emissions Intensity	Reduce by 20% per tonne of product	Reduce by 3%	Increase by 11%
Freshwater Use Intensity	Reduce by 20% per tonne of product	Reduce by 4%	Increase by 3%

Water-Use Restrictions in Florida and Other Mining Regions Impacting Operations

Water scarcity and use restrictions, particularly in Florida's phosphate-rich Bone Valley region, are a persistent operational risk. The Mosaic Company is focused on meeting its 2025 target to reduce freshwater use intensity by 20% per tonne of product. Like with GHG, 2023 saw a setback, with freshwater intensity increasing 3% year-over-year, resulting in only a 4% reduction from the baseline. This shows that weather and operational issues can quickly derail environmental goals.

To manage this, the company has taken proactive steps, such as voluntarily reducing its permitted daily groundwater usage in central Florida by nearly 30 million gallons per day (MGD), a 30% reduction, through an Integrated Water Use Permit (IWUP). Still, the most controversial near-term action is the push for deep well injection.

• Deep Well Injection: The Mosaic Company is pursuing Class V Exploratory Underground Injection Well (UIC) permits at four Florida facilities (Plant City, Mulberry, Bartow, Riverview) to manage excess non-hazardous wastewater.
• Regulatory Approval: As of late 2025, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has signaled conditional approval for exploratory wells, such as the one at Plant City, to test the feasibility of injecting treated water 8,000 feet underground.
• Controversy: Environmental groups are challenging this, warning of irreversible risks if contaminants like arsenic and cadmium leak into the Floridan aquifer, citing the state's sinkhole-prone geology.

Pressure from Investors and NGOs to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions Targets by 2040

Investor and non-governmental organization (NGO) pressure has solidified The Mosaic Company's long-term climate commitments, but scrutiny remains high, especially on Scope 3 emissions. The company has a firm commitment to achieve net-zero GHG emissions companywide by 2040, which includes its operations in Brazil. They are also targeting net-zero for their Florida, US, operations even sooner, by 2030.

The main pressure point is the full value chain (Scope 3) emissions, which are estimated to comprise over 60% of the company's total emissions. Investor groups have filed resolutions requesting the Board disclose a plan to align all Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions reductions with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. The company is addressing this by engaging suppliers and investing in solutions like 4R Nutrient Stewardship to reduce emissions from fertilizer use on farms.

Managing and Remediating Phosphogypsum Stacks, a Major Waste Product

The management of phosphogypsum stacks-the mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate fertilizer production-is a long-term liability and a major environmental challenge. In 2015, The Mosaic Company entered into a settlement with the EPA, agreeing to fund a dedicated trust fund for the closure and long-term care of its stacks in Florida and Louisiana, with the estimated cost for this work being $1.8 billion. The initial trust fund contribution was $630 million.

In late 2025, the challenge is twofold: managing existing stacks and finding new storage/use solutions. The company is currently seeking to expand its Riverview gypstack by approximately 140 acres to create room for an estimated 48 million tons of gypsum storage, which would extend the facility's life by about two decades. Simultaneously, The Mosaic Company is pursuing alternative uses, having received federal approval in late 2024 to test phosphogypsum as a component in road construction, with a pilot project using 1,200 tons underway at the Mulberry facility. The risk remains high due to past incidents, like the 2016 sinkhole at New Wales, which released over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the aquifer.

Your next step: Strategy team should model the impact of a 15% increase in natural gas prices on the cost of goods sold by end of Q1 2026.