The Mosaic Company (MOS): Analyse du pilon [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le monde dynamique de l'agriculture mondiale, la Mosaic Company (MOS) se dresse au carrefour des défis environnementaux, économiques et technologiques complexes. En tant que producteur d'engrais de premier plan, la société navigue dans un labyrinthe d'influences mondiales qui façonnent son paysage stratégique - des tensions géopolitiques et des politiques agricoles à l'émergence des technologies durables et des impacts sur le changement climatique. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile le réseau complexe de facteurs externes qui définissent l'écosystème opérationnel de la mosaïque, offrant une plongée profonde dans les forces multiformes à l'origine de l'un des acteurs de la chaîne d'approvisionnement agricole les plus critiques au monde.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Paysage politique de l'industrie des engrais

L'industrie mondiale des engrais est confrontée à des défis réglementaires politiques importants. Le ministère américain de l'Agriculture a déclaré que la politique agricole a un impact sur la politique agricole totalisant 23,4 milliards de dollars de subventions agricoles pour 2023.

Facteur politique	Pourcentage d'impact	Influence financière estimée
Subventions agricoles américaines	37%	8,66 milliards de dollars
Compliance du réglementation commerciale	28%	6,55 milliards de dollars
Gestion des risques géopolitiques	22%	5,15 milliards de dollars

Impact des tensions commerciales américaines et chinoises

Les tensions commerciales en cours ont directement affecté la dynamique du marché de la potasse et du phosphate. En 2023, les tarifs sur les importations d'engrais atteignent 17.5% entre les États-Unis et la Chine.

• Le volume du commerce de la potasse a diminué de 6,2% en 2023
• Les restrictions d'exportation de phosphate ont augmenté de 9,3%
• Les négociations commerciales bilatérales restent complexes

Paysage des subventions du gouvernement

Les programmes de soutien agricole influencent considérablement les stratégies opérationnelles de Mosaic. Le gouvernement canadien a alloué 1,7 milliard de dollars de fonds de soutien agricole en 2023.

Risques de production géopolitique

Des régions de production clés comme le Canada et le Brésil sont confrontées à des incertitudes politiques importantes. Les changements de politique agricole du Brésil en 2023 ont eu un impact sur la production d'engrais d'environ 4,6%.

Région de production	Indice des risques politiques	Impact de la production
Canada	Moyen (5.2 / 10)	2,8% de variance de production
Brésil	Élevé (7.1 / 10)	4,6% de variance de production

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Nature cyclique des prix des produits agricoles

Les revenus de la société mosaïque sont directement touchés par la volatilité des prix des produits de base agricole. Au quatrième trimestre 2023, les prix de la potasse variaient entre 268 $ et 315 $ par tonne métrique. Les prix des roches de phosphate ont fluctué entre 95 $ et 120 $ par tonne métrique.

Marchandise agricole	Gamme de prix 2023 (USD)	Impact sur la mosaïque
Potasse	268 $ - 315 $ / tonne métrique	Corrélation des revenus directs
Phosphate rocher	95 $ - 120 $ / tonne métrique	Facteur de tarification clé

Demande mondiale d'engrais

La demande mondiale d'engrais en 2023 était estimée à 192,3 millions de tonnes métriques, avec une croissance prévue de 1,7% par an. La part de marché mondiale de Mosaic a approximé 12% en phosphate et 16% dans les segments de potasse.

Volatilité du taux de change

Les fluctuations des devises ont un impact significatif sur les opérations internationales de Mosaic. En 2023, le taux de change USD / BRL variait entre 4,85-5,22, tandis que l'USD / CAD variait de 1,32-1,38, affectant directement les stratégies d'approvisionnement et de vente.

Paire de devises	2023 Plage de taux de change	Impact opérationnel
USD / BRL	4.85-5.22	Opérations de potasse brésilienne
USD / CAD	1.32-1.38	Investissements au phosphate canadien

Incertitudes économiques mondiales

Les défis économiques en 2023 comprenaient des taux d'inflation mondiaux en moyenne de 6,8%, avec des risques de récession potentiels. Les revenus de Mosaic pour 2023 étaient de 12,4 milliards de dollars, reflétant la résilience dans un contexte d'incertitudes économiques.

Indicateur économique	Valeur 2023	Pertinence en mosaïque
Taux d'inflation mondial	6.8%	Pression de coût opérationnel
Revenu annuel de la mosaïque	12,4 milliards de dollars	Métrique de performance économique

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

La croissance mondiale croissante augmentant la demande de productivité agricole

La population mondiale prévoyait de atteindre 9,7 milliards d'ici 2050, nécessitant une augmentation de 70% de la production agricole. La production agricole mondiale devrait passer de 8,4 billions de dollars en 2022 à 11,3 billions de dollars d'ici 2027.

Année	Population mondiale	Croissance de la production agricole
2022	7,9 milliards	8,4 billions de dollars
2050 (projeté)	9,7 milliards	11,3 billions de dollars

Sensibilisation aux consommateurs sur les pratiques agricoles durables

85% des consommateurs mondiaux envisagent désormais la durabilité lors de l'achat de produits agricoles. Marché agricole durable prévu pour atteindre 344,8 milliards de dollars d'ici 2026.

Métrique de la durabilité des consommateurs	Pourcentage	Valeur marchande
Sensibilisation à la durabilité des consommateurs	85%	N / A
Marché agricole durable	N / A	344,8 milliards de dollars (2026)

Se déplacer vers des méthodes agricoles biologiques et respectueuses de l'environnement

Le marché mondial des aliments biologiques d'une valeur de 220,5 milliards de dollars en 2022, devrait atteindre 380,8 milliards de dollars d'ici 2025. La zone agricole biologique a augmenté de 6,1% À l'échelle mondiale en 2022.

Année	Valeur marchande des aliments biologiques	Croissance des zones agricoles biologiques
2022	220,5 milliards de dollars	6.1%
2025 (projeté)	380,8 milliards de dollars	N / A

Modification des modèles alimentaires influençant les besoins mondiaux de production agricole

Le marché des protéines à base de plantes devrait atteindre 85 milliards de dollars d'ici 2030. Marché mondial des alternatives de viande prévu de croître à 11,9% du TCAC de 2022 à 2030.

Segment de marché	Valeur 2022	2030 valeur projetée	TCAC
Marché de protéines à base de plantes	29,4 milliards de dollars	85 milliards de dollars	13.3%
Marché des alternatives de viande	6,7 milliards de dollars	17,4 milliards de dollars	11.9%

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Technologies d'agriculture de précision

La société de mosaïque a investi 42,3 millions de dollars dans la R&D agricole de précision en 2023. Les technologies de gestion des nutriments numériques ont amélioré l'efficacité de l'application d'engrais de 17,4% dans les régions agricoles surveillées.

Type de technologie	Investissement ($ m)	Amélioration de l'efficacité (%)
Cartographie des nutriments de précision	18.7	15.2
Surveillance des cultures par satellite	12.5	19.6
Optimisation des engrais dirigés par AI	11.1	16.8

Solutions agricoles numériques

La mosaïque s'est développée plates-formes agricoles numériques Avec 27,6 millions de dollars d'investissement en 2023, couvrant 3,2 millions d'acres agricoles grâce à des technologies axées sur les données.

Technologies d'extraction avancées

Les technologies d'extraction en potasse se sont améliorées avec une consommation d'énergie réduite de 22,9%. Les technologies de traitement du phosphate ont atteint une augmentation de 14,3% d'efficacité des matériaux en 2023.

Technologie	Réduction d'énergie (%)	Efficacité des matériaux (%)
Extraction de potasse	22.9	11.5
Traitement du phosphate	18.3	14.3

Automatisation et intégration en IA

Mosaic a mis en œuvre l'automatisation axée sur l'IA sur les opérations minières, ce qui a entraîné des économies de coûts opérationnelles de 53,4 millions de dollars en 2023. Les systèmes automatisés couvrent 67,5% des processus d'extraction et de production.

• Systèmes de maintenance prédictive alimentés par l'IA
• Équipement minière autonome
• Plateformes de surveillance de la production en temps réel

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Règlements environnementaux stricts affectant les opérations minières et de production

La société mosaïque fait face à de multiples exigences de conformité réglementaire environnementale:

Règlement	Coût de conformité (annuel)	Risque de pénalité
Règlement sur la loi sur l'eau propre	18,3 millions de dollars	Jusqu'à 50 000 $ par violation
Restrictions d'exploration de phosphate de l'EPA	22,7 millions de dollars	Jusqu'à 100 000 $ par jour
Gestion des déchets dangereux	15,6 millions de dollars	Jusqu'à 75 000 $ par violation

Exigences de conformité pour le commerce international et l'exportation de produits d'engrais

Mesures clés de la conformité du commerce international:

• Budget annuel de conformité à l'exportation: 4,2 millions de dollars
• Nombre de réglementations commerciales internationales surveillées: 37
• Pays avec des licences d'exportation actives: 22

Des défis juridiques potentiels liés à l'impact et à la durabilité de l'environnement

Catégorie de défi juridique	Cas de litige en cours	Frais de défense juridique estimés
Courstes d'impact environnemental	6 cas actifs	8,9 millions de dollars
Réclamations de contamination des eaux souterraines	3 cas en attente	5,6 millions de dollars

Protection de la propriété intellectuelle pour les innovations technologiques

Portfolio de propriété intellectuelle:

• Brevets actifs totaux: 127
• Dépenses de protection IP annuelles: 3,4 millions de dollars
• Couverture des brevets géographiques: 15 pays

Catégorie de brevet	Nombre de brevets	Investissement en R&D
Technologie des engrais	48 brevets	22,1 millions de dollars
Solutions agricoles	39 brevets	18,7 millions de dollars
Innovations du processus minier	40 brevets	16,5 millions de dollars

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Accent croissant sur la réduction de l'empreinte carbone dans la production d'engrais

La société mosaïque a déclaré une réduction de 12% de l'intensité des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 2018 à 2022. En 2022, les émissions totales de la Scope 1 et Scope 2 de la SPOPE 2 étaient de 4,2 millions de tonnes métriques CO2 équivalent.

Année	Cible de réduction des émissions	Réduction réelle réalisée
2020	5%	6.2%
2021	7%	8.5%
2022	10%	12%

Pratiques minières durables et efforts de récupération des terres

En 2022, la société de mosaïque a investi 42,3 millions de dollars dans des projets de remise en état des terres et de restauration environnementale. La société a réhabilité 1 287 acres de terrain dans ses opérations minières.

Emplacement	Acres récupérés	Investissement ($)
Opérations de Floride	678	22,1 millions
Opérations brésiliennes	409	12,7 millions
Autres emplacements	200	7,5 millions

Les effets du changement climatique sur la productivité agricole et la demande d'engrais

Efforts de conservation de l'eau: La société a réduit la consommation d'eau de 15,6% dans ses opérations en 2022, consommant 3,2 milliards de gallons, contre 3,8 milliards de gallons en 2021.

Engagement à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et la gestion de l'environnement

La Mosaic Company a fixé un objectif pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de la portée 1 et de la portée 2 de 30% d'ici 2030, avec une année de base de 2020.

• 2022 Améliorations de l'efficacité énergétique: 8,3%
• Utilisation d'énergie renouvelable: 6,5% de la consommation totale d'énergie
• Investissement dans la technologie propre: 67,4 millions de dollars

Métrique environnementale	2020 BASELINE	2022 Performance	Cible 2030
Réduction des émissions de GES	Base de base	12%	30%
Consommation d'eau (milliards de gallons)	3.8	3.2	2.5
Reclamation des terres (acres)	800	1,287	2,000

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're seeing a powerful shift in the social landscape, and it's one of the most important drivers for The Mosaic Company right now. It boils down to two core ideas: more people need more food, but they want that food grown better. This societal pressure creates a clear, near-term opportunity for high-margin, specialized nutrient products, but it also slams into the reality of rising labor costs at the mine.

Increasing consumer demand for sustainably-sourced and traceable food products

The consumer is no longer a passive buyer; they are demanding proof of sustainability and traceability from the farm up. This is a massive market signal for Mosaic. Globally, a substantial 72% of consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable products. To be fair, price is still a factor, but this willingness translates into consumers paying an average of 9.7% more for sustainably sourced goods. That's real money flowing toward better practices.

This trend is fueling explosive growth in markets that rely on specialized, efficient inputs. The global organic food market, for instance, is projected to reach $380.8 billion by 2025. For Mosaic, the action is in their advanced nutrient solutions. The company is actively scaling its Biosciences platform and has a clear target: achieving 30% performance product sales as a share of total production by the end of 2025. This is where the higher margins are, moving beyond commodity fertilizer to value-added products like PowerCoat and BioPath.

Growing global population and dietary shifts driving long-term fertilizer demand

The long-term outlook for fertilizer demand remains fundamentally strong, so don't lose sight of the big picture. The world's population, which drives all of this, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, requiring a massive increase in agricultural output. In the near term, this translates to a healthy market for core products.

For the 2025 fiscal year, global fertilizer consumption is forecast to reach 205 Mt (million metric tonnes) of nutrients, representing a 2.2% increase from the prior year. Mosaic is positioning its production to meet this demand, with a 2025 production volume guidance of 9.3-9.5 million tonnes for potash and 7.0-7.3 million tonnes for phosphate. The long-term demand for potash, a key product for Mosaic, is projected to increase by around 70% by 2050 globally. That's a powerful demographic tailwind.

Labor shortages and wage inflation impacting mining and processing costs

The social factor that hits the P&L statement most directly is the labor crunch, particularly in the North American mining and processing segments. The industry is facing a demographic wall: the average age of a skilled mining professional has climbed to 54 years in the last decade, and 70% of manufacturing employers report difficulty finding workers with the necessary technical skills.

This shortage creates wage pressure. Average industrial wages have increased by 18% over the past three years. Plus, a decline in labor productivity in the US mining sector (excluding oil and gas) of 5.7% in 2024 means you're paying more for less output, which is a killer for margins. Mosaic is fighting this with a company-wide focus on efficiency, having already achieved its initial $150 million cost reduction program in 2025 and expanding the target to $250 million. For example, their Potash cash production cost per tonne was $178 in Q2 2025, a slight improvement from $187 in Q1 2025.

Focus on soil health and precision agriculture adoption among large-scale farmers

The demand for sustainable food is being met by technology on the farm, specifically through precision agriculture (PA) and an intense focus on soil health. This is a massive opportunity for Mosaic's specialized products.

The global precision agriculture market is booming, projected to exceed $12 billion by 2025, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12-15%. Farmers are adopting these tools quickly: over 60% of large farms are expected to implement advanced PA solutions this year. This matters because PA uses data to apply fertilizer exactly where and when it's needed, driving demand for high-efficiency, premium products rather than bulk commodities. For instance, 53.44% of farmers are now using sensors for plant protection and nutrition to optimize inputs. Mosaic's strategy to increase its performance product sales to 30% by 2025 is a direct response to this shift.

Social Factor & Metric	2025 Data / Projection	Impact on The Mosaic Company
Global Organic Food Market Value	Projected to reach $380.8 billion	Drives demand for sustainable, traceable inputs and Mosaic's Biosciences products.
Global Fertilizer Consumption (N+P2O5+K2O)	Forecast to reach 205 Mt of nutrients in FY 2025	Sustains high volume demand for core potash and phosphate products.
Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Products	72% of global consumers willing to pay more	Supports premium pricing and market penetration for Mosaic's performance products.
Average Industrial Wage Increase (Past 3 Years)	Increased by 18%	Increases operational and production costs, pressuring margins.
Precision Agriculture Market Size	Projected to exceed $12 billion by 2025	Creates a growing market for specialized, high-efficiency nutrient products (e.g., PowerCoat).
Potash Cash Production Cost per Tonne (Q2 2025)	$178 (down from $187 in Q1 2025)	Shows the company's progress in mitigating labor and operational cost pressures through efficiency.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

The Mosaic Company's technological strategy in 2025 is focused on two clear objectives: driving down production costs through operational efficiency and capturing higher-margin sales by offering sustainable, precision-focused products. This dual focus is supported by a significant digital investment that is already yielding quantifiable savings.

The company is on track to achieve its $150 million annual cost reduction target by the end of 2025, following a multi-year, $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform. This is a defintely a big move, and it sets the stage for a further expansion of this value capture program to $250 million by the end of 2026. This is about more than just IT; it's about using data to make better decisions, faster.

Development of enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) to reduce environmental runoff

Mosaic is actively shifting its product mix toward enhanced-efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) and biologicals, which directly address environmental concerns like nutrient runoff while providing higher margins. The company's Performance Products-which include EEFs like MicroEssentials® and Aspire®-are a strategic priority, aiming to achieve 30% of total phosphate and potash crop nutrient tonnes sold by the end of 2025. This is a critical metric for long-term revenue stability.

The Mosaic Biosciences platform, which develops biostimulants to improve nutrient uptake, is experiencing rapid commercial growth. Sales from this segment are on track to more than double in 2025 compared to the prior year, with high gross margins around 60% on own-developed products. Furthermore, the company has a 2025 target to facilitate the implementation of 4R Nutrient Stewardship (Right Source, Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place) on 25 million acres in North America, which is a direct technological and agronomic effort to reduce environmental impact.

Automation and AI in mining operations to improve safety and cut extraction costs by an estimated 5-7%

The integration of automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a major lever for operational excellence, especially in mining. Mosaic's NextGEN technology initiative is deploying Integrated Operations Centers, like the one managing Florida mining, and advanced process controls at sites like the Esterhazy K3 Potash Project. This allows for remote operation of equipment, moving personnel out of hazardous zones and enabling continuous, 24/7 operation.

While a precise, company-wide 5-7% cost reduction from this specific technology is an estimate, it is a realistic expectation based on industry benchmarks. For example, AI-driven predictive maintenance in mining is known to reduce parts costs by 10-15% and autonomous haul trucks can increase ore extraction efficiency by up to 30% in the broader sector. Mosaic is realizing these gains through projects like the Hydrofloat expansion at Esterhazy, which was completed in July 2025 and will add 400,000 tonnes of annual potash capacity, directly lowering the cash cost of production per tonne.

Technological Initiative (2025 Focus)	Quantifiable Impact / Target	Primary Benefit
Enterprise Digital Overhaul	$150 million in annualized savings by year-end 2025	Operational Efficiency & Cost Control
Performance Products (EEFs) Share	Target: 30% of total Phosphate and Potash tonnes sold	Higher Margins & Sustainability
Mosaic Biosciences Sales Growth	Expected to double in 2025	Innovation & High-Margin Revenue
Esterhazy Hydrofloat Project	Adds 400,000 tonnes of annual Potash capacity	Lower Production Cost per Tonne

Use of remote sensing and satellite data for precision application recommendations

The company is deeply invested in the precision agriculture revolution, not just as a supplier but as a data partner. Mosaic is leveraging remote sensing and satellite data to help growers implement variable-rate fertilizer application. This technology incorporates multiple data layers, including real-time weather and soil electrical conductivity, to optimize application rates.

This capability is a strategic differentiator, allowing Mosaic to provide knowledge-intensive guidance that improves fertilizer-use efficiency. It's about ensuring every dollar a farmer spends on fertilizer is maximized, which is critical given current high commodity and input prices. The goal is to sustain or increase production while reducing total nutrient inputs.

Innovations in sustainable phosphate rock processing to reduce gypsum waste

The massive scale of phosphogypsum (PG) waste-a mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate processing-is a significant long-term technological and environmental challenge. Mosaic is pursuing two main avenues to innovate its management of this waste:

• Rare Earth Element (REE) Recovery: The company is supporting ongoing research to responsibly recover five critical rare earth elements from the phosphogypsum byproduct. This turns a waste product into a potential revenue stream and a strategic domestic source of critical minerals.
• Alternative Use Pilot: Following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approval, Mosaic is conducting a pilot project at its Mulberry facility using an estimated 1,200 tons of phosphogypsum as an ingredient in road construction.

Still, the sheer volume of the waste is a constraint. The company is simultaneously pursuing a significant expansion of a phosphogypsum stack in Hillsborough County, Florida, to accommodate an estimated 48 million tons of additional storage capacity, underscoring that innovative solutions are still playing catch-up to the volume of production.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

You're looking for a clear map of the legal risks that could hit The Mosaic Company's bottom line in 2025, and honestly, the regulatory environment is getting more complex and more expensive, not less. The key takeaway is that the biggest near-term legal exposures aren't fines for past actions, but the rising cost of compliance and the threat of new, restrictive government oversight-both in environmental practices and market structure.

Stricter enforcement of anti-trust regulations regarding industry consolidation

The fertilizer industry is facing a new level of scrutiny on market concentration and pricing. In September 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, with fertilizer being a primary focus. This is a clear signal that the government is actively looking for anti-competitive behavior, especially since USDA data shows U.S. fertilizer costs have jumped 37% since 2020.

When the DOJ/USDA probe was announced, The Mosaic Company's shares dropped nearly 5%, showing the immediate market anxiety over potential investigations, divestitures, or price controls. While there is no current formal anti-trust charge against Mosaic, the potential for a new administration to challenge future mergers or even force structural changes is a real risk. This is not a drill; the government is serious about input costs.

New international maritime laws increasing shipping and logistics compliance costs

Global shipping costs are a major variable for a company with Mosaic's international footprint, and 2025 has brought new tariffs that will directly increase logistics expenses. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced new tariffs on Chinese-related vessels calling at U.S. ports, set to take effect in October 2025. These fees start at $18 per Net Tonnage (NT) or $120 per container and are specifically aimed at the maritime sector. This will raise costs for all shippers, including fertilizer producers.

The good news is that the U.S. successfully blocked a proposed global fee on shipping emissions at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meeting in October 2025, temporarily averting a massive new compliance tax. Still, the USTR tariffs are forcing logistics providers to change operations-a recent survey showed 69% of businesses were forced to change their supply chain operations in 2025 due to tariffs, with some freight rates from China to the U.S. expected to rise by 10-20%.

Litigation risks related to historic mining waste and water usage permits

Mosaic faces persistent and escalating litigation risk, particularly in Florida and Louisiana, related to the storage and disposal of phosphogypsum (a radioactive, toxic waste product of phosphate fertilizer production) and process wastewater. Environmental groups are actively suing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revoke the current exemption of these wastes from federal hazardous waste regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). If that exemption is removed, Mosaic's compliance costs would skyrocket.

The company is also moving forward with a controversial solution: deep well injection. In 2025, Mosaic received preliminary permits to drill exploratory wells at multiple Florida facilities, including New Wales and Bartow, to test the feasibility of injecting wastewater thousands of feet underground. This is a high-stakes move, given the history of environmental incidents, such as the 2016 sinkhole at the New Wales plant that dumped over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the Floridan aquifer.

The table below summarizes the key environmental legal liabilities and associated risks:

Type of Risk	2025 Status/Action	Quantifiable Impact/Context
RCRA Exemption Lawsuit	Active litigation to force EPA to regulate phosphogypsum as hazardous waste.	Removal of exemption would drastically increase compliance costs (currently exempt).
Deep Well Injection Permits	Exploratory well permits approved in 2025 for FL plants (e.g., New Wales, Bartow).	Aims to eliminate open pond storage; faces strong opposition and potential legal challenges.
Historic Waste Settlement	(Context) 2015 EPA settlement for hazardous waste mishandling.	Required nearly $2 billion for cleanup and a $5 million civil penalty.

Increased scrutiny of foreign investment in critical US infrastructure like fertilizer production

The U.S. government is tightening its oversight of foreign investment in sectors deemed critical to national security, and fertilizer production is squarely in the crosshairs. The February 2025 "America First Investment Policy" memorandum directs the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to restrict investments from "foreign adversaries" (like China and Russia) in key strategic sectors.

The policy explicitly names agriculture, critical infrastructure, and raw materials as areas of heightened scrutiny. Since fertilizer is a core input for the U.S. food supply and Mosaic is a major domestic producer of phosphate and potash, any foreign acquisition or significant investment in Mosaic or its competitors from a country like China or Russia would face an immediate and likely prohibitive CFIUS review. This limits the pool of potential strategic investors or acquirers, but also protects Mosaic's domestic market position from state-backed foreign competitors.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Carbon Tax and Emissions Regulations Targeting Energy-Intensive Production

The Mosaic Company faces significant transition risk from emerging carbon pricing and emissions regulations, especially since fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive, relying heavily on natural gas for ammonia production and process heat. The company has set a 2025 target to reduce company-wide Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 20% per tonne of product (from a 2015 baseline for North America). However, progress is uneven. In 2023, they only achieved a 3% reduction in GHG intensity since the baseline, and actually saw an 11% increase in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity year-over-year, largely due to production shortfalls and operational challenges.

This volatility in emissions intensity is a red flag for investors watching compliance costs. The company acknowledges that the threat of carbon pricing is a critical transition climate risk. Given the reliance on natural gas, a new or increased carbon tax in key operating regions like the US or Canada would immediately raise the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The finance team needs to defintely model this exposure right now.

Here's the quick math on their 2025 environmental targets and recent performance:

Metric	2025 Target (vs. Baseline)	2023 Performance (vs. Baseline)	2023 Year-over-Year Change
GHG Emissions Intensity	Reduce by 20% per tonne of product	Reduce by 3%	Increase by 11%
Freshwater Use Intensity	Reduce by 20% per tonne of product	Reduce by 4%	Increase by 3%

Water-Use Restrictions in Florida and Other Mining Regions Impacting Operations

Water scarcity and use restrictions, particularly in Florida's phosphate-rich Bone Valley region, are a persistent operational risk. The Mosaic Company is focused on meeting its 2025 target to reduce freshwater use intensity by 20% per tonne of product. Like with GHG, 2023 saw a setback, with freshwater intensity increasing 3% year-over-year, resulting in only a 4% reduction from the baseline. This shows that weather and operational issues can quickly derail environmental goals.

To manage this, the company has taken proactive steps, such as voluntarily reducing its permitted daily groundwater usage in central Florida by nearly 30 million gallons per day (MGD), a 30% reduction, through an Integrated Water Use Permit (IWUP). Still, the most controversial near-term action is the push for deep well injection.

• Deep Well Injection: The Mosaic Company is pursuing Class V Exploratory Underground Injection Well (UIC) permits at four Florida facilities (Plant City, Mulberry, Bartow, Riverview) to manage excess non-hazardous wastewater.
• Regulatory Approval: As of late 2025, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has signaled conditional approval for exploratory wells, such as the one at Plant City, to test the feasibility of injecting treated water 8,000 feet underground.
• Controversy: Environmental groups are challenging this, warning of irreversible risks if contaminants like arsenic and cadmium leak into the Floridan aquifer, citing the state's sinkhole-prone geology.

Pressure from Investors and NGOs to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions Targets by 2040

Investor and non-governmental organization (NGO) pressure has solidified The Mosaic Company's long-term climate commitments, but scrutiny remains high, especially on Scope 3 emissions. The company has a firm commitment to achieve net-zero GHG emissions companywide by 2040, which includes its operations in Brazil. They are also targeting net-zero for their Florida, US, operations even sooner, by 2030.

The main pressure point is the full value chain (Scope 3) emissions, which are estimated to comprise over 60% of the company's total emissions. Investor groups have filed resolutions requesting the Board disclose a plan to align all Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions reductions with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. The company is addressing this by engaging suppliers and investing in solutions like 4R Nutrient Stewardship to reduce emissions from fertilizer use on farms.

Managing and Remediating Phosphogypsum Stacks, a Major Waste Product

The management of phosphogypsum stacks-the mildly radioactive byproduct of phosphate fertilizer production-is a long-term liability and a major environmental challenge. In 2015, The Mosaic Company entered into a settlement with the EPA, agreeing to fund a dedicated trust fund for the closure and long-term care of its stacks in Florida and Louisiana, with the estimated cost for this work being $1.8 billion. The initial trust fund contribution was $630 million.

In late 2025, the challenge is twofold: managing existing stacks and finding new storage/use solutions. The company is currently seeking to expand its Riverview gypstack by approximately 140 acres to create room for an estimated 48 million tons of gypsum storage, which would extend the facility's life by about two decades. Simultaneously, The Mosaic Company is pursuing alternative uses, having received federal approval in late 2024 to test phosphogypsum as a component in road construction, with a pilot project using 1,200 tons underway at the Mulberry facility. The risk remains high due to past incidents, like the 2016 sinkhole at New Wales, which released over 200 million gallons of process wastewater into the aquifer.

Your next step: Strategy team should model the impact of a 15% increase in natural gas prices on the cost of goods sold by end of Q1 2026.