Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Business Model Canvas

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Business Model Canvas [Dec-2025 Updated]

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You're looking at a company, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), that's defintely navigating a tough transition away from its pandemic peak, so understanding its core strategy now is key. Honestly, the pivot is clear: they are aggressively shifting their focus toward oncology and rare diseases, all while implementing serious cost discipline to manage the heavy R&D spend, projected at $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion for 2025. While 2025 revenue is narrowed to a range of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion, the platform's strength is backed by a projected cash hoard of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion by year-end 2025. To see exactly how this next chapter is structured-from their key partnerships like the one with Merck & Co. to their cost structure-dive into the full Business Model Canvas below.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Partnerships

You're looking at how Moderna, Inc. is structuring its external relationships to fund its next wave of growth, especially as 2025 revenue projections sit between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, down significantly from pandemic peaks. These partnerships are critical for pipeline advancement and financial stability.

Financing and Strategic Capital

A major recent move to bolster the balance sheet was securing non-dilutive financing. In November 2025, Moderna closed a five-year strategic loan with Ares Management totaling $1.5 billion. This capital is designed to provide flexibility for business development and risk management as the company works toward its 2028 cash breakeven target.

Here's how that $1.5 billion facility is structured:

Tranche Description Amount Availability/Contingency
Upfront Term Loan $600 million Funded at closing (November 2025)
Delayed Drawing Term Loan Facility (DDTL) 1 $400 million Available in draws through November 2027
Delayed Drawing Term Loan Facility (DDTL) 2 $500 million Available in draws through November 2028, contingent on key regulatory milestones

This financing is key; it gives the company room to maneuver while waiting for late-stage pipeline assets to mature. For context, in the first quarter of 2025, Research and Development Expenses were $856 million, partially offset by increased investment in the mRNA-4157 program.

Oncology and Pipeline Development Alliances

The collaboration with Merck & Co. remains a cornerstone for the oncology pipeline. The personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157 (also called intismeran autogene), is advancing in partnership with Merck, which markets Keytruda. The Phase 3 clinical trial for adjuvant melanoma completed screening for new patients in many countries in 2024, and the company noted increased investment in this program in Q1 2025.

Moderna, Inc. also maintains other key R&D alliances, drawing on government and foundation support for specific disease targets:

  • The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provided an initial $20 million grant to advance an affordable mRNA-based HIV antibody therapeutic cocktail, with an agreement that could lead to an additional $80 million in grants if Phase 1 studies are successful.
  • Historically, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) awarded Moderna up to approximately $25 million to support vaccine and antibody programs against Chikungunya infection.
  • The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) provided an award of up to approximately $125 million to help fund the Zika vaccine program.

Government and Sovereign Supply Agreements

Long-term government agreements are vital for securing future revenue streams beyond the immediate COVID-19 cycle. Moderna, Inc. expects a financial lift in 2026 based on momentum from these international partnerships focused on R&D investment and national security.

The partnership with the Australian Government is a long-term strategic commitment, set for a period of 10 years, specifically designed to establish a world-class, onshore mRNA manufacturing facility to ensure sovereign capability.

These government relationships also include supply agreements, such as the tender awarded in January 2025 with the European Union, Norway, and North Macedonia, allowing 17 participating countries to access the COVID-19 vaccine for up to four years.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Activities

You're looking at the core engine driving Moderna, Inc. right now, which is heavily focused on financial discipline while pushing a complex pipeline through late-stage hurdles. Honestly, the key activities reflect a company in transition from pandemic reliance to diversified product launches.

Research and development of the 35+ mRNA pipeline programs

Moderna, Inc. is actively managing a large portfolio, though recent pruning has refined the focus. As of early 2024, the company had 45 therapeutic and vaccine programs in development. By late 2025, this was actively managed through prioritization, which included discontinuing three clinical-stage mRNA programs in November 2025: the therapeutic vaccine candidate mRNA-1608 (for HSV), the shingles vaccine mRNA-1468 for healthy adults aged 50 and older, and the intravenous treatment mRNA-3745 for glycogen storage disease type 1a. The company is emphasizing oncology programs, with mRNA-4157 (in partnership with Merck) remaining in Phase 3 trials for melanoma.

  • Prioritized portfolio focus areas include respiratory viruses, rare diseases, and oncology.
  • Goal set in January 2025 to deliver up to 10 product approvals over the next three years.
  • The company is concentrating on expanding its respiratory pipeline, which some estimates suggest could generate $8-15 billion in annual sales by 2027.

Commercialization and distribution of seasonal respiratory vaccines

The commercial focus is clearly on driving uptake for recently approved respiratory products, which are expected to carry the revenue load for the remainder of 2025. For the third quarter of 2025, Moderna, Inc. reported total revenue of $1 billion. The full-year 2025 revenue projection was narrowed to a range of $1.6 billion to $2 billion. The next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, is a significant commercial driver, making up 55% of the company's COVID vaccination volume. In the U.S. retail market, the COVID market share stands at 42%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the prior year. The RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, gained a major catalyst in June 2025 with expanded FDA approval for at-risk adults aged 18-59.

Manufacturing scale-up and supply chain optimization

Supply chain activity is centered on efficiency and meeting new commercial demands, including international agreements. Management highlighted the delivery of made-in-Canada mRNA vaccines as part of its Q3 2025 progress. The company is actively working to optimize its cost structure, as evidenced by a 34% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2024. This reflects operational efficiencies in manufacturing and supplier contract management.

Strategic cost-cutting to reduce 2025 cash costs by $900 million

Financial discipline is a top-tier key activity, with the company actively exceeding its initial cost reduction goals. Moderna, Inc. is on track to reduce its projected 2025 cash cost by approximately $900 million since the start of the year, based on the midpoint of projections. The company is now on track to beat its 2025 cost plan by $900 million on a cash cost basis. The new target for 2025 cash operating costs is $4.6 billion. This follows an initial January 2025 projection to reduce 2025 cash cost expenses by $1.0 billion.

Clinical trial execution, especially for late-stage oncology and flu programs

Clinical execution is highly selective, prioritizing assets with the highest probability of near-term approval or significant data readouts. The flu program reported positive Phase III efficacy data in 2025. However, the congenital CMV vaccine program was discontinued following results that did not meet primary endpoints. The oncology asset mRNA-4157 (with Merck) is in Phase 3 for melanoma and is planned to expand into non-small cell lung cancer. The company anticipated milestones across 10 prioritized programs in 2025, including up to three potential 2025 approvals and six registrational data readouts.

Here's a quick look at the financial and operational snapshot as of late 2025:

Metric Value as of Late 2025 Data (Q3/Updated Guidance)
2025 Projected Revenue (Midpoint) $1.8 billion
2025 Projected Cash Cost Reduction (vs. Start of Year) $900 million
2025 Projected Ending Cash & Investments Balance $6.6 billion (Q3 reported)
Q3 2025 Revenue $1 billion
COVID Vaccine Retail Market Share (U.S.) 42%
mRNA-4157 (Oncology) Trial Phase Phase 3

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Resources

You're looking at the core assets Moderna, Inc. relies on to execute its strategy as of late 2025. These aren't just line items; they are the engines driving future revenue beyond the initial COVID-19 cycle.

Proprietary messenger RNA (mRNA) technology platform

The foundation here is the mRNA platform itself. It's the repeatable process that allows Moderna, Inc. scientists to move from identifying a target protein to designing the specific mRNA instructions needed to instruct the body's cells to produce that protein. This process is refined through proprietary learnings, especially within modules like the Sequence Designer, which tailors mRNA sequences from the 5'-UTR to the 3'-UTR. This platform is what enabled the rapid development of their first marketed product and underpins the entire pipeline across infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases. Honestly, the speed of this platform is a major competitive advantage, even as the market normalizes.

Cash and investments projected at $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion by year-end 2025

Financially, you need to see the war chest. Following aggressive cost efficiency programs, Moderna, Inc. improved its outlook. As of the third quarter of 2025, the projection for year-end cash, cash equivalents, and investments has been increased to a range of $6.5 to $7.0 billion. This improved cash position comes alongside a narrowed 2025 projected revenue range of $1.6 to $2.0 billion. Here's the quick math: ending 2025 with up to $7.0 billion in liquid assets provides significant runway to fund the late-stage pipeline development while working toward the stated goal of cash breakeven by 2028.

Global manufacturing network, including dedicated facilities

Moderna, Inc. has been busy building out its physical footprint to de-risk supply and support global distribution, moving beyond reliance on contract manufacturing partners. The network is geographically diversified to enhance pandemic readiness. What this estimate hides is the complexity of bringing these sites online and achieving full GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) status across all product lines.

Consider the capacity of the key dedicated sites now coming online or operational:

Facility Location Normal Annual Capacity (Doses) Pandemic Scaled Capacity (Doses) Status/Key Detail
United Kingdom (MITC) Up to 100 million Up to 250 million Officially opened September 24, 2025, licensed to supply UK population.
Canada (Laval, Quebec) 30 million Up to 100 million First international site to achieve Health Canada DEL; operational.
Australia (Melbourne) Up to 100 million Not explicitly stated for this site in 2025 data Planned site, part of the global hub network.

Extensive intellectual property portfolio and patent protection

The intellectual property is the moat around the technology. Moderna, Inc. has accumulated a broad collection of patents protecting its innovations, alongside several hundred additional pending patent applications. A major recent validation came in August 2025 when the UK Court of Appeal affirmed the validity of the foundational EP'949 patent, which covers chemically modified mRNA technology. This patent underpins their Spikevax vaccine and is critical for their global litigation strategy and future licensing leverage. You should track the progress of their IP enforcement as a leading indicator of future non-dilutive revenue potential.

Highly specialized R&D talent and scientific expertise

The human capital is centered on deep mRNA expertise, but the company is actively rightsizing this resource. Following cost-cutting measures, Moderna, Inc. announced plans to shrink its global workforce. By the end of 2025, the company expects to employ fewer than 5,000 colleagues, down from roughly 5,800 at the end of 2024. This reduction is part of a strategy to focus R&D spend on the most promising late-stage assets, aiming for up to 10 product approvals through 2027. The remaining team is highly specialized, focusing on advancing candidates like the CMV vaccine (mRNA-1647) and the personalized cancer therapy intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) in partnership with Merck.

  • R&D Expense Reduction Target: $1.1 billion reduction in annual R&D expenses by 2027.
  • Pipeline Focus: Advancing five respiratory vaccines and five non-respiratory pivotal stage programs by 2027.
  • Workforce Goal: Fewer than 5,000 global employees by year-end 2025.

Finance: model the impact of the $1.5 billion, 3-year cost-cutting plan on Q4 2025 OpEx by next Tuesday.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core reasons why customers choose Moderna, Inc. over alternatives, which is crucial as the company pivots hard from its pandemic-era revenue. The value here is rooted in the platform itself, not just one product.

Rapid development cycle for new vaccines and therapeutics.

Moderna, Inc.'s platform technology is designed for speed, which translates directly into value by potentially getting novel treatments to patients faster. While the company is now prioritizing, the pipeline depth shows this capability. As of early 2024, Moderna, Inc. had 45 therapeutic and vaccine programs in development, with nine of those in late-stage development. The company has set an ambitious target to deliver up to 10 product approvals over the next three years. This speed is being applied to high-need areas; for instance, the investigational therapeutic for Methylmalonic acidemia (mRNA-3705) had its pivotal study design agreed upon with the FDA, with a registrational study expected to start in the first half of 2025.

High efficacy and protection from approved respiratory vaccines.

For respiratory threats, the value proposition is proven protection, especially against severe outcomes. For the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine formulations, effectiveness against hospitalization among immunocompetent adults aged $\ge 65$ years was estimated between 45% and 46% in one network, a median of 60 days post-vaccination. For the latest 2025-2026 season, the updated Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE vaccines target the LP.8.1 Omicron strain. Furthermore, the standalone flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, showed a 26.6% superior relative vaccine efficacy compared to a licensed standard-dose seasonal influenza vaccine in adults aged $\ge 50$ years based on Q2 2025 Phase 3 data. This superiority in immunogenicity is a clear differentiator.

Combination vaccines (e.g., COVID-19/Flu) for simplified patient delivery.

Simplified delivery is a major convenience factor, and market research suggests around two-thirds of people are likely to prefer a combination product over getting separate shots. Moderna, Inc.'s mRNA-1083, the flu/COVID combination shot, is a prime example of this value. However, the path to market has required more data; the company withdrew its initial application after the FDA requested Phase 3 efficacy data, pushing the targeted approval date for older adults back into 2026. The company has deprioritized development for younger adults (aged 18 to 49 years) as part of its cost-cutting focus.

Potential to address high unmet needs in oncology and rare diseases.

The platform's flexibility allows Moderna, Inc. to target diseases with few or no existing treatments. This focus is reflected in R&D spending; for example, R&D investment in 2024 exceeded $4.5 billion, with increased investment noted in the norovirus and oncology programs. Key oncology candidates include mRNA-4157 (intismeran autogene) and the checkpoint therapy mRNA-4359, which was recently added to Phase 2 development. The company is looking to invest revenue from its seasonal vaccine franchise into these areas to set the stage for growth in 2027 and 2028.

Platform technology that is definitely scalable across multiple diseases.

The core value is the underlying mRNA platform, which is inherently scalable across diverse therapeutic areas, including infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and autoimmune diseases. To fund this broad pipeline advancement while navigating a revenue transition-with 2025 projected revenues narrowed to a range of $1.6 - $2.0 billion-Moderna, Inc. has implemented strict financial discipline. The company improved its 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses to a range of $5.2 - $5.4 billion and targeted a $1.0 billion reduction in 2025 cash costs. The expected year-end cash balance for 2025 is projected to be between $6.5 - $7.0 billion, providing the financial runway to scale the platform.

Here's a quick look at the financial context supporting this pipeline investment as of late 2025:

Metric Value (Late 2025 Projection/Q3 Actual)
2025 Projected Full-Year Revenue (Narrowed) $1.6 - $2.0 billion
Q3 2025 COVID Vaccine Sales $971 million
2025 Projected Year-End Cash Balance $6.5 - $7.0 billion
2025 Projected R&D Expenses $3.6 - $3.8 billion
2024 Total R&D Investment Exceeding $4.5 billion
Targeted 2025 Cash Cost Reduction $1.0 billion

The platform's scalability is also evident in its approved products, which now include the RSV vaccine mRESVIA®, approved for individuals aged 18-59 years at increased risk, expanding on the initial approval for adults $\ge 60$ years old.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

You're looking at how Moderna, Inc. manages its relationships with the entities buying and using its mRNA products as of late 2025. It's a mix of direct government deals and working through the established healthcare system.

Dedicated account management for government and institutional contracts

Moderna, Inc. maintains significant relationships with large governmental and supranational bodies to secure large-volume commitments. These relationships are critical for pipeline stability, especially as COVID-19 vaccine sales normalize.

Recent contract activity highlights this focus:

  • Secured a contract with the European Union (EU), Norway, and North Macedonia for up to 146 million doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.
  • This EU agreement runs for a period of up to four years.
  • The U.S. government awarded $176 million in July 2024 to develop an mRNA bird flu pandemic vaccine.
  • As of March 31, 2025, The Vanguard Group owned 40.4 million shares of Moderna, indicating deep institutional interest.

The company is actively managing its pipeline execution to meet these partners' needs, anticipating milestones across 10 prioritized programs, including up to three potential 2025 approvals and six registrational data readouts.

High-touch scientific engagement with key opinion leaders and researchers

Scientific engagement drives future revenue, focusing on advancing the pipeline through clinical trials and partnerships. This high-touch approach is necessary for complex therapeutic areas like oncology.

Key data points reflecting this scientific focus include:

Program/Metric Status/Value
R&D Expenses (Q2 2025) $700 million, a 43% reduction year-over-year
Personalized Cancer Therapy (intismeran autogene) Pivotal Studies Three Phase III studies underway with Merck
CMV Vaccine (mRNA-1647) Data Analysis Expected final analysis before the end of 2025
Total Prioritized Programs 10 programs with anticipated milestones

The focus is shifting to non-seasonal launches to diversify from the COVID-19 business.

Hybrid B2B2C model via healthcare systems for patient access

Moderna, Inc. relies on healthcare systems to deliver its vaccines to the end patient, a B2B2C structure. The success of new products depends on their ease of use within these systems.

Product commercialization updates show the current state of this relationship:

  • Moderna, Inc. has three commercial products with full FDA approvals as of Q3 2025.
  • The RSV vaccine, mResvia, saw initial uptake that was weaker than expected.
  • The next-generation COVID vaccine, mNexspike, is refrigerator-stable, which improves efficiency for providers.
  • The EU contract specifies vaccine delivery in prefilled syringes, which can decrease the risk of administration errors and save time for healthcare providers.

The company projects 2025 revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, largely dependent on these distribution channels.

Public health communication and direct-to-consumer education

As the business adapts to an endemic setting for Spikevax, communication shifts from emergency response to routine public health messaging and product differentiation.

The company is focused on driving sales growth through broader use internationally of its COVID shots, while also advancing combination vaccines like the COVID-19 plus influenza candidate (mRNA-1083).

Moderna, Inc. is working to grow revenue beyond COVID-19, targeting over $1 billion in non-COVID revenue by 2026 if approvals are secured.

Finance: review Q4 2025 marketing spend allocation across endemic vs. pipeline awareness campaigns by end of January.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

You're looking at how Moderna, Inc. gets its products, especially the 2025-2026 Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE formulas, into the hands of patients and governments. It's a mix of direct government deals and traditional pharma routes.

Direct sales to national governments and public health agencies

Direct sales remain a significant channel, particularly for large-volume contracts. For the third quarter of 2025, total COVID vaccine sales reached $971 million, broken down into $781 million from U.S. sales and $190 million from international sales. This contrasts with the first quarter of 2025, where COVID vaccine sales were only $84 million total ($29 million U.S., $55 million international), showing the strong seasonality of this channel. The company has a contract with the European Union (EU) providing participating countries access to up to 146 million doses over a period of up to four years. As of late 2025, Moderna's COVID retail market share in the U.S. stands at 42%.

Pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors globally

For commercial markets, the use of established pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors is key to broad geographic reach. The published list price, or Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC), for the Spikevax® (COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) 2025-2026 Formula is $141.80 per dose, which represents the price Moderna sells the product to these wholesalers before any discounts. This pricing structure applies before any patient-specific insurance adjustments. The company has historically built out its global footprint using distribution service agreements, such as one covering 18 countries in Latin America.

Here's a look at the quarterly revenue split for the COVID vaccine sales in 2025:

Period Total COVID Vaccine Sales U.S. Sales Portion International Sales Portion
Q3 2025 $971 million $781 million $190 million
Q2 2025 $114 million $88 million $26 million
Q1 2025 $84 million $29 million $55 million

Healthcare providers (pharmacies, hospitals, clinics) for patient administration

The final point of administration relies on direct engagement with healthcare settings. The 2025-2026 formula for Spikevax is positioned to be available in pharmacies and care settings across the U.S. in the days immediately following regulatory approval. The company's RSV vaccine, mRESVIA®, which saw minimal sales in Q2 2025, is also targeted for administration through these provider networks.

Commercial infrastructure in key markets like the U.S. and Europe

Supporting these sales channels requires a substantial internal commercial and administrative apparatus. Moderna projects its full-year 2025 Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses to be approximately $1.1 billion. The company's full-year 2025 revenue guidance is split between its key markets, with the U.S. expected to contribute between $1 billion and $1.3 billion, and international markets expected to contribute between $600 million and $700 million. This infrastructure supports the rollout of new products like mNEXSPIKE, which made up 55% of COVID vaccination volume by Q3 2025.

  • Full Year 2025 Projected SG&A Expenses: $1.1 billion.
  • Projected 2025 U.S. Revenue Range: $1.0 billion to $1.3 billion.
  • Projected 2025 International Revenue Range: $600 million to $700 million.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

You're looking at the customer base for Moderna, Inc. as of late 2025, which is clearly shifting from pandemic-era government reliance to a more diversified, seasonal commercial model, though government contracts remain vital for pipeline support.

National Governments and Public Health Agencies (bulk purchasers)

This segment continues to be a major purchaser, often through multi-year agreements that secure supply and support R&D efforts for future threats. For the 2025-2026 respiratory season, the focus is on updated COVID-19 vaccines and pandemic preparedness. For instance, a contract with the European Union, Norway, and North Macedonia allows for the order of up to 146 million doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine over a period of up to four years. Also in 2025, Moderna announced a contract with Brazil to supply 12.5 million COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, the U.S. government, via BARDA, awarded a $176 million contract to accelerate development of an mRNA-based influenza vaccine.

Here's a look at some of the specific government-related supply agreements announced in 2025:

Government/Agency Product/Purpose Quantity (Doses) Date Announced (2025)
European Union, Norway, North Macedonia COVID-19 Vaccine (JN.1 targeting) Up to 146 million January
Brazil COVID-19 Vaccine 12.5 million April
Colombia COVID-19 Vaccine 10 million February
Taiwan COVID-19 Vaccine 5 million February
U.S. Government (BARDA) Influenza Vaccine Development Funding of $176 million July (2024 data cited for context on ongoing support)

Healthcare Systems and Providers (hospitals, clinics)

This segment is crucial for the commercial launch and ongoing uptake of the newer respiratory vaccines, like mRESVIA (RSV vaccine) and the next-generation COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE. The focus here is on working with vaccinators to drive coverage rates. The U.S. commercial strategy for mRESVIA, approved in May 2024, targets the pharmacy segment. For COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S., the majority of contracts are finalized, and the focus is on working with public health officials, health care providers, and pharmacies.

The commercial performance in the third quarter of 2025 shows the current reliance on this channel for the respiratory season:

  • U.S. COVID vaccine sales (Q3 2025): $781 million.
  • International COVID vaccine sales (Q3 2025): $190 million.
  • RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) sales (Q3 2025): $2 million.

Older Adults (60+) and High-Risk Individuals for respiratory vaccines

This demographic is a primary target for Moderna, Inc.'s approved and pipeline respiratory vaccines. The RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, is specifically indicated for adults aged 60 years and older and is approved in approximately 40 countries. For the next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval covers all adults aged 65 and older, as well as individuals aged 12-64 years with at least one underlying risk factor.

Oncology and Rare Disease Patients (future focus for pipeline products)

While current revenue is predominantly from respiratory vaccines, this segment represents the planned future growth engine. Moderna, Inc. aims to deliver up to 10 product approvals by 2027, heavily weighted toward infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases. The company is prioritizing investments in oncology. One rare disease program, Propionic Acidemia (PA), has a Phase II trial that is fully enrolled with 150 patients, with a potential market entry by 2028.

International markets with long-term supply agreements

International markets are transitioning from large advance purchase agreements to a more seasonal commercial model, though long-term strategic agreements are in place. For example, in Q3 2025, international COVID vaccine sales were $190 million. The company expects a financial boost starting in 2026 from long-term partnerships in countries like the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, which are focused on R&D investment and domestic manufacturing. The next-generation COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, has filings targeting 2026 approvals in Australia, the EU, Japan, and Taiwan.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

You're looking at the hard numbers for Moderna, Inc.'s cost base as of late 2025. It's all about managing the transition from peak pandemic spending to a more focused, pipeline-driven structure. Here's the quick math on the major expense buckets for the full year 2025, based on the latest guidance.

The company has been aggressive on cost control, which you can see reflected in the updated full-year projections. For instance, the overall GAAP operating expenses are now expected to be tighter than previously guided.

Expense Category Projected Full-Year 2025 Amount
Research and Development Expenses $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion
Cost of Sales (CoGS) $0.8 billion to $0.9 billion
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses (SG&A) Approximately $1.1 billion
Overall GAAP Operating Expenses (Narrowed Range) $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion

The R&D spend, while still heavy, reflects prioritization. The reduction in R&D expenses from earlier expectations was primarily driven by continued investment prioritization and efficiency gains in the execution of clinical trials.

  • Research and Development Expenses for 2025 are anticipated to be in the range of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion, lowered from prior expectations of $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion.
  • Cost of Sales for 2025 is expected to be in the range of $0.8 billion to $0.9 billion, a reduction from the previous expectation of $1.2 billion.
  • Selling, General and Administrative Expenses are projected to be approximately $1.1 billion for 2025.
  • Capital Expenditures for 2025 are expected to be approximately $0.3 billion.

When you look at the operating expense structure, the narrowing of the overall GAAP operating expenses to $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion shows the impact of the cost efficiency programs underway. This is a key focus area for management right now.

Regarding clinical trial costs and manufacturing capacity utilization, the data points toward active management of these areas. The decrease in R&D expenses, for example, was explicitly linked to timing of trial activities and program wind-downs, which directly impacts clinical trial costs. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the hard numbers for how Moderna, Inc. brings in cash as of late 2025. It's a story of transition, moving from pandemic reliance to a more diversified, seasonal product base, so let's look at the figures from their latest guidance.

The total projected revenue for the full year 2025 has been narrowed to a range of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion. This updated outlook reflects the third quarter results and expectations for the remaining part of the year. This is down from previous guidance that went as high as $2.2 billion.

The current revenue streams are heavily weighted toward their established vaccines, though the mix is shifting. Here is a breakdown of the components driving that 2025 projection:

Revenue Component 2025 Full Year Guidance/Projection Source Data Point (Q3 2025)
Total Projected Revenue $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion Total Revenue: $1.0 billion
U.S. Revenue Guidance $1.0 billion to $1.3 billion COVID Vaccine Sales: $971 million
International Revenue Guidance $600 million to $700 million RSV Vaccine (mRESVIA) Sales: $2 million
Other Revenue (Grants, Collaborations, Royalties) Implied Remainder Other Revenue: $43 million

Product sales from COVID-19 vaccines, which include Spikevax and the newer mNEXSPIKE, still form the bulk of the revenue. For the third quarter of 2025, COVID vaccine sales were $971 million. This is compared to the total net product sales of $973 million in that same quarter.

Sales from the RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, for older adults, are still ramping up and facing competition. In the third quarter of 2025, mRESVIA sales were only $2 million. This figure declined 80% year-over-year in the quarter.

Revenue from non-product sources-grants, collaborations, and royalties-is a smaller, but consistent, stream. For the third quarter of 2025, this 'other revenue' was exactly $43 million.

Future revenue streams are being built now through pipeline execution, with a focus on oncology and rare diseases. While specific 2025 revenue from these areas isn't itemized yet, the potential is significant in later years. For instance, the mRESVIA vaccine, following its expanded approval for at-risk adults aged 18-59, has analyst estimates projecting peak sales of $8 billion to $10 billion by 2029. The company is also advancing other candidates, expecting milestones from:

  • The flu program, which reported positive Phase III efficacy data.
  • The Propionic Acidemia program in Rare Disease, expecting registrational efficacy study data.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.


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