Novavax, Inc. (NVAX): Business Model Canvas [Dec-2025 Updated]

Honestly, if you're tracking Novavax, Inc., you need to see the strategy shift: they are rapidly transforming from a direct seller into a high-margin licensing engine focused on their proprietary tech. After booking $610 million from APA terminations in Q1 2025, the focus is now squarely on partnerships, evidenced by the $225 million in Sanofi milestones year-to-date, which fuels their leaner operating structure. This Business Model Canvas breaks down exactly how they're managing a cost structure guided between $505 million to $535 million for R&D and SG&A while banking on royalties and adjuvant sales to hit their $1,040 million to $1,060 million full-year revenue framework. Let's look at the nine blocks defining this new, partner-centric Novavax, Inc. reality below.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Key Partnerships

The Key Partnerships block for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) as of late 2025 centers heavily on leveraging its proprietary technology, particularly the Matrix-M adjuvant, through strategic out-licensing and co-development deals. These relationships are crucial for commercial reach and sharing development costs.

Sanofi: Exclusive Commercialization and Combination Vaccine Development

The partnership with Sanofi is central to Novavax, Inc.'s current strategy, especially concerning the lead commercial responsibility for Nuvaxovid in select major markets, including the U.S., starting with the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccination season. Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive royalties on Sanofi sales in the range of the high teens to low twenties percent. This collaboration also includes co-development efforts for a Flu-COVID combination vaccine candidate, which has shown preliminary positive immunogenicity and safety Phase 1/2 data in October 2025 when combined with both Fluzone High-Dose and Flublok.

The financial execution of this agreement has been significant in fiscal year 2025:

Furthermore, Sanofi is covering the majority of costs for a postmarketing commitment study for Nuvaxovid, anticipated to occur during 2025 and 2026, with a total cost between $70 million and $90 million. Sanofi will reimburse approximately 70% of this total, equating to about $55 million.

Serum Institute of India (SII): Global Supply Chain for LMICs

Novavax, Inc. maintains a long-standing manufacturing agreement with the Serum Institute of India (SII) for the development and commercialization of Nuvaxovid in India and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This arrangement was initially set to increase Novavax, Inc.'s manufacturing capacity to over 2 billion doses annually by mid-2021. Novavax, Inc. provides SII with vaccine antigen and Matrix-M adjuvant, and the two entities split the revenue from product sales, net of agreed costs.

For the full year 2025, Novavax, Inc. currently expects to achieve between $35 million and $45 million in Adjusted Supply Sales associated with collaborations that include Serum Institute of India on R21/Matrix-M.

Takeda: Commercialization in Japan

The collaboration and license agreement with Takeda for Nuvaxovid in Japan, the world's third largest pharmaceutical market, was updated in May 2025 to include improved financial terms. These terms provide Novavax, Inc. with:

• An upfront payment.
• A payment related to the 2024/2025 season.
• Annual milestones associated with regulatory approvals.
• Royalties on net sales earned every season moving forward.

A specific milestone payment was triggered by the September 2025 regulatory approval for the Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 Formula targeting SARS-CoV-2 Omicron LP.8.1, for which Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive royalties this vaccination season.

Government Agencies: Pandemic Preparedness

Novavax, Inc.'s technology platform, specifically the Matrix-M adjuvant, is being utilized in government-backed preparedness efforts. Sanofi recently received funding from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, for early-stage work on a pandemic influenza vaccine candidate that incorporates Novavax, Inc.'s Matrix-M adjuvant. Under the expanded agreement with Sanofi, Novavax, Inc. remains eligible for up to $200 million for the first four Sanofi products using Matrix-M, with up to $210 million in milestone payments for each subsequent product, plus ongoing royalties.

Historically, Novavax, Inc. was awarded a contract by BARDA in February 2011 valued up to $179 million for advanced development of recombinant influenza vaccines, with an additional option period funding commitment of $70 million.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Key Activities

Research and Development (R&D) for combination vaccines (Flu-COVID) and pipeline assets.

• R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2025 totaled $98 million.
• R&D transition services expenses reimbursed by Sanofi in the third quarter of 2025 were $46 million, representing approximately 47% of total R&D expenses for the period.
• Sanofi reported preliminary positive immunogenicity and safety Phase 1/2 data for Nuvaxovid in combination with both Fluzone High-Dose and Flublok in October 2025.
• Both the COVID-19-Influenza-Combination and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates showed robust immune responses in an initial cohort of a Phase 3 trial, with new T-cell response data numerically higher than the comparator Fluzone HD arm.
• A study was initiated to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a Subvariant SARS-CoV-2 rS Vaccine Adjuvanted with Matrix-M in adults aged 50 to < 65 years without high-risk conditions.

Strategic management of the Sanofi collaboration and other licensing agreements.

• Novavax achieved $225 million in milestones year-to-date from the Sanofi partnership as of Q3 2025.
• Milestones earned in the fourth quarter of 2025 upon marketing authorization transfers for E.U. and U.S. markets totaled $50 million.
• The May 2025 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Biologics License Application (BLA) approval for Nuvaxovid triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi.
• Novavax is eligible to receive up to $350 million in Phase 3 development and commercial launch milestone payments associated with Sanofi Influenza-COVID-19 combination products.
• The R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, in partnership with Serum Institute of India and Oxford University, had 25 million doses sold since its launch in mid-2024.
• In Q1 2025, Novavax announced material transfer agreements with three pharmaceutical companies to explore the utility of Matrix-M in their portfolios.

The financial structure of the expanded Sanofi collaboration regarding Matrix-M is detailed below:

Manufacturing and supply of Matrix-M adjuvant for internal and partner use.

• Sanofi received funding from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for early-stage work on a pandemic influenza vaccine candidate that includes the Matrix-M adjuvant under Contract 75A50122D00003.
• Matrix-M is used in the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, which sold 25 million doses since mid-2024.
• For each new vaccine using Matrix-M, Novavax is eligible to receive up to $200 million in launch and sales milestones and mid-single digit sales royalties for 20 years.
• Licensing, royalties and other revenues for Q3 2025 totaled $57 million.

Regulatory filings and maintenance for Nuvaxovid in global markets.

• In August 2025, the FDA approved the supplemental Biologics License Application (BLA) for the Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 Formula.
• The August 2025 FDA approval covers active immunization for adults 65 years and older or individuals 12 through 64 years of age with at least one underlying high-risk condition.
• The FDA also approved an extension of the shelf life for the Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 formula from three months to six months.
• The European Commission granted Marketing Authorization for the updated 2024-2025 Nuvaxovid in October 2024.
• Beginning in the third quarter of 2025, Sanofi assumed the lead commercial role for Nuvaxovid in the U.S. and select ex-U.S. markets for the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccination season.

Aggressive cost-reduction and corporate infrastructure streamlining.

• Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $32 million, a 55% decrease from $71 million for the same period in 2024.
• Maryland site consolidation transactions resulted in $60 million in cash proceeds and approximately $230 million in expected future cost savings.
• Full-year projection for combined R&D and SG&A expenses was lowered to the range of $505 million to $535 million.
• As of September 30, 2025, Novavax had $778 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $628 million as of June 30, 2025.
• Novavax raised its Full Year 2025 Adjusted Total Revenue Framework to be between $1,040 million and $1,060 million.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Key Resources

You're looking at the core assets Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is relying on to execute its partnership-focused strategy as of late 2025. These aren't just line items; they are the tangible and intangible foundations supporting their near-term revenue framework.

The most immediate resource is the financial cushion. As of September 30, 2025, Novavax, Inc. reported $778 million in cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and restricted cash. If you look at the total liquidity picture, they ended the third quarter with $812 million when including accounts receivable. This buffer is critical for funding the R&D pipeline while transitioning commercial responsibilities.

The intellectual property underpinning the platform is central. You have two major technology pillars here:

• - Proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant technology platform.
• - Recombinant protein nanoparticle vaccine technology (IP).

The Matrix-M adjuvant technology platform is a proven asset, sustainably harvested from the bark of the soapbark tree (Quillaja saponaria). It is clinically proven to enhance immune responses, allowing for a lower antigen dose while maintaining efficacy. This technology is not just theoretical; it is a key component in two marketed vaccines: Nuvaxovid™ and the R21/Matrix-M Malaria Vaccine. The commercial validation is deepening, too; the expanded license with Sanofi for pandemic influenza candidates using Matrix-M offers Novavax, Inc. the potential for up to $200 million in milestone payments tied to the first four products, plus ongoing royalties.

The recombinant protein nanoparticle vaccine technology forms the antigen delivery system. For instance, the Nuvaxovid™ 2025-2026 Formula uses this method to create copies of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, targeting the JN. 1 variant. This platform is what allows Novavax, Inc. to secure milestone payments, such as the $175 million milestone earned from Sanofi upon the U.S. BLA approval in May 2025.

The physical assets are being streamlined for efficiency. Novavax, Inc. is actively consolidating its manufacturing footprint to support a leaner model. This involved signing agreements to transfer one U.S.-based facility, which is expected to net $60 million in cash payments and generate future cost savings of $230 million over 11 years related to lease and operating costs. Furthermore, the sale of property adjacent to the headquarters is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing in another $20 million.

Here's a quick look at how these key technology assets are being leveraged through partnerships as of late 2025:

Finally, the human capital is specialized, focusing on the core science that underpins these assets. While exact headcount isn't always public, the strategic focus is clear:

• - Specialized R&D talent focused on vaccine discovery and clinical development.
• - Focus on advancing H5N1 avian pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, which showed robust immune responses in non-human primates in July 2025.
• - Preliminary positive data generated using Matrix-M with an oncology vaccine candidate.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core differentiators Novavax, Inc. brings to the table as of late 2025. It's all about the platform and the data supporting it.

Protein-based COVID-19 vaccine (Nuvaxovid) for non-mRNA preference

The recombinant protein approach offers a distinct choice for individuals preferring a non-messenger RNA platform. The 2024-2025 formula targeting the JN.1 strain received U.S. Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization in October 2024. For the full fiscal year 2025, Novavax, Inc. projects Nuvaxovid product sales to reach $610 million. To give you a sense of the revenue mix, Q1 2025 saw Nuvaxovid product sales of $608 million out of total revenue of $667 million, though Q2 2025 product sales were only $11 million of the total $239 million revenue for that quarter. The company's overall Adjusted Total Revenue framework for 2025 is guided between $1,040 million and $1,060 million as of the third quarter report.

Adjuvanted vaccines that elicit a stronger, broader immune response

The value here centers on the Matrix-M adjuvant. It is clinically proven to induce potent, durable and broad immune responses. Data presented at the World Vaccine Congress in 2025 showcased the utility of Matrix-M when co-administered with a broad array of vaccine platforms and diseases. This platform strength underpins key partnership value.

Potential for a single-shot Flu-COVID combination vaccine

Advancing a combination product simplifies vaccination schedules, a clear value driver. Novavax, Inc. began enrolling an initial cohort of approximately 2,000 participants in its Phase 3 trial for the COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) vaccine in late 2024. Results shared in June 2025 showed that the CIC vaccine candidate induced immune responses similar to those of licensed comparators, Nuvaxovid and Sanofi's Fluzone HD, in adults aged 65 and older.

Lower reactogenicity profile compared to some marketed mRNA vaccines

The SHIELD-Utah study provided concrete data on side effect profiles for the 2024-2025 formula versus a marketed mRNA vaccine. Here's a quick look at the comparative systemic symptoms reported:

Overall, Novavax recipients experienced approximately 39% fewer symptoms on average.

Matrix-M as a high-value component for partner vaccine candidates

The Matrix-M adjuvant is a significant revenue driver through licensing. Sanofi amended its collaboration agreement to include Matrix-M in its pandemic influenza vaccine candidate program. Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive up to $200 million for the first four products created by Sanofi utilizing the adjuvant, plus up to $210 million in milestone payments for each product thereafter, along with ongoing royalties. Milestones related to Nuvaxovid BLA approval and marketing authorization transfers have already materialized:

• U.S. BLA Approval Milestone (May 2025): $175 million earned from Sanofi.
• U.S. Marketing Authorization Transfer Milestone (Q4 2025): $25 million earned.
• EU Marketing Authorization Transfer Milestone (Expected Q4 2025): Eligible for $25 million.
• Adjusted Supply Sales for 2025 (e.g., R21/Matrix-M collaboration): Expected between $35 million and $45 million.

The company's Q3 2025 results confirmed that $225 million in milestones from the Sanofi partnership had been achieved year-to-date.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

You're looking at a company that has decidedly pivoted its customer relationship strategy, moving away from direct-to-market sales for its flagship product toward a deep, symbiotic B2B model. This shift is key to understanding Novavax, Inc.'s (NVAX) financial structure as of late 2025.

Strategic, long-term B2B relationship management with major pharma partners (Sanofi)

The relationship with Sanofi is the cornerstone of Novavax, Inc.'s current customer engagement. This co-exclusive licensing agreement, effective for sales starting in 2025, dictates that Sanofi books sales of the adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine worldwide, excluding specific territories. Novavax, Inc. is positioned to receive tiered double-digit percentage royalty payments on these sales, plus milestones. The initial agreement provided an upfront payment of $500 million and up to $700 million in development, regulatory, and launch milestones, totaling up to $1.2 billion. Furthermore, Sanofi took a minority equity investment of <5% in Novavax, Inc.. The partnership deepened with an amendment to include Sanofi's use of the Matrix-M adjuvant in its pandemic influenza vaccine candidate program.

The execution of this partnership drove significant near-term revenue recognition:

• Year-to-date (YTD) through Q3 2025, $225 million in milestones were achieved from the Sanofi partnership.
• This YTD figure includes $50 million earned upon marketing authorization transfers for the U.S. and E.U. markets.
• The E.U. marketing authorization transfer alone triggered a $25 million milestone payment.
• Novavax, Inc. is eligible for an additional $25 million milestone for the U.S. marketing authorization transfer and a $75 million milestone upon completion of the manufacturing technology transfer to Sanofi.
• For Q3 2025, Sanofi-related revenue included $4.2 million in royalties.

High-touch regulatory and clinical support for licensed products

The relationship requires Novavax, Inc. to provide substantial support for the regulatory and clinical advancement of products leveraging its technology, particularly combination vaccines. Sanofi is solely responsible for the development and commercialization of novel flu-COVID-19 combination vaccines using Novavax, Inc.'s COVID-19 vaccine.

Transactional relationship with governments for residual Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs)

The relationship with governmental or global health bodies, primarily stemming from the pandemic era, is now largely transactional, focused on settling past obligations. The 2021 Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, was settled in February 2024.

• Novavax, Inc. made an initial settlement payment to Gavi of $75 million.
• The company agreed to deferred payments of $80 million annually through December 31, 2028, totaling up to $400 million.
• This annual obligation is offset by an $80 million annual vaccine credit for qualifying sales in low- and middle-income countries.
• An additional vaccine credit of up to $225 million is available should there be further demand.
• The recognition of deferred revenue from the Canada APA termination aided YTD 2025 revenue, which reached $976.3 million.
• The Australia APA carries potential refundable amounts up to $92.5 million contingent on meeting specific regulatory and delivery dates.

Partner-centric model, shifting commercial risk and customer interaction to licensees

The core of the current operating model involves shifting commercial execution and associated risk to partners like Sanofi. This is clearly reflected in the revenue mix and operational expense structure as of Q3 2025.

For the third quarter of 2025, total revenue was $70.4 million, but product sales-direct revenue-accounted for only $13.4 million, while partner-related revenue was $57.0 million. Licensing, royalties, and other revenue totaled $57 million in Q3 2025. This reliance on partners is central to the Full Year 2025 Adjusted Total Revenue framework, projected between $1.040 billion and $1.060 billion. The transition of lead commercial responsibility for Nuvaxovid to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season in the U.S. and select ex-U.S. markets exemplifies this risk transfer. This operational shift directly impacted overhead costs; Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses fell 55% year-over-year in Q3 2025 to $32 million, partly due to the elimination of commercial infrastructure. Sanofi also reimburses a significant portion of R&D costs; in Q3 2025, $46 million in R&D transition services were reimbursed by Sanofi, covering approximately 47% of total R&D expenses for the period.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

You're looking at how Novavax, Inc. gets its products and technology to the market as of late 2025. The strategy has clearly shifted to heavily rely on established partners for distribution and manufacturing, which helps manage the company's own commercial footprint.

Partner Commercial Networks: Sanofi's established global distribution channels.

The relationship with Sanofi is central to Novavax, Inc.'s channel strategy for Nuvaxovid. Sanofi took over lead commercial responsibility for the 2025-2026 vaccination season in select markets, including the U.S., starting in 2025. This transition is key to leveraging Sanofi's established global reach for the stand-alone COVID-19 vaccine. For the stand-alone COVID-19 vaccine sales managed by Sanofi, Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive tiered royalty payments in the high teens to low twenties percent. The U.S. Biologics License Application (BLA) approval in May 2025 triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi. Furthermore, Novavax, Inc. is eligible for two separate $25 million milestone payments upon the transfer of Marketing Authorizations for the U.S. and EU markets, expected in Q4 2025. The original licensing agreement provided for an upfront payment of $500 million and up to $700 million in development, regulatory, and launch milestones, totaling up to $1.2 billion.

Licensee Manufacturing: SII, SK bioscience, and Takeda for regional supply.

Regional supply and commercialization are handled through exclusive licensing agreements, which also involve Novavax, Inc. supplying components like the Matrix-M adjuvant. For the Serum Institute of India (SII), this includes supplying the adjuvant for their R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine. Novavax, Inc. projects $35-$45 million in Adjusted Supply Sales for the full year 2025, which covers supplies to SII, SK bioscience, and Takeda. This revenue stream was projected between $20 million to $35 million based on Q1 2025 data. Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which has an exclusive license for Nuvaxovid in Japan, received Japanese regulatory approval for the updated vaccine, triggering a milestone payment to Novavax, Inc.. SK bioscience holds an exclusive license to supply and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine in Korea, and SII has an exclusive license for India.

Here's a look at the projected revenue components from these key regional partners for the full year 2025:

Direct Sales: Limited, residual Nuvaxovid sales in select markets.

The company's direct commercial sales are now quite limited as Sanofi took the lead in major markets. Nuvaxovid Product Sales reported for the first quarter of 2025 totaled $610 million, but this figure was largely comprised of $603 million recognized from the termination of the Canada and New Zealand Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs). For the third quarter of 2025, product sales dropped significantly to $13 million, down from $41 million the prior year. Novavax, Inc. still projects $610 million in Nuvaxovid product sales for the full year 2025, suggesting the bulk of the recognized revenue is from prior commitments rather than current season sales.

Technology Transfer: Licensing of Matrix-M to other pharmaceutical companies.

The Matrix-M adjuvant platform is a significant channel for future revenue through technology licensing. Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive up to $200 million in sales milestones for the first four products Sanofi develops using Matrix-M. For each subsequent product, Novavax, Inc. can earn up to $210 million in milestone payments, plus mid-single digit sales royalties for 20 years. In March 2025, Novavax, Inc. signed an additional Material Transfer Agreement (MTA) for Matrix-M with a top-tier pharmaceutical company. Overall, Novavax, Inc. announced material transfer agreements with three pharmaceutical companies in the first quarter of 2025 to explore the adjuvant's utility.

The Sanofi agreement also grants them a non-exclusive license to use the Matrix-M adjuvant in vaccine products.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

You're looking at the core groups Novavax, Inc. relies on to generate revenue and validate its technology platform as of late 2025. The customer base has clearly shifted from direct-to-consumer sales to a heavy reliance on strategic partnerships, making those partners the primary revenue drivers.

Global Pharmaceutical Companies (e.g., Sanofi) for licensing and co-development represent the most significant segment by current financial impact. The collaboration and license agreement (CLA) with Sanofi is central, focusing on co-commercializing the protein-based, non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and developing combination products. Novavax recognized about $48 million from Sanofi in 3Q25, contributing to a year-to-date milestone achievement of $225 million in 2025 from that partnership alone. This included a $175 million milestone triggered by the U.S. Biologics License Application (BLA) approval in May 2025, and two separate $25 million payments upon the transfer of Marketing Authorizations for the U.S. and EU markets, completed in October and November 2025, respectively. The original May 2024 agreement also provided an upfront payment of $500 million to Novavax, Inc.

This segment also includes developers interested in the adjuvant technology. The partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited in Japan brought a $20 million upfront payment and future royalties. Furthermore, Novavax, Inc. is eligible to receive up to $200 million for the first four products developed by Sanofi utilizing the Matrix-M adjuvant, plus up to $210 million in milestone payments for each product thereafter, alongside ongoing royalties.

The reliance on partners for revenue is clear in the updated 2025 guidance. Novavax, Inc. projects Adjusted Total Revenue of between $1,040 million and $1,060 million, but this figure explicitly excludes Sanofi-related royalties and milestones, showing the core business is being driven by licensing events. The company is also advancing its Matrix-M adjuvant with other developers, as seen by an expanded Material Transfer Agreement with a top-tier pharma company covering viral pathogens.

Patients seeking a protein-based, non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine are the end-users whose demand validates the technology. For the 2025-2026 vaccination season, Novavax, Inc.'s Nuvaxovid™ 2025-2026 Formula received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval on August 27, 2025, making it the only protein-based, non-mRNA option available in the U.S. The approved indication targets individuals 65 years and older, or those 12 through 64 years of age with at least one high-risk underlying condition. Clinical differentiation is a key selling point; preliminary data from the SHIELD-Utah study showed Nuvaxovid recipients experienced approximately 39% fewer reactogenicity symptoms on average compared to a marketed mRNA vaccine.

Governments and Public Health Organizations engage indirectly, primarily through funding their chosen partners who utilize Novavax, Inc.'s technology. Sanofi recently secured funding from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) under Contract 75A50122D00003 to support early-stage work on its pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, which incorporates the Matrix-M adjuvant. This shows government support flowing to the development of next-generation vaccines based on Novavax, Inc.'s platform. Historically, the U.S. government awarded Novavax, Inc. a $1.6 billion contract in 2020 for development and 100 million doses.

Vaccine Developers interested in Matrix-M adjuvant technology form a distinct and growing customer segment, viewing the adjuvant as a standalone asset. The success of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, partnered with the Serum Institute of India, has seen 25 million doses sold since launch. Novavax, Inc. expects $35 million to $45 million in Adjusted Supply Sales for 2025 from collaborations including the Serum Institute on R21/Matrix-M, SK bioscience, and Takeda. The company is also actively expanding this segment, as evidenced by the September 2025 expansion of the Sanofi CLA to include the adjuvant for a pandemic influenza candidate through Phase 2.

Here's a quick look at the financial validation points tied to these customer relationships as of late 2025:

What this estimate hides is that the full-year 2025 revenue framework of $1,040 million to $1,060 million is heavily weighted by these upfront and milestone payments, not recurring product sales, which is a key risk to monitor for 2026 projections.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

You're looking at the core spending areas for Novavax, Inc. as the company pivots hard into an R&D and partnership model. The cost structure reflects this shift, moving away from commercial infrastructure and toward innovation and transition expenses.

The combined operating expenses guidance for the full fiscal year 2025 shows a disciplined approach to spending, even as they invest in the pipeline. Novavax reaffirmed its full year 2025 financial guidance for combined Research and Development (R&D) and Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses to be in the range of $505 million to $535 million; the midpoint of this range is $520 million.

Here's a breakdown of the key cost components based on the third quarter of 2025 results and forward guidance.

• High R&D expenses: Q3 2025 R&D was reported at $98 million.
• SG&A expenses saw a significant reduction, dropping 55% year-over-year to $32 million in Q3 2025.
• Total combined R&D and SG&A expenses for Q3 2025 were $130 million.

The shift in manufacturing and commercial lead to Sanofi is clearly visible in the Cost of Sales line item, which has dropped dramatically.

You also need to account for one-time charges related to restructuring the physical footprint. The October 2025 site consolidation is a major cost event, though it brings future savings. The non-cash charges for Q3 2025 totaled $126 million, which included the $97 million asset impairment for the Maryland site consolidation. This consolidation is expected to generate future cost savings of approximately $230 million over 11 years.

Partner reimbursement costs are a key element that offsets the gross R&D spend. This is essentially a cost recovery mechanism built into the partnership agreements.

• Sanofi R&D reimbursement recognized in Q3 2025 was $46 million.
• The company is conducting a Post-Marketing Commitment (PMC) study for Sanofi, with an expected reimbursement of approximately $55 million (at midpoint) or 70% of total costs across 2025 and 2026.
• Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A guidance for FY 2025, which nets out partner reimbursements, is targeted around the $450 million midpoint.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the core ways Novavax, Inc. brings in cash as of late 2025. It's a model heavily reliant on partnerships now, moving away from direct, large-volume product sales to more structured, high-margin income like milestones and royalties. This shift is key to understanding their current financial health.

• - Licensing and Milestone Payments: Expected to drive revenue, including $225 million in Sanofi milestones year-to-date.
• - Product Sales: Nuvaxovid sales, including $610 million from APA terminations in Q1 2025.
• - Royalties: Tiered royalties on Sanofi's global sales of Nuvaxovid and combination vaccines.
• - Adjuvant Supply Sales: Sales of Matrix-M to partners like Serum Institute and Takeda.
• - Full Year 2025 Adjusted Total Revenue framework is $1,040 million to $1,060 million.

The revenue streams are clearly segmented, reflecting the transition of commercial leadership for Nuvaxovid to Sanofi in select markets, beginning with the 2025-2026 vaccination season. This means Novavax is leaning on upfront payments, milestone achievements, and supply agreements rather than the bulk of the end-user sales.

Milestone payments have been a significant driver, especially following the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the Nuvaxovid Biologics License Application (BLA) in May 2025, which triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi. Year-to-date, Novavax has recognized about $48 million from Sanofi in the third quarter of 2025 alone, contributing to the $225 million in Sanofi-related milestones achieved year-to-date. The total expected U.S. BLA and Marketing Authorizations Milestones are $225 million.

Product Sales, while still important, saw a massive, one-time boost in Q1 2025. Total product sales for that quarter were $622 million, which included $603 million recognized from the termination of the Canada and New Zealand Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs). The Full Year 2025 framework anticipates Nuvaxovid Product Sales totaling $610 million, which incorporates that Q1 APA termination revenue.

Royalties are structured as tiered, double-digit percentages on Sanofi's global sales of Nuvaxovid and future combination products. These are excluded from the Adjusted Total Revenue framework because Novavax relies on Sanofi's sales forecasts for these components. Furthermore, Novavax is eligible for up to $200 million in launch and sales milestones for each new vaccine utilizing the Matrix-M adjuvant, plus mid-single-digit sales royalties for 20 years.

Adjuvant Supply Sales represent the sale of the proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant to partners. For the full year 2025, Adjusted Supply Sales are projected to be between $20 million and $40 million, coming from collaborations with partners including the Serum Institute of India for the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, and others like SK bioscience and Takeda.

Here's a quick look at how the components fit into the overall financial expectation for the year:

The company's overall financial outlook for the year is anchored by this framework. For instance, the Q1 2025 total revenue was $667 million, which significantly exceeded the prior-year period's $94 million. This strong start helped raise the full-year Adjusted Total Revenue guidance to the $1.04 billion to $1.06 billion range. The reliance on these partnership-driven elements means future visibility is tied directly to partner execution, such as Sanofi's commercialization efforts and the progression of combination vaccine candidates.