Breaking Down PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) and seeing a classic energy sector pivot point, so let's cut through the noise: the third quarter of 2025 was tough, but the recent merger changed the whole risk-reward equation defintely. The company reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $325 thousand, a sharp drop from the $2.9 million net income a year ago, with revenue declining to $7.0 million as production dipped to 1,471 BOEPD (Barrels of Oil Equivalent Per Day) due to commodity price pressures and development timing. But here's the quick math: the transformative merger completed on October 31, 2025, is projected to increase their current production to over 6,500 BOEPD, a more than four-fold jump that fundamentally alters their scale and cash flow potential, even as the company maintains a strong balance sheet with $13.7 million in cash and zero debt as of September 30, 2025. This isn't about past performance; it's about whether the new, larger entity can execute on its integration and capitalize on the massive new acreage position, turning that nine-month net loss of $1.86 million into sustainable profit.

Revenue Analysis

You're looking at PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) right now, and the headline is clear: the company is an energy producer, so its revenue is tied directly to commodity prices and production volume. The primary revenue stream for PEDEVCO Corp. is overwhelmingly from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the total sales from these sources were approximately $22.7 million.

What this tells us is that the health of the oil and gas market, especially for crude oil, is the single biggest factor driving their top line. Honestly, for an energy company, that's just how it works. The regional focus is on their assets in the Permian Basin and the Denver-Julesberg (D-J) Basin.

Here's the quick math on how the year has played out so far:

• Q1 2025 Revenue: $8.74 million, up $0.6 million year-over-year.
• Q2 2025 Revenue: $7.0 million, a sharp drop of 41% from Q2 2024.
• Q3 2025 Revenue: $7.0 million, a decrease of 23% from Q3 2024.

The trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue ending June 30, 2025, was $35.33 million, which was a modest increase of 3.93% year-over-year, but the quarterly trend is defintely down. The Q2 and Q3 declines show a real headwind from both lower prices and lower production volumes.

The Shift in Revenue Drivers

The revenue breakdown shows that the company's production is heavily weighted toward liquids-crude oil and NGLs. In Q3 2025, liquids comprised 84% of the total production of 1,471 Barrels of Oil Equivalent Per Day (BOEPD), making them the dominant segment contribution to overall revenue. The significant changes in revenue streams this year are rooted in two key variances: price and volume.

Look at the Q2 and Q3 results to see the risk mapped out:

The average realized sales price per Barrel of Oil Equivalent (Boe) fell from $57.97 in Q3 2024 to $51.46 in Q3 2025, a drop of 11%. What this estimate hides is the potential for a massive near-term change. The company completed a transformative merger on October 31, 2025, which is expected to boost current production to over 6,500 BOEPD. That kind of volume increase, if sustained, will fundamentally alter the revenue profile in Q4 2025 and 2026, assuming commodity prices don't collapse.

For a deeper dive into the company's valuation, read the full post: Breaking Down PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

Profitability Metrics

You need a clear picture of PEDEVCO Corp. (PED)'s ability to turn oil and gas sales into profit, and the latest data from the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) through Q3 2025 shows a split personality. The headline is that the company's cost structure, when viewed on a TTM basis, is exceptionally strong at the top line, but recent quarterly results reveal significant operational challenges that are eating into those gains.

For the TTM period, PEDEVCO Corp.'s Gross Margin stands at a robust 63.55%, which is substantially higher than the industry average of 36.53% for the oil and gas exploration and production sector. This means the company is defintely efficient at managing its direct production costs (Lease Operating Expenses) relative to its revenue. However, the profit story changes dramatically as you move down the income statement.

Here's the quick math on the TTM profitability ratios, comparing PEDEVCO Corp. to its peers:

• Gross Margin: 63.55% (Industry: 36.53%)
• Operating Margin: -9.38% (Industry: 14.65%)
• Net Profit Margin: 28.75% (Industry: 8.91%)

The TTM Net Profit Margin of 28.75% is fantastic, but the negative Operating Margin of -9.38% is a huge red flag. This gap indicates that the company's non-production expenses-like General & Administrative (G&A) and Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization (DD&A)-are disproportionately high, turning a massive gross profit into an operating loss. The positive net margin is likely due to one-time gains or other non-operating income over the TTM period.

Near-Term Profitability Trends and Efficiency

The near-term trend is a clear deterioration. In Q3 2025 alone, PEDEVCO Corp. reported a revenue of only $7.0 million, which is a 23% drop from the same quarter last year. This revenue decline, coupled with rising costs, is the core of the problem. Operational efficiency is suffering.

The Q3 2025 results show a sharp reversal in profitability, moving from a net income of $2.9 million in Q3 2024 to a net loss of $325 thousand in Q3 2025. The operating loss for the quarter was $834 thousand, translating to a quarterly Operating Margin of approximately -11.91%.

This decline maps directly to poor cost management in a challenging commodity price environment. Here's the simple breakdown of operational drag in Q3 2025:

• Revenue fell by $2.1 million year-over-year.
• Total Operating Expenses increased by 12% to $7.8 million.
• The increase in expenses includes a $0.2 million impairment of oil and gas properties.

When revenue is shrinking and operating expenses are rising, you get a negative operating leverage spiral. The company is actively working to change this with its recent October 31, 2025, transformative merger with portfolio companies controlled by Juniper Capital Advisors, L.P., which is expected to increase production to over 6,500 BOEPD and achieve economies of scale. This is the key action to watch; will the merger's scale outweigh the current cost structure issues? For a deeper dive into the company's financial standing, you can read our full analysis at Breaking Down PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Debt vs. Equity Structure

The capital structure of PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) has undergone a radical transformation in late 2025, moving from a virtually debt-free position to one with a significant debt load following a transformative merger. This shift is the single most important factor to consider when evaluating the company's financial risk profile right now.

Prior to the October 31, 2025, merger, PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) operated with remarkable financial conservatism. As of September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), the company reported zero debt and held a cash and cash equivalents balance of $13.7 million. This meant the company's Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio was a pristine 0.00. That's a strong balance sheet.

Here's the quick math on the pre-merger capital structure:

• Total Debt (Short-term and Long-term, Q3 2025): $0.0 million
• Total Shareholder Equity (Approx. Q3 2025): $115.4 million
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.00

The transformative merger, which closed at the end of October 2025, fundamentally changed how PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) finances its growth. The company acquired oil-weighted producing assets and significant leasehold interests, but this came with a new capital structure. The company's total debt is now expected to be approximately $87 million.

To fund this, PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) simultaneously refinanced the acquired companies' debt and preferred equity and executed a private placement of Series A Convertible Preferred Shares, raising $35 million in gross cash proceeds. This dual-pronged approach-taking on new debt while also raising equity-shows a clear move toward a more growth-aggressive, capital-intensive strategy.

What this estimate hides is the immediate jump in leverage. The new pro forma debt of $87 million against the roughly $150.4 million in equity (pre-merger equity plus the new equity raise) puts the new pro forma D/E ratio at approximately 0.58. This is a significant increase, pushing the company's leverage above the industry benchmark.

For context, the average Debt-to-Equity ratio for the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (E&P) industry sits around 0.48. The new ratio of 0.58 indicates PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) is now slightly more leveraged than its typical E&P peer, which is a new risk for investors to consider. This new capital structure is defintely a trade-off: more debt means higher potential returns on equity, but also higher financial risk, especially in the volatile energy market. You can explore this further in our full analysis: Breaking Down PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

The key takeaway is that the company has shifted from a conservative, debt-free model to a leveraged one to finance a major growth and consolidation strategy.

Finance: Monitor the new debt covenants and interest expense on the $87 million debt load, and check the conversion terms of the new preferred shares. The next step is watching the Q4 2025 financials for the first official post-merger balance sheet data.

Liquidity and Solvency

You need to know if PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) can cover its near-term obligations, and the quick answer is yes, but the margin is thin and getting thinner. The company's liquidity position, while still positive, has notably compressed in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to increased spending on its capital drilling program.

As of September 30, 2025, PEDEVCO Corp.'s current ratio-which measures total current assets against total current liabilities-stood at approximately 1.10. This means the company holds $1.10 in short-term assets for every dollar of short-term debt, which is a tight position. The quick ratio (acid-test ratio), which excludes less liquid assets like inventory, was also very close at 1.09, confirming that most of the current assets are already highly liquid.

Here is the quick math on their short-term position, using the Q3 2025 figures:

The working capital trend shows a clear deceleration. Working capital is simply current assets minus current liabilities, and it tells you the cash buffer available for operations. At the end of 2024, PEDEVCO Corp. had a working capital surplus of $6.3 million. By June 30, 2025, this had increased slightly to $7.0 million. But, by September 30, 2025, the surplus had dropped sharply to just $1.5 million. This $4.8 million decrease from the Q2 level is directly tied to an increase in payables and expenses from their capital drilling program. That's a big shift in three months.

Looking at the cash flow statement for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, we see a more nuanced picture. The company generated strong cash from operations, which is always a good sign, but they are spending heavily on growth.

• Operating Cash Flow: Provided $12.905 million. This is up from the $8.547 million provided in the same period a year ago, which is defintely a strength.
• Investing Cash Flow: Used ($5.982 million), which is a significant reduction from the ($22.098 million) used in the prior year. This reflects a lower cash outlay for capital spending on drilling and completion activities this year.
• Financing Cash Flow: Provided $0.139 million, mainly from selling common stock through their ATM (At-The-Market) Offering.

The net result was an increase in cash and restricted cash of $7.062 million over the nine-month period. The biggest strength here is the company's balance sheet structure: PEDEVCO Corp. currently carries zero debt, which is a huge advantage in the volatile energy sector and provides a strong foundation for solvency. Still, the rapid drawdown of working capital indicates that the operational cash flow is being fully absorbed by the capital program, leaving little room for error if commodity prices or production targets miss their mark. For a deeper dive into the company's strategic position, you can read the full post: Breaking Down PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) and wondering if the market is giving you a bargain or setting a trap. Based on the latest data near November 2025, the company looks significantly undervalued against its book value and earnings, but the stock price trend tells a story of recent decline.

The core takeaway is that PEDEVCO Corp. trades at a deep discount on a price-to-book basis, suggesting a potential opportunity for the patient, risk-aware investor, but you must factor in the stock's recent volatility and the oil and gas sector's inherent risks. The market is defintely hesitant right now.

Key Valuation Multiples (2025 Fiscal Year Data)

We use three classic ratios to gauge valuation: Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). These ratios paint a compelling, albeit complex, picture of PEDEVCO Corp.'s current standing. Here's the quick math:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E): The current P/E ratio stands at approximately 5.46. Compare this to the broader Energy sector average, which often sits much higher, and it suggests the stock is cheap relative to its earnings.
• Price-to-Book (P/B): This is the most striking number at just 0.45. A P/B below 1.0 means the stock is trading for less than the value of its net assets (what shareholders would theoretically get if the company liquidated). That's a strong signal of potential undervaluation.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): The ratio is a lean 2.98. This metric, which is better for comparing energy companies because it strips out capital structure and non-cash expenses, is very low and points toward a cheap stock relative to its operating cash flow (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization).

What this estimate hides is the impact of the company's recent merger, which is expected to be transformative, as you can read more about in the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of PEDEVCO Corp. (PED).. The ratios above largely reflect pre-merger operations or initial post-merger financials.

Stock Price Trajectory and Dividend Reality

The stock price trend over the last 12 months has been challenging, which explains the low multiples. The stock has seen a decrease of 34.36% over the last 12 months, with a 52-week range between a low of $0.47 and a high of $1.00. As of mid-November 2025, the price is hovering around $0.57 per share. The recent price action indicates a bearish overall moving average trend, though there are some short-term bullish signals.

When it comes to income, PEDEVCO Corp. is not a dividend play. The company has a dividend yield of 0.00%. There is no current dividend history or payout ratio to analyze, so your return must come entirely from capital appreciation.

Analyst Consensus: Buy Signal Amidst Volatility

Despite the stock's poor performance over the past year, Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. The stock currently holds an average analyst rating of 'Buy'. This consensus is driven by a belief in the company's operational assets and the potential of its recent acquisition activity.

The consensus price target for PEDEVCO Corp. is $1.50, which suggests a massive upside from the current price. However, some recent analyst targets are more conservative, such as $0.85. This range of targets highlights the uncertainty surrounding the timing and magnitude of the company's turnaround post-merger. The market is waiting for the operational results to catch up with the valuation thesis.

Risk Factors

You're looking at PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) right after a major strategic shift, so you need to map the risks of the old operation against the uncertainties of the new, merged entity. The direct takeaway is that while the company took on significant operational and financial risks in Q3 2025, the October 2025 merger with Juniper's portfolio companies is the primary mitigation strategy, but it introduces integration risk.

Honestly, the Q3 2025 financials, which don't reflect the merger, paint a challenging picture. The company reported a net loss of $325 thousand, a sharp drop from a net income of $2.9 million in Q3 2024. This happened because revenue fell to only $7.0 million, missing analyst consensus of $7.62 million, and operating expenses increased by 12% to $7.8 million.

Here's the quick math on the operational slide: production averaged only 1,471 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) in Q3 2025, a 13% decrease year-over-year. This decline was due to the sale of 17 operated wells and natural production declines, which is a structural risk for any energy company.

Operational and Financial Headwinds

The core business risks before the merger were clear and present. The company's Altman Z-Score, a measure of financial distress, was sitting at a concerning 1.18, which technically puts PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) in the distress zone. That's a red flag for potential financial instability, even though the company reported zero debt and a cash position of $13.7 million as of September 30, 2025.

• Commodity Price Volatility: Operating in the energy sector means exposure to fluctuating oil and natural gas prices, which directly impacts their revenue and cash flow.
• Production Decline: Without new development wells coming online, the natural decline curve of existing assets caused a production drop, leading to the operating loss of $834 thousand in Q3 2025.
• Acreage Impairment: The company recorded an impairment of oil and gas properties of $0.2 million in Q3 2025 on undeveloped leases in the D-J Basin, a sign of non-core assets being let go.

Near-Term Strategic Risks and Mitigation

The transformative merger with Juniper Capital is the single biggest factor changing the risk profile, but it's a double-edged sword. The combined entity now has over 6,500 BOEPD of current production, which is a massive scale increase. But still, a merger of this size introduces its own set of risks.

The immediate risk is integration. Combining operations, especially in different regions like the Permian and Rocky Mountain areas, is complex. Management's stated plan is to focus on integrating the recently acquired operations and achieving economies of scale. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises.

For a deeper dive into who is betting on this new scale, you should be Exploring PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Here is a summary of the shifting risk landscape:

The good news is the company has a conservative balance sheet with zero debt heading into this merger, which gives them a cushion to manage integration hiccups. But watch the Q4 2025 report defintely; it will be the first look at the combined entity's performance.

Growth Opportunities

You're looking at PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) right now and seeing a company in the middle of a major pivot, so the future growth story is less about incremental gains and more about a complete strategic transformation. The direct takeaway is that their recent merger has fundamentally reset their operating profile, shifting the focus to high-growth oil-weighted assets in the Rockies, which analysts project will drive a significant revenue rebound in 2026.

Strategic Shift: The Juniper Merger and Rockies Focus

The biggest driver for PEDEVCO Corp. (PED)'s future is the transformative merger with portfolio companies controlled by Juniper Capital Advisors, L.P., which closed on October 31, 2025. This deal immediately repositioned the company as a premier Rockies operator, specifically targeting the Northern D-J and Powder River Basins. This is a classic example of using an acquisition to change the entire asset base and operational scale in one move.

The post-merger production is now over 6,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD), a massive jump that sets the stage for future financial performance. This focus on the Rockies region is strategic, as management believes the well-level economics and drilling inventory there are more attractive than in other areas, like the Permian Basin.

Near-Term Revenue and Earnings Projections

To be fair, the 2025 fiscal year revenue is a mixed picture due to the timing of the merger and pre-merger performance. Analyst consensus for the full-year 2025 revenue is approximately $35.334 million. However, the real story is the expected rebound next year, driven by the new assets.

Here's the quick math on the analyst outlook for 2025 earnings: The average forecast for 2025 earnings is around $5,573,949. This translates to an estimated Earnings Per Share (EPS) of about $0.06. What this estimate hides is the Q3 2025 net loss of $325,000 on $7.0 million in revenue, which was reported just before the merger impact. The growth will be visible in 2026, with revenue next year projected to increase by over 17% to an average of $38.48 million.

• FY 2025 Revenue Estimate: $35.334 million.
• FY 2025 Average Earnings: $5,573,949.
• 2026 Revenue Growth Projection: 17.41%.

Organic Growth and Competitive Edge

The company isn't just relying on the merger; they have a clear organic growth plan. They have 32 wells of varying working interest scheduled for completion in late Q4 2025 and early Q1 2026, which should generate material production growth right away. That's a clear, near-term catalyst for production volume.

Their competitive advantage now centers on their position in the U.S. Rockies, which offers strong well-level economics and a large inventory of remaining drilling locations. Plus, the new strategy explicitly targets 'strategic consolidation' (mergers and acquisitions) in the region, aiming for accretive deals and operational synergies. This suggests a deliberate, aggressive roll-up strategy to build scale. The analyst consensus reflects this positive outlook, with a 'Buy' rating and an average 12-month price target of $1.50.

You can get a deeper understanding of the company's long-term philosophy by reviewing their foundational documents: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of PEDEVCO Corp. (PED).

The shift to a higher-growth, oil-weighted asset base is the defintely the story here.